Paul Daversa, Daversa Partners | Nov. 1, 2010, 2:59 PM | 5,036 | comment 21
San Fran v. NYC

Paul Daversa

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Paul Daversa is the CEO of Daversa Partners, the leading executive search firm to the VC’s and start-up community in the Internet and tech sector.

“What’s the deal flow look like?”"What are you seeing in general?”

“What’s the breakdown of Alley vs Valley deals you’ve been contacted on?”

“What themes and patterns are developing?”

These are the typical questions we get from the VC’s, Angels, Founders, and Executives with whom we work.

The questions seem to be coming much more frequently these days.

Daversa Partners is a leading executive search firm focused on building teams for venture backed, emerging growth companies. We have 40 people in the firm and offices on both coasts.

Until mid-2009 Silicon Valley had dominated our attention and dwarfed the sheer number of companies we have recruited talent for by a 4-1 ratio, driven by breakaway consumer internet businesses as well as the emergence of the cloud based offerings. The big location question used to be San Jose or San Francisco, the valley or the city.

With our good fortune of being able to work with great venture firms and great entrepreneurs, we are often one of the first calls when people need to build leadership teams — thus we become an interesting barometer for the ebbs and flows of industry trends. The most glaring observation over the last year has been that, for the first time in my 20 years of search, the deal flow and investment lines have begun to blur as NY has become a hot-bed for building great tech companies and leadership talent is migrating to New York.

Silicon Valley will maintain its undisputed grip on engineering talent, overall thought leadership and sheer volume of innovation. There is no arguing that point. The depth of the talent pool in the Bay, especially in product and engineering seems almost unfathomable.

But here’s is what has changed: more than any time in recent history I am seeing a migration of talented engineering and operating executives leaving the Bay area and other parts of the country to lead NY companies. As a matter of fact, it seemed commonplace to hear “NFW” when talking to Valley execs as recently as 18 months ago when called about a NY opportunity.

Now we expect the receptivity! There is no doubt that the burst of NY’s momentum is being fueled by signs of life from Madison Avenue and large brands that dominate the East Coast. There is also a newfound energy that is serving as the shot in the arm of vitamin B to Silicon Alley investors and start-up…a signal that Silicon Valley’s birthright and mecca of professions is being threatened (or least facing some viable competition).

Here’s the most telling statistic for us; at least 50 percent of all the projects we do–and we get our share of the plum projects–are coming out of New York.  The challenge used to be that NY was viewed as a one hit wonder…if a candidate moved to NY then they knew they would have to consider moving again for that next job. And, even if the candidate did really think about the move, the idea of having to build his/her team was a major issue.

Some of our recent  projects have included multiple senior hires for Zynga (CA), CFO of Twitter(CA), CEO of Recycle Bank (NY), CFO of Gilt.com (NY), CEO of Mozilla (CA), CEO of Buywithme.com (NY), SVP of Rockyou (CA), CTO of AOL (NY), VP Engineering Boxee (NY), CEO of Grockit (CA), President of Drop.io (NY), President of Knewton (NY) and CTO of Renttherunway.com (NY), and CMO of The Ladders.com (NY).

What is telling about the NY projects is the infusion of Silicon Valley executives as well as other executives from other locations that often flock to the bay.  Gilt’s CFO and President of Stores, Buywithme.com’s CEO and CTO, and Renttherunway’s CTO were either West Coast recruits or from other locations in the country.

In a recent Daversa Speaker Series (a fireside chat we have monthly with industry leaders and innovators), Ron Conway of SV Angels and legendary Angel investor disclosed that 25 percent of his current portfolio of investments are now in NY — up from 5 percent just two years ago. NY has regained some of its swagger thanks to companies like Gilt.com that picked up where Doubleclick left off, setting in motion an ecosystem being developed around the 5th Avenue and Madison Avenue beachheads of advertisers, brands and buyers.

The big question remains: can NY create 2nd and 3rd generation legacy much like executives at Google, eBay and Paypal that have been a part of the Web 3.0 emergence? The theory would go that, as NY companies continue to scale, those companies will create the next generation of innovators. As Gilt, Foursquare, TheLadders, Etsy or Boxee (or whomever the winners will be) grow, employees from these companies will branch out to form new ventures.  No longer does great talent have to think of NY as a one hit wonder.  The talent pool will grow exponentially over the next 3-5 years. And NY will find itself as the definitive “other” market where great US tech companies are born.

The prevailing theme is that the Valley vs. Alley dogfight is in its early stages and given that there is a flurry of high quality start-ups germinating at a frenzied pace on both coasts, we are already seeing the stepped up and accelerated decision making being made to lock down talent.  So, the recruiting won’t get any easier, but the once scoffed at idea of moving to NY to run tech companies will be replaced by the idea that any good exec will have to have NY on their radars.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-alley-tech-talent?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Silicon+Alley+Insider+Select&utm_campaign=SAI_Select_110210#ixzz1483HVi3H

Posted by: Patrick | October 25, 2010

TwistImage.com: Being A Twitter Snob Is A Good Thing

October 24, 2010 2:07 PM

Mitch Joel – Six Degrees of Separation

It annoys many people when they follow you on Twitter and you do not follow them back. Too bad. Don’t do it.

The only people you should follow on Twitter are people who are immediately interesting to you or people who might become interesting to you. Ignore the rest. I know, this doesn’t sound very “social media,” but it’s true and it’s a needed commodity in a cluttered world (you can read more about why you should be a Twitter Snob right here: The Trouble With Twitter – Confessions Of A Twitter Snob and, if that doesn’t get you re-thinking your Twitter strategy, read this: The Dirty Little Secret Of The Twitter Elite). You may think that this reasoning is anti-Social Media or that by not following someone back, you will be insulting them, but if you read the Blog post, The Dirty Little Secret Of The Twitter Elite, you’ll understand that even though they may be following you back, they’re probably filtering you and/or ignoring you.

But, there’s a better reason to not follow back everyone who is following you on Twitter.

Here’s a real-life example: the other day, Alistair Croll recommended I check out Tim Carmody on Twitter. Tim has a cool Blog called, Snarkmarket, and is a contributor to Wired. He has 2,221 followers but only follows 414 people. I wasn’t immediately struck by Tim’s Twitter feed, so I looked at some of the people he was following and I could not believe the quality of people he is connected to. What really shocked me is how few of those people I was following. I hit the Twitter equivalent of pay-dirt.

Who you follow adds to your credibility.

One of the better ways to understand the type of person you are considering to follow is to see who they are following. What interests them? Who piques their curiosity? It’s an amazingly powerful barometer to learn and understand more about the person you are about to connect to. In this instance, Carmody gained instant credibility with me. He was following people that I wanted to follow… and these were people that I hoped would find me interesting enough to follow me back as well.

What does following everybody back actually say about you?

If you follow everybody back on Twitter does that mean that you’ll accept to connect to everybody? Or, does that mean that you have your Twitter feed automated to accept everybody? Does it mean that you don’t care who you follow back? Does it mean that you care so deeply about people that you must follow everybody back? It’s hard to tell… and because it’s hard to tell, it doesn’t ever feel like it matters, or that you care all that much, in the end.

Those who are more selective add value for the new people coming along.

Curating, editing and pruning who you follow is an important step. It helps those new connections sort the wheat from the chaff. It helps quantify that you’re in this to really connect. It also sets a standard that you’re not going to accept the smart people and the spammers as the same. It says that you’re going to take the time (at least a second) to ensure that you’re following someone of value. That sounds better than following everyone and giving off the allure of being social, when in reality you’re probably filtering them out and not helping the next person who connects with you to better understand what interested you (granted, if you’re a brand – or a corporate account – none of this applies: why not follow back everybody who is following you?).

So, what’s your take on being a Twitter snob?

Interesting read… Part of the GOP’s problem has been its too cozy support of “crony capitalism” rather than true free market enforcement of competitive measures at every level. I think the only thing Big Business has to fear from the Tea Party is their equal disdain for both political and business corruption through the levers of the Federal Gov’t. What say you??

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Cover Story October 13, 2010, 11:00PM EST
The Tea Party’s small-government slogans may be appealing, but its policies could throw the U.S. economy into chaosBy Lisa Lerer and John McCormick

Nikki Haley is almost everything the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce could want in a candidate for governor: A former small business owner (she helped run her family’s luxury-clothing company in Lexington, S.C.), Haley has served on the boards of two local chambers and campaigns on the traditional business gospel of lower taxes and smaller government.

As Haley was steaming toward an easy win in the Republican primary runoff last June, the South Carolina Chamber’s board—56 business leaders representing sectors ranging from banking to health care to construction—met at Clemson University to decide whether to endorse her or her general election opponent, Vincent Sheheen, a Democratic state senator. It took only 20 minutes around a U-shaped conference table for the board to make its decision: Almost 80 percent of members voted for the Democrat—even though they knew Haley was a virtual lock to become the next governor of their heavily Republican state.

The issue, as the board saw it, was Haley’s extreme and inflexible approach, an ideology of confrontation that can be summed up in two words: Tea Party. Haley had allied herself with this grassroots network of self-described mad-as-hell revolutionaries, which has overrun the GOP—sending at least 14 Senate candidates, including challengers and incumbents allied with the movement, into the Nov. 2 elections—while accusing other Republicans of abandoning conservative tenets. Haley became one of Sarah Palin’s “Mama Grizzlies”; the former Alaska governor and Tea Party celebrity endorsed her in May.

For business leaders who prize pragmatism and stability, it was all too much. “We worried about her ability to get along with the legislature,” says Otis Rawl, chief executive officer of the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce. “We wanted to bring the debate away from the Tea Party and back to the middle.” Chamber members, he says, tend to be “more realistic and moderate in their thought processes. We prefer candidates who are not extreme. If you look at the Tea Party, I think most of them would say they hate Big Business.”

Austerity Appeal

To businesspeople concerned about the 9 percent increase in federal spending under President Barack Obama and the Democratic-controlled House and Senate, a Tea Party-led return to fiscal austerity has undeniable appeal. That’s certainly what the leaders of this anarchic, decentralized movement are selling. Tea Party principles, Palin told Bloomberg Businessweek in a brief interview on Sept. 11 in Wasilla, Alaska, are “exactly what we need for free enterprise and business in America because these are commonsense solutions. It’s just getting back to the basics, realizing that growing government—and reaching into our private sector by government—is not the solution. That has been proven throughout eternity.”

There’s no such thing as the Tea Party platform; in the absence of centralized leadership, Tea Party-backed candidates have come up with an array of positions based on the doctrine of less intrusive government. Most say they would preserve the Bush tax cuts, end the estate tax, and lower taxes on savings and dividends. They’d repeal the federal health-care reform law, abolish the Federal Reserve, and shrink or shutter a range of other federal agencies. They are not numerous or popular enough to enact all of these positions; less than three weeks before the midterm elections, the Cook Political Report rates Tea Party candidates in three Senate races—Nevada, Colorado, and Kentucky—as “toss-ups.”

To measure the Tea Party’s success by who wins on Nov. 2, however, is to miss the movement’s full impact. Through a combination of brilliant politics, genuine discontent, and intense emotional appeals, the Tea Party has helped pull national Republican leaders such as John McCain to the right, and has defeated those—such as Lisa Murkowski in Alaska and Bob Bennett in Utah—who didn’t move quickly enough. Its impact on the local level has been similarly dramatic. In May the historically moderate Maine Republican Party adopted a platform that included such Tea Party planks as eliminating the Federal Reserve, sealing the borders, and prohibiting stimulus funding.

It may sound like a corporate dream come true—as long as the corporation in question doesn’t have international operations, rely on immigrant labor, see the value of national monetary policy, or find itself in need of a subsidy to boost exports or an emergency loan from the Fed to survive the worst recession in seven decades. Business leaders who favor education reform, immigration reform, or investment in infrastructure can likely say goodbye to those ideas for the short term as well; they won’t be possible in the willfully gridlocked world of the coming 112th Congress.

Political Instability

As the South Carolina Chamber realized, the Tea Party’s seductive small-government principles are hitched to a train full of explosive cargo—from Alaska’s U.S. Senate candidate, Joe Miller, who suggested Social Security is unconstitutional, to Delaware’s U.S. Senate candidate, Christine O’Donnell, who has no relevant job experience. (She’s a former sexual morality campaigner and perennial candidate who at times has had no visible means of support, and who once claimed to possess classified information that China was planning to take over the U.S.) The Tea Party’s brand of political nitroglycerin, in short, is too unstable for businesses that look to government for predictability, moderation, and the creation of a stable economic environment. “A lot of the agenda is being driven by the extremes,” says John Castellani, the former head of the Business Roundtable who left in July to take the helm of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA). “This kind of extremism makes it much harder to plan from a business perspective.” (So far this election cycle, PhRMA’s political action committee has sent about three-quarters of its campaign contributions to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.)

Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the biggest-spending business lobby and a vociferous opponent of the Obama Administration, has kept its distance from many Tea Party candidates. The Chamber, which has been the target of White House attacks over undisclosed campaign expenditures, says it plans to spend at least $75 million in this election cycle. So far, most of the money has gone to Republicans not closely associated with the Tea Party, such as former Hew�lett-Packard (HPQ) Chief Executive Officer Carly Fiorina in California and former U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman in Ohio. The Chamber has endorsed Rand Paul, the Tea Party-backed U.S. Senate candidate in Kentucky, and former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, an early Tea Party favorite who is running for the U.S. Senate in Florida and is distancing himself from his Tea Party roots. The Chamber evaluates each Tea Party candidate individually, says national political director Bill Miller, because “all of our friends have different characteristics.” Miller expects that the Tea Party candidates who win will be forced to moderate some of their views. “Some of the politics of the Tea Party and legislative practicalities just don’t match up,” he says.

Consider three prominent Tea Party politicians: Palin, Paul, and South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, whose endorsements and campaign contributions have made him a kingmaker on the right. All say they support lower taxes, less regulation, and smaller government. Yet they have divergent and at times inconsistent ideas about how to achieve those goals. As governor of Alaska in 2007, Palin raised taxes on oil companies to increase revenues for her state. DeMint celebrates governmental gridlock, telling Bloomberg Businessweek his business supporters call it “the best thing that could happen for business.” He says he wants to deport all illegal immigrants, and he opposed the $700 billion bailout of the financial system in 2008.

Paul is among those who want to abolish the Federal Reserve and the IRS. He would have let the U.S. auto�makers fail last year—a position with ramifications not only for car companies and parts makers but also for agriculture, mining, and other industries dependent on government support. Paul describes Medicare as an unsustainable boondoggle, though about half his income as a Kentucky ophthalmologist comes from Medicare and Medicaid payments, according to his campaign, which says that’s in line with the national average for eye doctors. Last year, Paul advocated a $2,000 deductible for Medicare patients, which would shift more of the cost burden to retirees, though he’s retreated from that idea in recent days. Locked in a close race against state Attorney General Jack Conway, he has been sounding more like a conventional politician, focusing his rhetoric on Obama instead of the Tea Party. On Oct. 9 he thanked “the guy in the White House” for making “this election juggernaut possible.”

Opposition Force

Ask Bill Miller of the U.S. Chamber what his 98-year-old group likes best about the Tea Party, and his reply is blunt: its opposition to the White House agenda, particularly health care, climate change legislation, and phasing out tax cuts for the wealthy. “What they are for is important,” he says, “but what they are against is almost more important.”

That oppositional force—against Obama, against bailouts, against spending and regulation—attracted conservative political and business leaders to the Tea Party from the unlikely moment it came into being. Its date of birth is usually given as Feb. 19, 2009, a time when the Great Recession was still in its most frighteningly vertiginous phase. That morning, CNBC on-air editor Rick Santelli, who reports from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), unleashed a rant heard ’round the world, asking why Americans should have to “subsidize the loser’s mortgages” by propping up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A few traders around him began cheering. “We’re thinking about having a Chicago tea party in July,” Santelli continued. “All you capitalists that want to show up at Lake Michigan, I’m going to start organizing.”

It was enough to light the fuse. As local activists began using the Internet as an organizing tool, Fox News amplified the discontent on its airwaves, with on-air personalities Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity rushing to the front of the Tea Party parade, adopting the nascent movement as their own. Other journalistic organizations took notice during the summer of 2009, when House passage of the Waxman-Markey climate and energy bill and congressional debate over health-care reform unleashed more conservative anger and activists began disrupting town hall meetings held by members of Congress.

Business leaders began trying to direct the parade as well. A libertarian nonprofit called FreedomWorks, which grew out of Citizens for a Sound Economy, a group founded in 1984 by billionaires Charles and David Koch—the brothers who control Wichita-based petroleum conglomerate Koch Industries, the second-largest privately held company in the U.S., according to Forbes—had been holding annual antitax rallies throughout the 1990s with little to show for it. Now a true grassroots movement was spreading, and FreedomWorks wanted to channel it.

Armey’s Team

The nonprofit, chaired by former House Republican leader Dick Armey, began holding training sessions for Tea Party activists, and a FreedomWorks volunteer, Bob MacGuffie, reportedly circulated a memo with tips—”You need to rock-the-boat early in the Rep’s presentation”—for those who wanted to disturb town halls. With Beck and others, the organization helped shape an emerging Tea Party cosmology in which Big Government and Big Business are twin poles of an evil empire plotting to destroy free enterprise and screw the little guy.

“Big Business is sitting there on fat, pushy duffs looking for government to keep them in business,” said Armey in an August interview with Bloomberg Businessweek. Only “incompetent” companies needed bailouts, he added. “People who run corporations are basically taking care of themselves. They’re not very reliable people, and they’re very comfortable with Big Government that greases the skids for them.”

During his 18 years as a congressman from Texas, from 1985 to 2003, Armey accepted more than $900,000 in contributions from financial, insurance, and real estate companies, according to Federal Election Commission records, and almost $400,000 from energy and natural resources companies. After leaving office he joined DLA Piper, one of the largest law firms in the world, and became chairman of FreedomWorks. Armey says he left Piper last year after the rowdy demonstrations at town hall meetings brought unwanted media attention to the firm.

FreedomWorks says it plans to spend $10 million turning local Tea Party chapters into political machines. The group is steering funds into tools that help local groups organize, such as campaign flyers and signs, a phone system that lets volunteers across the country make calls for candidates from their computers, and an online mapping system to target likely voters.

Operating those tools are conservatives like Ryan Hecker, a Houston antitrust attorney who worked as a senior researcher for Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 Presidential campaign. Hecker moved into grassroots organizing after the election. “I got involved in political and economic conservative causes because I wanted to be part of something greater than myself,” he says. In September 2009, Hecker and other Tea Party activists organized an online effort that became the “Contract from America,” a list of 10 Tea Party goals—slashing the size of government, repealing the health-care reform law, blocking a cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and scrapping the IRS code and replacing it with a single-rate code no longer than 4,543 words, the length of the original U.S. Constitution. Over a period of several months in late 2009 and early 2010, he says, they gathered 1,000 ideas online and held a series of surveys and discussions to winnow the list to 21. About 500,000 Web votes were cast to arrive at the final 10 items.

Published in April 2010, the Contract from America creates what Armey calls a “seal of approval” for Tea Party candidates. There are obvious similarities between the Contract and the anti-regulatory wish list of libertarian David Koch, who is among the nation’s 10 wealthiest Americans, according to Forbes, with a net worth of $21.5 billion. Yet Koch has distanced himself from the Tea Party in media statements, and a Koch Industries spokeswoman, Missy Cohlmia, says Koch’s foundations don’t fund FreedomWorks, though “we applaud anyone willing to advance economic freedom and opportunity in a civil and respectful manner.” (The Koch brothers have supported an affiliated pro-Tea Party group, Americans for Prosperity.) “We live by the creed ‘hard work beats daddy’s money,’ ” Armey says. “We are not a corporately well-funded operation, as we are alleged to be.” Hecker says FreedomWorks helped with publicity but didn’t shape the Contract. “This is a grassroots document,” he says. More than 300 candidates have signed it, including about 15 House incumbents. “We’re looking for candidates who truly believe in the ideology,” he says.

Ideological Purity

Confirmation of the Tea Party’s power came in January 2010, when Republican Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat once held by the late Edward M. Kennedy. Rand Paul’s May primary win in Kentucky, over a candidate backed by the state’s Republican Establishment, added to the momentum, as did primary victories by Tea Party-backed Senate candidates Sharron Angle in Nevada, Ken Buck in Colorado, and Miller in Alaska.

The movement’s energy could help boost Republican turnout, but it has also forced the party to spend time and money on primary contests in which inexperienced candidates—Angle, O’Donnell—have jeopardized Republican control of Congress. Despite her call to privatize Social Security, Angle is in a virtual tie with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and has raised an astonishing $14 million in the past three months. If Republicans fail to win the congressional majorities that seemed within reach earlier this year, she and other Tea Party candidates may take the blame.

To the movement’s true believers, however, winning is less important than ideological purity. “We need people up here who understand that we’ve got to get back to limited government, and we cannot afford to have other Republicans who don’t get that message,” DeMint said recently on Capitol Hill. One cornerstone of their faith—the notion that large corporations are leeches sucking the blood of the people—is sharply at odds with Republican theology that has held sway for generations. “The business community writ large is the essence of the inside-the-Beltway type,” says lobbyist Rich Gold, who represents Dow Chemical (DOW), Next�Era Energy (NEE), and other energy companies. “And these people are the essence of the outside-the-Beltway type.”

The Tea Party’s chief theologian is Beck, the cable-TV personality whose rise has mirrored the movement’s. Beck’s world is full of demons, but the devil that enraged the sold-out crowd in a ballroom at the Atlantic City Hilton on Aug. 5 wasn’t Obama or even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “Give the money to the people!” Beck shouted to a packed room of around 1,500. “Give us our money back—not to Goldman Sachs! (GS)”

Intellectual Leader

In 2009 a campaign by the liberal group Color of Change confronted Beck’s advertisers with clips of the TV host making racially charged statements on his show. In July 2009, for instance, he called Obama a “racist” with a “deep-seated hatred for white people or the white culture.” According to the group, more than 100 companies joined a boycott of his show last year. Beck declined to be interviewed; Fox News has said it didn’t lose revenue because advertisers shifted to other programs.

Tea Party activists describe Beck as the intellectual leader of their movement. They devour the books he mentions on his show, many of them the works of fringe political theorists such as W. Cleon Skousen, an anticommunist historian too extreme for conservative activists of the Goldwater era. In The Five Thousand Year Leap, published in 1981, Skousen argued that business, communists, and government were conspiring to push the U.S. into “a world-wide collectivist” society. After Beck authored a new foreword to the 30th anniversary edition, the book shot to the top of the Amazon.com best-seller list. “Beck is the great educator,” says Representative Jason Chaffetz, a Utah Republican allied with the Tea Party. “He’s empowering people with history and information.”

The conspiratorial message was still fairly novel in 2009, when a group of corporate leaders led by General Electric (GE) CEO Jeffrey Immelt came out in support of the Waxman-Markey climate bill, which would cap industrial emissions that contribute to global warming. As Beck led the charge against the corporations, calling them Enron-style favor-seekers, Republican leaders in Congress found themselves attacking not only GE but also DuPont (DD), Alcoa (AA), Duke Energy (DUK), and other stalwarts of the U.S. economy. “Corporations should not be at the public trough,” says DeMint. “We do not need corporations or their associations selling out just because they can get a little carve-out in some bill.”

In June the Tea Party-affiliated National Center for Public Policy Research demanded Immelt’s resignation, calling GE an “opportunistic parasite feeding on the expansion of government.” Immelt’s offenses included lobbying for a $450 million earmark to fund an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter engine, taking advantage of federal subsidies for clean energy, and running the conglomerate that owned liberal cable channel MSNBC.

Contradiction Among Supporters

Americans who support the Tea Party brim with contradiction. An October Bloomberg National Poll found that while 83 percent of Tea Party supporters favor repeal of the health-care reform bill, majorities would keep key provisions of it. Fifty-seven percent would prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage to patients with preexisting conditions, 52 percent would add more prescription drug benefits for Medicare users, and 53 percent would require states to set up plans for people with major health problems. “The ideas that find nearly universal agreement among Tea Party supporters are rather vague,” says pollster J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the survey. “You would think any idea that involves more government action would be anathema, and that is just not the case.”

Tea Party candidates show no such ambivalence. When it comes to government, they don’t want to trim fat, they want to amputate limbs. Angle says she would eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency, the IRS, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Buck says he would get rid of the Energy and Education Depts. And candidates across the country say they aim to eliminate the web of special tax breaks, earmarks, and subsidies that benefit industries from golf cart manufacturers to the largest automakers.

In March 2008, Representative Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), the leader of the newly formed 24-member Tea Party caucus in Congress, introduced legislation that would repeal the national phaseout of conventional lightbulbs in favor of compact fluorescent lights. Congress, she said, had no right to tell consumers what kind of bulbs to buy. Her bill was opposed by the electrical and manufacturing industries, which had already begun the transition.

Tea Party supporters want to seal the borders, depriving industries such as technology and agriculture of a major source of labor. They have turned a stringent Arizona immigration law passed in April into a cause célèbre for the movement. “We’re all Arizonans now,” says Palin. Buck, a former prosecutor, rose to prominence in Colorado after a series of high-profile immigration raids. Most famously, Buck’s office raided a tax preparer and seized thousands of confidential documents. The search was later ruled unconstitutional by the Colorado Supreme Court.

Another Tea Party villain is the Federal Reserve. As Rand Paul travels around Kentucky, he blames the recession primarily on the central bank, which he says sent “bad signals” to the marketplace. His desire to abolish the Fed is shared by his father, libertarian Texas Representative Ron Paul, who spread banking conspiracy theories during his 2008 Presidential run. In the Senate, DeMint has also pushed for greater scrutiny of the central bank, holding up the renomination of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke until Senate leadership agreed to a vote on his bill proposing regular congressional audits of the Fed.

On global trade issues, the Tea Party tilts toward protectionism. In polling earlier this year by the Mellman Group, a majority of Tea Party supporters said they would favor a tax on imports from countries with lower environmental standards. In June, Bachmann suggested that the U.S. should somehow withdraw from the global economy, calling the Group of 20 summit “one short step” away from “one world government.”

“I don’t want the U.S. to be in a global economy where our economic future is bound to that of Zimbabwe,” she told a conservative radio host.

Republican Uneasiness

This set of policy prescriptions doesn’t sit well with the regulars inside the clubhouse at Bowling Green (Ky.) Country Club. The wooded retreat is frequented by Rand Paul and other local business owners. Even Paul’s supporters inside the modest clubhouse concede some uneasiness about their hometown candidate and his Tea Party compatriots. “If he were a mainstream Republican, this election would probably be over,” says physician Bill Wade, a Republican, sitting in the clubhouse.

Paul is for the elimination of everything from farm subsidies to mine safety laws and has said private businesses should have the right to discriminate. Although Kentucky farmers, including his in-laws, collected $3�billion in farm subsidy payments from 1995 through 2009, he has questioned the wisdom of such payments. “There are a good number of Republicans that are uncomfortable with certain Paul positions,” says Bill Betson, a county Republican chairman in the state.

As he argues against government, Paul often cites his experience as a small business owner. “Without the profit incentive, without meeting a payroll, they don’t make good decisions,” he says. “Government can’t do things as efficiently as the marketplace because they don’t get the right signals.” Asked whether business has anything to fear from the Tea Party or his own candidacy, Paul is emphatic. “No. I think business needs to be afraid of the vision of the Democrats who believe that government should be in charge of everything,” he says during a brief interview at an event in London, Ky. “We believe in term limits, a balanced-budget amendment. Read the bills. Those sound like pretty calm, mainstream ideas.”

A few minutes earlier, hammering away in his stump speech, Paul had trotted out Hitler to make a point about the dangers of economic uncertainty. “When you have chaos, bad things happen in your country,” he began. “In 1923 there was chaos in Germany. Out of that chaos, they elected Hitler. And what did Hitler do? He vilified certain people and said, ‘These people caused your problems.’ He blamed it on these people and he said, ‘Give me your liberty and I’ll give you security.’ There is still a danger to that.”

Back in the clubhouse, another waiting golfer, a Republican building supply company owner named Ferrell Price, confesses to uncertainty about Paul’s libertarian views. But, he adds, “Nancy Pelosi scares me a whole lot more than Rand Paul.”

Lerer is a reporter for Bloomberg News. McCormick is a reporter for Bloomberg News.

 


 

Transparency, Authenticity and Relevance Key When Marketing to These Quiet Agents of Change

By Thomas Pardee

Published: October 11, 2010

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — They entered the consumer market during the stormiest economic climate since the Great Depression. And like the generation that was forever altered by the harsh sacrifices of World War II, millennials are likely to be permanently affected by the Great Recession and its long-term ripples. But these characteristics won’t change about the demographic: They are vocal, demanding and discerning.

TWITTER JOCKEY: Gabi Gregg (l.) won the new MTV 'TJ' position.
TWITTER JOCKEY: Gabi Gregg (l.) won the new MTV ‘TJ’ position.

Members of Generation Y — the demographic loosely defined as those born between 1980 on the early end and 2000 on the high end — are truly the product of the turbulent times in which they were reared, and present a challenge for marketers who dare target this shrewd and, yes, narcissistic generation.

Today, many millennials are unemployed; according to a Pew Research study released in February, a staggering 37% of 18 to 29-year-olds don’t have jobs, the highest share in three decades. Those who can afford to attend college are going to less-expensive state schools or community colleges and many are moving back home after graduation. More than a third depend on family members for regular financial assistance.

They’re tightening their belts and re-evaluating what makes them happy — and they’re spending money accordingly.

“We may not have lost jobs now, but we never had them in the first place,” said Gabi Gregg, a 24-year-old graduate of Mount Holyoke College who was recently chosen as MTV’s first “Twitter Jockey” in a nationwide competition. Ms. Gregg was awarded the coveted $100,000-a-year position — her first stable job — in which she’s charged with engaging millennials like herself in the topics that matter most to them. “Almost everyone I know is living paycheck to paycheck, just trying to survive. It’s easier to interact online than to go out and pay for dinner, or go to a movie.”

Paul Taylor, exec VP of the Pew Research Center, said finding footing on the first rung of the career ladder can be the hardest step for Gen Y.

“Young adults who start out in bad economic times suffer long-term consequences,” he said. “If you don’t find a job right out of college, it may affect you for as long as 10 to 15 years down the road.”

Aside from the economic wrench, millennials bear key characteristics that distinguish them: they live and die by social media and peer validation; they were raised in “peer-renting” households that placed them at the center of their families’ attention; they’re endlessly optimistic about their futures despite current hardships; and they care about social causes — at least enough to serve up a mean Facebook campaign.

But whether millennials can tangibly unite behind a cause is a key tension point between experts and millennials themselves. Nick Shore, head of research for MTV who’s currently conducting a study on the behavior patterns of Gen Y, suggests most millennials are willing to click the “like” button on Facebook to indicate support of a cause, but won’t venture too much further beyond the gesture.

This isn’t to mean that millennials don’t care, though. Experts agree that given their collective upbringing, for Gen Y, negotiation is the new rebellion. “They don’t see themselves as revolutionaries or reformers, they see themselves as quiet [agents of] change,” said Carol Phillips, founder of the market research firm Brand Amplitude, which specializes in millennial studies. “It’s about working within the system. They’ve never had to reject anything; they’ve just had to build on it. And their numbers suggest that they can be successful at it.”

This is a defining characteristic of the generation, according to author and economist Neil Howe, who coined the term “millennial” in the early ’90s in his first of several books on Gen Y. And like most millennial-related issues, technology plays a part. “If you ask a bunch of Gen Xers [born in the '60s and '70s] what they would do if they didn’t like where they worked, most would say ‘leave.’ But if you ask millennials that question, their attitude is, ‘Someone will fix it,’” Mr. Howe said. “They’ll start IM-ing each other, a few will get Mom and Dad on their cellphones, someone will call the local media, another will alert the congressman. Millennials trust in their institutions more than baby boomers or Gen Xers.”

Ms. Gregg cites the massive response to gay rights advocate Dan Savage’s recent “It Gets Better” YouTube project as a prime example of millennial might. In just a few weeks, hundreds of videos of LBGT adults and allies, including many millennials, had submitted videos with anti-bullying messages and support for gay youth. (The channel has since been viewed more than a million times.) Gen Y isn’t physically storming the castle walls, but Ms. Gregg said that doesn’t mean it’s not making its voice heard.

Millennials are also perhaps the most analytical and media-savvy consumers ever. Mr. Shore said that, while some characterize millennials as suspicious or cynical of old-school linear marketing ploys, they’re just better at seeing through them. “We shoot a beam of content to the audience, and they take it apart like light through a prism. … Millennials are super-deconstructive of any kind of media messaging.”

Mr. Shore said for this reason and others, transparency and authenticity are key in marketing to Gen Y, and he’s not alone — Ms. Phillips said Gen Y has a love/hate relationship with marketing. “They love brands, and they talk about them more than anything else, but they hate the interruptive model of advertising,” said Ms. Phillips. “[Millennials] like to see ads tailored to them. It’s not that they don’t want to see ads, they just don’t want to see ads for Cialis.”

Ms. Phillips says millennials are now tinged with a sense of frugality that will likely remain for the rest of their lives. Her research suggests they’re big into redistribution of materials, into sharing smaller houses and taking public transit or walking. They’ve dropped their cable and never used landline phones; they’re not eating out as much, and they’re paying down their debt. Though they will splurge on necessities (which now include smartphones) and rationalize that occasional Coach bag as a career investment, “they’ll go online and ask their friends for recs. They’re very careful shoppers.”

Ms. Phillips says millennials’ focus on experience helps explain why social currency is the new gold standard for smart marketers and advertisers. “If I can add value, they’ll tell my story for me,” she said. “It puts pressure on marketers to go back to their roots — it’s about engaging consumers with your message.”

Mr. Shore, who conducts focus groups for new programming with millennials from the earliest stages of a show’s creation, said an essential element in making this new concept of social currency work is actually not so new at all — linear programming, like the MTV Video Music Awards, around which millennials can engage on digital platforms like Twitter. After all, “smart and funny is the new rock and roll,” Mr. Shore said.

Mr. Howe said it’s no accident that millennials voted for President Obama by a 66% margin: Mr. Obama, who was Ad Age’s Marketer of the Year in 2008, relentlessly peddled the most millennial ideas possible — positivity and inclusiveness. Mr. Howe said these are values that millennials respond to most.

“Gen X slogans were ‘No rules, just right’ and ‘Grab life by the horns,’ all very in-your-face,” said Mr. Howe. “For millennials, it’s ‘Yes, we can,’ ‘Wii would like to play’ and ‘We’re all in this together’ from ‘High School Musical.’ It’s a different attitude. It has to be inclusive, and it has to look for a better day.”

While experts note millennials are also known for their arrogance, self-centeredness and reliance on technology, Ms. Phillips said marketers and older generations in general would do well to not pander, over-simplify or write them off too quickly. “They get it. They deeply get it,” she said. “And where they go, everyone else is going to follow.”

5 tips for marketing to millennials

Be fast
For millennials, there’s nothing worth saying that can’t be said in 140 characters or less. It’s not that they can’t handle long-form pitches, they just know you can do better. So do better.

Be clever
As Nick Shore, head of research for MTV, said, “Smart and funny is the new rock ‘n’ roll.” Millennials are set to be the most-educated generation on record, with the largest social-media platform (Facebook) having been famously born on a college campus. “With their roots in college culture, it’s no wonder eloquence and timing are more prized than ever for this generation. Err on the side of overestimating the millennial — as the Old Spice campaign shows — and sometimes they’ll surprise you.

Be transparent
Millennials may be arrogant and entitled, but they’re not stupid, and they know media exists to sell them things. So rather than pretending your branded beverage isn’t conspicuously placed in a TV character’s hand to entice them, look for new ways to make it funny. It will ring true with them, and they’ll appreciate the honesty. (Need a cue? Look no further than the deliciously self-referential “30 Rock.”)

Don’t “technologize” everything
By their own definition, millennials are in part defined by their use of and reliance on technology. But marketers should resist the urge to attempt to “speak their language” — Gen Yers can smell those ploys a mile away. Remember, millennials are digital natives — they don’t use technology; they live it, and they do so subconsciously.

Give them a reason to talk about you
Millennials don’t like ads, but they don’t mind marketing that’s non-invasive, non-interruptive and that adds something to their experience, either online or off. Whether it’s a fun and timely iPhone app, a targeted high-profile event or a personalized viral-video campaign, if you want your message to resonate with millennials, give them something to talk about. And if we know the first thing about millennials, talk they will.

Posted by: Patrick | September 8, 2010

Forbes.com – Social Media Is Fashion’s Newest Muse

Forbes.com

Style
Social Media Is Fashion’s Newest Muse
Leah Bourne, 09.07.10, 6:00 PM ET

Last month Marc Jacobs CEO Robert Duffy was so impressed with the amount of Twitter feedback from customers who wanted plus sizes that he tweeted, “We gotta do larger sizes,” to the company’s more than 26,000 followers. “I’m with you. As soon as I get back to NY I’m on it,” he wrote.

It was great news to Marc Jacobs’ fans who wear larger sizes. It also was evidence that, in this era of the social Web, fashion designers and retailers are no longer operating in an ivory tower or for solely the red carpet. Because of the close relationships they now have with customers on social networking sites, many have adopted an “ask and ye shall receive” policy.

Want your favorite designer to make ruby red handbags, re-issue a dress from last season or roll out plus sizes? You may only need to tweet or post a Facebook comment to get a response. While this strategy is hardly new for big corporations such as PepsiCo and JetBlue, many fashion companies are taking social media to new levels. Those that have are seeing the upside in terms of revenue and customer appreciation.

Want To Talk To Marc Jacobs? Click Here

Ann Taylor, which has struggled to boost sales in recent years, saw a 16% rise in same-store sales for the second quarter of 2010–and many analysts are pointing to the company’s aggressive use of social media for helping to lure new customers. Earlier this summer LOFT, which is owned by Ann Taylor, posted photos on its Facebook page of a new pair of pants worn by a skinny model. Many commenters complained, one writing: “Sure, they look great, if you’re 5’10″ and a stick like the model in the photo.”

The retailer responded the next day. “You asked and we listened,” it wrote, posting several new photos of employees wearing the same pants in sizes ranging from 2 to 12. The response garnered almost 100 comments, most applauding LOFT’s effort. One woman wrote, “This is fab idea. Kudos to you for listening to your shoppers.” The campaign has since been copied by retailers such as Banana Republic.

Ann Taylor CEO Kay Krill says, “Online and social media are playing an increasing role and complementing our direct mail outreach, advertising and PR efforts. We’ve a learned a lot by dialoguing with our customer this way.”

The company has also benefited financially, she says. In the second quarter, ending June 30, LOFT posted a 55% increase in its e-commerce sales, while the Ann Taylor brand had a 29% jump in online sales.

Besides using real women on Facebook to model its latest styles, the company has expanded its petite offerings and its shoe collection, both based on customer feedback, most of which is now coming from social media channels.

It isn’t just major retail chains that are listening to the views of their customers online. Israel-based Daria Shualy, a former fashion editor, launched the website Sense of Fashion this year with the intention of helping indie designers sell their wares and better communicate with customers. Designers sell their merchandise directly from the site and are also able to poll potential customers about favorite colors and styles.


“The whole idea is to create a closeness between customers and designers,” says Shualy. “There is something about fashion that comes across as inaccessible. That’s all changing. Today consumers are expecting direct access and a say.”

This helps boost the bottom line. “We’ve seen an exact correlation on the back end for designers,” she says. “The more they are interacting with their customers, the more they are selling.”

One Sense of Fashion merchant, Francesca Audelo, who started a line of vintage- inspired hair accessories called FancyThat in Los Angeles, regularly polls her customers on everything from feather colors to favorite styles. “The comments from my customers have shaped the way I design my headbands, and even the way I’ve set prices,” she says. “I have lowered and raised my prices based on customer feedback.”

Audelo, who attests to spending most of her day online using various forms of social media, is among a new breed of entrepreneurs who have become online friends with her customers. “I keep in touch with customers,” she says. “I know who they are and what they like.”

New York-based handbag designer Dareen Hakim, who sells to Henri Bendel and specialty retailer Intermix, has developed a similarly close relationship with her customers. Some offer color suggestions, while others have requested a clutch in a certain material via e-mail or on her Facebook fan page. “Trends are moving so quickly and fashion companies have to be nimble and react quickly to their customers,” she says.

By the end of the year Hakim, whose handbags are already customizable, hopes to offer customers the opportunity to make color and leather suggestions right on her website; she says she will then produce the suggested designs if there is enough interest.

But Hakim and other fashion designers also must learn to balance responding to digital customer feedback while maintaining a consistent brand identity. “It’s an enormous challenge,” Hakim says. “A brand today has to be both a reflection of a designer while remaining open to the suggestions of customers.”

Shauna Mei, who is launching online specialty retailer AHALife this month, aims for her site to be a two-way conversation. “I want to create a dialogue between my site, brands and shoppers, but it isn’t a democracy,” she says. “We need to filter our customers’ suggestions.”

Similar to Daily Candy‘s newsletter, one new product will be introduced on AHALife daily, handpicked by curators like Diane von Furstenberg and Tim Gunn. Shopper will also be able to suggest items for the site. Stumble across a hand-blown glass candy dish in Italy or a basket maker in rural Ohio? Make the suggestion and it might just be sold on the site. “We are relying on our customers,” Mei says, “and we will be listening.”


Athletic wear retailer Lululemon has been successful striking this balance by attaching its unique brand of customer service to its brand identity. Communication and dialogue via social media have become central to the Vancouver-based company, whose second quarter operating profits more than tripled since the same period last year. “We learn on Facebook and through social media what are our guests are really screaming for, and we actually use the feedback,” says Lululemon CEO Christine Day.

Lululemon offers a form on its website and in its stores for customer suggestions. Comments on the Lululemon Facebook page and via Twitter almost always get a response. With more than 183,000 Facebook fans and nearly 40,000 Twitter followers, that is no small task.

The company has adjusted everything from where pockets sit on pants to the placement of waistbands on running shorts, and even learned that it needed to stock more small sizes, based on online customer feedback. It doesn’t go unnoticed. Customers regularly tweet about the great service, then get a thank you in response from the Lululemon social media team.

Posted by: Patrick | September 7, 2010

Forbes.com: Spending A Lot On Facebook

Forbes.com

Social Media
Spending A Lot On Facebook
Adam Ostrow, 08.31.10, 11:00 AM ET

In the social media world a number of trends are dictating how, why and where money gets spent–trends that will push the industry past the $2 billion mark in 2011, according to eMarketer’s projections.

Not surprisingly, the biggest beneficiary of the current euphoria around social is Facebook, with several estimates now pegging the company’s 2010 revenue at better than $1 billion. That growth is being fueled in part by what some advertisers see as competition to scoring prime advertising space on the site.

“Most of our clients see a real need to spend a lot on Facebook ads,” says Andrea Wolinetz, a partner at MEC Global, which represents the likes of Ikea, AT&T and Citi. “There’s so much noise and clutter on Facebook now, that spending a good deal has become important in order to be heard.”

There’s also a growing sense that social media advertising can deliver a return on investment. Neil Kleiner, head of social media at Havas Media UK says, “We’ve found advertising on social networks to be very effective, but mainly as a part of a larger piece of activity that involved more ‘traditional’ social media techniques … ads on social media work best when they drive interaction and engagement. Interaction and engagement can then drive purchase.”

Kleiner, whose firm does work for brands ranging from McDonald’s to Warner Bros., adds that Facebook advertising has become a “default for most brands as a part of their media spend.”

Twitter’s Experimental Phase
After years of fielding questions about how it plans to make money, Twitter has launched numerous experimental business models over the past several months. At the forefront is Promoted Tweets, a program that inserts a brand-sponsored topic into Twitter’s “trending topics” list and presents a tweet from that sponsor to users, in hopes of generating retweets, replies and other forms of engagement.

Early testers of the program include Virgin America and Coca-Cola, the latter of which reported 86 million impressions and an “engagement rate” of 6% back when it used the program in June during the World Cup. More recently, the online brokerage firm Zecco reported that engagement on its promoted tweets was 50% higher than its regular tweets, with “200 to 300% increases in some cases.”

Case studies are still limited, though. “Promoted Tweets have not seen that much traction [with my clients],” Kleiner says, though he sees an opportunity to “add real value to a long tail of advertisers.” For the moment though, that long tail is mostly left out of Promoted Tweets, as the program remains in limited beta.

As the program sees public rollout later this year, the results could be significant for Twitter and advertisers. In its report, eMarketer said it expects “spending on the microblogging service [to] be low in 2010,” but adds that, “the potential for 2011 and beyond could be dramatic if it proves that its ‘resonance’ model of measuring advertising effectiveness works.”


Location Excites Marketers, Maybe More Than Consumers
The latest extension of social–knowing not just what your friends are doing but where they’re doing it–is one of the hottest trends of the year.

The field collectively referred to as “location” has marketers from Starbucks to Best Buy excited about the possibilities of increasing foot traffic through programs that reward customers for “checking in” and sharing their location and brand affinity with their friends.

That said, such programs are largely experimental, and many of the startups in the space lack the critical mass to significantly move the needle for big brands. “Foursquare is the buzz word on a lot of people’s lips, but it has such a comparatively small audience that are niche to the point of incestuous,” Kleiner says. “It’s mainly used by people that work in marketing, not ‘normal’ people.”

Still, getting started in the location realm requires less of an investment than competing for space on Facebook. Says Wolinetz: “We spend a lot of our time testing and focusing interest in location-based services and Twitter, as our clients are eager to ‘master’ these emerging platforms, and [they] generally require less of a paid media investment than Facebook does.”

Kleiner concedes that he’s bullish on the potential of Facebook getting into location with the recent launch of Places, though the tools aren’t yet there for advertisers. “We will have some real mass to play with when Facebook allows advertisers to buy against location,” he says.

Social No Longer Sits at the Kids’ Table
While the market sorts out the winners and losers from a platform perspective, one thing that’s becoming clear is that social–which eMarketer estimates will account for 6.7% of total online ad spend this year–is being thought of in a much broader light than even the increasingly optimistic projections show.

“Social campaigns used to be more siloed from the rest of the communications and marketing strategies,” says Wolinetz. “Now we’re seeing social as either an extension of an overall activation idea that occurs throughout other media outlets, or conversely, the marketing/communication strategy is at its heart and inception social, and we’re using other media outlets to drive awareness and scale.”

And while that might mean social’s share of ad dollars is still relatively small, its importance within organizations is as high as it has ever been. “The biggest shift for us is that we are now seeing brands move away from pure campaign planning altogether and are allowing social media to be the bedrock for a 24-7, 365 days a year chance to engage their customers,” says Kleiner.

Adam Ostrow is editor in chief at Mashable, a widely read blog that covers the latest technologies, trends and people that are driving the current evolution of the Web.

Forbes.com

OutFront
Is It Time to Listen to Rep. Paul Ryan’s Economic Prescription?
Brian Wingfield, 09.13.10, 12:00 AM ET

Paul Ryan, a professional policy wonk from Wisconsin, sees trouble ahead if the country stays on its present course. The cost of entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security is racing ahead, at the same time that the federal government is ladling out dollars to fight the recession and collecting less in tax revenue because of the recession. Meanwhile, he argues, we are contending with chronically high unemployment, insurmountable debt payments and a crushing tax burden that could kill U.S. competitiveness. Maybe, just maybe, those entitlements have to be redesigned. He’s not quite saying, “Stop Social Security!,” but he is getting dangerously close to the thought.

Who is this guy? It would be no surprise if he turned out to be a wealthy financier who had taken up budget policy as a retirement hobby (like Peter G. Peterson) or a professional forecaster whose views on consumer spending are bearish (like Gary Shilling). The surprise is that Ryan is an elected official. He’s running for election to a seventh term in Congress, representing a district with a razor-thin Republican edge south of Milwaukee.

Mess with Social Security? Are voters ready for this? Maybe they are. Those trillion-dollar deficits can’t go on much longer.

“We have to give the country a very clear choice,” Ryan, 40, says as he’s campaigning in his home state on a mid-August afternoon. “Do you want the American idea, which is an opportunity society with a sturdy safety net, or do you want to have the cradle-to-grave, Western European-style social welfare state?”

Ryan’s choice is clear, and it’s not something many Americans of either party will easily swallow. His “Roadmap for America’s Future,” both a policy paper and a proposed bill, calls for reducing the federal deficit and debt in decades to come by partly privatizing and trimming Social Security and Medicare, freezing most government programs and instituting a simplified, optional two-tier tax system that would cut taxes for the rich.

Skeptics say his roadmap will run the country into a ditch. They say that, despite eviscerating Medicare, the plan won’t control spiraling health care costs. They say that it won’t cut the deficit drastically and could raise taxes on some people.

Yet Americans will need to take some version of this medicine, and Ryan has, as some detractors concede, at least started the conversation. President Obama called the roadmap (97 pages in the short version) “a serious proposal.” Ryan is seen as the GOP’s answer to its reputation as the “party of no” and as such has embarrassed Democrats for their lack of a comparable deficit-cutting plan. This backbencher from Janesville (pop. 63,000) and Ayn Rand admirer could be the future economic idea man for the Republican Party.

“People see that this debt crisis is real and right in front of us,” says Ryan. They are paying attention to him, he adds, “because, unfortunately, I’m the only person who’s put a plan out there.”

Ryan worked as a staffer for Senator Bob Kasten (R–Wis.) while attending Miami U. in Ohio and just after college. He hopscotched among political jobs in the mid-1990s, writing speeches for the late representative Jack Kemp (R–N.Y.) and directing legislation for Senator Sam Brownback (R–Kans.). He was elected to Congress at 28 in 1998. His private-sector experience includes a brief stint as a marketing consultant for Ryan Inc. Central (a site construction business owned by his cousins’ family) and part-time jobs waiting tables and occasionally driving the Wienermobile during a summer gig at Oscar Mayer.

Sidebar:
How The Roadmap Would Work


Austerity plans surprisingly are cropping up in leftist locales, like Britain, Spain and Greece. Even Denmark, famous for its unfrayed safety net, is cutting the length of its unemployment benefits from four years to two to deal with its financial troubles. Washington will need to take action soon to keep the U.S. economy from sinking deeper. The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal debt would, by 2020, rise to nearly 100% of GDP–compared with 62% today and 36% only three years ago–if the Bush tax cuts are extended, the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation and current spending policies remain in place. According to the Social Security Board of Trustees, by 2037 the program’s trust funds will be depleted. In June Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that unless action is taken, “We will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.”

To keep that from happening, Ryan proposes to freeze nondefense discretionary spending–15% of the budget–for ten years and essentially move to more means-tested programs to cover retirees and sick people. His tax plan would eliminate itemized deductions and set rates at 10% for the first $50,000 of income on an individual return and 25% for income above that. He would replace the corporate income tax with an 8.5% business consumption tax.

Paul Van de Water of the nonpartisan Center on Budget & Policy Priorities points out that, by one analysis, the plan will slash by 50% the income tax liability of the richest 1% in 2014 while 75% of all Americans will see their tax burdens rise, partly due to the consumption tax being passed on to consumers.

Ryan counters that his tax system is progressive, even though it lowers tax rates on the rich, because it cuts out itemized deductions and loopholes frequently enjoyed by wealthy earners. Moreover, the idea behind lowering taxes isn’t to redistribute income, he says; it’s to encourage investment in the U.S. The business consumption tax would be levied on value added and inevitably would be passed along in the prices of goods and services.

Ryan admits his plan for Social Security could lead to lower benefits for people now under 55. “We don’t have a choice,” he says. These younger workers would have the option to put their Social Security money in an investment account managed by Uncle Sam but subject to market fluctuations.

He would wipe out ObamaCare and replace it with a voucher-based system in which adults get a $2,300 refundable tax credit to pay for health care. Similarly, Medicare recipients under 55 today would, on retirement, get vouchers to buy private insurance. He would raise the eligibility age for both Social Security and Medicare to 69 and 70, respectively, by the end of this century. How does this tame health care costs? By creating competition among doctors, price transparency and more “skin in the game” for consumers. “This requires some faith in the marketplace,” he says.

It also requires faith in which numbers to believe. According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the Ryan roadmap would decrease revenue by $4 trillion over the next ten years, compared to an extension of current spending and revenue policies. “Our numbers could be right, they could be right,” says Ryan.

Only 14 other GOP members in all of Congress have endorsed the plan. In other words, it has no chance of becoming law in its present form. “My goal was to get other plans launched, to ignite and start a debate,” Ryan says. The congressman blames the inability to put his ideas in motion on “the crowd that runs Washington now.” But even if Republicans win convincingly in November’s congressional elections, he’ll still have to face opposition from the other side of the aisle and the President. Ryan’s strategy, then, is to win over moderate Democrats and, if the GOP takes control of the House, to force change.

“I see dozens of reinforcements coming in the fall to help us take this fiscal situation seriously so we can get this thing fixed,” he says.

Sidebar:
How The Roadmap Would Work


In August Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman, predictably called Ryan a “flimflam man” and announced that the roadmap is a “fraud.”

But Ryan is still the only member of Congress with a plan. According to Ryan, that’s because other lawmakers are too interested in self-preservation. “We have more ‘be-ers’ up here than ‘doers,’” says Ryan of Washington. “People want to be a congressman rather than actually do something.”

Laurence Kotlikoff
Boston University
Kotlikoff has already declared the U.S. bankrupt, and he says the U.S. must take swift action to prevent a run on its debt. Solution: Replace income tax with a progressive consumption tax and overhaul entitlement programs.

Peter G. Peterson
Peter G. Peterson Foundation
Blackstone Group cofounder has been preaching fiscal restraint for years. In 2008 gave foundation $1 billion to educate the public on the need for a simpler tax code, greater savings rate, entitlement reform and debt reduction.

Gary Shilling
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Bearish FORBES columnist predicts slow growth and deflation as both governments and consumers tighten their belts. Commodity prices will slump. Investment advice: Sell cyclical stocks, buy long-term Treasuries and seek refuge in the U.S. dollar.

Sidebar:
How The Roadmap Would Work

Posted by: Patrick | September 2, 2010

NYTimes.com: Why Wall St. Is Deserting Obama

The New York Times

August 30, 2010

By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

Daniel S. Loeb, the hedge fund manager, was one of Barack Obama’s biggest backers in the 2008 presidential campaign.

A registered Democrat, Mr. Loeb has given and raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Democrats. Less than a year ago, he was considered to be among the Wall Street elite still close enough to the White House to be invited to a speech in Lower Manhattan, where President Obama outlined the need for a financial regulatory overhaul.

So it came as quite a surprise on Friday, when Mr. Loeb sent a letter to his investors that sounded as if he were preparing to join Glenn Beck in Washington over the weekend.

“As every student of American history knows, this country’s core founding principles included nonpunitive taxation, constitutionally guaranteed protections against persecution of the minority and an inexorable right of self-determination,” he wrote. “Washington has taken actions over the past months, like the Goldman suit that seem designed to fracture the populace by pulling capital and power from the hands of some and putting it in the hands of others.”

Over the weekend, the letter, with quotations from Thomas Jefferson, Ronald Reagan and President Obama, was forwarded around the circles of the moneyed elite, from the Hamptons to Silicon Valley. Mr. Loeb’s jeremiad illustrates how some of the president’s former friends on Wall Street and in business now feel about Washington.

Mr. Loeb isn’t the first Wall Streeter to turn on the president. Steven A. Cohen, founder of the hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors and a supporter of the Obama campaign, recently held a meeting with Republican candidates in his home in Greenwich, Conn., to strategize about the midterm elections, according to Absolute Return magazine.

Other onetime supporters, like Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, also feel burned by the Obama administration, people close to him say.

That the honeymoon between Washington and Wall Street has turned to bitter recriminations is not news, given that the administration had long pledged to revamp Wall Street regulation in the wake of a crisis that rattled the global financial system.

Less than two years ago, Democrats received 70 percent of the donations from Wall Street; since June, when the financial regulation bill was nearing passage, Republicans were receiving 68 percent of the donations, according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group.

But what is surprising is that some of the president’s biggest supporters have so publicly derided his policies, even at the risk of hurting their ability to influence the party in the future. Issues like the carry-interest tax on private equity or the Volcker Rule have become personal.

Why so personal? The prevailing view is that bankers, hedge fund mangers and traders supported the Obama candidacy because he appealed to their egos.

Mr. Obama was viewed as a member of the elite, an Ivy League graduate (Columbia, class of ’83, the same as Mr. Loeb), president of The Harvard Law Review — he was supposed to be just like them. President Obama was the “intelligent” choice, the same way they felt about themselves. They say that they knew he would seek higher taxes and tighter regulation; that was O.K. What they say they did not realize was that they were going to be painted as villains.

That Wall Street view of itself as a victim has prompted much of the private murmurings and the unfortunate — or worse — outburst from Stephen A. Schwarzman, who likened the administration’s plan for taxes on private equity to “when Hitler invaded Poland in 1939.” Mr. Schwarzman later apologized for the “inappropriate analogy.”

Now Mr. Loeb, who manages about $3.4 billion at his firm, Third Point Partners, has articulated in a more thoughtful way what a lot of others in finance and business are saying.

“We have given a great deal of thought about the impact that public policy has on individual companies, industries and the economy generally,” he said. Third Point has sold its investments in big banks as a result of “regulatory headwinds”; got rid of its stake in Wellpoint, which Mr. Loeb described as “a statistically cheap stock owned by several hedge funds, but which we saw as being overly exposed to unpredictable government regulation”; and taken a short position against for-profit education companies as a result of “the government’s increased willingness to use its regulatory muscle.”

Mr. Loeb’s views, irrespective of their validity, point to a bigger problem for the economy: If business leaders have a such a distrust of government, they won’t invest in the country. And perception is becoming reality.

Just last week, Paul S. Otellini, chief executive of Intel, said at a dinner at the Aspen Forum of the Technology Policy Institute that “the next big thing will not be invented here. Jobs will not be created here.”

Mr. Otellini has overseen two big acquisitions in the last two weeks — the $7.7 billion takeover of the security software maker McAfee and the $1.4 billion deal for the wireless chip unit of Infineon Technologies. If he is true to his word, those deals will most likely lead to job cuts in the United States, not job creation.

Mr. Loeb declined to comment.

But it seems clear that he wrote the letter because so much of his fund’s investments were being driven by the impact of politics. It appears he is no longer betting that a chief executive will make his numbers; he’s betting on what legislation Congress will pass next.

Mr. Loeb, whose poison pen is legendary, usually targets obstinate corporate managers or rivals. In one such note to the chief executive of Star Gas Partners, Mr. Loeb wrote: “It is time for you to step down from your role as C.E.O. and director so that you can do what you do best: retreat to your waterfront mansion in the Hamptons where you can play tennis and hobnob with your fellow socialites.”

In his letter to investors, he took issue with a number of Washington initiatives, including the Credit Card Act of 2009 and a proposed “enterprise tax” that would be levied on hedge fund managers who sell their firms.

“So long as our leaders tell us that we must trust them to regulate and redistribute our way back to prosperity, we will not break out of this economic quagmire,” Mr. Loeb wrote.

“Perhaps our leaders will awaken to the fact that free market capitalism is the best system to allocate resources and create innovation, growth and jobs,” he continued. “Perhaps too, a cloven-hoofed, bristly haired mammal will become airborne and the rosette-like marking of a certain breed of ferocious feline will become altered. In other words, we are not holding our breath.”

Critics of Wall Street will rightfully complain that it was the actions of free market capitalists that prompted a push for regulation. On that point, Mr. Loeb does not entirely disagree.

“Many people see the collapse of the subprime markets, along with the failure and subsequent rescue of many banks, as failures of capitalism rather than a result of a vile stew of inept management, unaccountable boards of directors and overmatched regulators not just asleep, but comatose, at the proverbial switch,” he wrote. “It is easy to see why so many people have concluded that the entire system is rigged.”

The latest news on mergers and acquisitions can be found at nytimes.com/dealbook.

Posted by: Patrick | October 30, 2008

The GOP: A Brand Gone Awry

Last night I attended a regularly scheduled dinner of GOP insiders here in Atlanta with one of the top strategists of the 1994 GOP US House Revolution.  I was the first to ask a question after his short presentation that I knew was on the mind of most of the people in the room as well as many other Republicans and center-right Independents.  And that question was “What in the Hell happened” between the pivotal reform minded Contract with America that helped to sweep in Republican control of Congress in 1994 and now?  Not surprisingly, the whole room exhaled.

It took the evening’s speaker not even a second to say “absolute power corrupts absolutely”.

So what are ideologically brand loyal Republicans to do??  If leaders of the GOP can’t maintain fidelity to conservative principles of personal responsibility and limited but effective governance, what’s the purpose of the brand?  Are we to become center-right Independents too and evaluate every election on a race by race basis?  Phooey!  I hope not!

What’s needed in short order in the political consumer marketplace are clear intellectual and emotional definitions of what the GOP stands for.  Going forward, the first and central brand emotion that the GOP needs to connect with voters on in my opinion is inclusiveness.  Inclusiveness by race, gender, socio-economic class, religion, et al.  Conservatism as a governing paradigm can no longer be the purview (percieved or real) of the white male affluent class.  That also means coming up with an urban cities governing policy so we don’t abdicate this diverse and growing class of voters to corrupt Democratic machinery.

In modern day politics, if voters don’t feel included or like they can relate to the message and the messenger, then they just as well stay home or vote for the person who seems more relatable in spite of the message.

I guess that means I’ll have to get used to saying President Obama for at least the next four years.

Posted by: Patrick | November 3, 2008

Southern Media Adventurers

Over brisket quesadillas at lunch last Friday, a lunch that included a delicious frozen pomegranate margarita, I met two online media entrepreneurs who have a vision for an “all south, all the time” video site.  What struck me as interesting about the concept was how brilliant it is in its simplicity.  However, what also struck me as interesting was how little thought the entrepreneurs had given to audience targeting, segmentation and monetization.

I believe that more and more online video has to evolve into a cable-like model of content – audience matching.  For online broadcasters that would be something akin to HGTV, Lifetime, and the Food Network.  Unless you are a major broadcaster with access to a breadth of professionally produced TV-like content, I think having a general purpose video site will be a failing business model because it will depend too heavily on building a significantly large audience size.  Furthermore, trying to monetize a large online audience without there being obvious audience characteristics besides basic demographics means very low advertising rates and correspondingly low probability of success (of making money).

Intimately defining your audience first and your desired relationship with them on behalf of advertisers is paramount to experimenting your way to success in the emerging online video world.  That insight will inform everything from the brand, to content development, to site design to the eventual integration of advertising.  As the CEO of a new online broadcast company, The Photography Network, this is the very same discipline I’m bringing to our marketing, audience development, content development and sponsor sales efforts.  So far so good…

I hope I end up working with those two entrepreneurs in some way or another.  The opportunity to be a part of another online broadcast adventure is what I’m living for these days.

Posted by: Patrick | November 15, 2008

History in the Making

Well, it’s been a little more than a week since the historic butt-kicking of the GOP at all levels.  While I’m profoundly disappointed at the performance of my Party on election day 2008, I’m more angry at the level of non-performance of the Party over the last 8 years.

After the 2000 election, the Republicans and Bush had a wonderful opportunity to make “Compassionate Conservatism” the majority governing paradigm for the next 20 years or so.  Simply put, compassionate conservatism is a political philosophy that stresses using traditionally conservative techniques and concepts in order to improve the general welfare of society.  Unfortunately, after 9/11, both Bush and the Party focused almost exclusively on the War on Terror and lost the opportunity to extend the Party’s reach and inclusiveness across other facets of society — health care, domestic poverty, education and the economy.

While preventing another a major attack on American soil is an accomplishment Bush and the Party deserve credit for, the mismanagement of the War in Iraq was another dent to conservatives’ compassionate rationale for liberating a brutally oppressed Iraqi people.

So at the present moment, the GOP sits at a point in history where we’re soul searching.  There are the usual voices clamoring that we just need “more conservatism” spoken more loudly and packaged in a cool hip Obama-like media/tech-savvy way.  These are the same people in large part responsible for the Party losing its soul after the Contract with America revolution, ushered in by Newt Gingrich and innovative Governors like Tommy Thompson, John Engler, Christine Todd Whitman and George Allen.

In my opinion, the “old traditional (dare I say vanilla) conservatives” have no clue what they’re talking about.  Specifically, but not exclusively, I’m talking about “rising star conservative” political leaders like Mike Pence (IN) and Eric Cantor (VA) who I saw on a recent episode of Fox News talking about the future of the Party.  I walked away from watching their post-election conversation completely uninspired and downright peeved that they’re emblematic of Party leadership who don’t “get it.”

In the end, the pathway back to respectability for Republicans is not slick web 2.0 campaigns and repackaging of the same “old conservatism”.  In my opinion it is “Compassionate Conservatism” — appealing to both the right brain (creative and emotional) and the left brain of the electorate.  Conservatism has to unequivocally and unambiguously stand for the improvement of the general welfare of society for all people.  In doing so, I believe the leaders able to best articulate this message and execute it as Governors, Mayors, community organizers (yes, community organizers) will be the type of people who will draw diverse people by race, gender, socio-economic class, geography, religion, et al back to the Party.

In that vein, I think Gov. Palin and Gov. Jindal are history in the making for the GOP.

Posted by: Patrick | January 29, 2009

Job Hunting 2.0??

Given that I have several friends who are in job hunting mode, and that I’ve been meeting with many friends of friends to help them network for job leads I thought this article to be timely.  Blogging is an interesting consideration for those looking to leverage Web 2.o with their job search…

Blogs: an effective job-hunting tool?

Reviews are mixed as to whether they give job seekers an edge.

For two years David Atkins has been blogging about blending work and life. So when he learned that his job as a technology director was ending Dec. 31, he turned to his blog as a path to employment.

Under the heading “My job search begins,” he wrote: “I need your help to find a new job.” He outlined two areas of interest – one as a start-up technology leader, the other as a strategic consultant – and summarized his qualifications.

“Blogging and social media are the principal means I am using to find work,” says Mr. Atkins, of Westwood, Mass. “I was already a blogger, but I have ramped up my efforts dramatically in a nonstop effort to brand, promote, and network myself.”

Atkins’s high-tech quest puts him among the growing ranks of job seekers who are going beyond traditional methods – answering classified ads, sending out a blizzard of paper résumés – to make connections in new ways. In a sign of changing times, 40 percent of respondents to the 2008 Spherion Emerging Workforce Study say they use online methods in their job search.

“In today’s job market, you really have to do things that differentiate yourself from others,” says Scott Testa, professor of marketing at St. Joseph’s University in Philadelphia. “Having a blog allows you to communicate to the world your insight and your knowledge.” Those who write about subjects related to their occupation are more likely to secure positions, he adds. Niche blogs in law, medicine, and marketing are especially popular.

Although Atkins has not yet found a full-time position, his blog has already yielded fruit. When he responded to a freelance job posting, the company was familiar with his local blogs on a town website. It hired him to do a project immediately. “I’m not only looking for a job, I am working to build consulting revenue too,” he says.

Atkins regards blogging as one of many tools in a job search. Others include social-networking sites such as LinkedIn and Twitter. “I can send a quick note on Twitter and reference my blog,” he says. Twitter also led him to a local career club, where he networks face to face.

He also sets aside time to send out résumés. “A résumé gets the attention of people who are looking to hire someone in a particular role,” Atkins says. “A blog complements that by showing what else I do that makes me an interesting person.”

Some workplace specialists call blogs “the new résumé” and an electronic business card. “In this 21st century, having a blog gives you credibility,” says Lorne Epstein, author of “You’re Hired: Interview Skills to Get the Job.”

But no one should underestimate the work involved. “To build your blog base, you have to keep it relevant and update it regularly,” Mr. Epstein says. “Blogging is a job, a responsibility that is continual. Even to blog once a week in a substantial way can take hours. And it could take a year before your blog gets any traction.”

David Erickson, a director for an online marketing firm in Minneapolis, blogs extensively about his industry, in part to raise his profile within the industry. Although he is not looking for a new position, he says he regularly receives job opportunities from recruiters as a direct result of blogging.

The most effective way to use a blog for employment, Mr. Erickson finds, is to have one well-established before a job search becomes necessary. He says, “By demonstrating that you know what you are talking about, even if your blog does not have many readers, you’ll establish a level of confidence with interviewers prior to any actual interview. But if you’re just doing it to find a job, it won’t be effective.”

With or without a blog, Erickson regards social networks like LinkedIn as “the career tools of the future.”

Not everyone shares his enthusiasm. “Blogging and Internet searching for jobs is worthless,” says Drew Stevens, a business growth consultant in St. Louis. “Almost 65 percent of positions are discovered from your network and peer group.”

But Martha Finney, author of “Rebound: A Proven Plan for Starting Over After Job Loss,” defends blogging.

“It’s an excellent way for job seekers to demonstrate their passion, smarts, and dedication to their profession over time, regardless of what their immediate job status is,” she says. “If hiring managers find their material fascinating to read, perhaps even educational or groundbreaking, they’re going to want to bring these people in for interviews.”

Still, blogs carry potential pitfalls.

“You don’t want to get into political arguments, or include anything racy, or write about religion and politics,” says Glenn Dubiel, vice president of the Mergis Group, a placement firm. “We Google all candidates. There are many people we don’t hire because of their negative Web presence. Those people don’t know why they never got to the offer stage. Managing your Web presence is really important.”

Noting that everyone needs to be “Googleable” these days, Ms. Finney says, “The question is, when someone Googles you, are they going to find pictures of your dog at the Grand Canyon? Or are they going to find evidence that you’re so passionate about your work that you’re compelled to be a voluntary thought leader in the field [on your blog], even when you’re not being paid for it? My vote is for the voluntary thought leader.”

Monica O’Brien, a business-technology professional in Chicago, blogs about young professionals and business technology. “Through my blog and social media accounts like Twitter and LinkedIn, I’ve received multiple leads on job opportunities for both contract work and corporate positions in my area,” she says. “In all cases, the company has found me and requested a résumé.”

Mari Feazel, who graduated last month from Chapman University, wants to work in public relations in Orange County, Calif. Instead of a blog, she has created a personal website to showcase her résumé and portfolio to employers. When she applies for jobs, she includes a link to her website. It’s also on her business card, résumé header, and e-mail signature.

“I think I’m a pioneer,” Ms. Feazel says. “Every time I bring it up to friends and classmates they react with surprise. The concept hasn’t become very widespread.”

Even so, she says she has received “great feedback” on it. One recruiter, impressed with her approach, set up an interview with a large public relations firm.

Calling a Web presence “unbelievably powerful,” Mr. Dubiel says, “Even gainfully employed people need to build their network. The quicker you can start building that, the less chance you’ll be out of a job for a long time.”

Blogging tips for people between jobs

Rebounding from a job loss can be a long, difficult process. But according to Martha Finney, blogging can serve as an effective tool in the hunt for new work. For those interested in trying this strategy, she offers these suggestions:

•Make sure your blog features commentary that is timely and well thought-out. If you have an idea that moves your profession forward, so much the better.

•Try to find interesting, positively oriented topics.

•Stay away from topics that are so controversial they might risk alienating a potential employer.

•Weigh in on other people’s blogs.

•Blog frequently. Demonstrate by your activity on your blog that you really love your career.

Posted by: Patrick | January 30, 2009

Is FriendFeed the Next Conversation Platform?

Is FriendFeed the Next Conversation Platform?

Posted using ShareThis

I suppose I shouldn’t expect too much here, but why can’t the GOP come up with a social media strategy whose primary goal is to enlarge the party, not just connect a set of declining influencers in the political marketspace.  It’s not about the number of friends, it’s about the number of influencers and tastemakers that make up one’s social network.  On that matter, the GOP is in desparate need of something new and relevant.  Not being one to just be a complainer, I’m steadily working on it so stay tuned. — Patrick

Need a Real Sponsor here

Playing Catch-Up, the GOP Is All Atwitter About the Internet

Republican Hopefuls Ponder a ‘Tech Gap’; Chuck DeVore’s ‘Tweets’ Raise Campaign Cash

At a recent debate, the candidates to become chairman of the Republican National Committee were asked — after rattling off how many guns they own — whether they have any “followers” on Twitter, the popular online social network for short messages.

They didn’t miss a beat.

“Yes, the number is growing last time I checked — 300 to 400,” replied candidate Michael Steele, a former lieutenant governor of Maryland. Users of the site keep track of posts, or “tweets,” from other users by becoming their followers.

Another candidate, Katon Dawson, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, said he would be Twittering away at that very moment if it weren’t for the debate rules. “I’m just not doing it today because you told us we couldn’t,” he said.

RNC Chair Candidates on the Web

Click on number of contacts for link to candidate’s page.

Facebook friends Twitter followers Blog Rebuild the Party contacts
Saul Anuzis 3309 3645 yes 73
Ken Blackwell 4998 2443 NA 159
Katon Dawson 784 1192 NA no
Mike Duncan NA NA yes 2
Chip Saltsman NA 662 yes no
Michael Steele 3865 952 yes no

Source: Topconservativesontwitter.org

Then Ken Blackwell, a former secretary of state of Ohio, trumped them both. “I do Twitter, but let me just say I have 4,000 friends on Facebook, which is probably more than these two guys put together, but who’s counting?”

As the Republican Party rebuilds after its defeat at the polls in November, the discussion has centered not so much on honing its message as on messaging — on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace. In previous elections, the GOP often used technology in targeting voters more effectively than Democrats did; now the party is playing catch-up. RNC members, meeting in Washington, are scheduled to elect a party chairman on Friday.

“When you get beat, you look at where you got beat and double down on improving that area,” says Cyrus Krohn, the RNC’s director of e-campaigning. “The Internet is the place you can look at and say there’s room for improvement.”

Within days of the election, a technology consultant in Nashville, Tenn., started a Web site devoted to getting Republicans on Twitter, spotlighting which of the 168 RNC voting-members use the tool (last count: 20). A conservative strategist issued a 10-point action plan for rebuilding the party, declaring the No. 1 priority to be “winning the technology war with the Democrats.”

Mike Duncan, the incumbent RNC chairman running for re-election, was pressed during a recent interview with conservative talk-radio host Hugh Hewitt about the perceived “tech gap” between the two parties.

After Mr. Duncan, 57, called the gap a “big myth,” Mr. Hewitt pressed him.

“Are you on Twitter, by the way, Mike Duncan?” asked Mr. Hewitt, himself a heavy Twitterer.

“I do not Twitter,” replied Mr. Duncan, who explained that he doesn’t like to be distracted by Twitter while talking to people. Many like to use the tool during conferences or other events. “But we have the capability here in the building — a lot of the guys here do it.”

He added that he does carry two BlackBerrys and enjoys using a Kindle, the handheld device for downloading digital books.

Some Republicans worry that all the tech talk is overshadowing more fundamental tasks, like recruiting new candidates and broadening the party’s appeal. The Obama-Biden campaign’s innovative use of new online tools, namely social networking, texting and video, helped raise money and organize volunteers. But the percentage of voters contacted by the campaign was about the same as the Democratic presidential ticket did fours years before, according to some surveys, they point out.

“If there’s someone out there who votes for the candidate who Twitters more, then we need to take away his voter-registration card,” says Michael Palmer, who headed the new media operations for the McCain-Palin campaign.

[Assemblyman Chuck DeVore checks his PDA during the debate over a Democratic state budget proposal at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2008.] Associated Press

Assemblyman Chuck DeVore checks his PDA during a budget debate in Sacramento, Calif., in December.

With some exceptions, Sen. John McCain’s campaign incorporated the same new tech features as its Democratic rivals, he argues. But more people used the Democratic ticket’s social-networking tools because its supporters tended to be younger, he says.

“Our soccer moms might pay their bills online, but they probably won’t spend six hours a day on Facebook,” says Mr. Palmer, 28.

Jon Henke, who advised former Tennessee Republican Sen. Fred Thompson on new-media efforts last year in his brief presidential run, agrees tech savviness is only a means to an end.

“The party right now is like someone seeing their neighbor buy a shiny new truck, and wanting one, too,” says Mr. Henke, 34. “But then not realizing the neighbor has something to haul.”

He added the Internet’s bottom-up nature is more suited to the opposition and grass-roots insurgents, something Republicans are now forced to become.

Few have internalized that message more than a little-known California assemblyman named Chuck DeVore.

The 46-year-old former aerospace-company executive has already begun contesting the U.S. Senate seat held by Democrat Barbara Boxer, who faces re-election in 2010, by putting much of his daily routine online.

A Multitasker

He regularly updates his Facebook status on his BlackBerry, which automatically appears on his Twitter account, as well as on the site devoted to getting Republicans on Twitter, called topconservativesontwitter.org. (His 924 followers rank him 389th on that site.)

Mr. DeVore says his campaign, with little funding and facing a well-known incumbent, depends on steadily building word of mouth. He says he has modeled his campaign on that of President Barack Obama, who is often referred to as the first “Internet president.”

“Chuck is using his nuclear-powered lawn mower while his faithful dog supervises,” he posted Sunday afternoon, referring to the electricity in his neighborhood coming from a nearby nuclear power station. Mr. DeVore supports the use of nuclear energy.

But the constant posting has led to more than idle chatter. His commentary on everything from greenhouse-gas emissions to laws banning cellphone use in cars have led to national television appearances on shows including “Dr. Phil” and “Nova.”

[Chuck DeVore]

Chuck DeVore

He couldn’t afford to pay for similar publicity through traditional radio or TV advertising, he says, particularly over such a long campaign.

Raising a Few Bucks

He believes he’s the first politician to raise money on Twitter, estimating he received more than $1,600 in 24 hours in early December, with an average donation of close to $20. Much of that effort was led by his first hire, Justin Hart, a former blogger for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

“We don’t expect to raise big dollars from this, but we do get street cred and a base to build on,” says Mr. Hart, 37, who joined Mr. DeVore after several other tech strategists turned him down.

Mr. DeVore has written an online movie review for a conservative Hollywood Web site to gain name recognition in that traditionally liberal town. He called Tom Cruise’s “Valkyrie” a film with “soul and dignity.” He first developed his online promotional skills earlier this decade in marketing a novel he co-wrote, called “China Attacks,” about an invasion of Taiwan.

A campaign consultant of Mrs. Boxer says the three-term Democratic senator also uses a variety of online tools and has collected more than 300,000 email addresses of supporters. Some well-known Republicans could soon enter the race, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard Co. boss. But Mr. DeVore thinks his online approach gives him a chance.

“There are still a fair number of Republicans that haven’t thought about using these things yet,” says Mr. DeVore. “I say to them, ‘Look, it won’t make a bad candidate good, but you need to start doing this.’”

Write to Christopher Rhoads at christopher.rhoads@wsj.com

Posted by: Patrick | February 25, 2009

A bitter-Tweet Night for the GOP

A bitter-Tweet night for the GOP
By: Tim Grieve
February 24, 2009 10:46 PM EST

As President Barack Obama delivered his unofficial State of the Union address Tuesday night, some Republicans at the Capitol and elsewhere provided harsh reviews by Twitter – at least until they did a 180 to adopt a more respectful tone.Early on during Obama’s speech, the office of Texas Republican Rep. Joe Barton sent out a Tweet saying: “Aggie basketball game is about to start on espn2 for those of you that aren’t going to bother watching pelosi smirk for the next hour.”

That Tweet was followed minutes later by another: “Disregard that last Tweet from a staffer.”

Republican Rep. John Culberson of Texas warned during the speech: “Hold onto your wallet America.” A short while later, he added: “We are at war — seems to me honoring our troops should come on page one rather than the end of the speech.”

But just three minutes after that, Culberson seemed to get the message that his message might not be playing well outside the chamber. “This is a great privilege to be here and I will try hard to find ways to work together while preserving my core principles,” he Tweeted.

Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, weighing in from afar, mixed praise with snarky criticism throughout the evening. He said Obama’s “call for education reform is encouraging and if he is willing to fight for it would be historic,” that “Electronic health records are a good cause” and that “Energy healthcare and education are powerful zones for americans to focus on and if president obama is willing to innovate we should help.”

But Gingrich said Obama’s shout-out to Vice President Joe Biden – “Nobody messes with Joe” — as well as his smile and his handshake with Pelosi resembled “a democratic pep rally not a state of the union—sophomoric and silly.” He said that “Speaker Pelosi standing up to applaud the private jet line while she flies around in a government jet at taxpayer expense verges on bizarre.”

© 2009 Capitol News Company, LLC
Posted by: Patrick | February 27, 2009

Higher Taxes: Will The Republicans Cry Wolf Again?

Food for thought and debate. In my opinion, until the GOP becomes equally as known for constructive ways to trim the cost of government as it is for tax cuts, we’re going to have a growing credibility problem with the political marketspace.

Forbes.com

Notations
Higher Taxes: Will The Republicans Cry Wolf Again?
Bruce Bartlett, 02.27.09, 12:01 AM ET

Yesterday, President Obama issued his first detailed budget. Among its most controversial proposals is a significant increase in taxes, especially on those with upper incomes. Obama also proposes a cap-and-trade system to reduce pollution that is in essence a broad-based energy tax.

Republicans will undoubtedly make extravagant claims about the detrimental economic effect of these higher taxes. When one hears these claims, however, it is worth remembering that they said the same things in years past and none of their dire predictions came to pass.

According to a recent Treasury Department study, Ronald Reagan proposed the largest peacetime tax increase in American history as part of a budget deal to get the federal deficit under control. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) of 1982 was signed into law on Sept. 3, and most of its provisions took effect on Jan. 1, 1983.

During debate on TEFRA, many conservatives predicted economic disaster. They argued that raising taxes in the midst of a severe recession was exactly the wrong thing to do. “Every school child knows you don’t raise taxes in a recession unless you want to make it worse,” The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial page warned. Said Rep. Newt Gingrich, “I think it will make the economy sicker.” The Chamber of Commerce of the U.S. said it had “no doubt that it will curb the economic recovery everyone wants.”

Looking at the data, however, it is very hard to see any evidence that TEFRA had a negative effect on growth. Indeed, one could easily make a case that its enactment stimulated growth. As one can see, the economy’s growth rates after TEFRA took effect were among the fastest in history.

Year/Quarter Real GDP Growth
1982 III

-1.5%

1982 IV

0.4%

1983 I

5.0%

1983 II

9.3%

1983 III

8.1%

1983 IV

8.4%

1984 I

8.1%

1984 II

7.1%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The unemployment rate also peaked just before TEFRA took effect at 10.8% in December 1982. Throughout 1983, it fell steadily to 8.3% by year’s end. The unemployment rate continue to fall through 1984, reaching 7.3% by December.

In 1993, Bill Clinton proposed another major tax increase. Perhaps because it was initiated by a Democrat, conservatives were even more convinced that it would bring about economic disaster. In an Aug. 3, 1993, media fact sheet, John Goodman of the National Center for Policy Analysis predicted the following results from the higher taxes: Capital formation would be reduced by $1.76 trillion through 1998, 1.34 million fewer jobs would be created and the real GDP growth rate would be 0.4% lower than it otherwise would have been.

An examination of the data, however, shows that this forecast was totally wrong in every respect. The following table shows what happened after the 1993 tax increase was signed into law on Aug. 10.

Year/Quarter Real GDP Growth Gross Private Domestic Investment
1993 III

2.1%

0.0%

1993 IV

5.5%

22.3%

1994 I

4.1%

18.3%

1994 II

5.3%

25.5%

1994 III

2.3%

-6.9%

1994 IV

4.8%

19.9%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The unemployment rate was at 6.8% when the law was signed and fell steadily thereafter, reaching 5.5% by the end of 1994. By Clinton’s second term, the economy was booming to such an extent that the federal government began running large budget surpluses.

Of course, past experience doesn’t necessarily tell us what will happen in the future. Maybe this time, the conservative scaremongers will be right, and higher taxes will abort recovery and bring on a sharp economic setback such as happened in 1937.

But even if conservatives were willing to concede that Obama’s proposed tax increases won’t deepen or lengthen the recession, they would still oppose higher taxes because they cling blindly to the starve-the-beast theory, which says that if revenues are not allowed to rise, then pressure to reduce the deficit will be channeled into spending cuts.

The problem with this theory is that there is not one iota of evidence that starving the beast works. Under George W. Bush, federal revenues fell from 20.9% of GDP in 2000 to 17.7% in 2008, but spending rose from 18.4% of GDP to 20.9% over the same period.

Bill Niskanen of the libertarian Cato Institute thinks the starve-the-beast theory has actually had a perverse effect on spending. Because Republicans convinced themselves that the only thing they needed to do to restrain the growth of government was cut taxes, it caused them to become “casual about the sustained political discipline necessary to control federal spending.”

Republicans have also developed a certain mythology about Ronald Reagan’s administration. They think he held the line on taxes and that this forced Democrats to accept spending cuts. The evidence, however, could more easily be interpreted in the opposite direction: Democrats forced Reagan to raise taxes in return for insignificant spending cuts. He himself later lamented that none of the cuts in appropriations he had been promised by congressional Democrats were ever implemented.

As the table below demonstrates, Reagan signed into law major tax increases every year of his presidency after the first. By the end of his presidency, he took back half of the 1981 tax cut in the form of higher taxes. And it should also be noted that when confronted with a crisis in Social Security in 1983, Reagan endorsed a rescue plan drafted by Alan Greenspan that consisted almost entirely of higher taxes.

Legislated Tax Changes by Ronald Reagan as of 1988

Tax Cuts Billions of Dollars
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981

-264.4

Interest and Dividends Tax Compliance Act of 1983

-1.8

Federal Employees’ Retirement System Act of 1986

-0.2

Tax Reform Act of 1986

-8.9

Total Cumulative Tax Cuts

-275.3

Tax Increases Billions of Dollars
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982

+57.3

Highway Revenue Act of 1982

+4.9

Social Security Amendments of 1983

+24.6

Railroad Retirement Revenue Act of 1983

+1.2

Deficit Reduction Act of 1984

+25.4

Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985

+2.9

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985

+2.4

Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986

+0.6

Continuing Resolution for 1987

+2.8

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987

+8.6

Continuing Resolution for 1988

+2.0

Total Cumulative Tax Increases

+132.7

Source: Office of Management and Budget, FY1990 budget

Many of the same Republicans who today complain about Obama’s spending voted for every pork-barrel project proposed by any Republican during the years they controlled Congress, as well as voting for a vast expansion of Medicare spending in 2003 when the program was already bankrupt.

Among those voting to further bankrupt Medicare were such self-proclaimed protectors of the public purse as House Republican Leader John Boehner, House Republican Whip Eric Cantor and House Budget Committee Ranking Republican Paul Ryan. When they complain about Obama’s spending, they should be reminded that their vote to expand Medicare added $17.2 trillion to the nation’s long-term indebtedness, according to the latest report by Medicare’s trustees (Table III.C23).

None of this is meant to defend Obama’s tax increases. They must be judged on their own merits and in terms of the potential benefits of the programs they would fund. But when Republicans claim that higher taxes will destroy the economy, they should be reminded that they made the same argument in 1982 and 1993 and that the actual economic results were the opposite of what they predicted. And when they denounce Obama’s health plan for expanding the size of government, they should be asked how they voted on the Medicare bill in 2003.

Bruce Bartlett is a former Treasury Department economist and the author of Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action and Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.

It’s Social Marketing and You Don’t Even Know It

If you are trying to figure out how to integrate social media into your marketing mix, there are some great media properties to turn to for inspiration.

pbs1Traditional media has owned social marketing before we even coined the term social media.  If you think about it, PBS started it all.  They have shows like This Old House which engaged and educated you in home renovations and showcased products and services you could buy.

hgtv2Take this to current day and you have entire television networks dedicated to this like HGTV that have interactive sites, reality TV shows, and shows dedicated to blatant advertising in walking you through home shows or enticing you with items you must have.

oprah1Oprah through HARPO is another media outlet that has such a following through the TV program, website, and magazine that it can shape political opinion.  Audiences are active participants in the show through Skype, contributions through website outreach, and book clubs.  As Oprah brings information for women to better their lives, books are promoted, favorite things are showcased, movies are recommended, and personalities and experts are brought to rockstar status.

espn1The best example by far is the sports industry and ESPN.  Leveraging fantasy sports they have increased viewership and expanded their audience profile by engaging women through an interactive relationship that drives ad sales.

What I think other industries can learn from television networks is the primary rule of social media, relevance and engagement.  In each instance, PBS, ESPN, HGTV, and HARPO provides value to the audience then aligns advertising to the interest.  While traditional disruptive advertising still exists through commercials, the 40 or so minutes of programming per hour is still advertising and customers are engaged.  The advertising is so tightly woven with the experience, the audience is ignoring it at a conscious level but internalizing it so that what they’ve learned about products and services has shaped their purchasing patterns.

Even if specific brands aren’t provided, certain products get a huge lift in sales like commercial appliances and granite countertops did for kitchens. Secondary outlets like websites and magazines support the brand further, encouraging more participation and engagement, and provide additional avenues for advertising.  The networks are sustained through word of mouth of favorite programs and personalities.  In addition, they create word of mouth for products.  Audiences gain entertainment, advertisers gain exposure and sales.

The key for other industries that tend to leverage media outlets as opposed to owning them, is to create a similar experience for the customer.  Today, this is owned by bloggers and personal networks.  But, there is no reason why an industry like consumer packaged goods couldn’t provide micro networks.  I think the issue at times with many forays into social media of these brands is that they still approach them as ad placement tactics.  In addition, the goal of social media is not always a business objective but is, “get people to come to my fan page or follow me on Twitter”.  Also, non-related gimmics are used like points or sweepstakes to get promotional items.  Let’s take an example of a sports drink.  Instead of working on driving people to a fan page on facebook which either provides you with drink bottles, baseball caps, poor quality games, or worse, just a wall of promotion and fan one-liners, the page could help visitors to explore and discuss sports nutrition and fitness methods.  Sports groups could be available.  One for runners could have tools provided to share routes and events.

In the end, if you want people to interact with your brand, you need to give them a reason why.  On top of that, the reason to interact should also align to the reason why they are or should be interested in the brand in the first place.  Provide value in the experience, allow collaboration and personalization, relevance in the interaction, and you have a mechanism that will tighten brand affinity and add to the bottom line.

Posted by: Patrick | March 22, 2009

Resistance grows to Obama’s bigger government

I’ve talked to more than 20 independents and non-partisans (black and white) who voted for Obama in Nov, but have explicitly expressed buyer’s remorse.  At best, Obama’s administration appears to be a nod to style, tone and “non-stop campaigning”.  The substance of his “change you can believe in” is almost entirely bigger government, bigger deficits and bigger excuses about the “challenges he and his administration inherited”.

The problem though, is the GOP still lacks any real credibility to represent the public’s growing resistance.  The public in large part is on a runaway train without many options of how to stop it or just plain get off safely while it barrels on to disaster.

2010 needs to be a “CTRL ALT DEL” year.  Throw ‘em all out and start with a new group.

Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:01am EDT

By Tabassum Zakaria -Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A public furor over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money is fueling resistance to President Barack Obama‘s ambitious plans to extend government intervention in the U.S. private sector.

Republican opponents say his commitment of huge sums to try to revive the ailing economy is driven by a philosophical belief in greater government intrusion in many areas, from healthcare to education, dubbing it socialism.

Obama is pursuing these policies just 13 years after President Bill Clinton, a fellow Democrat, disarmed Republican opponents by declaring: “The era of big government is over.”

As the enormous cost of the Obama’s effort to stimulate the economy grows, many are weighing just how far government should be extending its powers.

“We’re in the midst of a huge political battle, which is being obscured behind a financial crisis,” said Bruce Kogut, professor of ethics and corporate governance at Columbia University. “If the financial crisis wasn’t here we’d be having this battle anyway.”

“The question I think we need to figure out as a country is what is the proper role of government?” said David Moss, professor of economic history at Harvard Business School.

Regulation of the financial system to contain risk has not been adequate or effective, he said. “So on the financial front we want to try to find a Goldilocks scenario of not too much and not too little.”

Obama administration officials have had to fend off accusations they were too easy on the financial industry, after the insurance giant AIG paid out millions of dollars in bonuses after accepting billions of dollars in taxpayer funds.

CHARGES OF SOCIALISM

Airing charges of socialism, opponents have sought to turn public opinion against Obama’s big spending policies, including a record $3.55 trillion budget proposed for next year and a $787 billion economic stimulus package.

In the United States calling someone a socialist is often an insult, striking at the heart of American individualism and raising the fear of government fingers in everyone’s business.

The word’s powerful negative connotation prompted Obama to call The New York Times back after an interview to belatedly respond to a question on whether he was a socialist.

“It was hard for me to believe that you were entirely serious about that socialist question,” Obama said, defending his policies as consistent with free-market principles.

“The fact that we’ve had to take these extraordinary measures and intervene is not an indication of my ideological preference, but an indication of the degree to which lax regulation and extravagant risk-taking has precipitated a crisis,” he said.

Kogut said the socialist tag was misleading. “I think it’s a weapon, I don’t think it’s honest,” he said.

But analysts say the United States could learn from experiences in countries like France, Germany, and Sweden where governments have larger roles in business and social policy.

Along the political spectrum there are experts who believe that nationalization of failing U.S. banks — a prospect that has alarmed some conservatives — should be seriously considered. But Obama has so far avoided that step.

NO “RADICAL” MOVES

“President Obama, is he failing to move in this direction fully because he feels himself to be vulnerable on this socialist terminology which is being used?” Kogut said.

Sweden in the 1990s nationalized two banks, put their bad assets aside, and sold them back to the private sector at a small profit, he said. Both France and Germany provide more government aid for healthcare and the jobless than the United States.

Slinging the socialist term at Obama is more a symptom of the political fight in Washington over how to cope with the financial crisis and where to direct funds.

“It’s not part of the American tradition, and yes socialism by and large remains a dirty word here, even the left shies clear of it,” said Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Obama came to power on a wave of popular support with a strong record as a social liberal in the U.S. Senate. One of his goals is to redistribute some of the country’s wealth, which appeals to those who say they want action to counter a growing gap between the rich and poor.

Moss said Obama had so far not made any “radical moves” given the extent of the crisis.

“I think he’s trying to reframe the role of government,” Moss said. “There’s actually quite a general consensus that we veered too far in one direction, that is reluctance to use government authority when needed.”

(Editing by David Storey)

Posted by: Patrick | March 30, 2009

Blue Dog Membership List Released

Blue Dog Membership List Released

Posted using ShareThis

Posted by: Patrick | May 4, 2009

ESPN An appreciation of Jack Kemp

ESPN An appreciation of Jack Kemp

Posted using ShareThis

A true compassionate conservative whose intellect and passion for ideas will be missed by the body politic.

Posted by: Patrick | May 18, 2009

NYT: Hulu Questions Count of Its Audience

May 15, 2009

Hulu Questions Count of Its Audience

Does Hulu, the Web’s most popular place for TV viewing, reach nine million people a month or 42 million?

Millions of dollars in advertising revenue may hinge on the answer. But no one seems to know for sure how big the site’s audience is.

Any way the streams of shows like “Fringe” and “30 Rock” are counted, it is clear that Hulu’s growth has been explosive, up 490 percent year over year, according to Nielsen Online. Hulu executives, however, are fretting that the company, one of the leading purveyors of ratings data, is undercounting the site’s visitors. They say Nielsen’s numbers hurt Hulu’s perception among advertisers and the press.

While Nielsen reported 8.9 million visitors to Hulu in March, another measurement firm, comScore, counted 42 million. Exacerbating the confusion, Nielsen’s numbers for April show Hulu losing audience while still managing to add video views, also known as streams.

The wildly divergent numbers demonstrate the nascency of the market for online video measurement. It’s “still the wild wild West,” said Rob Davis, a leader of the interactive video practice at OgilvyInteractive.

Given the growing importance of video advertising, the numbers are coming under more scrutiny. While video ads are only a tiny portion of online ad spending in the United States, the research firm eMarketer projects that they will account for more than a billion dollars of spending this year, up from $734 million last year.

“To the extent that the actual success is undercounted, it reduces confidence among advertisers to spend more dollars,” said Murgesh Navar, the founder of VoloMedia, an advertising firm that specializes in online and portable audio and video.

Web publishers are never entirely happy with the online ratings they receive from measurement companies. Their internal numbers, collected via clicks to their servers, are almost always higher than the third-party estimates. But the third-party figures act as the currency for promoting sites and selling ads, making them the lifeblood of the industry.

For Hulu, month-over-month growth is arguably the most important metric. The company, which was founded in late 2007 as a joint venture of NBC Universal, owned by General Electric and Vivendi, and the News Corporation, added the Walt Disney Company as an equity shareholder last month. Free, ad-supported episodes of ABC shows will soon be added to the lineup of NBC and Fox episodes.

In Hollywood, Hulu is seen as a possible solution to the fragmentation of TV viewing, because it allows fans to catch up on episodes they missed, as well as a potential problem for the broadcasting business model, because it may further erode traditional TV viewing over time.

“Broadcast still trumps online from a financial perspective,” Anne Sweeney, the president of the Disney-ABC Television Group, said in an interview last month. But she said online streaming “is additive and is growing.”

But how much is it growing? On Thursday, Nielsen Online said Hulu served up 373 million video streams in April, up from 348 million in March and 309 million in February. But Nielsen also said Hulu’s unique visitors had declined, from 9.5 million in February to 8.9 million in March to 7.4 million in April.

While Hulu did experience an immense spike in streams after it advertised during the Super Bowl in February, other measurement firms, like Quantcast, have not detected an equivalent drop in visitors. In e-mail exchanges with Nielsen this week obtained by The New York Times, Hulu staff members said they were frustrated by Nielsen’s extrapolation of the unique visitor number.

The staff members complained that reporters and media buyers frequently used the Nielsen data to describe the audience for Hulu, sometimes in negative ways.

Hulu declined to comment on the e-mail messages. But in a statement, Jean-Paul Colaco, the senior vice president for advertising at Hulu, said “there is more work that can be done with all of our research providers to ensure that online video metrics are accurately represented to users and clients.” Mr. Colaco said he was confident that Nielsen would continue to improve its measurement.

It is a pivotal time for Hulu. Analysts say the site has struggled to sell out its advertising inventory amid the rapid gains in traffic. Visitors often see public service announcements in place of paid advertisements when they watch episodes and short clips.

In addition to the advertising concerns, traffic data can also affect content owners’ decisions about whether to put more or less video online, he said. Nielsen counts video streams by using “beacons,” which inform the company whenever a video starts playing. But it counts visitors and provides demographic data by monitoring the Web use of about 200,000 panel members, whose online behavior and demographics are weighted. Dave Osborn, a senior vice president for Nielsen Online, said the company blended two separate panels: a large one that is recruited online and a smaller, more scientific panel of 20,000 that is recruited randomly and “which we believe better reflects the overall universe.”

Nielsen shies away from recruiting panelists solely online, as “that would result in biased data,” Mr. Osborn said.

Mr. Osborn would not comment on specific clients like Hulu.

Mr. Davis said the current skirmish was another reason that the young industry needed a set of agreed-upon standards for measurement. “We struggle with this on a daily basis,” he said, adding that he tried to use multiple sources of data. “Industrywide, we need to solve this,” he said.

In video games, Nintendo starts the trends and then the copycats pile in. At some point, gamers get jaded and the trend collapses.

Nintendo made the exercise-gaming trend into a phenomenon with Wii Fit, which has sold more than 10 million copies since its launch a year ago. That’s more copies than the original Halo. Now other companies are piling into the exercise game craze as couch potatoes get off the couch. Sega announced with Daisy Fuentes Pilates today as one of its new titles for the Nintendo Wii this summer.

Electronic Arts is also about to launch its EA Sports Active title, an elaborate exercise training program for the Wii. Sega is also creating a new winter olympics title based on its Mario & Sonic at the Olympics franchise. Those are just a few of many exercise titles in the works.

Is it too much of a good thing? Is it possible that a hundred different exercise games could succeed? You never know which games those 50 million Wii fans are going to buy. It’s not clear how many of those Wii fans are pilates devotees, but the Wii has appealed to a broader demographic than typical game consoles.

Thanks in no small part to the continuing popularity of Wii Fit, the overall exercise game trend continues to gather steam, said Ben Sawyer, who runs the Games for Health Project.

“When you get Electronic Arts betting their sports brand on exercise games, that’s significant,” he said.

A fifth annual Games for Health conference  will be held in Boston on June 11 and 12th. It is expected to draw 250 people to 55 different sessions. Exercise games is one of the five topics at the conference, which also addresses brain-training games such as Nintendo’s Brain Age and other therapeutic games. If the video game companies can keep offering something new to users that helps them enjoy themselves while getting some exercise, there is no reason a trend this big should run out of steam.

With the Daisy Fuentes title, you can get a private Pilates class in your own living room. It uses the Wii Balance Board (introduced with Wii Fit) and gives real-time feedback to improve the position and moves of the player. The workout can be customized to level of experience and players can play in Spanish or English. The game is coming out this summer and is being developed by Collision Studios in Los Angeles for Sega.

Chris Shipley and I hosted a breakfast last week with 16 leading Silicon Valley investors about the state of the start-up community.

It was frank and engaging.

Some participants requested their comments remain off the record. Below are summaries of some of the remarks of participants who agreed to be referenced.

Here are the two main trends I picked up from the conversation:

1) The art of VC dealmaking is changing — Investors are no longer just investing in the two guys just of out Stanford with a new idea. They’re doing things like joining with boutique investment banks to craft new sorts of financings, or hooking up with entrepreneurs to buy portions of companies and spinning them out. (Examples: Real estate company HomeAway raised $250 million to conduct a rollup strategy. Another group of investors bought StumbleUpon, spinning it out from eBay a year and a half after eBay bought it.)

2) VCs are in serious danger of strangling companies by depriving them of cash in their early years — There was significant disagreement between investors about how much companies should be allowed to go into the red while building their businesses. Some investors said they prefer to invest in businesses that can be profitable quickly. Others feel this is short-sighted, and runs the risk of forcing them away from building bold new platforms. Companies with big ideas (Facebook, for example) should focus on growing those ideas and not worry about being profitable from day one or two. See bold below for highlights on this theme.

The breakfast was part of our preparation for the DEMO conference in September. Chris and I are looking for the very best companies to launch on a stage before the world. Here are some notes I took from some of the participants (not direct quotes).

Asheem Chandna of Greylock — He agrees that the nature of deals is changing. His firm bought public stock in a company (Aruba networks) for the first time ever. Public tech companies are cheap. His firm also has a couple of companies with large revenue increases in the first quarter, suggesting there’s opportunity even in the downturn. The online security sector, for example, is robust because of the continuous rise of new threats. Virtualization remains a key macro trend.

Rob Theis of Scale Venture Partners — Contrary to what we’ve seen in past downturns, there’s still a robust angel investor network willing to invest. However, these angels have gotten smarter. They’re getting close to actually resembling VCs in that they’re actually raising small funds. As for trends, there’s an increased awareness among the younger population for new technology. Kids are carrying RIM BlackBerrys very early, and they’re learning about computing much earlier, skipping the whole desktop learning process of the previous generation. He agreed with others about the trend towards new types of deals, including more spinouts, as companies focus on core competencies (Symantec focusing purely on security, for example). He’s concerned about clean-tech, because companies in the energy sector generally have higher capital investment requirements. A lot just won’t make it.

John Lee of Silicon Valley Bank — Big questions also surround the hardware sector, which requires large capital expenditures. Prospects of raising capital are not very good right now. Semiconductor companies, in particular, are facing a challenge. Later stage companies are increasingly seeking to work with groups like Inside Ventures (which is a new company trying to hook up mature private companies with institutional investors for investment in those companies while they’re still private, even though institutional investors have typically preferred to wait to invest in public companies).

David Chao of Doll Capital Management — A lot of what we’re seeing now is deja-vu from 2001, 2002 and 2003. The difference is that the value chain of capital has been restricted, which is making investors more panicky. The problems we’re having are caused by the subprime crisis, not tech. If you look around the corner, there are some interesting shifts going on, and he’s optimistic. One is that kids these days are playing on Facebook, and Facebook apps. They’re doing it on MySpace. These companies have become open platforms and are thriving. His guess is that Apple is going to fall flat on its face again for being too closed. Another trend: a lot of cleantech companies are going to die. However, in Europe and Japan, anything green sells. Finally, the globalization of technology is exciting.

Phil Sanderson of IDG Ventures — He’s going to do deals locally (responding to some VCs who said they were increasingly investing globally). He said there’s a migration of Silicon Valley companies to San Francisco over time. The original chip and computer wave decades ago saw most companies located in San Jose or Cupertino. Then the software boom was headquartered in Mountain View and Palo Alto. Now new media companies are locating in San Francisco. More than half the returns from his last fund were from companies within San Francisco, even though fewer than half of the companies he backed are actually located there. You’re seeing other SF firms emerge, such as Alsop-Louie and True Ventures. The amount of money a company needs to raise before getting to liquidity is about $10M, compared to $50 million during the bubble era a decade ago, and $20M before the bubble. The reduced costs today stem from things like open source, viral marketing, cheaper Web infrastructure. He gets scared if an early stage companies needs to raise more than $10M and agrees with others that new dealmaking is on the rise. More public companies should consider doing PIPEs (private investments in public entities).

Sergio Monsalve of Norwest Venture Partners — The venture industry, like its other financial industry brethren (hedge funds, ibanks, etc) are woven into the global economy. His view is that the VC industry will have be more globalized than today and will include more action in Asia. It will resemble later-stage investing. His firm has made as many early as late stage deals in the last six months. He hasn’t seen a tectonic shift in the industry that resembles the client-server or web movements that happened in previous decades. He doesn’t see the same sort of multiple returns on investments. He sees mobility and telepresence as interesting areas (his firm invested in LifeSize for conferencing, seeing it as a way to help people needing to travel).

Jeff Clavier, angel investor — He says things have changed significantly over the last last year in angel investing. Beginning in 2004 with the emergence of cheaper Web 2.0 technologies, angels backed a company with an initial check of $20,000 to $100,000 each, for a total angel round of about $250,000. It would then take another $500,000 or $1 million to get to market. Now that capital is scarce, he’s backing companies with slightly more money — $750,000 to $1.5 million –because they need to be able to get enough traction to be either attractive to venture capitalists or already profitable. Also, while before, a company needed about 500,000 users to prove it had traction, it now needs to have 1 million. So he’s funding a company to last it 24 months, enough for about 18 months of execution and then six months to look for capital. This is what keeps him awake at night: Are the new realities forcing him to build a company so cheaply that the company isn’t being given a chance to build a real business? By focusing on getting a company to profitability too early, investors may be stunting their ability to build real platforms. Prices are down 50 percent. A company raising a first round a year ago at a $4M pre, would today raise at a $2M pre. (He’s got a $15 million fund, raised in mid 2007. He’s done 37 deals from that fund so far, and his goal is to have done 50 total by next year. He’s done five deals this year.)

Reid Hoffman, angel investor, Chairman of LinkedIn — Typically, angel investors have used their “house money” to make investments. When the market dries up, they stop investing. Many have been uncertain about how to move to become more of a VC (by raising a fund that is not based on house money). The good news is that many angels are now making that transition.  He started LinkedIn in 2002 because he thought social networking was going to change the way people do business. Now, in addition to that, there’s been a knock-off effect: People are using tools in the cloud, applying more data and analytics to their businesses, making them more efficient. With the emergence of Facebook’s platform, he decided to invest in social games. He backed Zynga. Much of the transformation in this area is still being played out.

Gus Tai of Trinity Ventures — One big problem has been the over-capitalization of the VC sector. He points to respected venture firm Sequoia Capital as an example of how firms have become larger. Its fund in 1990 was merely $31M. By 2000, during the bubble, it became $1 billion. Now, in 2009, it’s $450 million — down from the excess of the bubble, but still significantly higher than the early years. The shakeout will continue. A few years ago, Harvard professor Josh Lerner chose 40 VCs firms to put in a database he used to analyze the VC sector. However, of those 40 firms, 10 are no longer in business and five have changed their business model. Tai says he thinks another 15 will disappear over the next three years. That means entrepreneurs may be wasting more time raising money, because VC firms will be less decisive as they change their model, or back off from investing.

Josh Hannah of Matrix Partners — He’s brand new to investing, having only recently joined the firm. He says he’s been talking with his new colleagues in the industry and finds that they are enamored with investing in capital efficient businesses. He said entrepreneurs are thus trying to be more capital efficient in order to get that funding. However, he suggested they may be putting the cart before horse. He said that successful entrepreneurs have always sought to be capital efficient. He spent $100,000 at eHow, and returned capital to investors within 1.5 months. Survey Monkey was boostrapped: Nine guys built a business that had $40M in revenue and $30M Ebita and took it to an investor who paid a nine-figure valuation to invest.

David Hornick of August CapitalHe vehemently disagreed with Hannah, saying he doesn’t think there are a lot of interesting companies in that category. Maybe three? When companies get interesting, they often require an enormous amount of capital. He did say the model of VC investing has to change. He agreed with Clavier that the “just-in-time” VC backing of companies that had previously been supported by angels has disappeared. He fears that the 18 to 24 month “runway” set up by Clavier and other angels for a company to find backing from VCs may really be a proxy for “forever.” In other words, startups are being forced to recognize they won’t get funding and are curtailing their ambitions. Fewer real businesses get built. When you focus on getting cash-flow positive on $100,000, you’re under-optimizing.

Justin Fishner-Wolfson of The Founders Fund — Uncertainty has clouded the fortunes of every player in the cycle. If a venture firm doesn’t know where its money is going to come from, even if it’s a good venture firm, then the angel is going to feel the same uncertainly, and then the entrepreneurs are too. He’s worried that many entrepreneurs are getting sidetracked by going after dollars from the U.S. stimulus package in areas such as cleantech, healthcare or genomics, for example, creating businesses where they get tax rebates if people buy more of their service. Washington’s spending may be creating a massive dislocation. He also says the tools for building a company have never been easier to get. Before, you needed to rely on an IT guy. Now you can just call on services provided by companies like Amazon, and you don’t have to do any work.

Michael Goldberg of Mohr Davidow Ventures — He’s investing in healthcare companies. He’s looking for capital efficient companies that have no risk from FDA regulation, especially those using measurement, computation, information technology and material science in new ways. He’s looking at personalized medicine. He’s looking at companies building wearable devices, such as those that use wireless and bluetooth technology to message vital sign information straight to the cloud.

Posted by: Patrick | May 19, 2009

AdAge: ESPN Integrates Video Player on YouTube

ESPN Integrates Video Player on YouTube

Cable Sports Giant Adds Yet Another Outlet to Its Multiplatform Sell

Published: May 19, 2009

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — As the Walt Disney Co. begins to embrace YouTube and Hulu, ESPN will become the first media company to integrate its own video player on YouTube on July 15, as well as the first network to offer pre-roll advertising on the video site. The deal was just one of the multiplatform milestones the sports cable network announced at its upfront presentation to advertisers at New York’s Nokia Theater today.

(from l.) 'SportsCenter' anchor Steve Levy; Ed Erhardt, ESPN's president-customer marketing and sales; 'SportsCenter' anchor Hannah Storm; and 'Mayne Street' host Kenny Mayne
(from l.) ‘SportsCenter’ anchor Steve Levy; Ed Erhardt, ESPN’s president-customer marketing and sales; ‘SportsCenter’ anchor Hannah Storm; and ‘Mayne Street’ host Kenny Mayne

Photo Credit: ESPN

The “New Markets of Time” was the phrase given to ESPN’s aggressive programming strategies across its cable, online, radio, magazine, mobile and broadband properties, designed to give equal value to sports fans that catch their favorite teams online during the workday as to those who watch on TV in prime time.”We’re programming dayparts as if ESPN.com was a new network,” Sean Bratches, ESPN’s exec VP-sales and marketing, told the crowd. “We want to make ESPN and our partners’ brands available to fans in every conceivable way.”

Even more sports
ESPN will soon have even more big-ticket games to program its various screens with new, exclusive deals for the FIFA World Cup and the Bowl Championship Series and all four rounds of the British Open signed up for 2010. With rights to all four of tennis’ grand slams, ESPN will unveil “Love 30,” a new online feature for August’s U.S. Open coverage that allows fans can catch up with coverage from the last 30 minutes of highlights on ESPN.com and ESPN Mobile.

Also newly inked are deals with Comcast to distribute ESPN360.com, ESPN’s broadband video site, across the top cable operator’s 17 million broadband subscriber base, putting ESPN360 in more than 40 million of the 60 million broadband homes by the fall. Additionally, college-based sibling ESPNU will be distributed by Comcast and DirecTV, making it available to a total 46 million subscribers.

Mr. Bratches told Ad Age that ESPN cuts 70% to 75% of its upfront deals based on multiple platforms, a ratio that he anticipates to increase this year. “We’re selling more ideas than schedules, and ideas that include multimedia,” he said.

Jeremy Carey, director-sports media for Omnicom agency Optimum Sports, liked the presentation’s emphasis on screens. “The majority of our buying entails multiple platforms. Very little buying we do now is just TV,” he said. YouTube, however, remains heretofore uncharted territory for clients that don’t want to be associated with less-than-professional content. “We’ll see what they do with it,” Mr. Carey said of ESPN’s upcoming channel.

Ratings gains
ESPN enters the upfront in a stronger position than last year. Ratings were up 3% season to date, making it the third highest-rated cable network, with adults 25 to 54 and women 18 to 49 showing the biggest gains. In 2008, it took a big hit from the financial woes of General Motors and Chrysler, which spent 24.5% and 35.5% less on the network, according to TNS Media Intelligence. ESPN grossed $1.54 billion in ad revenue in 2008, a 0.1% decrease from 2007.

“We’re a very good buy if you want to reach adults, making that case because the women we reach as part of that adult buy are generally light TV watchers, hard to reach, upscale and not easy to find when you’re buying a traditional broadcast prime time environment,” said Ed Erhardt, ESPN’s president-customer marketing and sales.

One more screen ESPN is looking to add to its arsenal is the big screen. ESPN Films will make the festival circuits with documentaries such as the Peabody Award-winning “Black Magic” and Spike Lee’s “Kobe Doin Work.” This October, the network will premiere “30 for 30,” a series of documentaries chronicling some of the biggest stories in ESPN’s 30 years on air, told by filmmakers such as Peter Berg, Ron Shelton, Brett Morgen and Barry Levinson. The films will air with limited commercial interruption and will help defend the “E” in ESPN competitors like Spike have made in-roads in sharing.

“The films are another way to reach people who are passionate about sports, and to be expository in our storytelling put facts down in a linear fashion. Sometimes in the world we live in things move kind of quickly,” Keith Clinkscales, ESPN’s senior VP-content development and enterprises, told Ad Age. “It takes a great deal of work to cover all the happenings in sports, and every now and then it’s great to take a moment to look at someone’s stories career and pause.”

americanidol

This article was co-authored by John Cole and Katie Perry from 360i, a digital marketing agency that drives results for premier brands through insights, ideas, and technologies. You can follow 360i on Twitter.

Everyone thinks they know who is going to win American Idol this season: your mom, your 12-year-old sister, about half of the people you follow on Twitter (Twitter reviews) and even Simon Cowell all seem to agree that California rocker Adam Lambert will be this year’s champ.

Well, now you can add digital marketers to the growing list of Adam-believers – but for a different reason.

What if you could predict the winner of American Idol before the final votes were tallied – without having followed the season’s contest or listened to the pundits – by analyzing online search trends alone? Are search trends really a proxy for what will happen in the future?

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Posted by: Patrick | May 21, 2009

eMarketer Revises US Social Network Ad Spend Estimate

eMarketer Revises US Social Network Ad Spend Estimate

MAY 13, 2009

Spending predicted to fall 3% in 2009

NEW YORK (May 13, 2009)—Social networks continue to draw in millions of users, but advertising has not kept pace. eMarketer forecasts that total social network ad spending in the US will fall 3% to $1.1 billion in 2009, from $1.2 billion in 2008. This is a significant turnaround from previous years, when spending grew an estimated 33% in 2008 and 129% in 2007.The primary reason for the change is a projected falloff in ad spending on MySpace, which accounts for nearly one-half of US social network ad spending. In December 2008, eMarketer estimated that marketers would spend $630 million to advertise on MySpace in the US in 2009. Now eMarketer projects that US ad spending on MySpace will reach just $495 million this year, down 15% from the estimated $585 million MySpace generated in 2008.

News Corp. executives said in a May 6 conference call with financial analysts that ad revenues fell 16% at Fox Interactive Media (FIM) in the January-March 2009 quarter, compared with the previous year. MySpace makes up the bulk of FIM’s revenues.

“MySpace is still the largest single social networking site when it comes to ad spending, but its fortunes have changed dramatically over the past few months,” said eMarketer senior analyst Debra Aho Williamson. MySpace’s CEO Chris DeWolfe stepped down in April as new CEO Owen Van Natta, a former Facebook executive, joined the company.

The challenges facing MySpace do not necessarily mean that other companies operating in the social network space will face similar problems. Facebook, for example, is expected to increase its US ad revenues 9% in 2009, to $230 million, while US ad spending on widgets and applications is projected to reach $70 million, up 75% from 2008 (albeit from a very small base). US spending on all other social network sites combined is expected to rise 1% to $345 million.

“Although ad spending on social networks is diminishing, marketers are still very focused on using social networks for other purposes, such as public relations or customer relationship management,” said Ms. Williamson.

Simultaneous with the revised US estimates for 2009, eMarketer is issuing—for the first time—estimates for ad spending on MySpace and Facebook outside of the US.

Overall, marketers worldwide are expected to spend $520 million to advertise on MySpace in 2009, with $495 million coming from the US and $25 million from other markets. International spending on Facebook is expected to reach $70 million this year, for a total of $300 million in 2009.

Although MySpace got a head start over Facebook in selling advertising outside of the US, its international operations have struggled lately. Meanwhile, Facebook’s international user base has grown rapidly and it has been ramping up ad sales operations in several countries.

eMarketer will issue its next full forecast of US social network ad spending through 2013 in June.

For more information on social networks, or to speak with Ms. Williamson, contact Samson Adepoju.

Note: Ad spending estimate includes Websites where social networking is the primary activity (e.g., MySpace, Facebook); social networks linked to portals such as Google or Yahoo!; and niche social networks devoted to a specific hobby or interest. Does not include virtual worlds, YouTube or marketer-created social networks. In all cases, the figures include spending on display, video, search and other forms of advertising appearing within social network environments; fees marketers pay to social network sites for profile pages, promotions, etc.; and fees paid to develop, distribute or sponsor widgets and applications appearing within social network sites. Excludes other sources of revenue, such as e-commerce.

About eMarketer
eMarketer is “The First Place to Look” for research and analysis on digital marketing and media. eMarketer aggregates and analyzes research from over 3,000 sources, and brings it together in analyst reports, daily articles and the most comprehensive database of online marketing statistics in the world.

Media Contact:
Samson Adepoju
Public Relations Specialist, eMarketer
Tel. 212-763-6044


May 20, 2009 2:17 PM PDT

by Josh Lowensohn

Google is giving brands and content publishers another way to track YouTube viewership metrics by letting them view it inside of Google Analytics.

Brands can now keep an eye on information that had not previously been available through YouTube’s built-in Insight analytics system, including bounce rates, page views, stay time, and whether certain users are coming back for more.

It also takes the same geographic information that’s been available in Insight, and lets you fine-tune it within the Google Analytics maps overlay, which includes additional filtering tools that can narrow down results by segment. Brand owners are also able to compare these numbers to existing goals from benchmarks or advertising campaigns.

Google is pitching this as an easy way for companies to use the popular video service as a big focus group, which is a fair statement. Commercials or other promotional content can be watched repeatedly and at any hour of the day. Users are also able to rate the video and leave feedback, either in the comments or by private message.

Compared to having advertising on a Web site, or more traditional media like TV and radio, this gives the ad more of a “long tail.” More importantly, by giving these brands a way to access more of the information than they could on YouTube alone, it’s a very casual approach to getting them to start using its analytics service; something that can be a gateway toward using Google’s AdWords program.

Josh Lowensohn is an associate editor for Webware.com, CNET’s blog about cool and otherwise useful Web applications and services. If you’ve found a site you’d like profiled, shoot him an e-mail. E-mail Josh.
May 20, 2009

IN another sign of how hard television executives are working to attract advertising in tough times, two cable channels plan to significantly expand an initiative that pairs commercials with relevant scenes in the shows they interrupt.

At a presentation on Wednesday, Turner Entertainment Networks — part of the Turner Broadcasting System unit of Time Warner — intends to announce the expansion of the initiative, called TV in Context. It is to be available in 100 movies and scripted series during the 2009-10 season on TBS and TNT; it has been available in 50 movies on those channels during 2008-9.

The wooing of advertisers by the Turner channels will begin on Day 3 of what is known as upfront week, so called because TV executives are trying to sell commercial time before the start of the coming season. TBS and TNT are among several cable channels making presentations during a week that has traditionally been the province of the broadcast networks.

The broadcasters, eager not to be usurped, are busy with their own efforts to entice marketers that include new schedules for CBS and ABC, as well as an innovative deal between NBC and a big advertiser, the Subway chain of sandwich shops, to renew the series “Chuck” for 2009-10.

TV in Context seeks to offer advertisers something like the contextual targeting they can achieve online by serving ads to computer users whose behavior is tracked from Web site to Web site.

For instance, when the OnStar service sold by General Motors bought a commercial on TNT during a break in the film “The Bourne Supremacy,” the spot was tied to the content of the preceding scene. After viewers watched Jason Bourne in a crash-filled car chase, the OnStar spot asked, “Are you counting on your cellphone to be your lifeline in a crash?”

Turner executives “know how challenged advertisers’ budgets are,” said Linda Yaccarino, executive vice president and chief operating officer for entertainment sales, marketing and acquisitions at Turner Entertainment Networks. “We want to challenge all the traditions of how we format our networks.”

Research showed improved scores among viewers for brands that used TV in Context this season, Ms. Yaccarino said, on attributes like engagement, recall and purchase intent. Advertisers in addition to G.M. that made TV in Context deals during 2008-9 included Applebee’s, Best Buy, Chili’s, DirecTV, Hallmark and Kellogg.

“One thing we’re always looking for is how can we partner with networks to do something innovative to get people to stay tuned to commercials,” said Steve Sternberg, executive vice president for audience analysis at Magna in New York, which helped bring together Turner and advertisers like Chili’s and DirecTV.

TV in Context “seems like such a simple idea,” he added, but “the initial results were very compelling.” Magna is part of the Mediabrands unit of the Interpublic Group of Companies.

The scripted series in which Turner plans to offer TV in Context are reruns of “My Name Is Earl” on TBS and the original series “Leverage” on TNT.

The renewal of “Chuck” for a third season by NBC, part of the NBC Universal division of General Electric, offers another example of how marketers and networks are collaborating in nontraditional fashion.

The special sponsorship with Subway is enabling NBC to bring back the series, executives said, in a deal they described as made possible by a decision to go to advertisers earlier than usual in what NBC called the “infront,” to ask for ideas about interweaving brands into shows.

The partnership was suggested to Ben Silverman, co-chairman of NBC Entertainment, by Subway executives, who were enthused about the special marketing opportunities the series afforded the chain. Subway sandwiches played a role in an episode of “Chuck” last month, with the “$5 foot-long” Subway slogan as part of the dialogue.

“Chuck” appealed to Subway for reasons that included its audience, which is mostly the type of younger consumer that buys a lot of subs at malls. The show takes place in a mall, and Chuck’s girlfriend, Sarah, is a C.I.A. agent who works under cover at various stands in the food court.

It is no great leap to believe she could be selling Subway sandwiches next season. An NBC executive said discussions have been under way about the specifics of the tie-in. “Chuck” will return at 8 p.m. Mondays, after the network finishes covering the Winter Olympics.

With the fate of “Chuck” in the balance, the show’s fans had waged an aggressive campaign online and through Twitter to save it. Many suggested buying foot-long Subway sandwiches to signal their ardor for the series.

Turning to ABC, part of the Walt Disney Company, the network is hoping to take advantage of the decision by NBC to schedule a comedy talk show with Jay Leno at 10 p.m. Mondays through Fridays, said Stephen McPherson, president of the ABC Entertainment Group.

ABC is adding two dramas at 10 p.m. “The Forgotten,” on Tuesday, is a crime series from the prolific and successful executive producer Jerry Bruckheimer. “Eastwick,” on Wednesday, is based on the John Updike novel “The Witches of Eastwick,” as well as the movie by that name.

“Eastwick” is one of five new series that will compose an all-new Wednesday for ABC. The other four newcomers are star-filled sitcoms: “Hank,” with Kelsey Grammer; “The Middle,” with Patricia Heaton; “Modern Family,” with Ed O’Neill; and “Cougar Town,” with Courteney Cox Arquette.

The other dramas for ABC at 10 p.m. are returnees: “Castle,” on Monday, and “Private Practice,” on Thursday. The news magazine “20/20” comes back at 10 p.m. Friday.

ABC is unsure where “Lost” will be on the schedule, Mr. McPherson said, when it returns in January for its final season. The series has occupied various time slots in its five-year run.

CBS, part of the CBS Corporation, is to discuss its schedule on Wednesday. Three dramatic series were not renewed for 2009-10, according to an executive who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to discuss the network’s plans. They are “Eleventh Hour,” “The Unit” and “Without a Trace.”

Five series on the proverbial bubble for renewal are getting picked up, the executive said. Two, “Cold Case” and “Numb3rs,” are dramas. The rest, “Gary Unmarried,” “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and “Rules of Engagement,” are sitcoms.

CBS is likely to add a drama, “Medium,” to the schedule after its cancellation by NBC. “Medium” is produced by the CBS Television Studios unit of CBS.

Bill Carter and Edward Wyatt contributed to this article.

Sec Powell was the GOP’s “Obama moment” in 1996 and 2000. A chance to have a media friendly, GOP base expanding personality of reputation and credibility. The GOP squandered it and now is sniping with Sec Powell?? That does no good. If Jack Kemp could be a “conservative’s conservative” but be equally as compelling as a base expanding figure of the party, then the GOP needs more Powells AND Kemps. Otherwise, we’re a super-regional party at best. What say you?!

May 25, 2009

WASHINGTON — Colin L. Powell challenged Dick Cheney on the legacy of the Bush administration and the future of the Republican Party on Sunday, declaring that Republicans should not bow to “diktats that come from the right wing.”

The remarks by Mr. Powell, a former secretary of state, amounted to a public rebuttal of Mr. Cheney, the former vice president, and Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio commentator, who have questioned Mr. Powell’s Republican credentials and suggested that he should leave the party.

“Rush will not get his wish,” Mr. Powell said Sunday on “Face the Nation” on CBS. “And Mr. Cheney was misinformed. I am still a Republican.”

Mr. Powell’s appearance underlined an extraordinary public struggle among Republicans over the future of the party and the legacy of the Bush administration, particularly on national security. Mr. Powell broke with Mr. Cheney on the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, saying that he agreed with President Obama that it should be closed and that Mr. Cheney disagreed as much with his former boss as with Mr. Obama.

“Mr. Cheney is not only disagreeing with President Obama’s policy,” Mr. Powell said. “He’s disagreeing with President Bush’s policy. President Bush stated repeatedly to international audiences and to the country that he wanted to close Guantánamo. The problem he had was he couldn’t get all the pieces together.”

Mr. Powell said Guantánamo prisoners could be safely housed in United States prisons, undercutting the main theme Congressional Republicans have been wielding against the president.

Still, Mr. Powell faulted Mr. Obama for failing to produce a detailed plan to close the prison and for giving his opponents time to mobilize on the issue.

In another indication of Republican discord, Tom Ridge, who was a secretary of homeland security for Mr. Bush, said on CNN that he disagreed with Mr. Cheney that the nation was less safe because of Mr. Obama’s national security policies. He, too, supports the closing of Guantánamo. The comments from Mr. Powell and Mr. Ridge come as Republican Congressional leaders are pushing to capitalize on concerns about national security and housing terrorism detainees from Guantánamo in local prisons.

But Karl Rove, who was Mr. Bush’s senior political adviser, saluted Mr. Cheney for leading the fight in challenging Mr. Obama, saying he was doing what other Republicans were not. “The vice president feels very strongly that the administration has mischaracterized and distorted the Bush administration’s record,” he said in an interview.

“I applaud Cheney,” he said. “No one else was stepping forward.”

Liz Cheney, a Republican strategist and Mr. Cheney’s daughter, said, “This isn’t complicated.”

“Conservatism is conservatism,” Ms. Cheney said. “Republicans have led the nation to greatness when they’ve been true to fundamental principles, such as a strong national defense, limited government and low taxes. None of those are things President Obama believes in.”

Mr. Powell infuriated many in his party last fall when he endorsed Mr. Obama for president. His appearance on “Face the Nation” comes two weeks after Mr. Cheney, appearing on the same program, said he believed that Mr. Powell “had already left the party. I didn’t know he was still a Republican.”

On Sunday, Mr. Powell called for an “after-action review” by Republicans of why the party had fared so poorly in the November elections, and what the party needed to do going forward. “After a battle or after a training exercise, you bring all of the leaders in,” he said. “And you say, ‘What’s going right? What’s going wrong? What did we do right or wrong? And how do we move forward?’ ”

He made clear that he thought a major threat to the party were suggestions by Republicans like Mr. Cheney and Mr. Limbaugh that there was no room for Republicans like Mr. Powell. “What the concern about me is, ‘Well, is he too moderate?’ ” Mr. Powell said. “I have always felt that the Republican Party should be more inclusive than it generally has been over the years.”

The recent exchanges underscored the turmoil in the party as it tries to assess the losses last year and judge the extent to which it needs to disassociate itself with the policies of Mr. Bush. Mr. Powell’s call for expanding the party was embraced by Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker and a leading conservative in the party, who said Republicans would be doomed to minority status if they adopted a small-tent view.

“I don’t think anybody has the authority to read anybody out of a free party,” Mr. Gingrich said in an interview. “Having started my career in Georgia when there were no Republicans and we were eager to show up, and having been in the House for 15 years as a member of the minority, I’ll tell you if we didn’t have moderates, we would never have become a majority party. You can’t be a national party without internal tension.”

Still, other Republicans said that while they agreed with Mr. Powell’s argument that the road to success was not in pushing people out of the party, there were clear signs of animosity toward him.

“There are a lot of Republicans and conservatives who are frustrated with Colin Powell because of his endorsement of President Obama,” said Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Republican of Minnesota.

Mr. Pawlenty said he agreed with Mr. Powell that the Republican Party could become a majority party only if it was open to people who disagreed on some issues. “If your indictment of the Republican Party is that it’s not mainstream enough,” he said, “and then the party puts forth somebody who is clearly a mainstream Republican — John McCain for president — and then you leap-frog over him to endorse Barack Obama, that seems to be about more than being frustrated with the Republican Party not being mainstream enough.”

And Mr. Rove said that while he thought Mr. Powell’s views were welcome in the party — “If you want to describe a vision for the Republican Party, you are welcome to do that” — he suggested that Mr. Powell, a former Army general who served as secretary of state under Mr. Bush from 2001 to 2005 and who was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under the first President Bush, had not gone the next step in finding candidates and helping to put the party back into power.

“With that vision, you’ve got to go out and work for it,” Mr. Rove said. “It’s not enough to opine from the side of the field.”

Peter Suciu | May 25th, 2009

As summer inches closer, Madden NFL Football from Electronic Arts is arriving in video game stores almost like clockwork. Lots of rivals have failed to tackle Madden, which has become a multi-billion-dollar franchise. But Jeff Anderson’s Quick Hit (previously named Play Hard Sports) has a decent chance of winning some fans, not with a long bomb but with a game for those with short attention spans. Anderson’s venture-funded team has designed Madden and other football video games before. Anderson, who also spent time in the EA ranks and was CEO of online game maker Turbine, discusses why he thinks this game could become a quick hit just because of its approach of targeting a more casual, less rabid audience.

VentureBeat: There has been a lot of competition on the virtual gridiron over the years, but every time Madden manages to be the one who gets the championship ring. So do you think Quick Hit Football will give the old guy a run for his money?

Jeff Anderson: Unlike other companies, we aren’t trying to recreate Madden. We’re making something very different. We’re building a truly unique gaming experience that combines authentic football with player advancement in a robust social community. Even more importantly, Quick Hit Football is free-to-play, giving everyone a chance to manage their own football team. That’s not Madden or EA –- especially since they just canceled Head Coach 10. So, for people who don’t want to pay $50 for a console game, Quick Hit is the perfect football game.

VB: Obviously you have an advantage over the other football games too, in that Madden — and practically most of the other game series — have moved on from the PC. Does this make a Flash-based game all the more desirable?

JA: Absolutely. The PC (and specifically Flash) is a tremendous social gaming platform that has the ability to connect players from all around the globe.  Players can chat, socialize, and compete all in one place.  Essentially, Quick Hit Football is a persistent community that’s there whenever you are. Secondly, many consumers are concerned about prices in today’s poor economy. High-quality PC games are a terrific value -– especially when they’re free! People are looking for more low-cost alternatives for entertainment, and games that require a $300 console are missing the mark.

VB: And given that it is Flash-based, is your thinking that this is something you can play at lunch, or during a break? After all most offices probably don’t have a PS3 or Xbox 360 — at least those outside the video game world — so does doing a game like Quick Hit Football open the door for more quick play “break” type games?

JA: I couldn’t have said it better.  We developed Quick Hit Football to be something people can play in 20-25 minutes from start to finish, for exactly that reason.  Most console games require you to be sitting down in front of the screen, usually with your competitor sitting beside you and can take up to an hour to play –- not something you are going to do during lunch.  If you find yourself with 20 minutes of free time -– before work, during lunch, before bed, you can get in and play a full game of Quick Hit Football.

VB: Is this a game you think can appeal to a wider audience than Madden — or any of the other football simulations out there? And is this a game that might appeal to the non-gaming football fan?

JA: Most certainly.  As I mentioned before, there is a massive audience of football fans who would love a game that doesn’t require “super-thumbs” (like Madden) or a PhD in statistics.   Quick Hit Football takes a player’s football knowledge and turns it into winning strategies.  It’s not about how fast you can juke your RB left or scramble your QB out of the pocket.  It’s about taking what you know and love about football and using that knowledge to coach and manage your team.  We have spent a lot of time ensuring the game has the authenticity and depth that more hard core fans will want, but an ease-of-use component that allows anyone to get in and start playing with no barriers. At the end of the day, we want the game to be fun, authentic and accessible and I think we’ve accomplished all those things.

VB: One thing about the consoles is that it is truly a level playing field. While one player might have better surround sound and a bigger screen than the next, the fact is that an Xbox 360 always runs like an Xbox 360. But PC games have to deal with “specs” and compatibility, so how does making a Flash-based game come into the mix?

JA: An Xbox might always run like an Xbox, but a Flash based game like ours presents a very low barrier to entry for the consumer and very few compatibility issues. Flash is installed most of the machines that are online and runs smoothly on machines that are several years old and running a variety of browsers and operating systems. In a way, Adobe has absorbed the cost of compatibility for us and allows the game to run easily on low-end PCs. Similarly, football is a “turn-based” (not twitch) game with relatively light bandwidth needs. Quick Hit Football doesn’t have nearly the lag or latency sensitivity issues as a high-end massively multiplayer role-playing game (MMORPG).

VB: To many players a game is typically better as the graphics improve, so going with Flash is likely going to mean a step back. Do you think the fact that this won’t have the latest and greatest graphics is going to be something you’ll have to overcome?

JA: It depends on your starting point. For most Internet gamers, our console-quality graphics are one of our biggest assets –- bringing compelling visuals to a Flash game.  We know when people hear “Flash” they typically assume the graphics are low quality, but we have used Flash, in conjunction with our back-end technologies, to create very sophisticated graphics that players will find hard to believe they can get in a ‘free” game. Obviously, we’re not going to be Madden, but Quick Hit Football looks pretty amazing for a free-to-play, online game.

VB: How big do you see the online community getting for this type of game? Is this the step that Flash needs to become a truly robust gaming platform?

JA: There is an enormous opportunity with more than 20 million fantasy football players and about 8 million Madden players in North America. Of course, no one knows the exact market size, but we believe that Quick Hit Football is exactly the kind of game to capture the hearts and minds of these football fans. As for Flash, it already has established itself as a a great web platform for many different types of applications; and we feel that it’s utility as a gaming platform will continue to grow.

VB: Finally, having a team that comes from different directions in the world of video game football, do you think that Quick Hit has just the right mix to truly be something that has just the right blend of everything?

JA: I believe our team is one of the most unique in the industry.  It brings together the best talent from sports gaming, MMORPGs and fantasy sports – the ultimate trifecta.  We have designers and developers that have worked on Madden, NFL 2K, ESPN Football, All Pro Football, NCAA and more.  Marry those guys with the team that worked on major MMO hits like The Lord of the Rings Online and Ultima Online and you have something very distinct in Quick Hit Football.  I think we’ve taken the most excellent elements from MMORPGs, casual games, console games and fantasy sports and combined them into what we hope will be a football game for the masses.

Posted by: Patrick | May 28, 2009

AdWeek: Getting In the Game

Marketers can reach a wide range of key demos with early forays into casual gaming

May 25, 2009

-By Josh Lovison

Gaming has exploded in the past three years, largely due to the influx of a new audience: adult women. And in general, gaming has become a majority activity-according to a recent Pew Internet survey, more than 51 percent of U.S. adults play games.

Time spent per visit on casual gaming sites exceeds all other categories, including social networks and online video sites. By all counts, this trend looks to be a permanent shift in attention online. Keeping this in mind, how can marketers adapt to the changing landscape?

First of all, the term “casual” is a misnomer. Casual gamers spend nearly as much time playing games as traditional “core” gamers, averaging around nine hours per week. Casual games are easy to pick up and play regardless of prior experience, with gradual learning curves. This is a major contrast to traditional games that can require weeks of play for a new gamer to become proficient.

But aren’t these games for kids? The 12-17 age range is the most saturated for gaming, with some studies indicating more than 90 percent play games. But the activity remains strong for all ages. And as the median age of players increases, the role of gaming in the mix of online activities will grow as well. In a Deloitte study, 51 percent of Boomers (43-61) play online games weekly, more than any other tracked activity, including social networking and online video. For Matures (62-75), 48 percent played games. The only activity with a greater share of activity for that group was research into financial and investment information.

Marketers can get involved in the casual game space through four formats:

• Advergames are generally a bad idea, unless there is significant attention paid to quality and a clear syndication strategy. Just building a cheap game and putting it on the brand Web site will likely result in wasted time and money.

• Interstitial ads are similar to Web video placements where 15 seconds of video loads in a pre-roll, mid-roll or post-roll spot. These units are common in ad-supported downloaded games, usually with mid-roll spots during level loads.

• Display ads surrounding gameplay on browser-based games are fairly straightforward, though sometimes advertisers overlook the potential of keeping the messaging contextually relevant- there are many themed games, and puzzles are extremely popular. Customizing display ad messaging based on various game contexts can be a worthwhile investment.

• Dynamic in-game advertising in casual games offers various solutions; even Google has one. The space is not as mature as the in-game advertising within traditional games. Dynamic in-game ads need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, as some executions will look bungled, and others will work brilliantly. When done right, dynamic in-game advertising is the most accountable method of placement possible.

The casual game space is in a process of maturation. While traditional gaming and marketing within games is institutionalized, casual is still working out the kinks. The category’s landscape is also fragmented, which presents a problem to marketers for everything from reach to reliable analytics. However, because of how quickly it has grown and the current economic climate, casual gaming is a bubble waiting to pop. Many companies will go out of business, and only the best in breed will survive.

It would therefore be prudent for marketers to start running smaller scale ad campaigns in the space to create learnings and establish relationships. Once the market consolidates, there will be a few key companies providing turn-key solutions. Initial forays into the space today will pay off in spades when that happens.

Casual gaming is a cutting-edge development, but one that has resonated with demographics not typically seen as early tech adopters, namely women over 40. Casual gamers spend a considerable amount of time every week playing, and marketers need to keep up with this shift in marketplace mind share and attention.

While the space is fragmented, it’s a great time for marketers to get their feet wet. Out of the many ad formats, working with interstitials and in-game solutions will provide the most productive learnings.

Now it’s just up to marketers to start playing.

Josh Lovison is the game practice lead for IPG Emerging Media Lab. He is based in Los Angeles.

Posted by: Patrick | May 28, 2009

WSJ: More Households Cut the Cord on Cable

Need a Real Sponsor here

TECHNOLOGY
MAY 28, 2009

By CHRISTOPHER LAWTON

Amid tighter budgets, more people are trying to save money by cutting their cable cords. In response, cable companies are beginning to experiment with new Internet services.

In what’s shaping up as the home-entertainment equivalent of severing a landline phone service, more people are joining the ranks of “cord cutters” by forgoing cable subscriptions that can run $60 or more a month.

Instead, they’re turning to free over-the-air high-definition television channels and video-game consoles, such as Playstation 3 and XBox 360. They’re also watching Internet-connected TV sets, paying a basic high-speed Internet fee of about $45, as well as set-top boxes from companies like Netflix Inc. Some are also using media browsers that they can download free and run on PCs, providing access to TV shows, movies and other content directly from the Web.

The number of cable cutters remains too small to threaten the pay-television industry. Still, large cable companies such as Comcast Corp. and Time Warner Cable Inc. are noticing that people are spending more time online.

“The reality is, we’re starting to see the beginnings of cord cutting where people, particularly young people, are saying all I need is broadband,” said Glenn Brit, president and chief executive of Time Warner Cable, during a company earnings call in February.

Earlier this year, Comcast began working on Web services that would stream cable-TV shows, often not available online. Last year, Time Warner Cable began an experiment in Milwaukee, Wis., where subscribers to its cable and Internet services and HBO could go to an HBO Web site and download content. These services would be available only to cable subscribers.

Comcast is also beefing up its Fancast Web site, which streams TV shows from the broadcast networks and is available free to anyone on the Internet.

“From a Comcast perspective, it’s an acknowledgment that consumers are spending more and more time watching video on their PC,” says Sam Schwartz, executive vice president for Comcast Interactive Media.

The cable-cutting trend isn’t just being driven by pinched personal budgets. It also comes as younger consumers gravitate to popular and free online video sites such as Google Inc.’s YouTube and Hulu.com, a joint venture between News Corp. and NBC Universal, which is owned by General Electric Co. and Vivendi. More content producers are also offering their TV shows and movies online through services such as Apple Inc.’s iTunes and Netflix.

Some 900,000 U.S. homes didn’t pay for TV and relied solely on Web TV last year, according to estimates from consulting firm Parks Associates, which projects that the number will grow this year. And 8% of adults now view television shows online at least once a week, up from 6% who did so in 2008, according to a survey by the Leichtman Research Group. The same survey found that 8% of adults who watch video online now watch TV less often.

Overall, while the number of households paying for cable rose 2% last year, pay-TV growth has slowed considerably. In the last three months of 2008, pay-TV penetration grew by only 0.7%, or 220,000 homes, its lowest rate on record, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Daniel Bendett is one of those who became a cable cutter this year. Mr. Bendett, a San Francisco financial adviser, downloaded free of charge a media browser called Boxee on his Macintosh computer connected to his television a few months ago. The Boxee software creates widget-like buttons on a TV screen for easy access to personal digital content such as photos, music and movies and video sites, all with a remote control.

Now the 25-year-old says he and his roommates have decided not to pay for cable in their apartment. “Everything I need, I get from the Internet,” Mr. Bendett says.

Those who end up cutting the cord do pay a price in entertainment. Pay-TV services, like cable and satellite, still carry more live events, TV shows, movies and other content for viewers to watch than what’s available online. Web TV also doesn’t offer as much high-definition content as pay TV.

In many situations, consumers also have to watch the content on their computers, which can be less comfortable than watching TV on the living-room couch. And while they can connect their PCs to digital TVs and watch online programming with a remote control, that setup is still too techie for many consumers.

Some would-be cable cutters have pulled back at the last minute, in part because live events like sports are hard to find online. Rodrigo Gonzalez, 31, a stay-at-home dad in Los Angeles, connected a computer to his living room television and downloaded Zinc, a media browser from ZeeVee Inc., three months ago because he wanted to access Netflix’s video streaming site on his big TV. Through Zinc, he also accessed the Web sites for Hulu, Walt Disney Co..’s ABC and Time Warner’s Cartoon Network.

“If I wasn’t into sports, I would definitely just use [Zinc] instead,” Mr. Gonzalez says.

Others are still planning to escape the cable cord. Patrick Roanhouse, a 25-year-old information-technology consultant in Baltimore, Md., downloaded Boxee to his laptop last year and began using it to watch Web TV. Now he mainly watches TV from his bedroom by connecting his laptop to a 24-inch monitor, even though he still splits a $120 Comcast cable, Internet and phone bill with his roommate.

When Mr. Roanhouse moves into his own apartment in August, he says, he plans to drop cable service entirely. “The old cliché that we have 500 channels and nothing to watch is pretty much still true,” he says.

Write to Christopher Lawton at christopher.lawton@wsj.co

Posted by: Patrick | May 28, 2009

BusinessWeek: How Facebook Will Upend Advertising

With social networks like Facebook transforming the way companies communicate with consumers, it’s time for the ad industry to get its head out of the sand

By Jonathan L. Yarmis

The guessing games over Facebook’s worth are back on again. They were reignited by the news on May 26 that Facebook has accepted a $200 million investment that values the company at $10 billion.

Much of the discussion centers on the ability, or lack thereof, of Facebook and other social networks to sell advertising and deliver advertising results. People get on Facebook to socialize, not hunt for products—or so the argument runs.

But that argument misses the point. The question isn’t how advertising will work on Facebook but rather how Facebook and social networks like News Corp.’s (NWS) MySpace are changing advertising. I’m loath to affix the 2.0 moniker to yet another phrase, but if ever an industry needed to be 2.0-ized, it’s advertising.

Almost a century ago, retailer John Wannamaker is reported to have said: “Half of all advertising works, I just don’t know which half.” Today the percentage may be far lower. On the Internet, click-through rates have fallen precipitously as clutter has replaced clarity. These days an ad has performed exceptionally well if at least 1 in 10 people who see it click on it. Much of the time click-through rates that once approached 3% are more like 0.3%.

The Holy Grail of ads: word of mouth

The good news is that we’re on the verge of a major rethinking of advertising’s fundamental premises. One of the biggest challenges facing advertisers is ad credibility. Consumers typically rate advertising as their least credible information channel. However, businesses have continued to invest in advertising because they could compensate for the lack of credibility through broad distribution and high-impact messaging.

Today that trade-off is being turned on its head. Word of mouth—peer opinion—has consistently been rated the most credible source of information. But traditionally there’s been a limit as to how widely you could distribute a friend’s point of view. Readers of a certain age will remember the Fabergé Organics commercial from the 1970s depicting a shampoo user who “told two friends,” who in turn “told two friends, and so on, and so on.” Three decades ago, telling a lot of friends wasn’t nearly as easy as it is now.

Credibility now has a channel for mass distribution. It’s called the Web and it particularly thrives in social networks. Such distribution will have profound implications for how we “advertise.”

Obviously, we can use social networks to reach friends. But social tools woven into various sites can deliver the opinions and reviews of a group—”people like me”—whose views may be just as credible as those of my friends.

Say I’m a chief information officer. I may find the opinions of fellow CIOs I’ve never met every bit as credible as the ones I know—perhaps even more so, in that I’m less willing to denigrate the opinions of people I don’t know. After all, I know the biases and shortcomings of the people in my friendship circle.

deploying social maps

These tools are showing up in a variety of online destinations. Facebook’s Connect and other similar technologies let people bring their social map with them as they traverse the Internet. Businesses have to be thinking about how they might incorporate the social map into the way they deal with customers and prospects. This is going to be huge—and the opportunities are immediate.

I’m a big fan of Loomia‘s SeenThis application. While it was designed for Facebook, I actually “use” it elsewhere. You’re probably familiar with the boxes on such newspapers sites as The Wall Street Journal that show what stories other readers have read. This “most read” designation rarely interests me. However, the Loomia tool gives me an additional box that shows me what stories my Facebook friends and groups have read. Generally I end up clicking through on most or all of those articles. The “recommendation” from my peer group is much more interesting and relevant to me than those of the general WSJ readership or editorial board.

In sum, social networks and related tools are transforming the way companies communicate with consumers and potential consumers in profoundly interesting ways. In this light, questions of Facebook’s valuation are at best mildly amusing to me. If, as I suspect, Facebook is at the vanguard of transforming how companies reach consumers, $10 billion will some day seem laughably small.

Now it’s up to the advertising industry to get its collective head out of the sand and exploit this transformation to its advantage.

Jonathan Yarmis is founder and principal analyst with the Yarmis Group, an independent analyst group.

The qualifying question here is “Which social media platform is more important to brands?” In that case the real battle should be between consumer oriented platforms like Facebook and Twitter, not a business platform liked LinkedIn.
A month-long poll conducted on business social network LinkedIn has uncovered some fascinating numbers concerning social media platforms and brand presence. The biggest surprise was that Twitter was deemed more important to brands than LinkedIn, and the poll was performed on LinkedIn. With more than 3,600 respondents so far, each well understood in terms of job titles, company size, age and gender – this is a high-quality data set worth paying attention to. The question asked was simply: “What is the most important new platform for brands to master?” Options were Twitter, Facebook, the iPhone, Digg and LinkedIn.

Some of the conclusions were a real surprise. Others confirmed our suspicions. Read on for charts, bullet points and a few thoughts.

Poll: Business People Say Twitter More Important Than LinkedIn

Posted using ShareThis

Posted by: Patrick | June 2, 2009

SF Chronicle: Computer gamemakers eye social networks

Carrie Kirby, Special to The Chronicle

Monday, June 1, 2009

A screenshot from a Facebook mini game Electronic Arts pu...

(05-31) 16:25 PDT — When the best-selling game The Sims debuts with its third version tomorrow, it will include a Web site where players can share videos and snippets of information about their game experience.

“Their friends will be able to see those pages. They’ll be able to share those (things) and interact around the world,” said John Buchanan, senior director of marketing at Electronic Arts, the publisher of the life-simulation video game.

Sound familiar?

Buchanan acknowledges that the player profiles on thesims3.com will be like a version of the social networking site Facebook. But instead of sharing pictures of their kids or events in their own lives, players will report the milestones of their Sims, the imaginary people who populate the game.

Although EA is only dabbling in social networking for the moment, moves by the Redwood Shores company signal a growing convergence between the established video game industry and the evolving social networks like Facebook and MySpace.

The growth of social networks, where a widening swath of the population spends an increasing amount of time, provides gamemakers another avenue to grow their audience. A number of games designed specifically for social networks, such as Zygna’s popular Mafia Wars, have attracted big followings.

Besides launching its own social network for Sims players, EA will have a new tool that makes it easy for Sims 3 players to upload videos from their games onto their Facebook profiles.

EA also created a mini-game to promote The Sims 3 on Facebook. Previously, it launched an officially sanctioned version of Scrabble for Facebook (filling a void after a similar game called Scrabulous was shut down). EA has more games for social networks in the works.

It’s no mystery why video game sellers would want to connect their products with the social network phenomenon. In just five years, Facebook has accumulated 200 million regular users, two-thirds of them outside of Facebook’s original college student demographic.

Expanding its reach

That broad appeal is tantalizing to the game industry, which has tried for years to expand its own customer profile beyond young men. There have been successes – short online games known as casual games and, notably, the Nintendo Wii have brought in some older players and some women.

But proponents say that social games – which are usually played among friends and relatives who are connected on the social networks – stand to blow down the walls separating the world’s gamers and non-gamers.

Besides being played among real-life friends, social games are distinguished from other video games by including some kind of cooperation or incorporating social interaction in the game play.

For instance, Mafia Wars players are part of a gang, and recruiting more members is one of the ways that the gangs gain power. It also happens to make the game incredibly viral.

The convergence of games and social networks is already growing the audience for both businesses, said analyst Atul Bagga, an analyst with ThinkEquity.

“I have a son and he’s 11 years old. He did not have a Facebook account and he would always hook up to his mom’s account just to play (social game) Geo Challenge,” said Bagga. At the same time, his 35-year-old sister, who had never played video games, now plays Sudoku on Facebook to connect with family members who live far away.

Games popular

Facebook says that games are the most popular applications on the network, with 2 million active users playing the 10 most popular games.

Bagga sees social games growing into a $1 billion market within three years. Aiding that growth will be the popularity of the iPhone, which allows people to fit in a little game play anywhere, whenever they have time.

EA’s Facebook gambits represent “the beginning of a trend,” said Gareth Davis, who leads gaming efforts on Facebook. “We talk frequently with the major developers and publishers and they’re all interested in figuring out how to combine Facebook with their games.”

That doesn’t mean the big game companies are jumping feet first into social games, though. The market is still small, and so far, the main forces behind the new niche are startups. The creator of three of the top five games on Facebook is Zynga, a San Francisco company that has ballooned to more than 250 employees from 45 one year ago.

Ad revenue

Zynga was co-founded by Mark Pincus, a 43-year-old serial entrepreneur who also started Tribe.net, one of the first social network sites, in 2003. Its most popular games are Texas Hold ‘Em and Mafia Wars.

Zynga, which Pincus likes to call a “ghetto Google,” recalls colorful dot-com startups of yore in more than just its quick-growing payroll; it’s housed in an old potato chip factory and employs nine chefs to serve up organic meals.

Like other Facebook applications, Zynga’s games are free to play. The company brings in revenue through advertising, selling virtual items that enhance game play, and generating leads for outside marketers. For instance, Mafia Wars players can earn points if they sign up for a trial of Blockbuster’s monthly video rental plan.

Different revenue streams

The revenue streams in social games are fundamentally different from the established video game business, which is still selling game DVDs for $50 or so or charging a monthly fee for online games. That’s one reason why analyst Bagga expects the big game companies to let Zynga and other startups flesh out the business model.

“As the market starts to grow bigger, the easier thing for Activision or EA would be to buy one of these companies,” Bagga said.

Send comments to business@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/01/BUDU17RB6B.DTL

This article appeared on page C – 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Have you ever wondered how your elected official has voted on certain issues and could not have found it? Two tech enthusiasts have created an application called Visible Vote helping iPhone, Blackberry and Facebook users to easily see how their congressmen and senators vote on issues.

According to NBC’s WIS10 Paul Everton and Stephen Trac created the “Visible Vote” application shortly after Congress passed the $750 billion bank bailout. This new application allows you to select your U.S. House Representative and Senator. It then keeps a tally of his or her voting record.

In fact Visible Vote allows you to send feedback and your opinion to your representative in case you agree or may disagree with the way he or she voted on a particular issue. You can also write the Congress personal notes and and letters right from your mobile device such as iPhone, Blackberry and also Facebook by using Visible Vote.

The website is visiblevote.us, but it’s still under construction or Beta version. However, you can visit the Visible Vote on Facebook. That’s the message on the site.

Visible Vote “is dedicated to making government transparent and accountable. Visible Vote allows you to vote on the same issues your legislators are voting on. It then cross compares your votes to your legislators over time. Visible Vote even updates your legislators with your votes for you via FAX. You can also FAX a personal letter to your representatives,” reads the message on the site.

Visible Vote instructions for Blackberry Users

For the Blackberry Storm, Blackberry Bold and 8900 Curve please do the following:

1) Point your Blackberry Browser to: http://visiblevote.us/bb/new/visiblevote.jad

2) Download and install the application

3) Run the program and create a password and put in your zip code. Then you should be complete!

4) If you have a facebook account visit us on Facebook and go to the Settings on Visible Vote. Then synchronize your blackberry to it.

Visible Vote iPhone instructions and screenshots are available here.

What you can do with Visible Vote:

1) Send a letter to your Legislators through your iPhone.
2) Track how your legislators are voting on issues you care about.
3) Vote on the same Bills as your legislators.
4) Look at each issue your legislator agrees or disagrees with you on.

Based on materials gathered from www.Visiblevote.us and other media reports.

Ad Overkill May Not Be a Bad Thing During Tough Times

JUNE 4, 2009

Projecting strength.

Banks and retailers should be careful when cutting back on ad spending during the recession.

It might make their customers think less of them.

Data from Ad-ology Research shows that one way consumers gauge a company’s health is by how often the company advertises.

Nearly one-half of the Internet users surveyed said that if they noticed a drop-off in ads from a bank, they believed it was struggling, and 12% believed the financial institution might not be in business much longer.

Conversely, when banks advertised frequently, consumers saw them as committed to business, being competitive or doing well.

The response to retail stores that advertised less was more extreme.

Fifty-six percent of Internet users who noticed a decline in ads from a retailer saw it as a sign that the store was struggling—15% thought the store would go bust, and soon.

On the other hand, frequent retail ads led respondents to feel the stores were committed to doing business, being competitive and—in some cases—healthy.

Retail stores and financial institutions are struggling in the wake of the economic downturn and looking for opportunities to save, but cutting marketing budgets may hurt them in the long run—and the same may be true in other business categories.

Never miss a trend. Learn more about an eMarketer Total Access subscription, today.


©2009 eMarketer Inc. All rights reserved. www.emarketer.com
Posted by: Patrick | June 4, 2009

AdAge: Twitter Snobbery??

Are We a Bunch of Twitter Snobs?

Or Are You a Big Crybaby?

By Nat Ives

Published: June 02, 2009

At least a couple of commenters on our recent post “25 Media People You Should Follow on Twitter” called us “Twitter snobs only following a few people.”

“Do they not get what Twitter really is?” one asked.

“It’s good Twitter etiquette to follow your followers,” another agreed.

If that’s true, we are varying degrees of rude. Right now Assistant Managing Editor Ken Wheaton* has 1.2 followers for every person he’s following, a relatively even ratio. Digital Editor Abbey Klaassen has 5.4 followers for every one she’s tracking. And our media reporter, me, has 14.3.

Ashton Kutcher, for an extreme comparison, has more than 12,000 followers for every person he follows.

What’s your ratio? And are you a good person or bad? What about us?

Before you answer, consider some potentially mitigating — or aggravating — dynamics.

  • Men have 15% more followers than women, according to new research by a Harvard MBA student and an assistant professor at Harvard Business School.
  • “Men also have more reciprocated relationships, in which two users follow each other,” they wrote. “This ‘follower split’ suggests that women are driven less by followers than men, or have more stringent thresholds for reciprocating relationships.”
  • Some Twitterers, both men and women, have followed as many people as possible, knowing a fair share will follow them back and run up their follower count as a result. Some even then went back and stopped following a ton of them, making themselves look, they hoped, really popular.

Then again, there’s no way 2 million people are actually monitoring Ashton’s tweets. Many people who try Twitter don’t make it a habit, producing something like a 60% abandonment rate, according to a Nielsen Online estimate. So the counts include a lot of phantom followers on all sides.

Speaking of Ashton, the much-touted Lord o’ Twitter may not get what Twitter “really is.” He’s held up as some sort of genius of social media, when what he’s doing is actually broadcasting, not trying to nurture real interactions with his followers. Reporters frequently do something similar, although maybe we shouldn’t.

A lot of this has to do with how a person uses Twitter. When you check Twitter, are you sticking your hand in the river to see what you catch? Are you trying to stay on top of your group’s every update? Are you using a Twitter app like Tweetdeck, which helps when you’re following hundreds of people, or just Twitter.com? Are you maybe spamming people with unwanted direct messages and using auto-follows or other apps that allow you “cheat” at Twitter?

What are you doing there? What should we be doing?

*And now a note from Ken Wheaton: As the guy with one of the more even Twitter ratios, allow me to say this: Get over it already. I might not appear to be a Twitter snob, but I am a big enough jerk to tell you to suck it up! Ha! But seriously, quit crying. You know what seems like the central message of these complaints is? It’s the same thing with most Twitter-related complaints: “You don’t follow me and you don’t use Twitter the way I, Self-Appointed Social Media Guru, use Twitter.” Better to be seen as a snob than a self-absorbed whiner, I say. There’s no crying in Twitter.

Eric Eldon | May 29th, 2009

Third party applications on Facebook are beginning to test out the social network’s new, in-house payment system, presaging what has been described as a wide-ranging war among many companies to offer a single, universal virtual currency. There’s been no formal announcement of a launch yet, but an implementation is already live on an app called GroupCards, as spotted by TechCrunch earlier today.

It works along the lines of what we first heard earlier this month. When you’re trying to purchase a virtual good in an application, you now see an option to purchase using “credits” (the virtual currency system that Facebook already uses in its gifts store and in some other tests). In GroupCards, when you’re trying to purchase an e-card for a friend, you see a “Pay with Facebook” option. Click on it and you’ll see a window with information about buying credits — if you don’t have earned enough already through buying them in the Facebook gifts store. Then, you can choose how many credits to buy, and taken to a credit card payment page to finish the process.

This test also explains why Facebook updated its terms of service around payments on Wednesday. It clearly wants users to understand how credits work as they start getting exposed to them on applications.

This is a smart step, because Facebook can make a cut of every transaction that goes through its payment system. Third party app developers are already on track to make up to $500 million in total transactions this year, but so far only third-party providers have enabled payments.

The fact that Facebook is using its own brand in this payment system could make users more willing to put money in — and so make more for developers and for Facebook.

The bigger question is whether Facebook could scale this payment system out to the web, and let people use it for real-world transactions, especially as existing payment service providers from PayPal to Apple try to more or less do the same thing. For more on that, see the guest column we published earlier today, titled “The virtual currency wars are coming” by TwoFish president Lisa Rutherford.

Posted by: Patrick | June 10, 2009

AdAge: Tweeting Your Brand – Proceed With Caution

Advertising Age

// Viewpoint: Razorfish’s Steven CisowskiBy Steven Cisowski

Published: June 10, 2009

Steven Cisowski
Steven Cisowski

If you haven’t been living under a rock lately, you’ve probably heard a lot about Twitter, the free micro-blogging utility that allows members to share short messages, or tweets. Twitter has suddenly become the digital arena for people to observe and engage in pop culture. Demi Moore saves lives on her Twitter page, and Lindsay Lohan publicly breaks up with significant others on hers. It’s also a place where brands can interact with consumers directly, to either reinforce strong relationships with their loyal bases or attract new followings.

Beyond any presence of self-branded messaging, Twitter largely remains an ad-free environment. However, it was only a matter of time before the service began to show promise for marketers. In early April, women’s network Glam Media developed Tinker, a tool in which users can aggregate posts on Twitter and Facebook feeds around certain keywords or events, such as “Oscars” or “SuperBowl,” providing unique opportunities for advertisers. Google, on the other hand, has figured out another way to leverage Twitter for its advertising offerings. The search company has worked with the service to allow advertisers with Twitter pages to list their five most recent tweets in banner ads across its AdSense network.

In a bold move this past March, Skittles.com became a directory that sent visitors to user-generated-content sites where they could add to the interactive discussion of the brand.
In a bold move this past March, Skittles.com became a directory that sent visitors to user-generated-content sites where they could add to the interactive discussion of the brand.

The first advertiser to use that tool was TurboTax, which is attempting to increase its awareness in the social-media universe and increase followers to its branded Twitter page. The effort appears to be twofold: to add new customers and to provide a more personal level of service to those customers. For example, users post questions or complaints, and a TurboTax representative responds directly on the company’s Twitter page to address the concern.For TurboTax, Twitter functions as a free vehicle for a brand to leverage enhanced public relations through digital media. By functioning as an open, social environment, Twitter can provide brands with an online meeting place for consumers in a way that MySpace and Facebook often cannot. Twitter is not responsible for the outcomes of these communication lines, so companies must wisely decide how they should use the service to achieve its digital objectives.

In a bold move this past March, the Mars candy brand Skittles decided to give control of its home page to consumers. The brand’s home page, Skittles.com, was relaunched so that it no longer reflected the website of a typical consumer-package-goods brand. Rather, Skittles.com became a directory that sent visitors to user-generated-content sites where they could add to the interactive discussion of the brand. The Skittles.com home page directed viewers to Wikipedia’s entry on Skittles; the “Media” section took users to the brand’s YouTube channel; “Chatter” led to the Skittles Twitter page; and “Friends” brought viewers to the official Skittles Facebook page. Skittles.com’s navigator, a permanent fixture on all pages, was located on the upper-right corner of the screen and acted as the user’s remote control around the Skittles universe. This social-media run by Skittles is often described by analysts in the industry as the “siteless site” test.

Regardless of how innovative the approach might appear, Mars quickly discovered that not everyone would respond favorably to the invitation for feedback. Many Twitter users felt they were being pandered to and, quite frankly, were insulted that the brand assumed the public would have nothing but positive feedback.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steven Cisowski is a media planner with Razorfish’s Philadelphia office, working on pharmaceutical and health brands.

Many users skeptical and critical of the program posted negative comments on the page, sarcastic in tone and damaging to the brand’s public-relations efforts. In response, the Skittles.com page soon ceased to drive users to the branded Twitter page but instead directed them to the Twitter search-results page for the term “Skittles,” which often showed myriad unrelated and incoherent tweets that did not necessarily enhance the brand.

This campaign seems to point out two pertinent ways brands can interact with social media, particular with Twitter. First, brands must be open to the fact that if they give all the control to users, they must be prepared for negativity. In fact, it may even be wise to automatically assume that a lot of the feedback from a social-media perspective may be negative.

Secondly, the public seems very disenchanted with advertising in social media, so much so that users will complain about it at length for very feeble reasons. Keeping in mind that Twitter users have the choice to either follow or not follow a certain page, advertisers must realize that if given the chance, the public will seize the opportunity to talk negatively about a brand if the intention is to promote rather than to provide a substantial offering to its customers.

Trying to sell shares in a private startup? Join the club!

June 11, 2009 | Matt Marshall

SharesPost is just the latest in a host of companies that are trying to make it easier to buy and sell shares in private companies.

Until recently, the assumption for most startups was that they’d get sold or go public in a reasonable amount of time — say six or seven years. That meant founders and executives of these companies didn’t really worry too much about finding an early way to sell shares.

But the dearth of IPOs — there have been some, but far fewer than in past years — has blown up that assumption and ushered in a set of companies trying to help founders and others sell their shares.

SharesPost says it has an online platform that is the “first to bring true liquidity” to the private equity market, by directly connecting buyers and sellers of private equity, and then automating the stock sale to the buyer. And it does this without charging commission.  It has listings to buy and/or sell shares of several recognized private companies, including Facebook, Tesla Motors, SolarCity and XDX. As is the case for most exchanges, buyers must either be institutional investors or individuals with high net-worth, or about $100 million. The Los Angeles company hopes to charge a monthly subscription fee for buyers and sellers.

Last month, well-known Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tim Draper and some other investors announced something called XChange, a private exchange for institutional investors to trade shares of start-up companies. Draper and his friends invested $1 million into the company in February. But that effort is being driven more by interests of venture capitalist hoping to sell shares: In what is almost an ersatz IPO, it is a way to let entrepreneurs raise money, while giving VCs a way to cash in on their investments. It plans to actually launch September. Start-ups need to have at least $20 million in revenue to participate in XChange.

There are hosts of other efforts that allow the buying and selling of stock. One called InsideVenture has tried to do something similar. A group of venture capitalists formed InsideVenture as a way to vet private companies that had reached a certain maturity and are hoping to then take these companies to institutional investors to sell parts of the companies to them in return for cash — providing another way for venture capitalists to exit their investments. The NYSE has supported that initiative and the two are working together in something called a Hybrid Private-Public Offering (HPPO). Companies file an S-1 with the SEC, but that process is aided by InsideVenture to raise money from both its existing investors (which would hold about 30 percent of the stock) as well as qualified retail investors (holding the rest). The company has yet to announce any actual transactions.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq OMX Group runs a portal for the private placement of stock. NASDAQ formed an alliance with another group, GS-TrUE, formed by Goldman Sachs two years ago.

Another company, Second Market recently launched a marketplace for buying and selling startup stock. The New York company allows venture capitalists, founders and private company employees to sell their stock to accredited investors. He wants to create a market for about 100 venture-backed startups, including Facebook and Twitter. Another company, StartupExchange, is doing something similar, for very early stage companies, but has yet to really get off the ground. That’s not to be confused with Startup Exchange, which is a separate non-trading site, offering information about companies. It is run by Tradevibes, a database of private company profiles.

Of course, there’s a bunch of other techniques for selling private company stocks. Special funds that buy stakes in startups from venture firms have existed for some time. They’re called “secondary” funds, because they’re buying the stock from the primary holder, and thus become the second holder. In something called a secondary “strip sale,” venture firms sell their stakes in private companies to these secondary firms merely to raise cash in order to make other investments. Industry Ventures, a San Francisco firm is just one of several firms that specialize in buying stakes in both venture capital firms and in the private companies backed by venture firms. Millennial, HarbourVest Partners and Saints Capital are three others.

June 24, 2009 | Paul Boutin

ustreampageFacebook’s new Live Stream Box is a cut-and-paste HTML widget that can be added to a website to let Facebook users chat alongside a live event. Updates to the stream post quickly and then wash off the screen, to maximize the live-event feel.

In the example shown below, Mashable founder and poster boy Pete Cashmore has set up a Live Stream Box next to a video window.

cashmoreAt the same time, Facebook and Ustream have integrated Ustream’s live video technology so that it will play within a Facebook page. But Ustream won’t initially be available on regular people’s pages. The initial collaboration between Ustream and Facebook will be limited to pages that tout brands or entertainment artists, such as the Jonas Brothers shown here.

Why won’t Ustream be available for everyone on Facebook? Because Ustream can’t support that many sessions, and because Ustream custom-builds the player page. There’ll be a submission process for people and companies who want to be able to stream live. Ustream will choose those it wants to work with. There are two flavors of custom-built Ustream: An ad-free version that requires a development fee, and an ad-supported version. Ustreams sample page for the Jonas Brothers, above, calls out the headers (the area labeled a) and banners (labeled b) that can be customized.

June 29, 2009 | Benjamin J. Weisman

benjamin-weisman-headshotNames, in their simplest form, are how an association is created between an individual and tangible objects, actions and concepts. These labels and associations can affect how people will ultimately perceive an entity, both on and offline — so they matter for brands.

Meanwhile, leading social network Facebook has been making a series of changes to their platform in an attempt to facilitate the creation a stronger bond between individuals, communities, and brands.

Two weeks ago Facebook began letting people register “vanity” URLs, either for personal profile pages or for public profile pages. By getting a vanity URL, these people can further develop their presence on the web. These URLs can be easily recognized anywhere (you can imagine seeing http://www.facebook.com/coca-cola in a Coke ad, for example), and they can help a profile page appear more prominently in search results. Of course, there’s another incentive to get a vanity URL – someone could use a vanity URL with your name or brand to spread false information or take your business, as has happened with many domains on the web.

While Facebook’s vanity URLs are noteworthy, this has been available on blogs for some time, as well as other social networks like MySpace and Twitter. Twitter’s microblogging service has proven itself to be an especially fast way for marketers to reach a lot of people. But unlike Twitter, MySpace and blogs,  the 200 million-some monthly active  users on Facebook tend to share information privately with their real-world friends. For brands, Facebook URLs are a new way to tap into those connections.

Smaller brands get access vanity URLs

To prevent squatting, Facebook put a couple temporary measures in place. Any owner of a public profile page that registered within a couple weeks before the vanity URLs were opened was not allowed to register a URL. Neither was any public profile page with less than 1,000 fans. This way, anyone who had recently or unsuccessfully attempted to copy a major brand via a new page (say, by creating their own fan page for Coke), wouldn’t be able to register.

Now that users and larger, older public page owners have registered their URLs, Facebook has opened up registration to any page owner starting yesterday, Sunday, June 28 at 12:01am Eastern Time.

facebook-coca-cola

How will this affect smaller brands?

Full access to vanity URLs is comes right as Facebook rolls out a number of other public-facing features useful to brands. Facebook’s new “Everything is Public by Default” setting lets individuals and public page owners send out status updates and other information that is publicly available.

It’s interesting that in such a short time Facebook has made such significant changes to the platform. What’s extremely interesting about this is that they originally gained momentum and a sense of value to many early users in that it was a closed community that was more private. It wasn’t as much about lifecasting – it was about small networks and the areas they overlapped.

For most Facebook users, the ‘public by default’ setting won’t have much of an effect on their daily habits — they don’t want to make their private conversations public. Nonetheless, Facebook is letting them do so, and in this way creating ‘mineable’ data like what Twitter has. The status updates, links people share, comments, friend relationships, and more that people share are, in sum, valuable information in determining what sort of things people like — and would like advertising for.

For brands, the ‘everything public’ is great, since they will have the ability display a public-facing profile that can be reviewed by the anyone and everyone, showcased by the website itself and its user-base. A company can now have their social media presence elevated as a true extension of their brands and services.

Facebook’s new ‘Hybrid Engagement Ads’

fb1Facebook is beginning to make ads more interactive. For example, you might see an ad for a brand’s page, see a “become a fan” button, and officially become a fan without having going to the page itself. The advertisements are just the next step of the ‘in-feed’ ads it has had for years. As with sharing, their relationship to the new Vanity URLs is simple – Through naming there’s an opportunity for consistency within the ad message or title.

The effectiveness of a Hybrid Ad will be related to the proposition being offered through that ad. The ability to engage in ads that can have an immediate action will also depend on that actions result. That Facebook makes the ads appears as part of the user’s profile experience lends the high possibility that many users will trust these ads and engage, as long as the proposition is relevant.

Conclusion: Start experimenting

All of these changes, the Vanity URLs, Hybrid Ads, and the overall trend toward public-facing information, can be viewed in light of Facebook’s goal: Blending relevant advertising  with the content its users are sharing. The URLs make the brand more transmittable and accessible, while the ads invite users to create and disseminate co-created content. This branded content then becomes increasingly public, as Facebook rolls out similar changes.

Facebook’s product is continuing to evolve. But the product line-up has become diverse and built-out enough where brands large and small can benefit through trying them out.

Benjamin J. Weisman, is a Digital Director and Lead Strategist with Iris, a global, independent, integrated marketing agency working across all media and all disciplines. Working with global clients which include Sony Ericsson, Sony, adidas, ING, Shell, Coca-Cola and Hertz, Iris delivers award-winning creative work and integrated solutions across advertising, direct, digital, PR, retail, experiential and sponsorship, in addition to management consultancy.

June 29, 2009 | Dean Takahashi

wedbush-2Game publishers should be able to grow revenues 9 percent a year in the U.S. and Europe as they embrace digital content and find ways to extend the consumption of games for the current generation of game consoles, a new report says.

The market for console game software is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9 percent from 2009 to 2011, while hardware revenues will decline 25 percent a year due to falling prices, according to Michael Pachter and Edward Woo, the analysts who created the report for Wedbush Morgan Securities. All other entertainment is expected to grow zero to 2 percent in the same time frame, the report says. That’s a bullish report, given that game industry growth has turned negative in the past few months as the recession slows down demand.

The 210-page report details the size of the game industry as well as major trends within it and how they affect startups trying to find opportunities in the digital content portion of the game industry. As such, it provides some good insight into several game-industry issues I discussed in one of our most popular posts about the game business.

wedbush-3Games are the fastest growing entertainment market with a bright digital content future. In 2008, worldwide hardware and software sales were $44 billion, while US hardware and software sales were $19.5 billion. That compares to the combined US movie box office and DVD movie market of $22 billion and entertainment-related book sales of $9 billion. Right now, games are about 15 percent of the overall $75 billion in entertainment spending in the US. That percentage is expected to grow, since games are the fastest-growing entertainment sector. A reason for the growth is that gamers continue to play games even as they get older; the average age of gamers is now 35, compared to under 20 in the 1980s. There are also many more female gamers, who now account for 35 percent of the console market. In a separate report today, market researcher NPD said that females are a growing part of the console audience.

Beyond 2011, revenues from non-traditional sources — online games, casual games, mobile phone games, downloadable content, and in-game advertising — are expected to contribute meaningfully, offsetting slowing growth of packaged goods software sales, the report says. Over 10 years, digital content is expected to account for almost all of the game industry’s growth.

Nintendo holds the enviable position in the console and portable business. In past game console cycles, sales dipped in the transitions. Software sales in the U.S. were down 9 percent in 2000, for instance, and 3 percent in 2005. The current generation of consoles began when Microsoft launched the Xbox 360 in November, 2005. Portables, meanwhile, saw a renaissance that began in 2004 with the launch of the Nintendo DS. The launch of the Wii and the DS Lite in 2006 changed everything in Nintendo’s favor. Since 2005, overall software revenues have grown 60 percent, largely because of Nintendo’s success.

wedbush-1

Nintendo’s Wii is expected to be the dominant console, with an expected 49 percent share of the U.S. and European markets at the end of 2009, compared to 29 percent for the Xbox 360 and 23 percent for the PS 3. But by 2011, Sony is expected to pull even with Microsoft in the No. 2 spot. Of the $44 billion worldwide sales in 2008, about 40 percent, or $17.7 billion, was hardware sales.

Hardware sales of consoles are tracking about the same as they were in the last generation of consoles. To date, high sales of the Wii are offsetting slower unit sales of the PS 3 and Xbox 360. The report says there were roughly 78 million current-generation consoles sold worldwide as of year-end 2008, with 16 million PS3s, 23 million Xbox 360s and 39 million Wiis sold. That compares to 78 million legacy consoles sold worldwide at year-end 2003, with 54 million PS2s, 12 million Xboxes and 12 million GameCubes.The report expects consoles per gaming household to stay constant at about 1.4.

Nintendo has essentially turned the tables on Sony. It succeeded in grabbing the mass market, while the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 snared the hardcore gamers with high-definition TVs. Nintendo started out with a low-priced console aimed at party gamers with the added twist of the unique Wii motion-sensing controller.
The Wii enabled much earlier and broader participation of the mass market than would otherwise happen in a console cycle.

Wedbush Morgan predicts that the console cycle is likely to last beyond the typical five-year mark, which begins anew in 2010. While Nintendo  may introduce a high-definition version of the Wii, the console makers are not likely to be motivated to introduce new machines in the near future.

Costs are going up, but digital distribution has promise. The cost of making games has gone up. In the last generation, the average console game required 18 to 36 months to finish and cost an average of $4 million. In the current cycle, console games take 24 to 36 months to develop. Average development costs are now $8-10 million. Those costs are starting to subside as developers learn how to make games better.

Online games, casual games and mobile are expected to grow steadily, while downloadable content and in-game advertising will really pick up once the consoles hit a higher penetration of overall households. Activision Blizzard is an exception, since a quarter of its revenue and half of its profits come from the online game World of Warcraft.

Online subscription and game-related downloads are expected to be a $3 billion opportunity as video games on demand services such as OnLive are launched. Wedbush Morgan predicts that OnLive will be a breakthrough success and will be widely adopted. But it will be a long time before such services take a big chunk of the market away from retailers.

Asia, meanwhile, is likely to be the market where massively multiplayer online games such as WoW take off. There are an estimated 10 million MMO players in Asia, generating monthly revenues of $500-700 million. Free-to-play games, supported by the micro-transactions such as the sales of virtual goods, are also a small but fast-growing part of the game market.

Digital downloads will eventually become a big market, but for now they are hampered by small hard drive space on the consoles (20 gigabytes to 80 gigabytes on an Xbox 360).

The iPhone and in-game ad opportunities are over-hyped. Cell phone games are roughly $2 billion overall, largely from downloads on older phones. But cell phone games are not expected to close in on console or portable game sales levels for some time, largely due to the hardware limitations of the devices. Cell phone games are viewed as a path to making casual gamers, particularly women, into more active gamers. But the market in terms of dollars is still small, since the average paid game is about $2, and overall iPhone game revenues in the first year are about $400 million.

In-games ads have been hyped in past years, but Wedbush Morgan believes that it’s a smaller opportunity, ranging from $2 -10 billion a few years from now, depending on the success of measuring user interaction with ads.

Posted by: Patrick | July 1, 2009

Forbes.com: A Corp Guide for Social Media

Forbes.com

O’Reilly Insights
A Corporate Guide For Social Media
Joshua-Michele Ross, 06.30.09, 6:20 PM ETSEBASTOPOL, Calif. –

A PC in every home and workplace, a smart phone in every hand, all connected 24/7 to the hundreds of millions (and growing rapidly) of other people actively participating online via blogs, social networks, Twitter and multiplayer games.

Whether you call it Web 2.0, the social Web or any other neologism, the new network economy is about communities, collaboration, peer production and user-generated content. It is a place where business reputations are defined by customer opinions and ratings, where press is delivered by independent bloggers, and product development and insight is driven by customers. As digital natives–those who have grown up with the Internet–flood the workplace, your employees will expect to be part of the social Web and they’ll have a lot to contribute.

Does this sound like business as usual? It shouldn’t. Social technologies turn many corporate policies upside down.

Big corporations are scratching their heads trying to figure out how to harness the benefits of increased employee participation while mitigating the risks. Clearly there is no one-size-fits-all: If you are in financial services you have unique concerns for privacy, if you are part of the YMCA, you must be aware that having counselors “friend” teenagers is not appropriate, etc.

That said, here is a set of guidelines for corporations considering how to integrate social media in the workplace.

If you are an executive, keep in mind two points as you gear up your social media strategy: First, social technologies including blogs, social networks and Twitter are communication tools. That means a company’s social media approach must integrate with its existing communications channels and goals. Second, if you think these guidelines don’t apply to you, you are probably already on the endangered species list.

Social Web Guiding Principles for Employers

Lead by example.

Rules aren’t enough. Leaders should model the behavior they would like to see their employees take. Chief executive Jonathan Schwartz of Sun Microsystems set a standard on blogging. Chief Executive Tim O’Reilly has established the bar on Twitter. A corollary to this rule: don’t delegate social media to interns or people who can’t possibly represent your culture and brand.

Build your policies around job performance, not fuzzy concerns about productivity.

If your employees are using Facebook at work, they are also likely checking work e-mail after dinner or at odd hours of the day. Don’t ask them to give up the former if you expect them to continue the latter. If you have good performance measurements, playing the “lost productivity” card is a canard.

Encourage responsible use.

Encourage employees to use social tools to engage and interact with one another and with customers. In all likelihood they are already using the social Web. The difference is that currently they are using these tools without any guidance. Company’s like Zappo’s encourage using social tools. Check out http://twitter.zappos.com/.

Grant Equal Access.

Don’t block your employees from any site that is already talking about your products or that you would like to see talking up your products (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, blogs and so on.). I have had many experiences sending instructional material to clients and having them tell me that they can’t view the video or site at work. Enough said.

Provide Training.

The social Web is a cultural phenomenon; don’t go there without a guide. Consider providing some form of education for your employees (including discussion about what tools are available, how to use them and what are the prevailing cultural norms for use). You can use one of your own employees (a power user) or bring someone in–but get educated.

Begin from a Position of Trust.

While there are possible negatives involved in having employees on the social Web, most employees have common sense. Begin with a set of possibilities first (increasing awareness, improving customer service, gaining customer insight and so on) then draw up a list of worst-case scenarios (bad mouthing the company, inappropriate language, leaking IP, to name a few). Modify the guiding principles for your employees below to help mitigate the risks you’ve identified.

Once you embrace having your employees participate in the social Web, give them a few basic guiding principles in how they conduct themselves. You can start with these:

Social Web Guiding Principles for Employees

Listen before you talk.

Before entering any conversation, understand the context. Who are you speaking to? Is this a forum for “trolls and griefers?” Is there a good reason for you to join the conversation? If your answer is yes, then follow these rules of engagement:

Say who you are.

In responding to any work-related social media activities always disclose your work relationship.

Show your personality.

You weren’t hired to be an automaton. Be conversational while remaining professional. If your personal life is one that you (or your employer) don’t want to mix up with your work, then consider establishing both private and public profiles, with appropriate sharing settings.

Respond to ideas not to people.

In the context of business, always argue over ideas not personalities. Don’t question motives but stay focused on the merit of ideas.

Know your facts and cite your sources.

When making claims, always refer to your sources, using hyperlinks when possible. Always give proper attribution (by linkbacks, public mentions, re-tweets and so on).

Stay on the record.

Everything you say can (and likely will) be used in the court of public opinion–forever. So assume you’re “on the record.” Never say anything you wouldn’t say to someone’s face and in the presence of others. Never use profanity or demeaning language.

If you respond to a problem, you own it.

If you become the point of contact for a customer or employee complaint, stay with it until it is resolved.

Has your company crafted a social media policy? If so, please share your thoughts here. If you are grappling with issues, what are they? I will respond to all comments. In the meantime you can catch me on Twitter at @jmichele.

As vice president with O’Reilly Radar, Joshua-Michéle Ross runs O’Reilly Media’s consulting practice, helping clients apply Web 2.0 principles. He is also working on a video series, “The Future at Work.” E-mail him at joshua.ross@oreilly.com. Follow him on Twitter: @jmichele.

Posted by: Patrick | July 7, 2009

Forbes: Making Facebook Pay

Forbes.com

Social Networks
Making Facebook Pay
Evan Hessel, 07.06.09, 5:15 PM ETLOS ANGELES –

Social networks like Facebook and MySpace can be scary places for big marketers.

Who knows what kind of vulgar or offensive material resides on their heavily trafficked pages? Fearful of plastering their brand images next to uncontrollable personal content, advertisers have been slow to move big chunks of their marketing budgets to the sites, despite the lure of massive audiences.

Facebook’s user base has more than quadrupled since the beginning of 2008 to more than 200 million users, but the company will generate an estimated $500 million in ad sales this year. By comparison, The New York Times Co.’s digital arm, which includes NYTimes.com, Boston.com and About.com, had just 50.8 million unique monthly visitors but raked in $352 million in revenues last year.

For at least a few firms selling ads on social networks, that dynamic seems to be reversing. RockYou, a big maker of widgets–games and other applications that run inside Facebook profiles–is having success using novel ad delivery systems to assuage big brands’ fears of social content. Among their most popular widgets: Superwall, a tool for sharing pictures and notes; Pieces of Flair, an application that helps Facebook users decorate their profiles with digital tchotchkes, and Speedracing, in which players customize cars and race friends within social networks.

The 3-year-old Redwood City, Calif., outfit recently sold campaigns to Volkswagen, General Motors and the Gap incorporating eye-catching videos, simple games and quirky quizzes distributed via an ad network linked to its hundreds of widgets.

Compared to last year, RockYou Chief Revenue Officer Rogelio Choi says he is seeing a 25% jump in the number of campaigns his team sells each month to as many as 100 per month. Ad deals range in size from around $50,000 to more than $500,000.

To be sure, RockYou isn’t the only outfit convincing advertisers to spend on sites like Facebook and MySpace. Facebook itself has won over brand advertisers like Microsoft and Experian with its “engagement ads,” which include small boxes on users’ homepages and interactive elements like videos and corporate fan pages. Slide, another maker of widgets for social networks with 155 million unique monthly users, has sold campaigns to firms like Fox Home Entertainment and VitaminWater.

Yet for the past few years, the most prevalent method for advertising on Facebook has been the social network’s self-serve display advertising system, which allows marketers to post small ad boxes on the pages of Facebook users.

While the system is easy to use, the ad boxes are tiny compared to other Web ads, and marketers have limited control over the type of content next to their ad. Some big brands have used the display system; but small, local advertisers and “performance” marketers–companies that use ads to prompt users to engage in actions like visiting a weight loss Web site or filling out a online education application–dominate.

Hoping to prompt a small percentage of Web users to click away from social network sites, such performance marketers gobble up huge volumes of ads on Facebook and MySpace, usually paying comparatively tiny prices.

RockYou is convincing giant marketers to shift some of their spending to Facebook by assuring them the ads won’t appear next to embarrassing content, says Lisa Marino, RockYou’s vice president of sales. Ads only run within RockYou’s applications, which range from car racing games to digital pets to birthday cards. “I can guarantee you won’t be next to naked people,” she says.

For each of RockYou’s applications, the firm employs two programmers who tweak the games to figure out how often to reward players with digital prizes to keep them happy–and coming back for more. They also study how minor changes in the game impact how often Facebook users send them to other friends. The approach has worked so far: RockYou’s applications currently reach some 130 million unique users each month.

Central to RockYou’s pitch to advertisers is their expertise in prompting Facebook users to interact with both their own games and marketers’ ads and applications. RockYou sells its ads in traditional display advertising arrangements–marketers pay a fixed rate for a certain number of Web users to be shown their ad. Yet it also guarantees advertisers that 1% to 2% of users will click on special features within the ad, such as a video or quiz. Even better–Marino says those watching a video forward it via Facebook to an average of three friends. The result: While social network ads averaged $0.20 per thousand impressions in the fourth quarter of last year, according to advertising analytics firm Pubmatic, RockYou says it charges advertisers between $2 and $5 per thousand views.

Traditional media companies like the digital arms of newspapers have already started to tweak the advertising models to create more engrossing experiences for users. (See “Gray Lady Juicing Up Digital Ads.”) But if Web publishers hope to outsell offline competitors like television and magazines, they need to follow RockYou’s lead in embracing the interactivity and social nature of the Web. Make the ads fun and easy to share with friends, and ad dollars should follow.

July 7, 2009

Venture Capitalists Look for a Return to the A B C’s

SAN FRANCISCO — For a group accustomed to looking outward for the next big thing, Silicon Valley’s venture capitalists are getting very introspective these days.

Much of the soul searching along Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, where many of the venture capitalists have offices, is leading to the same conclusion: venture capital needs to go back to basics. The biggest names in the industry are concerned about low returns and are blaming several factors: funds that have grown too large, the M.B.A.’s that have invaded the industry and older partners who have lost touch with what is new in technology.

“I personally believe and I think the evidence proves that the venture industry has gotten too big, the funds have gotten too big,” said Alan Patricof, an investor for 40 years who backed America Online and Apple, at a recent venture investing conference in San Francisco. “Our biggest challenge today for venture capital is to think smaller.”

Mr. Patricof is part of a growing chorus of voices calling for the amount of money in venture funds to shrink drastically to levels last seen two decades ago. His firm, Greycroft Partners, is taking a retro approach with a $75 million fund that makes smaller investments.

Many in the industry predict that a third to a half of the 882 active venture capital firms could disappear, if only because poor returns will force underperforming firms to shut down. It is already happening: Investment in venture capital funds shrank to $4.3 billion in the first quarter, from $7.1 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

There will be “a ton of venture capitalists who disappear over the next 18 to 20 months, and it’s going to be painful for a while,” said Bryan Roberts, a partner at Venrock. “But the best thing that could have happened to V.C. is this economic crisis, because it’s lowering the flow of capital into these funds.”

The source of concern is lower returns brought on in part by a dearth of public stock offerings. Five-year returns in the venture capital industry, which reached 48 percent in 2000 at the height of the dot-com bubble, were just 6 percent through 2008, according to the National Venture Capital Association.

Most venture capitalists say the trouble began amid the excesses of the dot-com era. Before then, most of the investors in venture capital were university endowments, foundations and wealthy families. But in the late 1990s, endowments sharply increased their stake in illiquid assets, including venture capital. Big pension funds saw how much money these investors were making and wanted in as well. The amount invested annually by venture capitalists swelled to $104 billion in 2000, from $2.7 billion in 1990, according to the venture capital association. Today it is about $30 billion.

The surge of money is in large part to blame for the recent poor performance, many in the industry say. “The big financiers of venture capital are force-feeding the industry, and it’s like force-feeding cows — it makes the industry sick,” said Paul Kedrosky, a senior fellow at the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation who recently called for the venture industry to contract by half. “It’s a returns-driven business, and the only way you can post better returns is by shrinking.”

Instead of figuring out how much start-ups actually need, too many firms calculate how much they have in their funds, divide it by the number of partners and the number of boards they can sit on, and come up with a sum to invest in each start-up, said Ben Horowitz, a partner in a new venture firm, Andreessen Horowitz. That often means forcing $3 million into a company that needs $300,000, he said.

Overfinancing results in too many firms backing too many start-ups that do the same thing, some critics say, and it inflates the valuation of companies so that investors get smaller returns when they eventually sell.

The good news is that Web start-ups do not need as much money today, said Dana Settle, a partner at Greycroft Partners. “You can actually make a nice venture return if you sell them for less than $100 million, you just have to go in at the right price,” she said.

Greycroft has a $75 million fund, invests $500,000 to $3 million in each start-up and does not always demand a board seat. Neither does Andreessen Horowitz, which will invest as little as $50,000 in a start-up from its $300 million fund.

“That is a much better model than putting a bunch of money in upfront,” said Marc Andreessen, Mr. Horowitz’s partner.

Mr. Andreessen and Mr. Horowitz also attribute the venture industry’s struggles in part to the business school graduates who now populate Sand Hill Road offices, taking the place of the entrepreneurs who first formed venture firms. (Mr. Andreessen is a founder of Netscape, and he and Mr. Horowitz founded Opsware, a software company bought by Hewlett-Packard.)

When too many venture capitalists serve on a start-up’s board with “no proper judgment, who have never built a company,” they tend to get too involved in running the company and, in high-pressure situations, imagine problems that do not exist, Mr. Horowitz said. “Their insecurity and own anxiety filters into the advice,” he said.

Franklin Pitcher Johnson, a veteran venture capitalist known as Pitch who founded Asset Management Company in 1965, agrees. He had this advice for would-be venture capitalists at a recent conference: “Get a real job in an operating company, because what we back is operating companies — until you understand that, you can’t be much of a venture capitalist.”

Still others blame the fact that money flows to firms with the biggest past successes, even though the venture field can be an industry of one-hit wonders.

“The people who were venture gods in the 1990s are 10 years older than they were,” said Judith Elsea, co-founder and managing director of Weathergage Capital, which invests in venture funds. Experience is an advantage in any industry, but venture might be different, Ms. Elsea said, because “technology is so dynamic.”

Despite all the calls for a return to the old-school model of venture capital, some new technologies, like those in clean energy, require huge amounts of money, so some firms will need to remain large.

And certain investors dispute that too much money is the problem. Timothy Draper, founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, thinks there should be more venture capitalists, not fewer. “I don’t think we have enough venture capitalists to spread the wealth to the seven billion creative minds out there,” he said.

July 11, 2009 | Dean Takahashi

online-game-sitesThe number of online game players rose 22 percent in May compared to a year ago, drawing more than 87 million players in the U.S., according to market researcher comScore.

That improvement is a stark contrast to the slide in overall console game revenues in the U.S., which fell 23 percent compared to a year ago in dollar sales, according to market researcher NPD.

The comScore analysis showed that gamers are increasingly opting for cheap entertainment alternatives, driven by the recession. Some analysts are expecting console games to post a 20 percent drop in game sales in June, compared to a year ago. Later in the year, a rebound is expected. NPD numbers for June console sales will be out on July 16.

Yahoo Games ranked No. 1 in the category with 19.4 million visitors (up 6 percent from a year ago), or roughly 22 percent of the online game market in May. It was followed by EA online with 18 million visitors, up 34 percent from a year ago, Nickelodeon Casual Games with 14.8 million visitors, and WildTangent Network with 13.8 milli0n visitors, up 16 percent.

GSN Games Networks grew 563 percent to 6 million visitors, thanks to the addition of partners WorldWinner.com and CrazyMonkeyGames.com. Online games are growing at 10 times the rate of the overall U.S. Internet population, said Edward Hunter, comScore director of gaming solutions. The category is expanding both through the growth of web sites and through the growth of widgets that allow games to be distributed across a variety of sites.

Viral distribution of games (where a company’s game appears on numerous different sites) is catching on. MochiMedia reached a combined audience of 16.9 million in May, greater than all but two sites in the online gaming category. Games2Win reached 1.8 million people, which compares favorably with the top 20 sites in the category, while Tetris Online reached 165,000 people.

As console games slide, online games increase 22 percent compared to a year ago

online-game-sites

The number of online game players rose 22 percent in May compared to a year ago, drawing more than 87 million players in the U.S., according to market researcher comScore.

That improvement is a stark contrast to the slide in overall console game revenues in the U.S., which fell 23 percent compared to a year ago in dollar sales, according to market researcher NPD.

The comScore analysis showed that gamers are increasingly opting for cheap entertainment alternatives, driven by the recession. Some analysts are expecting console games to post a 20 percent drop in game sales in June, compared to a year ago. Later in the year, a rebound is expected. NPD numbers for June console sales will be out on July 16.

Yahoo Games ranked No. 1 in the category with 19.4 million visitors (up 6 percent from a year ago), or roughly 22 percent of the online game market in May. It was followed by EA online with 18 million visitors, up 34 percent from a year ago, Nickelodeon Casual Games with 14.8 million visitors, and WildTangent Network with 13.8 milli0n visitors, up 16 percent.

GSN Games Networks grew 563 percent to 6 million visitors, thanks to the addition of partners WorldWinner.com and CrazyMonkeyGames.com. Online games are growing at 10 times the rate of the overall U.S. Internet population, said Edward Hunter, comScore director of gaming solutions. The category is expanding both through the growth of web sites and through the growth of widgets that allow games to be distributed across a variety of sites.

Viral distribution of games (where a company’s game appears on numerous different sites) is catching on. MochiMedia reached a combined audience of 16.9 million in May, greater than all but two sites in the online gaming category. Games2Win reached 1.8 million people, which compares favorably with the top 20 sites in the category, while Tetris Online reached 165,000 people.

Posted by: Patrick | July 20, 2009

MediaPost: Brands Must Do Better in Social Media


Story
Study: Brands Must Do Better in Social Media
Mark Walsh, Jul 12, 2009 07:00 PM
Social media sites aren’t where most people go to get recommendations on products and services. Even so, marketers must still try to reach consumers through social media since that’s where conversations about brands are increasingly taking place.

That’s one of the key conclusions of a new study on social influence marketing by interactive agency Razorfish. The report released today also includes a new index developed by the firm which scores brands based on how they’re being discussed online.

For the study, Razorfish surveyed 1,000 consumers split evenly between active social network users and a broader sample of the general population. Overall, 80% belonged to at least one social network and 40% were active in two.

The findings revealed a paradox, though, in that 62% say they don’t seek out brand opinions via social media but 71% share recommendations on products and services on social sites at least once every few months.

What gives? The study suggests people are influencing each others’ purchase decisions even when they’re not consciously asking for purchase advice.

For that reason, brands have to participate directly in these online discussions or face growing irrelevance, says Razorfish. But they have to bring credible voices that “need to be more engaging, personal, humble, authentic and participatory than traditional advertising images,” advises the report.

Establishing an authentic presence in social media is where many marketers fall down, according to Shiv Singh, vice president and global social media lead at Razorfish. “Most brands aren’t doing it successfully,” he said in an interview last week.

Among the exceptions he points to is “Dunkin’ Dave,” aka Dave Puner, communications manager for Dunkin’ Brands Inc., who has become the company’s voice on Twitter. He’s created a genial, informal persona through the microblogging service that marks a departure from traditional top-down marketing.

At the same time, Singh acknowledged it can be difficult for a corporation to entrust individual, sometimes junior, employees with such a direct role in shaping its brand. Not Pizza Hut. The restaurant chain gained attention this spring when it announced it was looking for a summer “Twintern” to be its voice on Twitter.

Razorfish advises that all brands should at least grasp how social media plays into purchase decisions. The study indicates that “social influencers,” people active on social platforms, tend to hold the most sway during the consideration phase leading up to a purchase. Close family and friends play by far the biggest roles at the initial awareness and final “action” stages relating to a purchase.

Corporate bloggers typically rated at or near the bottom among influencers at each stage of the process.

When it came to specific industry sectors that appealed to users in social media, music and entertainment topped the list among categories that also included auto, retail and apparel, travel, home and garden, automotive and financial services. Only 14% were likely to interact with a financial brand compared to 46% for an entertainment one.

“Our data suggests that brands need to do a much better job engaging consumers on social platforms, as witnessed by the lukewarm reception and high level of indifference consumers have about brands in social media,” states the report.

To that end, Singh said brand pages on sites like Facebook should be part of a company’s overall marketing strategy and not treated as an afterthought. “If not, it’s a recipe for disaster,” he said. The study found that 29% of survey participants associated themselves with specific brands on social networks. And among “fans” of brand pages, 57% visited every few months or weeks.

To help brands gauge their social media standing, Razorfish also introduced the SIM (Social Influence Marketing) Score. Developed with TNS Cymfony the Keller Fay Group, the index attempts to measure a brand’s reach and “likeability” based on how it’s being discussed on social networks like MySpace, Facebook and YouTube. Offline word-of-mouth is also factored in.

The basic formula for deriving a brand’s SIM Score involves dividing “net sentiment” for a brand by the net sentiment for its industry group. (Net sentiment = positive + neutral conversations – negative conversations/total conversations.)

Looking at several companies in the auto industry using this method Ford came out on top with a score of 31, beating out Honda (30), Toyota (18), Nissan (15) and GM (5). Ouch.

Razorfish also used the same formula to rate the auto, finance, pharmaceutical and media industries overall. Auto came out way ahead with a score of 92, compared to 6.3, 0.96, and 0.33 for the other sectors respectively, mainly as a result of simply being discussed online far more than the rest.

There were 2.1 million auto-related conversations compared to only about 200,000 for the other categories combined. “This is surprising considering the fact that the financial services space underwent immense upheaval in the last six months of 2008,” noted the Razorfish study.

funnel

Posted by: Patrick | July 21, 2009

NYT: Liberal Suicide March

July 21, 2009
Op-Ed Columnist
Liberal Suicide March

It was interesting to watch the Republican Party lose touch with America. You had a party led by conservative Southerners who neither understood nor sympathized with moderates or representatives from swing districts.

They brought in pollsters to their party conferences to persuade their members that the country was fervently behind them. They were supported by their interest groups and cheered on by their activists and the partisan press. They spent federal money in an effort to buy support but ended up disgusting the country instead.

It’s not that interesting to watch the Democrats lose touch with America. That’s because the plotline is exactly the same. The party is led by insular liberals from big cities and the coasts, who neither understand nor sympathize with moderates. They have their own cherry-picking pollsters, their own media and activist cocoon, their own plans to lavishly spend borrowed money to buy votes.

This ideological overreach won’t be any more successful than the last one. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Monday confirms what other polls have found. Most Americans love Barack Obama personally, but support for Democratic policies is already sliding fast.

Approval of Obama’s handling of health care, for example, has slid from 57 percent to 49 percent since April. Disapproval has risen from 29 percent to 44 percent. As recently as June, voters earning more than $50,000 preferred Obama to the Republicans on health care by a 21-point margin. Now those voters are evenly split.

Most independents now disapprove of Obama’s health care strategy. In March, only 32 percent of Americans thought Obama was an old-style, tax-and-spend liberal. Now 43 percent do.

We’re only in the early stages of the liberal suicide march, but there already have been three phases. First, there was the stimulus package. You would have thought that a stimulus package would be designed to fight unemployment and stimulate the economy during a recession. But Congressional Democrats used it as a pretext to pay for $787 billion worth of pet programs with borrowed money. Only 11 percent of the money will be spent by the end of the fiscal year — a triumph of ideology over pragmatism.

Then there is the budget. Instead of allaying moderate anxieties about the deficits, the budget is expected to increase the government debt by $11 trillion between 2009 and 2019.

Finally, there is health care. Every cliché Ann Coulter throws at the Democrats is gloriously fulfilled by the Democratic health care bills. The bills do almost nothing to control health care inflation. They are modeled on the Massachusetts health reform law that is currently coming apart at the seams precisely because it doesn’t control costs. They do little to reward efficient providers and reform inefficient ones.

The House bill adds $239 billion to the federal deficit during the first 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It would pummel small businesses with an 8 percent payroll penalty. It would jack America’s top tax rate above those in Italy and France. Top earners in New York and California would be giving more than 55 percent of earnings to one government entity or another.

Nancy Pelosi has lower approval ratings than Dick Cheney and far lower approval ratings than Sarah Palin. And yet Democrats have allowed her policy values to carry the day — this in an era in which independents dominate the electoral landscape.

Who’s going to stop this leftward surge? Months ago, it seemed as if Obama would lead a center-left coalition. Instead, he has deferred to the Old Bulls on Capitol Hill on issue after issue.

Machiavelli said a leader should be feared as well as loved. Obama is loved by the Democratic chairmen, but he is not feared. On health care, Obama has emphasized cost control. The chairmen flouted his priorities because they don’t fear him. On cap and trade, Obama campaigned against giving away pollution offsets. The chairmen wrote their bill to do precisely that because they don’t fear him. On taxes, Obama promised that top tax rates would not go above Clinton-era levels. The chairmen flouted that promise because they don’t fear him.

Last week, the administration announced a proposal to take Medicare spending decisions away from Congress and lodge the power with technocrats in the executive branch. It’s a good idea, and it might lead to real cost savings. But there’s no reason to think that it will be incorporated into the final law. The chairmen will never surrender power to an administration they can override.

That leaves matters in the hands of the Blue Dog Democrats. These brave moderates are trying to restrain the fiscal explosion. But moderates inherently lack seniority (they are from swing districts). They are usually bought off by leadership at the end of the day.

And so here we are again. Every new majority overinterprets its mandate. We’ve been here before. We’ll be here again.

Posted by: Patrick | July 22, 2009

Forbes: Get Rid of Pelosi (AMEN!)

Forbes.com

Dangerous Thoughts
Get Rid Of Pelosi
Dan Gerstein, 07.22.09, 12:01 AM ET

At the beginning of the year, I predicted to a few Democratic friends that the most fateful decision of Barack Obama’s presidency could be installing Rahm Emanuel as his chief of staff. It’s not that I had a problem with Emanuel–I thought he was a good fit for many of Obama’s needs. But taking the young canny deal maker out of the House leadership meant Obama was giving up any chance of taking out the old guard, hyper-partisan Nancy Pelosi–who seemed exactly the wrong leader to amplify Obama’s new politics and move his healing change agenda on the Hill–as House speaker.

Six months later, the damaging consequences of this fateful choice are undeniable–and I believe irredeemable. On Pelosi’s watch, Congress screwed up the president’s stimulus plan, botched the oversight of the bailouts, rammed through a jerry-rigged, special interest-driven climate-change bill and is now sabotaging the president’s top policy priority by producing health care bills that won’t reduce health care costs. The level of partisan hostility in the House is arguably worse than any time in the last 20 years. And perhaps worst of all for Democrats, the party is splintering on multiple fronts, to the point that an arm of the DNC is actually running ads against Democratic senators.

Herein lies the biggest reason for the worrisome erosion of Obama’s political standing in recent weeks. The president has placed his faith in, and mostly subcontracted his policymaking to, an institution and a leader that are suffering from a profound confidence deficit. Washington is buzzing about a new Politico poll out Tuesday that shows Obama’s trust numbers slipping significantly over the last three months–from 66% to 54%. But the most troubling finding in that poll for Democrats is about Pelosi: only 24% of Americans say they trust the speaker. That’s 11 points lower than for Sarah Palin, who most Democrats contemptuously dismiss as a national joke.

I don’t know how the party can look at those numbers, or, more broadly, at Pelosi’s performance over the last six months, and not ask whether the most critical and immediate change we should be seeking in Washington now concerns the speaker’s chair. Indeed, is there any reason to believe that Pelosi, who is as scarred as any one in Congress by the partisan warfare of the Clinton-Bush era, can lead any differently for the rest of Obama’s term? That she can build the center-out coalitions Obama will need on the Hill to not just remake one-sixth of our economy (i.e., our health care system) but also to reform our bankrupting entitlement programs?

I understand that Democrats are highly reluctant to criticize (and thus alienate) their leaders. That’s especially true of Pelosi, who has given a lot to the party, stands out as a historic figure and more important, is known for raining down pain on dissidents. (Just ask Jane Harman and John Dingell, two powerful lawmakers who Pelosi bounced from their committee chairmanships, about the speaker’s sharp elbows). But much as she has been a loyal soldier and potent enforcer, Pelosi has been by any objective measure a failed manager for this president, who promised a new way of doing business. The House has been driving the legislative agenda in Congress, and Pelosi has shown none of her Senate counterpart Harry Reid’s bipartisan interests or instincts (modest and often enforced by Senate rules as they may be).

In fact, one could argue the speaker’s main accomplishment has been to galvanize and revitalize what was a moribund Republican opposition, which is now rapidly gaining strength relative to both Obama and the Democrats in Congress. Neither party fared well in the Politico trust poll, but Democrats dropped 10 points (42-52), while Republicans dropped four points (36-57). More telling, a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found the approval rating for congressional Republicans has increased six points since April, to 36% (compared with 47% for Democrats), while picking up five points versus Obama on the deficit and seven on health care.

Now, Pelosi’s defenders will point to the stimulus bill as a major success, and in a narrow sense they are right. Enacting $787 billion in new spending that fast was a breathtaking feat. But where it mattered most, the bill she and her team crafted was a major failure. The partisan way it was passed set a terrible tone for a new administration that seemed intent on fostering more collaboration. The misleading way the plan was sold as a jobs bill, when so much of it was focused on paying off Democratic constituencies, has undercut Obama’s claim on reform-minded independent voters. And worst of all, all that money has had nothing close to the impact the American people were promised.

Most national Democrats will view this kind of talk as beyond traitorous–they would say it’s totally unrealistic. First, it’s just not the party’s style to do coups. Second, Pelosi is widely viewed as one of the most powerful modern-era speakers, and because she is so proficient at the care and feeding of her caucus, it’s highly unlikely they would abandon her merely over a six-month rough patch. And third, there is no obvious successor with Emanuel gone. For all those reasons, and because Obama is himself disinclined to confrontation, no one can imagine the president making the kind of power play that Tom Delay and Dick Armey tried to pull off in ousting Newt Gingrich in 1997.

The irony in all this is that Pelosi is classic paper tiger and could easily be removed without causing an uprising within the party. Forget about her Cheney-like poll numbers. Just ask average Democrats outside the Beltway and the blogosphere about Pelosi, and it’s clear she has no dedicated constituency (the way Gingrich at least did as the engineer of a mini-revolution). Yes, some Washington women’s groups would grouse if the first female speaker were pushed out. But she does not command anywhere near the allegiance Hillary Clinton does, and there’s nothing to indicate dumping Pelosi would generate the kind of backlash that the slights Hillary suffered in 2008 did.

In the end, though, that really doesn’t count for much. Democratic politics are still driven in large part by what a small group of activists think–the folks who give lots of money to the party, join MoveOn.org and regularly read the liberal blogs. Those partisans are clearly inclined to cut Pelosi considerable slack because she is good on their issues and bad news for the GOP. Effectiveness is a secondary consideration–especially when it’s much easier to blame those obstructionist Republicans. And as long as that warped equilibrium remains steady, Pelosi’s job, as well as the rest of the party’s congressional leadership, will remain secure.

My bet now is that Obama will, out of necessity, seize control of the policy-generating process on big-ticket items, which is his only hope of mitigating Pelosi’s weaknesses. The marginalized speaker will ride out the next 18 months and pray the economy turns around soon enough, and substantially enough, to minimize the Democrats’ losses in the 2010 midterms. If the lost seats stay within the historical norms, Pelosi will hold on for at least another two years. If not, and the Democrats come close to losing their majority, then her job will be at serious risk–Obama might be emboldened to push Pelosi out. (The GOP’s dismal midterm results in 1998 is ultimately what cost Gingrich his gavel.)

After the 2008 rout, it’s hard to imagine another changeover in the very next election. But then again, who would have predicted that Bill Clinton’s party would pick up seats after he had a sexual relationship with an intern and lied to the country about it for several months? Here is what we do know. Overreaching can be a very dangerous thing in our politics–especially when the head of your party got elected running against it. And sometimes the only solution to overreaching is, well, overthrowing.

Dan Gerstein, a political communications consultant and commentator based in New York, is the founder and president of Gotham Ghostwriters. He formerly served as communications director to Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., and as a senior adviser on his vice presidential and presidential campaigns. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

Posted by: Patrick | July 31, 2009

InternetNews.com: 1-800-Flowers.com Blooms on Facebook

By Michelle Megna
July 29, 2009

Will e-commerce on Facebook finally blossom? That may depend on how 1-800-Flowers.com fares as the e-tailer today became one of the first to open up a fully integrated storefront on its Facebook page.

By doing so, Facebook users can browse and purchase from 1-800-Flowers.com without leaving the social networking site or being redirected to the company’s Web site.

The news comes at a time when recession-strapped brands are increasingly looking to ssocial media as a more affordable marketing alternative compared to traditional online and offline advertising.

And while many large companies, including Pizza Hut, Target, Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks, have had success using Facebook for interactive promotions, none have truly capitalized on the site’s 250 million-member community by conducting integrated online purchase transactions.

The move is also significant because many e-tailers, both large and small, use widgets and Facebook apps that show inventory or create wish lists, but redirect shoppers to their e-stores. Some of these apps have a limited amount of inventory available for closed-loop purchases, but to date, no one in the Fortune 500 is grabbing headlines for baking an e-commerce storefront into their company’s Facebook page. “We’re seeing brands do more and more interesting things with their Facebook Pages,” Facebook said in an e-mail sent to InternetNews.com. “1-800-Flowers’ online store is a great example of a business trying new things. Facebook Pages can be a unique and interactive way for businesses to communicate and engage with consumers.”

The flower vendor has a long-earned reputation as an e-commerce pioneer. The Carle Place, N.Y.-based company, known for the unprecedented move of using 1-800 in its name, went online in 1992. It became the first merchant on AOL three years later.

In 2007, 1-800-Flowers.com launched a Facebook app that worked with its loyalty program, Fresh Rewards, by offering users activities they could participate in to earn special discounts and benefits, which was soon followed by a fan page, that currently has 1,748 fans.

Facebook for friends and family, but buyers?

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if 1-800-Flowers.com can entice Facebook members to buy while socializing at the site. Historically, research has shown that social media site users want to connect with friends and family — not buy products.

The company looked to Alvenda, an e-commerce-enabled advertising network and application developer, to build the Facebook storefront, and naturally, it finds promise in the potential of e-commerce at social media sites.

“We believe the majority of future online sales will happen ‘offsite.’ Alvenda enables customers to shop with brands wherever they happen to be; whether they’re on YouTube, a favorite blogger Web site, or now Facebook,” Wade Gerten, Alvenda CEO, said in a statement.

MySpace is a big gaming platform but it hopes to be more of one

July 24, 2009 | Eric Eldon

mobsters11Many of MySpace’s nearly 125 million monthly active users are already playing social games made by companies like Playdom and Zynga. But the News Corp.-owned social network is hoping for more, chief digital officer Jonathan Miller said today at the Fortune Brainstorm: Tech conference happening in Pasadena, Calif.

“MySpace is and will be more in the future a gaming platform, a space for people to meet and play games,” he said, adding that the site is looking for acquisitions to help it become more developer-friendly. He sees “opportunities to make MySpace’s gaming platform better geared to videogame suppliers who then will want to launch their products on the site and employ its user data to better develop games,” according to Reuters.

It’s not clear what that means. PaidContent speculates that perhaps MySpace would want to buy Yahoo’s games site and pair it with the “MySpace Games” flash games sub-site operated by Oberon Media. That’s interesting — although I would expect MySpace to try to improve platform services for third parties rather than try to build everything itself. While Facebook, with more than 250 million monthly active users, has a larger user base as well as a more developed platform, MySpace has attracted sizable developer attention. Playdom has been making millions in revenue per quarter, mostly from MySpace games like mafia game Mobsters — or so I heard a few months ago. PaidContent also points out some potential ways of bringing in developers — and making money — including “player achievement-tracking across different devices and networks, an integrated virtual payments system, or some form of unique ad-targeting.”

myspaceprofileIndeed, MySpace has been meaning to roll out some sort of virtual currency for months, based on various reports I’ve heard over the last year. A site-wide currency could allow users to enter their credit card information once, allowing developers to run that currency within games so users could do things like make purchases with the click of a button. MySpace could then take a small cut of every transaction. Smaller social networking rival Hi5 has already started letting third parties integrate its “Coins” currency, and Facebook has started rolling out a test of its “credits” for third parties. At Myspace, meanwhile, restructuring seems to have slowed down the virtual currency product launch. It got a bunch of new managers this past spring, led by chief executive Owen Van Natta, and their first order of business was making massive cuts to the staff. But I still expect the virtual currency to appear eventually.

In terms of advertising in games, perhaps MySpace should go back and look at the simple, embeddable widgets that have been on the site long before it introduced a developer platform. Platform applications are able to tap into MySpace data like friend lists, and features like notifications so developers can notify people about their friends’ activity within games. Widgets started out as simple slideshows from companies like Slide and RockYou that didn’t include many of these social features, but they’re on tens of millions of user profiles and are often the most engaging feature on the page. However, MySpace has not allowed widget developers to run their own ads because they might distract users from the ads the site is running separately. If the social network can figure out an ad network for third parties where it could get a revenue cut, this might end up generating more revenue as well and incentivize developers to spend more time building for MySpace instead of other platforms.

Games are a good way to get people coming back to a site each day. MySpace has been losing millions of users in the last couple of years. When Van Natta came on board in a culmination of his desire to be CEO of a big web company, I wondered: Now what? Well, this is one move, at least, that could get users returning for more. Up next: The execution part.

August 2, 2009 | Kim-Mai Cutler

picture-21Let the monetization begin: SocialCord has created a platform for musicians, writers and brands to build a “freemium” model delivered over Twitter or mobile phones. For example, bands wrestling with how to make a living from their music can send links to songs or videos of live performances to their most devoted fans first for a monthly charge. (”Freemium” is the business model of giving away basics for free while charging for special or advanced content.)

Users sign up by going to a special page where they enter in their phone number. SocialCord texts them a PIN, which they enter into the site and the charges appear on their monthly phone bill. No credit card numbers are necessary. Founder David Dundas says he spent nine months securing agreements with all four of the U.S.’s major mobile carriers to support payments via SocialCord without prompting users for credit card information. He developed the idea and relationships with mobile operators after serving as business development manager for Thumbplay, a ringtone and games provider that raised $6 million in March.

The carrier takes 45 percent of the user’s payment, while SocialCord splits the remainder 55 to 45 percent with the content provider. Dundas said he’ll focus initially on three markets: Facebook applications that want to charge for virtual goods or cash, musicians and special content providers (like a sommelier who has daily wine tips or a stock analyst giving minute-by-minute market analysis).

The service could be very useful if content providers can figure out exactly what people will pay for over Twitter — a problem content creators from one-man bands to institutions like The New York Times are grappling with. Dundas is betting that extraordinarily loyal music fans might opt-in or that SocialCord will work in other niche communities.

The company has two full-time employees and is looking for an angel round of funding. SocialCord’s closest competitors are TipJoy, a Y Combinator-backed company, SuperChirp, which supports payments through PayPal and Twitter direct messaging, and TwitPub. TwitPub, however, requires the content provider to have a protected account and then sells access to the entire Twitter stream. SocialCord, in contrast, sends the premium content as direct messages to the user.

Here is an example of what a SocialCord sign-up page would look like:

picture-22

Posted by: Patrick | August 9, 2009

WSJ: ‘You Are Terrifying Us’

The Wall Street Journal

AUGUST 7, 2009, 2:51 P.M. ET

‘You Are Terrifying Us’

Voters send a message to Washington, and get an ugly response.

  • By PEGGY NOONAN

Columnist's name

We have entered uncharted territory in the fight over national health care. There’s a new tone in the debate, and it’s ugly. At the moment the Democrats are looking like something they haven’t looked like in years, and that is: desperate.

They must know at this point they should not have pushed a national health-care plan. A Democratic operative the other day called it “Hillary’s revenge.” When Mrs. Clinton started losing to Barack Obama in the primaries 18 months ago, she began to give new and sharper emphasis to her health-care plan. Mr. Obama responded by talking about his health-care vision. He won. Now he would push what he had been forced to highlight: Health care would be a priority initiative. The net result is falling support for his leadership on the issue, falling personal polls, and the angry town-hall meetings that have electrified YouTube.

In his first five months in office, Mr. Obama had racked up big wins—the stimulus, children’s health insurance, House approval of cap-and-trade. But he stayed too long at the hot table. All the Democrats in Washington did. They overinterpreted the meaning of the 2008 election, and didn’t fully take into account how the great recession changed the national mood and atmosphere.

And so the shock on the faces of Congressmen who’ve faced the grillings back home. And really, their shock is the first thing you see in the videos. They had no idea how people were feeling. Their 2008 win left them thinking an election that had been shaped by anti-Bush, anti-Republican, and pro-change feeling was really a mandate without context; they thought that in the middle of a historic recession featuring horrific deficits, they could assume support for the invention of a huge new entitlement carrying huge new costs.

The passions of the protesters, on the other hand, are not a surprise. They hired a man to represent them in Washington. They give him a big office, a huge staff and the power to tell people what to do. They give him a car and a driver, sometimes a security detail, and a special pin showing he’s a congressman. And all they ask in return is that he see to their interests and not terrify them too much. Really, that’s all people ask. Expectations are very low. What the protesters are saying is, “You are terrifying us.”

What has been most unsettling is not the congressmen’s surprise but a hard new tone that emerged this week. The leftosphere and the liberal commentariat charged that the town hall meetings weren’t authentic, the crowds were ginned up by insurance companies, lobbyists and the Republican National Committee. But you can’t get people to leave their homes and go to a meeting with a congressman (of all people) unless they are engaged to the point of passion. And what tends to agitate people most is the idea of loss—loss of money hard earned, loss of autonomy, loss of the few things that work in a great sweeping away of those that don’t.

People are not automatons. They show up only if they care.

What the town-hall meetings represent is a feeling of rebellion, an uprising against change they do not believe in. And the Democratic response has been stunningly crude and aggressive. It has been to attack. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the United States House of Representatives, accused the people at the meetings of “carrying swastikas and symbols like that.” (Apparently one protester held a hand-lettered sign with a “no” slash over a swastika.) But they are not Nazis, they’re Americans. Some of them looked like they’d actually spent some time fighting Nazis.

Then came the Democratic Party charge that the people at the meetings were suspiciously well-dressed, in jackets and ties from Brooks Brothers. They must be Republican rent-a-mobs. Sen. Barbara Boxer said on MSNBC’s “Hardball” that people are “storming these town hall meetings,” that they were “well dressed,” that “this is all organized,” “all planned,” to “hurt our president.” Here she was projecting. For normal people, it’s not all about Barack Obama.

Associated PressOj_noonan

The Democratic National Committee chimed in with an incendiary Web video whose script reads, “The right wing extremist Republican base is back.” DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse issued a statement that said the Republicans “are inciting angry mobs of . . . right wing extremists” who are “not reflective of where the American people are.”

But most damagingly to political civility, and even our political tradition, was the new White House email address to which citizens are asked to report instances of “disinformation” in the health-care debate: If you receive an email or see something on the Web about health-care reform that seems “fishy,” you can send it to flag@whitehouse.gov. The White House said it was merely trying to fight “intentionally misleading” information.

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas on Wednesday wrote to the president saying he feared that citizens’ engagement could be “chilled” by the effort. He’s right, it could. He also accused the White House of compiling an “enemies list.” If so, they’re being awfully public about it, but as Byron York at the Washington Examiner pointed, the emails collected could become a “dissident database.”

All of this is unnecessarily and unhelpfully divisive and provocative. They are mocking and menacing concerned citizens. This only makes a hot situation hotter. Is this what the president wants? It couldn’t be. But then in an odd way he sometimes seems not to have fully absorbed the awesome stature of his office. You really, if you’re president, can’t call an individual American stupid, if for no other reason than that you’re too big. You cannot allow your allies to call people protesting a health-care plan “extremists” and “right wing,” or bought, or Nazi-like, either. They’re citizens. They’re concerned. They deserve respect.

The Democrats should not be attacking, they should be attempting to persuade, to argue for their case. After all, they have the big mic. Which is what the presidency is, the big mic.

And frankly they ought to think about backing off. The president should call in his troops and his Congress and announce a rethinking. There are too many different bills, they’re all a thousand pages long, no one has time to read them, no one knows what’s going to be in the final one, the public is agitated, the nation’s in crisis, the timing is wrong, we’ll turn to it again—but not now. We’ll take a little longer, ponder every aspect, and make clear every complication.

You know what would happen if he did this? His numbers would go up. Even Congress’s would. Because they’d look responsive, deliberative and even wise. Discretion is the better part of valor.

Absent that, and let’s assume that won’t happen, the health-care protesters have to make sure they don’t get too hot, or get out of hand. They haven’t so far, they’ve been burly and full of debate, with plenty of booing. This is democracy’s great barbaric yawp. But every day the meetings seem just a little angrier, and people who are afraid—who have been made afraid, and left to be afraid—can get swept up. As this column is written, there comes word that John Sweeney of the AFL-CIO has announced he’ll be sending in union members to the meetings to counter health care’s critics.

Somehow that doesn’t sound like a peace initiative.

It’s going to be a long August, isn’t it? Let’s hope the uncharted territory we’re in doesn’t turn dark.

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Posted by: Patrick | August 11, 2009

Forbes.com: Gov 2.0 The Promise of Innovation

Forbes.com

O’Reilly Insights
Gov 2.0: The Promise Of Innovation
Tim O’Reilly, 08.10.09, 6:00 PM ET

Over the past 15 years, the World Wide Web has created remarkable new business models reshaping our economy. As the Web has undermined old media and software companies, it has demonstrated the enormous power of a new model, often referred to as Web 2.0.

Now, a new generation has come of age with the Web and is committed to using its lessons of creativity and collaboration to address challenges facing our country and the world. The Facebook Causes application has more than 60 million registered users who are leveraging the power of social networks to raise money for charity. Meetup.com helps interest groups formed on the Web get together in person–and a remarkable number of groups do so for civic purposes. A quick search turns up nearly 20,000 meetups devoted to cleaning up local parks, streets and neighborhoods. Twitter and YouTube have played major roles in helping organize political protests in Iran’s recent election. Everyblock and Stumblesafely take government crime statistics and turn them into public safety applications for the Web or iPhone. The list goes on.

Meanwhile, with the proliferation of issues and not enough resources to address them all, many government leaders recognize the opportunities inherent in harnessing a highly motivated and diverse population not just to help them get elected, but to help them do a better job. By analogy, many are calling this movement “Government 2.0.”

President Obama exhorted us to rise to the challenge: “We must use all available technologies and methods to open up the federal government, creating a new level of transparency to change the way business is conducted in Washington, and giving Americans the chance to participate in government deliberations and decision-making in ways that were not possible only a few years ago.”

There is a new compact on the horizon: Government maintains information on a variety of issues, and that information should rightly be considered a national asset. Citizens are connected like never before and have the skill sets and passion to solve problems affecting them locally as well as nationally. Government information and services can be provided to citizens where and when they need it. Citizens are empowered to spark the innovation that will result in an improved approach to governance.

This is a radical departure from the old model of government, which Donald Kettl so aptly named “vending machine government.” We pay our taxes; we get back services. And when we don’t get what we expect, our “participation” is limited to protest–essentially, shaking the vending machine.

In the vending-machine model, the full menu of available services is determined beforehand. A small number of vendors have the ability to get their products into the machine, and as a result, the choices are limited, and the prices are high.

Yet there is an alternate model, which is much closer to the kind of government envisioned by our nation’s founders, a model in which, as Thomas Jefferson wrote in a letter to Joseph Cabel, “every man … feels that he is a participator in the government of affairs, not merely at an election one day in the year, but every day.” In this model, government is a convener and an enabler–ultimately, it is a vehicle for coordinating the collective action of citizens.

So far, you may hear echoes of the dialog between liberals and conservatives that has so dominated political discourse in recent decades. But big government versus small government is in many ways beside the point. To frame the debate in terms familiar to technologists, the question is whether government is successful as a platform.

If you look at the history of the computer industry, the most successful companies are those that build frameworks that enable a whole ecosystem of participation from other companies large and small. The personal computer was such a platform. So was the World Wide Web. But this platform dynamic can be seen most vividly in the recent success of the Apple iPhone. Where other phones have a limited menu of applications developed by the phone provider and a few carefully chosen partners, Apple built a framework that allowed virtually anyone to build applications for the phone, leading to an explosion of creativity, with more than 50,000 applications appearing for the phone in less than a year, and more than 3,000 new ones now appearing every week.

This is the right way to frame the question of “Government 2.0.” How does government itself become an open platform that allows people inside and outside government to innovate? How do you design a system in which all of the outcomes aren’t specified beforehand, but instead evolve through interactions between the technology provider and its user community?

The Obama administration’s technology team has taken the first steps toward rethinking government as a platform provider. One of the first acts by Vivek Kundra, the national CTO, was to create data.gov, a catalog of all the federal government’s Web services. (Web services, as opposed to static government Web sites, provide raw government data, allowing third parties to build alternate services and interfaces to government programs.) The Sunlight Foundation’s Apps for America Contest (modeled on the successful Apps for Democracy program that Kundra ran while CIO of Washington, D.C.) is seeking to kick off the virtuous circle of citizen innovation using these data services.

Rather than licensing government data to a few select “value added” providers, who then license the data downstream, the federal government (and many state and local governments) are beginning to provide an open platform that enables anyone with a good idea to build innovative services that connect government to citizens, give citizens visibility into the actions of government and even allow citizens to participate directly in policy-making.

That’s Government 2.0: technology helping build the kind of government the nation’s founders intended: of, for and by the people.

Tim O’Reilly is the founder and CEO of O’Reilly Media, a premier computer book publisher. O’Reilly Media also hosts conferences on technology topics. Tim is chairing the upcoming Gov 2.0 Summit with Richard O’Neill, founder and president of The Highlands Group. Tim’s blog, the O’Reilly Radar, “watches the alpha geeks” and serves as a platform for advocacy about issues of importance to the technical community. He can also be found as @timoreilly on Twitter.

Posted by: Patrick | August 25, 2009

WSJ.com: Obama’s Summer of Discontent

Frankly, not too unlike Bill Clinton, the best thing that could happen to President Obama would be for a 1994 – like political chastening to drive him back to more centrist and moderate policy goals.  The country overall is still a center-right nation politically in spite of the landslide election occurrence (aberration) of 2008.  Sadder yet is the fact that the GOP is a poor proxy for a center-right political body for leadership and governance.  More about that later…

The Wall Street Journal

AUGUST 25, 2009, 9:32 A.M. ET

The politics of charisma is so Third World. Americans were never going to buy into it for long.

By FOUAD AJAMI

So we are to have a French health-care system without a French tradition of political protest. It is odd that American liberalism, in a veritable state of insurrection during the Bush presidency, now seeks political quiescence. These “townhallers” who have come forth to challenge ObamaCare have been labeled “evil-mongers” (Harry Reid), “un-American” (Nancy Pelosi), agitators and rowdies and worse.

A political class, and a media elite, that glamorized the protest against the Iraq war, that branded the Bush presidency as a reign of usurpation, now wishes to be done with the tumult of political debate. President Barack Obama himself, the community organizer par excellence, is full of lament that the “loudest voices” are running away with the national debate. Liberalism in righteous opposition, liberalism in power: The rules have changed.

It was true to script, and to necessity, that Mr. Obama would try to push through his sweeping program—the change in the health-care system, a huge budget deficit, the stimulus package, the takeover of the automotive industry—in record time. He and his handlers must have feared that the spell would soon be broken, that the coalition that carried Mr. Obama to power was destined to come apart, that a country anxious and frightened in the fall of 2008 could recover its poise and self-confidence. Historically, this republic, unlike the Old World and the command economies of the Third World, had trusted the society rather than the state. In a perilous moment, that balance had shifted, and Mr. Obama was the beneficiary of that shift.

So our new president wanted a fundamental overhaul of the health-care system—17% of our GDP—without a serious debate, and without “loud voices.” It is akin to government by emergency decrees. How dare those townhallers (the voters) heckle Arlen Specter! Americans eager to rein in this runaway populism were now guilty of lèse-majesté by talking back to the political class.

We were led to this summer of discontent by the very nature of the coalition that brought Mr. Obama, and the political class around him, to power, and by the circumstances of his victory. The man was elected amid economic distress. Faith in the country’s institutions, perhaps in the free-enterprise system itself, had given way. Mr. Obama had ridden that distress. His politics of charisma was reminiscent of the Third World. A leader steps forth, better yet someone with no discernible trail, someone hard to pin down to a specific political program, and the crowd could read into him what it wished, what it needed.

The leader would be different things to different people. The Obama coalition was the coming together of disparate groups: the white professional liberals seeking absolution for the country in the election of an African-American man, the opponents of the Iraq war who grew more strident as the project in Iraq was taking root, the African-American community that had been invested in the Clintons and then came around out of an understandable pride in one of its own.

Getty Images

The last segment of the electorate to flock to the Obama banners were the blue-collar workers who delivered him Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana. He was not their man. They fully knew that he didn’t share their culture. They were, by his portrait, clinging to their guns and religion, but the promise of economic help, and of protectionism, carried the day with them.

The Obama devotees were the victims of their own belief in political magic. The devotees could not make up their minds. In a newly minted U.S. senator from Illinois, they saw the embodiment of Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. Like Lincoln, Mr. Obama was tall and thin and from Illinois, and the historic campaign was launched out of Springfield. The oath of office was taken on the Lincoln Bible. Like FDR, he had a huge economic challenge, and he better get it done, repair and streamline the economy in his “first hundred days.” Like JFK, he was young and stylish, with a young family.

All this hero-worship before Mr. Obama met his first test of leadership. In reality, he was who he was, a Chicago politician who had done well by his opposition to the Iraq war. He had run a skillful campaign, and had met a Clinton machine that had run out of tricks and a McCain campaign that never understood the nature of the contest of 2008.

He was no FDR, and besides the history of the depression—the real history—bears little resemblance to the received narrative of the nation instantly rescued, in the course of 100 days or 200 days, by an interventionist state. The economic distress had been so deep and relentless that FDR began his second term, in 1937, with the economy still in the grip of recession.

Nor was JFK about style. He had known military service and combat, and familial loss; he had run in 1960 as a hawk committed to the nation’s victory in the Cold War. He and his rival, Richard Nixon, shared a fundamental outlook on American power and its burdens.

Now that realism about Mr. Obama has begun to sink in, these iconic figures of history had best be left alone. They can’t rescue the Obama presidency. Their magic can’t be his. Mr. Obama isn’t Lincoln with a BlackBerry. Those great personages are made by history, in the course of history, and not by the spinners or the smitten talking heads.

In one of the revealing moments of the presidential campaign, Mr. Obama rightly observed that the Reagan presidency was a transformational presidency in a way Clinton’s wasn’t. And by that Reagan precedent, that Reagan standard, the faults of the Obama presidency are laid bare. Ronald Reagan, it should be recalled, had been swept into office by a wave of dissatisfaction with Jimmy Carter and his failures. At the core of the Reagan mission was the recovery of the nation’s esteem and self-regard. Reagan was an optimist. He was Hollywood glamour to be sure, but he was also Peoria, Ill. His faith in the country was boundless, and when he said it was “morning in America” he meant it; he believed in America’s miracle and had seen it in his own life, in his rise from a child of the Depression to the summit of political power.

The failure of the Carter years was, in Reagan’s view, the failure of the man at the helm and the policies he had pursued at home and abroad. At no time had Ronald Reagan believed that the American covenant had failed, that America should apologize for itself in the world beyond its shores. There was no narcissism in Reagan. It was stirring that the man who headed into the sunset of his life would bid his country farewell by reminding it that its best days were yet to come.

In contrast, there is joylessness in Mr. Obama. He is a scold, the “Yes we can!” mantra is shallow, and at any rate, it is about the coming to power of a man, and a political class, invested in its own sense of smarts and wisdom, and its right to alter the social contract of the land. In this view, the country had lost its way and the new leader and the political class arrayed around him will bring it back to the right path.

Thus the moment of crisis would become an opportunity to push through a political economy of redistribution and a foreign policy of American penance. The independent voters were the first to break ranks. They hadn’t underwritten this fundamental change in the American polity when they cast their votes for Mr. Obama.

American democracy has never been democracy by plebiscite, a process by which a leader is anointed, then the populace steps out of the way, and the anointed one puts his political program in place. In the American tradition, the “mandate of heaven” is gained and lost every day and people talk back to their leaders. They are not held in thrall by them. The leaders are not infallible or a breed apart. That way is the Third World way, the way it plays out in Arab and Latin American politics.

Those protesters in those town-hall meetings have served notice that Mr. Obama’s charismatic moment has passed. Once again, the belief in that American exception that set this nation apart from other lands is re-emerging. Health care is the tip of the iceberg. Beneath it is an unease with the way the verdict of the 2008 election was read by those who prevailed. It shall be seen whether the man swept into office in the moment of national panic will adjust to the nation’s recovery of its self-confidence.

Mr. Ajami teaches at the School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University. He is also an adjunct fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

Posted by: Patrick | September 10, 2009

Fortune/CNN: Watch out, LinkedIn… Facebook is gaining on you

Have you all found this to be true?? In my experience, I still get far more professional utility out of LinkedIn than I do Facebook…

September 10, 2009 7:00 AM

Social networking site elbows in on LinkedIn’s job-finding franchise.

When it comes to finding a new job, they say it’s all about who you know. With the rise of online social networks that has never been truer.

Today, 42% of adults in the U.S. with Internet access maintain a profile on a social networking site, up from 20% in 2007, according to Forrester Research. And in an economy where almost one-tenth of the population is unemployed, more job-seekers are likely to look for opportunities online.

Meanwhile existing members of social networks may take the time to fill in more of their job history in their profiles.

Recruiters have been scouring professionally-oriented social network LinkedIn for qualified candidates for years now. More than 40% of Fortune 100 companies pay to use the site to find talent among its 46 million members.

But social networks are still evolving as places to hire and be hired, and Facebook, with its 250 million members, is gaining ground.

Unlike its more career-focused competitor, Facebook offers members profiles that tend to reflect their whole life. In the past that deterred many who were concerned an incriminating photo or wall post might be discovered by a potential new boss.

Professional and personal lines blurring

That fear is going away as people become more comfortable sharing their lives online, sometimes even blending their personal and professional personas. Some users take advantage of Facebook’s privacy settings to edit the information they present to professional contacts.

More importantly, Facebook is gaining credibility as a tool for recruiters and human resources professionals, the very folks who’ve been avid fans of LinkedIn. For one thing, Facebook seems to cast a wider net and provide recruiters with more references – and more outlets to spread the news about a job opening. Facebook users have an average of 120 friends. While LinkedIn won’t release this statistic for its members, recruiters say the average number of connections likely is smaller because of the site’s narrower scope.

The types of relationships and contacts found in a personal network versus a professional one are also assumed to be more authentic and less transactional, and therefore more desirable to marketers. And while Facebook members now span all ages and demographics, the average age of its users is 31, compared to 41-years-old for LinkedIn.

These are aspects that attracted technology company EMC (EMC) to Facebook. “Many college grads aren’t on LinkedIn,” says Polly Pearson, VP of employment brand and strategy engagement at EMC. “We’re going where target market is—that’s why we’re on Facebook.”

Reaching recent college grads

As a business-to-business lacking strong consumer awareness, EMC relies on its Facebook page to build its reputation as a great place to work. It’s still too early to judge the success of EMC’s foray into social networking—the page only has 745 fans—but Pearson says the company has made hires through social networks and is more focused on starting a dialogue with potential employees.

“We have to have a huge pipeline,” explains Pearson. “A company can have a website all day long but there’s a lot more people hanging out on Facebook than on our website.”

As a technology company, EMC took a DIY approach to Facebook. But companies like the Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG), Harley Davidson (HOG) and Bally Fitness rely on CareerBuilder to develop a presence on social networks. The career site consults with 250 clients, helping them build Facebook community pages that incorporate job listings, blogs about applying for positions and discussions among candidates and employees.

“Companies are always initially afraid,” says CareerBuilder chief marketing officer Richard Castellini. “We’re trying to help them understand that by giving up control you’re still going to get benefits in terms of deeper and wider conversations.”

While active job seekers might visit the Facebook pages of companies they’re interested in, Facebook also enables companies to reach target candidates who might not be looking. This more recent advance is made possible by Facebook Connect, a feature that enables websites and applications to access information in a user’s profile (with their permission).

Two Silicon Valley start-ups are deploying the feature to help companies encourage their employees to refer friends for open positions. Internal referral candidates are the most appealing to human resources departments since they are less expensive to find and tend to be the best fit for a position, meaning less turnover.

San Francisco-based Jobvite manages the entire hiring process for its customers, which include Tivo (TIVO), Mattson (MTSN) and Mozilla. The firm, which announced an additional $8.25 million in funding yesterday from ATA Ventures and CMEA Capital on top of an initial $7.2 million investment from CMEA in 2007, operates a “software as a service,” or SAAS, platform. Clients simply subscribe the service on a monthly basis, rather than paying to have the software installed on their own servers.

The name Jobvite originally referred to a feature that enabled clients’ employees to use Outlook to generate invitations to apply for jobs at their company. But that required employees to sift through their contacts themselves, assuming they even used Outlook as their source for email addresses.

In February the company created an application that used Facebook Connect to allow employees to send job invitations via Facebook. The app will even search the profiles of the employee’s Facebook friends to see who might make a good match for the job. The invite can then also be forwarded on to friends outside the original employee’s network. (The invite feature is also available for LinkedIn.)

“We help companies scale how they hire people through networks,” says Jobvite CEO Dan Finnigan, who spent five years at Yahoo’s (YHOO) HotJobs unit prior to joining the start-up last year.

Appirio in San Mateo offers a similar invite feature as software-as-a-service, but only for customers of Salesforce.com (CRM). The firm, which is backed by Salesforce, Sequoia Capital and GGV Capital, offers applications that manage referrals in social networks, whether for hiring purposes or a marketing campaign. All the data is sent back to Salesforce for analysis and tracking.

If you’re fortunate enough to have a job right now, especially one you love, all of this may not seem especially relevant to you. But at some point in your career, you could simply be posting a status update when your next job comes looking for you.

Posted by: Patrick | September 13, 2009

VentureBeat: Steve Jobs is going after the game market

Steve Jobs is going after the game market

September 10, 2009 | Dean Takahashi

jobs-again1In an interview with the New York Times columnist David Pogue, Apple chief executive Steve Jobs emphasized that Apple was going after the video game market, particularly with its iPod Touch gadget.

That explains why there’s no camera in the iPod Touch — a topic of much debate today, as Apple introduced a video camera in the iPod Nano but not the iPod Touch. Our own Paul Boutin wondered about this.

Jobs said in the New York Times interview, “Originally, we weren’t exactly sure how to market the Touch. Was it an iPhone without the phone? Was it a pocket computer? What happened was, what customers told us was, they started to see it as a game machine,” he said. “We started to market it that way, and it just took off. And now what we really see is it’s the lowest-cost way to the App Store, and that’s the big draw. So what we were focused on is just reducing the price to $199. We don’t need to add new stuff. We need to get the price down where everyone can afford it.”

gallery-71During Apple’s press conference in San Francisco today, Apple senior vice president Phil Schiller (right) touted the huge presence of games on the App Store. There are 21,178 games on the iPhone and iPod Touch. By comparison, Sony has 607 PlayStation Portable games and Nintendo’s DS has 3,680.

“They don’t really stack up anymore,” Schiller said.

Schiller noted that the aging rival platforms don’t have multitouch screens, don’t have anything like the App Store, and their games are expensive compared to the iPhone/iPod Touch games, which range in price from free to $9.99. DS and PSP games are at least twice as expensive at $25 to $40.

There are more than 50 million iPhones and iPod Touches in the market. That is within spitting distance of the 51 million Sony PSPs sold, which explains why Sony is launching the PSP Go model — a new and improved handheld game system with flash memory instead of a proprietary drive. And though the Apple platform is only two years old, it is more than half way to Nintendo’s 100 million-plus installed base of DS handhelds, which have reached that number after almost six years on the market.

Users have downloaded more than 1.8 billion apps. If games have their fair share of those total downloads (and most believe they do), then more than 500 million games have been downloaded.

Even at $199 Apple’s camera-less iPod Touch is at a price disadvantage; the Sony PSP sells for $199 as well, while the Nintendo DSi sells for $169. Those prices are so close that gamers will have to think hard about what they will buy.

gallery-131As you can tell from all of the numbers in this story, Sony and Nintendo have something to worry about. The newest iPhone 3G S is an extremely capable 3-D graphics handheld and supports the OpenGL ES 2.0 graphics standard. Hubert Nguyen of Ubergizmo believes that the graphics in the new iPhone could display something that looks as good as Half-Life 2 — a stunning game on the PC from 2004. I’ve already noted how the graphics on id Software’s Doom Resurrection on the iPhone looked truly amazing.

The games that Apple showed off at its press event today were gorgeous, but the real OpenGL ES 2.0-compliant games are coming later this year. Travis Boatman (pictured) of Electronic Arts said EA’s Need for Speed Shift game will be fully OpenGL ES 2.0-compliant. And that means it’s going to look good. Other EA games on the Apple platform: Madden NFL 2010, Command & Conquer, and NBA Live.

Earlier this summer, I couldn’t find all that many iPhone games which I would consider to be next-generation iPhone titles. But after today, as you can see from our video interviews with Tapulous and Ubisoft, those games are on the way. Ubisoft thinks highly enough of the iPhone that it is launching its version of Assassin’s Creed II on Nov. 11, the same day it releases console versions. Gameloft, meanwhile, has 35 games on the App Store and more than 20 million downloads. It is releasing Nova, a sci-fi shooter with outstanding graphics, on the iPhone and iPod Touch.

Steve Jobs couldn’t have been more clear in his plan to move into games. Game developers have often wondered if Apple really cared much about games. Now it’s clear they do, as they have embraced these numbers.

Some of the game companies have said that Apple hasn’t made a highly profitable game platform on the iPhone/iPod Touch yet, at least not in the way that Facebook has with social games such as Zynga’s FarmVille. But Apple took a big step in the right direction today when it announced Genius for the App Store. Games can easily get lost if they’re not in the top 100 ranks. With the new Genius feature, Apple analyzes your library of apps and recommends similar apps that it think you might like. That feature could really help spread more games, said Bart Decrem, chief executive of Tapulous, whose Tap Tap Revenge has been downloaded more than 10 million times. One by one, Apple has been removing all of the foibles and flaws in its game platform.

It’s time for Sony and Nintendo to deal with this threat.

Posted by: Patrick | September 14, 2009

ReasonOnline: The Republican Health Care Failure

Reason Magazine

Why the GOP should save a share of blame for itself

Steve Chapman | September 14, 2009

Republicans fault President Obama for plans that would greatly expand federal outlays on health care, enlarge the federal role in the provision of medicine, doom private insurance, and wrestle Aunt Sally into the grave. They have some valid points. But while they’re heaping blame on Obama, they need to save a share for someone else: themselves.

His GOP critics in Congress, after all, have proposals to help the uninsured and curb health care costs. During his speech to Congress Wednesday, they waved their own bill at him. But for four years under President Bush, we had not only a Republican president but also a Republican Congress.

And what happened? Nothing. Republicans left health care reform to wait until the Democrats regained power, and now the Democrats have.

One reason the president has a good chance of getting ambitious legislation passed this year is that so many health care failures have gone unaddressed for so long. Obama and his allies can justify their program partly because the GOP has been so slow and tepid in offering alternatives. If the choice is between the quite imperfect Democratic plan and nothing, the public may prefer the Democratic plan.

It didn’t have to be this way. Republicans actually have some plausible ideas for improving the health care system. Let small businesses band together to buy insurance? Sure. Medical malpractice reform? Bound to help. Giving federal subsidies to help low-income individuals buy coverage? Go for it.

But for Republicans to propose all these measures brings to mind my friend who, new to Chicago, approached a city transit officer and said he’d like to get to State and Randolph streets. The frosty reply: “Buddy, who’s stopping you?” The only people who stopped Republicans from putting these ideas into practice were Republicans.

Former Reagan administration official Joseph Antos, a health care expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington, is among those who wonder why. “The sad thing is Republicans have been talking about these things for a long, long time,” he told me.

You may have forgotten that George W. Bush made a big deal of proposing tax credits of $7,500 per person or $15,000 per family to purchase medical coverage. He did that in 2007, only to be spurned by a Democratic Congress. Why did he wait till the seventh year of his term? He didn’t. He had offered the idea in 2004, only to encounter raging indifference in his Republican Congress.

The truth is Republicans just can’t muster an interest in the subject until a Democratic president comes along and offers legislation, which is their cue to wake up and scream in horror. They solemnly agree the existing system has a host of serious flaws. But they can never get excited about fixing them—only about making sure Democrats don’t get to.

“The passion you need to drive health care reform through Congress has not been present with Republicans,” laments Gail Wilensky, who headed the agency that runs Medicare under President George H.W. Bush and advised both George W. Bush and John McCain. “Even liability reform—they couldn’t get that through.”

Stuart Butler, a veteran health care expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, shares her frustration. When I asked him whether he blamed Republicans for not adopting sensible innovations when they held power, he replied, “Absolutely! They just don’t get it. They just feel that it’s not something they do, somehow. Republicans missed a tremendous opportunity.”

Actually, they did worse than miss an opportunity. They stimulated the public appetite for lavish federal spending on health care while catering to the illusion that it can be provided painlessly.

“They put in prescription drug coverage for Medicare,” Butler complains, “the biggest entitlement since the Johnson administration.” That program is projected to cost nearly $1 trillion in federal outlays over the next decade, most of which will be paid for by sending the bill to our children.

So now we have the GOP railing against Obama because he rejects their good ideas, busts the budget and enlarges the government’s role in our lives. No wonder they’re mad. Heck, if that’s what the American people wanted, they could have left Republicans in power.

COPYRIGHT 2009 CREATORS.COM


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Posted by: Patrick | September 18, 2009

UK Telegraph: Facebook reaches 300m users

Facebook has announced that it now has 300 million members worldwide and is making money

By Claudine Beaumont, Technology Editor
Published: 10:34AM BST 16 Sep 2009

Facebook revolt over personal information 'highlights need for privacy law'

Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, has announced that the social networking site now has more than 300 million users, and is cash-flow positive Photo: AP

Facebook now has more than 300 million users, making it the world’s most popular social networking site.

Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, announced the news in a blog post, and confirmed that the company was now cash-flow positive, generating revenue independently of third-party investment and funding.

“Facebook now serves 300 million people across the world. It’s a large number, but the way we think about this is that we’re just getting started on our goal of connecting everyone,” wrote Zuckerberg.

“We’re also succeeding at building Facebook in a sustainable way. Earlier this year, we said we expected to be cash flow positive sometime in 2010, and I’m pleased to share that we achieved this milestone last quarter. This is important to us because it sets Facebook up to be a strong, independent service for the long term.”

Facebook has enjoyed a rapid period of growth in the last two months, going from 250 million users in July to 300 million in September. The social networking site is still steadily adding users in major markets, such as Britain and the United States, and is also making inroads in to other territories. The recent launch of Facebook Lite, a stripped-down basic version of the site for users with slow internet connections, hopes to boost membership numbers in areas such as India and South America.

Facebook, which launched five years ago, has attracted more than $700 million of investment during that time. In 2007, Microsoft paid $240 million for a 1.6 per cent stake, valuing the social networking site at around $15 billion.

Zuckerberg pledged to continue investing in new systems and technologies to make Facebook perform faster and grow efficiently, and serve users in “increasingly deep and innovative ways”.

“We face a lot of fun and important challenges that require rethinking the current systems for enabling information flow across the web,” he wrote. “The site we all use every day is built by a relatively small group of the smartest engineers and entrepreneurs.

“In fact, the ratio of Facebook users to Facebook engineers makes it so that every engineer here is responsible for more than one million users. It’s hard to have an impact like that anywhere else.”

Industry analysts believe the milestone could mark a new push by Facebook to dominate the social-networking space, and rival sites, such as the microblogging service Twitter, could be caught up in its wake.

“If Facebook continues to open up its platform and adopt Twitter’s best features, it could spell trouble for the Twitterverse,” Ben Parr, associate editor at social media blog Mashable, told the BBC. “The world’s largest social network is on the warpath.”

Facebook: Twitter is “in the rear-view mirror”

September 18, 2009 | Matt Marshall and Kim-Mai Cutler

facebook-twitter

Twitter may still be the media darling of the day, getting all kinds of attention amid its huge user growth earlier this year. But Facebook, once considered Twitter’s most fierce competitor because it also wants to let users post bite-sized updates online about their thoughts, apparently no longer thinks of Twitter as a threat.

Facebook’s executives aren’t really thinking much about Twitter these days and see it as a niche site which is unlikely to grow — or at least, so they say.

“Twitter is a great company,” said Chamath Palihapitiya, Facebook’s vice president of growth, mobile and international expansion in an interview yesterday. “What they do is offer a way to publish information in a very consumable, public way.”

But, he continued, “they’re in the rear-view mirror.”

“To focus on a company with 40 million users that is not growing is not a good idea,” he said, citing Hitwise market share data as evidence of Twitter’s slowdown.

Palihapitiya said the last time he thought about the company was when Twitter board member Bijan Sabet looked him up in April and took him to coffee. (It’s amusing that Twitter co-founder Biz Stone used the exact same “rear-view mirror” language to describe the competition when we talked to him last month.)

Palihapitiya made the comments in a portion of the interview where we asked him about which company — Google or Twitter — is the bigger competitor to Facebook. Other Facebook executives, including Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg, have also suggested that Google is more of a competitor than Twitter.

The statements show Facebook has much larger ambitions. While Facebook has clearly spent a lot of time over the past year trying to upgrade its site to make it easier for users to post micro-blogging messages in a way that is almost identical to Twitter, that job of adapting is done, Palihapitiya said.

“Our task it to make sure we innovate and to make sure there’s no new upstart experience that could take users away,” he said. “Then No. 2 — we need to make sure that as more and more people use the product, we continue to keep it really elegant, simple and fast.”

Now Facebook is setting its sights on becoming a massive company on the order of Google, Microsoft or Yahoo.

“There are three people ahead of us,” Palihapitiya said, referring to those three companies. Of those, he said Google looms largest. That’s because Google now dominates the primary way most people start looking for information — with a search engine, which they use to then browse the web. Facebook, Palihapitiya says, envisions a future where people consume information in a very different way: You start at Facebook, and consume information largely upon recommendation from your friends or via other social filters.

When looked at that way, Facebook has so much more work to do that merely compete with status-update company like Twitter. “We have to be ubiquitous. We’re not building a place where Britney Spears says she is drinking a latte,” said Palihapitiya.

Facebook may have 300 million users, but Yahoo has 600 million and Google has 900 million, he pointed out. Indeed, Palihapitiya said that he and Zuckerberg have tossed around ideas like offering online health services, and a way to transfer financial information back and forth between users, he said.

Twitter went mainstream earlier this year, fueled by media reports about its ease of use, and by popular interest in viewing what famous movie stars and other people said in their Twitter streams. However, there’s still considerable disagreement about how entrenched the service has become for regular people.

Some reports show that many users don’t come back, or don’t actively participate — but merely gawk at what other people tweet. Twitter has a reported value of $1 billion — which is the price tag private investors put on the company when they agreed to invest. And there’s no doubt the company has its own ambition: It hopes to get to a billion users — which would make it much larger than Facebook.

Posted by: Patrick | September 28, 2009

Forbes.com – SAP’s Social Media Playbook

Forbes.com

Social Media
SAP’s Social Playbook
Taylor Buley, 09.25.09, 7:10 PM ETBURLINGAME, Calif. –

For a social network, SAP is an awfully big software company.

The German company, with $17 billion in revenues, is, in fact, still a major business software company, but it’s getting increasingly hard to tell. On Sept. 29, SAP is expected to announce a new partnership with social network LinkedIn that expands the software giant’s social media offerings.

Under the SAP banner, the company currently runs a handful of portal sites for developers, students and experts in business processes. Each network has its own community, but all share a common technology platform with blogs, forums and private messaging. Users earn points for sharing information and helping out other community members.

The LinkedIn partnership will likely mean that any kudos a user earns from SAP could be automatically advertised on that person’s LinkedIn profile. Since SAP software is used by a lot of businesses, that could mean better job opportunities for the company’s most proficient community members.

“We’re the social networking service that has the kind of targeting they need,” says Linkedin Chief Executive Reid Hoffman.

SAP is no interloper in the social media space. In July the company was named an engagement “maven” in a study from Altimeter Group. The company’s score placed it third in the technology industry, behind only Microsoft and Dell.

Earlier this year, SAP pulled from the Facebook playbook too. Its forums were generating tons of helpful software code, but it was unclear who owned it and whether SAP could use it without infringing on anyone’s copyrights.

SAP’s legal department drafted an update to the terms of service, but the result was a user license agreement that Mark Yolton, who oversees SAP’s various communities, thought was overly conservative. “We were imaging a Facebook scenario for SAP,” he says. “That’s where we stepped in.”

Yolton’s team helped talk the legal department off the ledge. A deal was struck that would ultimately placate both parties, and the result was lauded by community members like Anne Kathrine Petteroe.

The LinkedIn partnership probably won’t cause as many brows to furrow in SAP’s legal department, but it will likely continue to tap customer knowledge. The company says its community platforms provide real-time market feedback and drive customer loyalty, up-selling opportunities and innovation.

Posted by: Patrick | September 29, 2009

NYT: The Next Culture War


September 29, 2009
Op-Ed Columnist
New York Times
THE NEXT CULTURE WAR

Centuries ago, historians came up with a classic theory to explain the rise and decline of nations. The theory was that great nations start out tough-minded and energetic. Toughness and energy lead to wealth and power. Wealth and power lead to affluence and luxury. Affluence and luxury lead to decadence, corruption and decline.

“Human nature, in no form of it, could ever bear prosperity,” John Adams wrote in a letter to Thomas Jefferson, warning against the coming corruption of his country.

Yet despite its amazing wealth, the United States has generally remained immune to this cycle. American living standards surpassed European living standards as early as 1740. But in the U.S., affluence did not lead to indulgence and decline.

That’s because despite the country’s notorious materialism, there has always been a countervailing stream of sound economic values. The early settlers believed in Calvinist restraint. The pioneers volunteered for brutal hardship during their treks out west. Waves of immigrant parents worked hard and practiced self-denial so their children could succeed. Government was limited and did not protect people from the consequences of their actions, thus enforcing discipline and restraint.

When economic values did erode, the ruling establishment tried to restore balance. After the Gilded Age, Theodore Roosevelt (who ventured west to counteract the softness of his upbringing) led a crackdown on financial self-indulgence. The Protestant establishment had many failings, but it was not decadent. The old WASPs were notoriously cheap, sent their children to Spartan boarding schools, and insisted on financial sobriety.

Over the past few years, however, there clearly has been an erosion in the country’s financial values. This erosion has happened at a time when the country’s cultural monitors were busy with other things. They were off fighting a culture war about prayer in schools, “Piss Christ” and the theory of evolution. They were arguing about sex and the separation of church and state, oblivious to the large erosion of economic values happening under their feet.

Evidence of this shift in values is all around. Some of the signs are seemingly innocuous. States around the country began sponsoring lotteries: government-approved gambling that extracts its largest toll from the poor. Executives and hedge fund managers began bragging about compensation packages that would have been considered shameful a few decades before. Chain restaurants went into supersize mode, offering gigantic portions that would have been considered socially unacceptable to an earlier generation.

Other signs are bigger. As William Galston of the Brookings Institution has noted, in the three decades between 1950 and 1980, personal consumption was remarkably stable, amounting to about 62 percent of G.D.P. In the next three decades, it shot upward, reaching 70 percent of G.D.P. in 2008.

During this period, debt exploded. In 1960, Americans’ personal debt amounted to about 55 percent of national income. By 2007, Americans’ personal debt had surged to 133 percent of national income.

Over the past few months, those debt levels have begun to come down. But that doesn’t mean we’ve re-established standards of personal restraint. We’ve simply shifted from private debt to public debt. By 2019, federal debt will amount to an amazing 83 percent of G.D.P. (before counting the costs of health reform and everything else). By that year, interest payments alone on the federal debt will cost $803 billion.

These may seem like dry numbers, mostly of concern to budget wonks. But these numbers are the outward sign of a values shift. If there is to be a correction, it will require a moral and cultural movement.

Our current cultural politics are organized by the obsolete culture war, which has put secular liberals on one side and religious conservatives on the other. But the slide in economic morality afflicted Red and Blue America equally.

If there is to be a movement to restore economic values, it will have to cut across the current taxonomies. Its goal will be to make the U.S. again a producer economy, not a consumer economy. It will champion a return to financial self-restraint, large and small.

It will have to take on what you might call the lobbyist ethos — the righteous conviction held by everybody from AARP to the agribusinesses that their groups are entitled to every possible appropriation, regardless of the larger public cost. It will have to take on the self-indulgent popular demand for low taxes and high spending.

A crusade for economic self-restraint would have to rearrange the current alliances and embrace policies like energy taxes and spending cuts that are now deemed politically impossible. But this sort of moral revival is what the country actually needs.

Posted by: Patrick | September 30, 2009

AdAge: Seeking ROI? Kick-start Efforts With Pilot Projects

Seeking ROI? Kick-start Efforts With Pilot Projects

When Budgets Are Tight, Test on Small Scale and Roll Out Wide to Maximize Returns

By Leslie Moeller and Edward Landry

Published: September 28, 2009

Leslie Moeller
Leslie Moeller
Edward Landry
Edward Landry

With the World Bank forecasting that this year will bring the first decline in global GDP since the Second World War, the pressure on marketers to do more with less is enormous. As a result, long-desired ideals such as accountability, marketing-mix optimization and returns maximization have become priorities and are top-of-mind in boardrooms and C-suites everywhere.

For all the urgency and openness to change created by the global recession, transforming these ideals into realities is more difficult than ever. First, many marketers have been charged with reducing marketing spend immediately; they do not have the time to develop the capabilities needed to act precisely and with a clear understanding of the implications of those actions on volume and profit. Second, a marketing return-on-investment capability — the basis for accountability — requires investment, and right now resources are in short supply. Third, even when the desire and the will to be accountable are present, there are key challenges that often block marketers’ progress. These challenges are encompassed in three dichotomies:

  • The availability of data is growing exponentially — but it is unclear how to transform it into actionable insight.
  • New, more-advanced analytical tools are flooding the market — but there is a lack of understanding around how to integrate them into routine marketing processes.
  • New marketing vehicles and the current economic situation have created a need to act quickly and with purpose — but there is a widespread inability to respond at a rate faster than the historical norm.
  • This combination of conditions can appear insurmountable. Indeed, many marketers are treating accountability and the optimization of mix and return as unattainable ideals because of them. On the other hand, as we researched for our new book on marketing ROI, we found that there are marketers at companies such as Kellogg Co., Unilever and LG who have overcome these barriers. And one thing that they all have in common is that they kick-started their efforts with pilot projects.

    Pilot projects are always a smart idea, but they are essential in times like these, when marketers must stretch budgets and minimize risks. When properly designed, pilots enable you to capture real benefits quickly. Better yet, once an action’s benefit is proven, it can be immediately extrapolated and rolled out at a scale to maximize returns and then leveraged to support the long-term development of a marketing ROI capability. Pilots also allow you to evaluate your organizational capabilities — identifying strengths and, just as important, pinpointing weaknesses. To capture all of these advantages, marketers should consider these guidelines as they plan and undertake pilot projects:

    1. Seek real savings. To gain the attention of senior decision-makers and clearly demonstrate the potential savings, pilot projects need to be positioned within a major spending category. For instance, when Kellogg Co. first decided to develop its marketing ROI capabilities, it focused its pilot on trade promotions for its cereal business in California, which served as a microcosm of the U.S. market. Pilots should also encompass several marketing vehicles or brands to test the breadth of their applicability and support the learn-extrapolate-roll-out process.

    2. Get buy-in to capitalize on success. The larger purpose of the pilot project must be effectively communicated to senior management. We have seen companies run a highly successful pilot that saves a few million dollars, congratulate all concerned and then go back to business as usual — leaving hundreds of millions in potential savings on the table. To avoid this, the pilot needs a champion who can place it in the proper context, shepherd it, and use it to drive the larger marketing ROI program afterward. This champion will help senior management understand the level of change required to create an ROI capability and build organizational support for the initiative, including a well-thought-out plan to scale the capability if the pilot is successful.

    3. Identify technical, organizational and skill gaps. Before undertaking a pilot project, marketers should ensure that it is designed to reveal any gaps in the company’s ability to implement and execute a full-scale marketing ROI program. This means that it must test for the essential elements of the capability — the four pillars of analytical prowess, decision-support tools, embedded processes and organizational alignment. Without the support of each of the four pillars, ROI capability cannot develop into a full-fledged organizational capability. But these pillars are always present in varying degrees in individual companies. Accordingly, the pilot program must create a deeper understanding around which pillars are already in place, which pillars will need renovation and which pillars may need to be built from scratch.

    4. Seek help, but minimize costs. Marketers typically need outside help when creating marketing ROI pilot projects, especially when they are not experienced in gathering and preparing data, building analytical models and designing decision-support tools. These can be expensive endeavors, but the costs can be controlled. There is currently an explosion in marketing ROI models and tools, many of which can be purchased “off-the-shelf” and customized at a relatively low cost. And the analytical prowess necessary is also available on a contract basis. With some careful shopping, successful pilot projects can be created for a reasonable investment and should deliver a return of five to 10 times that investment in six months or less.

    Far too often, the idea of developing a marketing ROI capability and driving accountability through that function is treated as a platitude rather than an essential for success. This recession has reaffirmed accountability’s position at the top of the marketing agenda. Marketers who move quickly and thoughtfully now to initiate and build a marketing ROI capability can obtain traction and impact with relatively small investments and earn huge dividends in the future.

    ABOUT THE AUTHORS
    Leslie Moeller and Edward Landry are partners at Booz & Company and the authors of “The Four Pillars of Profit-Driven Marketing: How to Maximize Creativity, Accountability, and ROI (McGraw-Hill, 2009).”

    Forbes.com

    New Geographer
    Purple Politics
    Joel Kotkin, 09.29.09, 12:00 AM ET

    You don’t have to be a genius, or a conservative, to recognize that California’s experiment with ultra-progressive politics has gone terribly wrong. Although much of the country has suffered during the recession, California’s decline has been particularly precipitous–and may have important political consequences.

    Outside Michigan, California now suffers the highest rate of unemployment of all the major states, with a post-World War II record of 12.2%. This statistic does not really touch the depth of the pain being felt, particularly among the middle and working classes, many of whom have become discouraged and are no longer counted in the job market.

    Even worse, there seems little prospect of an immediate recovery. The most recent projections by California Lutheran University suggest that next year the state’s economy will lag well behind the nation’s. Unemployment may peak at close to 14% by late 2010. Retail sales, housing and commercial building permits are not expected to rise until the following year.

    This decline seems likely to slow–or even reverse–the state’s decade-long leftward lurch. Let’s be clear: This is not a red resurgence, just a shift toward a more purplish stance, a hue that is all the more appropriate given the economy’s profound lack of oxygen.

    There is growing disenchantment with the status quo. The percentage of Californians who consider the state “one of the best places” to live, according to a recent Field poll, has plummeted to 40%, from 76% two decades ago. Pessimism about the state’s economy has risen to the highest levels since Field started polling back in 1961.

    Inevitably, this angst has affected political attitudes. Though still lionized by the national media, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings have fallen from the mid-50s two years ago into the low 30s. The 12% approval rate for the state legislature, according to a Public Policy Institute of California survey in May, stands at half the pathetic levels recorded by Congress.

    Moreover, voters now favor lower taxes and fewer services by a 49-to-42 margin–as opposed to higher taxes and more services. Support for ultra-green policies aimed to combat global warming has also begun to ebb. For the first time in years, a majority of Californians favors drilling off the coast. Californians might largely support aggressive environmental protections, but not to the extreme of losing their jobs in the process.

    Remarkably, state government seems largely oblivious to these growing grassroots concerns. The legislature continues to pile on ever more intrusive regulations and higher taxes on a beleaguered business sector. Agriculture, industry and small business–the traditional linchpins of the economy–continue to be hammered from Sacramento.

    Agriculture now suffers from massive cutbacks in water supplies, brought about in part by drought, but seriously worsened by the yammerings of powerful environmental interests. Large swaths of the fertile central valley are turning into a set for a 21st-century version of Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.

    At the same time, the state’s industrial base is rapidly losing its foundation. Toyota recently announced it was closing its joint venture plant in Fremont, the last auto assembly operation in the state, shifting production to Canada and Texas. Even the film business has been experiencing a secular decline; feature film production days have fallen by half over the decade, as movie-making exits for other states and Canada.

    Most important, California may be undermining its greatest asset: its diverse, highly creative and adaptive small-business sector. A recent survey by the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council ranked California’s small-business climate 49th in the nation, behind even New York. Only New Jersey performed worse.

    Regulation plays a critical role in discouraging small-business expansion, a new report from the Governor’s Office of Small Business Advocate suggests. Prepared by researchers from California State University at Sacramento, the report estimates that regulations may be costing the state upward of 3.8 million jobs. California currently has about 14 million jobs, down 1 million since July 2007.

    Ironically, the regulatory noose is now slated to tighten even further as a result of radical measures–from energy to land use–tied to reducing greenhouse gases. Another study, authored by California State University researchers, estimates these new laws could cost an additional million jobs.

    Many in the state’s top policy circles, as well as academics and much of the media, dismiss the notion that regulations could be deepening the recessionary pain. Some of this stems from the delusion–always an important factor in this amazing state–that ultra-green policies will actually solidify California’s 21st-century leadership. Few seem to realize that other states, witnessing the Golden State’s economic meltdown, might not rush to emulate California’s policy agenda.

    Internally, discontent with the current agenda seems particularly strong in the blue-collar, interior regions of the state. Brookings demographer Bill Frey and I have described this area as the “Third California.” In the first part of the decade, this region expanded roughly three times as rapidly as Southern California, while the Bay Area’s population remained stagnant.

    Today the Third California represents roughly 30% of the state’s population, compared with barely 18% for the ultra-blue Bay Area. The most conservative part of the state has skewed somewhat more Democratic in recent elections, largely due to migration from coastal California and an expanding Latino population.

    But the intense economic distress now afflicting the interior counties–where unemployment rates are approaching 20%–may now reverse this process. The ultra-green politics embraced by the Democrats’ two prospective gubernatorial nominees-Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom–may not appeal much to a workforce heavily dependent on greenhouse-gas-emitting industries like farming, manufacturing and construction.

    Eventually, the Democrats may rue their failure to run a pro-business, pro-growth candidate, particularly one with roots in the interior region. This oversight could cost them votes among, say, Latinos, who have been far harder hit by the recession than the more affluent (and overwhelmingly white) coastal progressives epitomized by Brown and Newsom. Along with independents, roughly one-fifth of the electorate, Latinos could prove the critical element in the state’s purplization.

    This, of course, depends on the Republicans developing an attractive pro-growth alternative. In recent years, the party’s emphasis on conservative cultural issues and xenophobic anti-immigrant agitation has hurt the GOP in the increasingly socially liberal and ethnically diverse California.

    Although he has proved a poor chief executive, Gov. Schwarzenegger did at least show such a political approach could work. The recent emergence of three attractive Silicon Valley-based candidates, including former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, as well as the likable libertarian-leaning former congressman Tom Campbell, could score well at the polls.

    This political course-correction should be welcomed not only by Republicans but by California’s moderate Democrats and Independents. However blessed by nature and its entrepreneurial legacy, California needs to move back to the pro-growth center if it hopes to revive both its economy and the aspirations of its people.

    Joel Kotkin is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is executive editor of newgeography.com and writes the weekly New Geographer column for Forbes. He is working on a study on upward mobility in global cities for the London-based Legatum Institute. His next book, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, will be published by Penguin early next year.

    Mark Zuckerberg: The evolution of a remarkable CEO

    October 2, 2009 | Matt Marshall

    mark-zuckerbergAbout six months ago, critics pummeled Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

    He’d made questionable management decisions, or so it appeared from the outside. He’d fumbled the site’s redesign and botched the company’s terms of service agreement — moves that whipped up negative publicity and user backlash. Some people asked whether it was time for Zuckerberg to go.

    Six months later, those critics have gone. The company is enjoying astounding momentum — blowing through user growth forecasts and becoming cash-flow positive earlier than expected. Recent management hires make the company look more impressive than ever. Zuckerberg remains firmly in charge.

    What happened? Insiders say changes reflect the steady decision-making over the past year and a half by a maturing Zuckerberg. Facebook’s founder, who was under drinking age when he received his first investment round from a venture capitalist five years ago (investor Jim Breyer once complained he couldn’t even buy Zuckerberg a glass of wine to celebrate the round) is emerging as a talented business manager, according to a number of executives and investors I talked to over the past several weeks: He’s hiring seasoned executives and entrusting key roles to them, becoming more comfortable communicating and leading, and bringing more order to the chaos that so far has characterized the company.

    David Sze, a venture capitalist from Greylock Capital and investor in Facebook, says he has watched Zuckerberg over the past two years since his investment, and may have underestimated Zuckerberg’s ability to scale. “When I invested, I thought Mark was one in a million. Now I think Mark is maybe one in a trillion.”

    Several executives and board members, including Sheryl Sandberg, Mike Schroepfer, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jim Breyer and David Sze talked openly for this piece. Other employees requested anonymity.

    Finding the right business culture

    yufbAs an example of Zuckerberg’s new footing, take the incident surrounding the hiring and firing of the company’s chief financial officer, Gideon Yu (pictured right). Just 18 months ago, hiring Gideon Yu, the seasoned former Yahoo treasurer and YouTube CFO, was considered a ridiculous coup for Facebook. So much so that when Yu left earlier this year, some outsiders saw it as a strategic fumble, and press reports started questioning Zuckerberg’s rule: Why was there so much dissension within Facebook’s leadership? Talk with employees, though, and they’ll tell you sentiment was different on the inside. Facebook had grown so much in stature that even Yu became expendable. Several employees say they weren’t rattled by Yu’s unexplained departure. Zuckerberg silenced the critics in June when he hired the highly respected former Genentech chief financial officer, David Ebersman, as the new CFO.

    “Every six months, he can upgrade every role in the company,” said one employee about Zuckerberg, requesting anonymity. “That’s true for Gideon Yu, it’s even true for [COO Sheryl] Sandberg.”

    david-ebersmanThe Yu replacement was more than just another management shuffle. It was part of an emerging preoccupation by Zuckerberg with business culture. Genentech’s Ebersman (left) embodied much of those ideals. Well before the hire, Zuckerberg forwarded an article about Genentech to one of his advertising product leaders, Tim Kendall. The piece extolled Genentech’s hardworking but “meaning”-based culture, which has kept Genentech on the edge of innovation and growing for 25 years. Zuckerberg’s focus on culture contrasts with three years ago, when he hired Owen Van Natta, the former Amazon executive: “Zuck cared less about incorporating Amazon’s culture,” said one manager. “It was more: ‘Can this guy make me win?’” Van Natta left last year.

    The ruthless meritocracy

    Zuckerberg’s increased sensitivity about hiring is double-edged, however: It means a more ruthless “managing out” of employees if they underperform. Every employee is rated on a scale from 1 to 5, with five being the highest. No one gets a five. If you get a 1 or a 2, you’re quickly shown the door. Related to that are the steady departures of early founders and executives. Two of them, Adam D’Angelo and Dustin Moskovitz, were Zuckerberg’s high-school and college friends, respectively. They weren’t forced out, but they burned out or realized they weren’t right for their jobs. Had they not left of their own accord, they’d have been passed over in hierarchy shifts. “There’s a clear path of bodies,” said one employee, conceding that it’s easy to come to a cynical view: “Zuckerberg uses people for what they’re worth and kicks them to the curb.” However, if you talk to employees still at the company, they see it differently: It’s a ruthless Silicon Valley-style meritocracy — where the talented and hardworking rise to the top.

    chris-coxFor years, Facebook had no human resources manager. In 2006, the company hired an HR manager, but she stayed 3 months and then left. Zuckerberg couldn’t care less about HR. However, things changed when Zuckerberg appointed a 25-year-old engineer to run the department, Chris Cox (right). The grad-school dropout was the last person you’d think could run HR, but it was the beginning of what would become a serious investment of time into fixing Facebook’s hiring message. A very early employee, Cox shared Zuckerberg’s vision as intimately as anyone. The Zen-like Cox would greet prospective employees with a 30-minute Facebook mantra about how Facebook is going to change the world by connecting people.

    The Sandberg era of “stability” begins

    Cox’s work built on the evangelism of early Zuckerberg acolytes like the charismatic Sean Parker (who left the company two years ago). Facebook’s reputation spread — it was the coolest company in the valley to work for. Oddly though, as late as 2007, Facebook’s employees weren’t having that much fun. Cliques tended to form around whoever seemed Zuckerberg’s favorite executive at the time. For a while it was Parker, then it was Van Natta, then someone else. Facebook was a snakepit. People jostled for position: “Angst, stress and burnout,” recalls one insider.

    sheryl-sandberg-1

    That all changed in March 2008, when Zuckerberg brought on Sheryl Sandberg (left), a respected executive at Google who had built out a considerable team at that company. The two met at a party thrown by a Google executive. Zuckerberg peppered her with questions about how to “scale” a business, and then wooed her to join him. After Zuckerberg made several promises — including locating his desk next to hers and meeting at least once a week — Sandberg agreed.

    Sandberg’s reign as COO, of course, has brought its own form of politics, but at least it’s brought stability. The evidence: “They seem more jazzed, happier,” says Saar Gur, an investor with several friends at Google and Facebook. Googlers, some who never thought they’d leave Google, are leaving to join Facebook and spreading the word. “I’ve got friends at Google who say that for the first time they feel like they’re really missing something by not working at Facebook,” said Gur. Up to 20 percent of Facebook’s employee base now hails from Google.

    It’s incentives, stupid

    There’s also a growing recognition by Zuckerberg that “all human behavior boils down to incentives.” That’s reflected by Zuckerberg’s efforts to motivate each person according to what gets them excited: For engineers, that means giving them the best product to build, but for business executives, it means big financial incentives. Zuckerberg backs that up with an unconventional compensation scheme. Most Silicon Valley companies grant you a single set of stock options. You may get a bonus if you do well, but it’s unusual to be able to increase your stock option grant. At Facebook, if you excel in meeting your project goals, you can double your stock option count in 1.5 year “refreshing” cycles. This individual multiplier is added on to another bonus that is based on how well the company does as a whole, in terms of user and revenue growth. But here’s the tough part: Managers have to force-rank their employees. The more Machiavellian managers make a point of telling their employees where they stand. If you’re tenth on of team of 10, you’re hanging on by a thread, and you know it.

    So absorbed has Zuckerberg become in running the company that although he feigns wanting to code, and pledges he’s going to go home and work on product features, it’s rare that he actually codes anymore, say those around him. Instead, he’s making himself accessible for things like interviews of candidates, talking strategy, and putting together deals. Before acquiring Friendfeed, Zuckerberg briefed up with his legal and business team, and formulated the deal terms to buy the company, negotiating it personally.

    The focus on execution, creativity and big bets

    mike-schroepferZuckerberg bought Friendfeed because of its talented team. In Silicon Valley, it’s well known that the talent bell-curve among engineers is steep. A good engineer can be 10 times more efficient than an average engineer — a genius engineer translates into more impact for Facebook, and Zuckerberg understands that, says Mike Schroepfer, vice president of engineering. Schropefer (pictured right), the former Mozilla executive, was himself hired to replace predecessor D’Angelo. In hiring, Facebook cares not just about raw talent — including IQ or GPA — but also about whether someone has shown they can follow through and do things. Creativity is also sought for. The hiring of Blake Ross, the former Firefox developer, and of the Friendfeed team, are frequently mentioned as examples.

    Zuckerberg has ceded vast swaths of authority to executives around him, starting with the hiring of Sheryl Sandberg, the former Google executive. Sandberg leads Facebook’s business and operations. Under her are business execs, Dan Rose and Mike Murphy. Zuckerberg devised a new role, led by Chamath Palihapitiya, that ties together the three existing business units (product, sales, business) in a singular focus on ways to grow user numbers. Such a “VP of Growth” is unusual, if unheard of, at large companies. In retrospect, though, Zuckerberg’s move was a stroke of brilliance.

    chamath-1“Zuck,” as he is referred to by employees, had serious doubts about creating such a position. It meant departing from the company’s focus on core feature development, and looking at data that showed more precisely how users were using the site, from clicking on links to sharing buttons — and tweaking those features to boost activity accordingly. Zuck locked horns with Palihapitiya (left), debating, for example, whether it was the sheer number of friends a user starts with, or simple virality (making it easy to invite other friends) that was more critical to driving growth. Palihapitiya was behind virality. They decided to push both, but optimized for virality first, then friend count. It turned out to be the right decision. Growth accelerated. It was “a massive, colossal home-run,” in Palihapitiya’s words.

    Zuckerberg acknowledges this, and seems to enjoy the Devil’s Advocate role Palihapitiya plays. Like Zuckerberg, Palihapitiya is strong willed, and speaks his mind (in Palaihapitiya’s case, it sometimes leads to controversy), and few others at Facebook play that role. Palihapitiya says Zuckerberg deserves credit for trusting him. Palihapitiya had struggled in earlier roles, where he’d had mixed success at best, including presiding over Facebook’s disastrous Beacon project. But by giving him another shot, Zuck turned Palihapitiya from a self-described “B player” into an A-player. In part, one employee said, Palihapitiya’s resurrection stemmed from the deeper bench of talent now at Facebook: The company is now readier to take such risks.

    The evolving communicator

    Palihapitiya says Zuckerberg is so attentive that he leans over and “physically listens to you.” Indeed, the delegation of power coincides with an increased attention by Zuckerberg to communication. Earlier this year, Zuckerberg personally took responsibility for a delayed program that would buy back employee stock. Someone drafted a letter to employees disclosing the delay and gave it to Zuckerberg, but Zuckerberg inserted a sentence saying he was sorry (even though Sandberg said numerous factors led to the delay, many of them not in Zuckerberg’s control).

    He’s developed more ease in public speaking, in part because of more than a year of company-wide question-and-answer meetings. ”He’d say very few words before,” Palihapitiya recalls. Zuckerberg, whose demeanor is often described as halting, but intense, has since taken speaking training and been receptive to speaking tips from others. In part, he’s also driven by an awareness of how important communication is for the company. He used to be preoccupied with building out features for the Web site, less by public perception. When controversy broke out two years ago around Beacon, it was an awakening: “I don’t think he internalized how brand damaging it was,” said a long-time employee who watched how Zuckerberg learned from the experience. “Now he’s absurdly concerned about [branding].”

    If you look closely enough at Facebook, for all the chaos that still reigns at the company amid the frantic product launches, there is emerging a paradoxical appreciation for order and process. The company’s new digs exemplify this: Zuckerberg has placed his desk at the geometric center of the new building — located at the shortest walking distance form any point in the building. Next to him sit the leaders of each company division: Schroepfer, of engineering, Cox of product (Cox took over product last year, moving over from HR) and Sandberg, of operations. This way, any employee can walk by the area up to four times a day: “I want to bump into people on my way to get coffee,” says Schroepfer, who argues the structure affects psychology.

    Zuck the great

    Despite the signs of Zuckerberg’s personal development, insiders say he has always displayed qualities that make him a leader. He is relentlessly competitive. Last month, he and other engineers challenged each other to do 5,000 pushups in a week. Zuckerberg vowed he could do it, but others doubted him, placing 30-to-1 odds against it, recalls Sandberg. Zuckerberg insisted the goal was easily attainable. He took regular breaks throughout the day to do 10-15 pushups, even if he was in the middle of a meeting with visitors. He completed the 5,000.

    Outside of Facebook, and his girlfriend Priscilla Chan, there’s time for much else in Zuck’s life. He’s been called an ascetic. He unabashedly tells people he does not party. People compare him to Google’s co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin: disciplined and focused. On the business side, he likes to push forecasts higher in a continued test of his executives (see our piece about his challenge to Palihapitiya). People also talk about his intelligence. Palihapitiya refers to Zuck’s ability to “random walk,” or compute outcomes of particular decisions. He often moves two or three steps ahead of people he’s talking with, making it easy to fall behind. One example often mentioned of Zuckerberg’s prescience was his conceiving of the idea for Facebook’s platform as early as 2005.

    Finally, Zuckerberg’s long-term vision for the company — he thinks in terms of decades — makes him prone to make huge, risky bets. He pushed through a redesign that caused massive protests, but with further tweaks, those protests have died down. The Terms of Service controversy earlier this year is another example. Instead of suggesting a quick removal of an offending clause related to personal privacy, he moved to completely overhaul the TOS — and encouraged users to participate.

    If there were rumors about internal dissension at Facebook, board member Jim Breyer says that not once has the board ever thought of removing Zuckerberg as CEO (not that it could if it tried; Zuckerberg, the largest shareholder, still effectively controls the board). Breyer says Zuckerberg reminds him of Michael Dell — the founder of Dell who made a series of courageous decisions to disrupt the market with his PC company by innovating on the business model (selling PCs directly to consumers online). Like Dell, Zuckerberg is managing to create a huge business, even while lacking the dominant technology position that a Microsoft or Google had enjoyed in their markets. Zuckerberg’s continued hiring of talented leaders is the most impressive, says Breyer: “Mark is getting better and better with each month.”

    For Palihapitiya, a better comparison is basketball’s greatest star: “Michael Jordan was not born the best basketball player in the world. He grew into it with practice,” Palihapitiya said. “Mark Zuckerberg has evolved and will evolve into being one of the best CEOs. He will build an enduring company that has generated immense value, but it will be an evolution.”

    AOL’s Armstrong: Web Content Evolution Coming in 2010

    Sept 21, 2009

    -By Mike Shields

    mw/photos/stylus/98724-TimArmstrongM.jpgAOL’s Tim Armstrong

    According to Tim Armstrong, chief executive officer of AOL, what we’ve seen to date on the Web, content-wise, is the equivalent of ultimate frisbee.

    During a keynote session on Monday (Sept. 21) at the Mixx Conference in New York, Armstrong predicted that over the next decade the Internet will enter a new phase during which the quality of content online will reach the medium’s potential. In making that prediction, he alluded to an old highlight from the early days of ESPN when longtime anchor Chris Berman delivered the score in an obscure championship game from an ultimate frisbee event. Of course, since that time, ESPN has become one of the most powerful brands in the world and regularly showcases the top sporting events.

    The Web should follow a similar path, believes Armstrong. During his keynote address, he argued that over the past two decades growth on the Internet has been driven by technology that provides users access, followed by the rise of platforms that make navigating the Web
    easier—i.e. ‘the pipes’. Starting in 2010, the Web will see growth coming from “really what is going to come through the pipes,” he said. “Content always trails distribution,” he added. “When we think about the Internet…we feel like we are in Chris Berman mode.”

    The hope is that the upcoming content evolution will be led by AOL, which has doubled down its committment to original content in the past year or so, much of which is produced by professional journalists. During a session with reporters earlier in the day, AOL Media
    president Bill Wilson said, heading into next year, AOL will produce 75 percent of its own content, up from less than 30 percent last year.

    Some of AOL’s newer forays into original content have been aimed at underserved demographics, such as young males or niche music fans. That’s likely to be the path the company continues on. Armstrong in his address described what he called “Blockbuster moments”—moments when a traditional, brick-and-mortar business starts struggling, providing an opening for a leaner digital company to swoop in and siphon off business. He was referring to a recent announcement that Blockbuster plans to close over 1,500 stores, providing a window for companies like Netflix and other online movie distributors.

    He forsees many similar opportunities occuring in the Web content arena, or as he put it, “large white spaces.” It’s those “white spaces” where he believes AOL could dominate. “We want to build the world’s best content at the highest scale,” he said. “Period. Stop.”

    Posted by: Patrick | October 11, 2009

    Forbes.com: It’s Time For Deficit Reduction

    Forbes.com

    Notations
    It’s Time For Deficit Reduction
    Bruce Bartlett, 10.09.09, 12:00 AM ET

    Few people on the right or left deny the necessity of deficit reduction. The deficit figures projected were unsustainable even before the recession collapsed tax revenues and necessitated an expansion of spending. Nor do the left and right disagree on when deficit reduction should take place: Both say, not now. It’s something we can do later, after the crisis is past; any effort to cut spending now would be strenuously opposed by the left, and any effort to raise taxes would be equally strenuously opposed by the right.

    Of course, they are both right in the sense that we don’t want to impose spending cuts or tax increases that would take effect until we are past the crisis. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t start planning now for deficit reduction or put in place policies that wouldn’t take effect for several years. If we wait until another crisis is upon us that demands deficit reduction, many options that are available today will be foreclosed by the necessity of acting quickly.

    For example, every budget expert knows that entitlement programs need to be reigned in. These are programs like Social Security and Medicare for which spending is automatic; Congress can’t cut spending for them just by appropriating less money, as is the case with so-called discretionary programs.

    Since entitlement programs can only be controlled by changing the law regarding eligibility or changing benefit formulas, it is very hard to cut spending for them. Just look at how difficult it has been for Democrats to enact health reform, even when expanding health insurance coverage is popular and they control both houses of Congress by large margins. It will be vastly more difficult to sharply cut Medicare when the goal is deficit reduction.

    It will be doubly difficult if Congress is under pressure to achieve budgetary savings right away in response to a crisis resulting from runaway inflation, a crashing dollar or sky-high interest rates. That is because the only means of cutting entitlements in the short run are extraordinarily difficult to achieve, politically, and don’t even achieve lasting savings. But those that are easier to achieve and have long-term effects necessarily require a considerable amount of time to take effect.

    Regarding Social Security, it is simply impossible to cut benefits in the near term. Beneficiaries believe, rightly or wrongly, that they have earned every penny they receive and will ferociously fight any effort to cut them as strenuously as a mother bear would fight to protect her cubs.

    Historically, the most that Congress has been able to do is delay paying the cost of living adjustments, which does almost nothing to reduce the trajectory of spending. Yet it has taken extraordinary political effort to achieve even that because the entitlement mentality among the elderly is so great that they expect a COLA even when there is no inflation.

    (See Bruce Bartlett’s column from last week for more on COLA.)

    Indeed, there is an effort underway in Congress right now to pay a Social Security COLA in January even though there has actually been deflation–a falling price level–over the past year. Between August 2008 and August 2009, the Consumer Price Index fell 1.5%. Yet because of the power of the elderly on Capitol Hill, there is a good chance that they will get what they want, because they always get what they want.

    Cutting Medicare is a little easier, but not much. Historically, short-run savings have been achieved largely by paying doctors and hospitals less. This just leads to more and more doctors refusing to treat Medicare patients or loading them up with unnecessary tests and procedures in order to achieve a reasonable compensation.

    The easiest and best way to cut both Social Security and Medicare is to raise the age of eligibility. This was proved in 1983 when Democrats negotiated a deal with Ronald Reagan to fix Social Security by raising the payroll tax rate and doing nothing to reduce benefits.

    When this legislation came up in Congress, however, Rep. Jake Pickle, D-Texas, chairman of the Social Security Subcommittee, thought it was irresponsible not to do anything to restrain the program’s costs. On his own, he offered an amendment to the bailout legislation that would raise the normal retirement age to 67 from 65.

    Pickle argued, quite correctly, that longevity had increased a great deal over the previous 50 years and thus people were drawing Social Security much longer than anticipated. Furthermore, the retirement age was intentionally set at a relatively low level in the first place in order to encourage seniors to retire and thereby open up jobs.

    But the most important thing about Pickle’s amendment was that it wouldn’t take effect for a long time and therefore would not affect anyone in retirement or anywhere near retirement, and those affected had many years to prepare and adapt.

    The Pickle amendment was accepted by both the House and Senate and was the only significant spending cut in the final legislation. It mandated that beginning in 2000–17 years after enactment–the normal retirement age would begin to rise by two months per year.

    This year, one will need to be age 66 before drawing full Social Security benefits. This will rise to 67 in the year 2022. Thus it will take almost 40 years for the rise in the retirement age to become fully effective. People may still retire at age 62 with much reduced benefits–benefits that are permanently reduced and do not rise when one reaches age 66. Early retirees are also severely penalized for working by having their benefits reduced if they earn over a small amount.

    Unfortunately, Congress made two mistakes. First, the age of eligibility for Medicare was kept at 65, so people can now qualify for it a year before they can draw full Social Security benefits. Long ago, the age to qualify for Medicare should have been raised to the same age to qualify for Social Security.

    The second mistake is that Congress didn’t increase the retirement age nearly enough. Just since 1980, life expectancy for men at age 65 has increased by almost three years, from 14 years to 16.9 years. For women, the increase has been from 18.4 years to 19.3 years past the age of 65. Social Security’s actuaries predict that longevity will continue to rise. By 2050, men are expected to live another 19.6 years beyond age 65 and women will live another 21.7 years.

    Giving people the same number of years on Social Security that they received in 1940 would require a normal retirement age of at least 70 right now. With the anticipated growth in longevity, we would need a retirement age of 73 by the year 2050.

    I am not necessarily advocating a particular retirement age. I’m only pointing out that there is ample justification for taking an action today that would not take effect for many years and that would achieve significant savings in entitlement spending that might be doable, politically.

    But precisely because an increase in the retirement age would have to be phased in over many years, it would necessarily be off the table in the event of a fiscal crisis requiring cuts in spending immediately and in the very near future.

    Given the limited opportunities for cutting spending in the very near term and the fact that entitlements are effectively off limits owing to their nature, it has long been the case that tax increases were the fastest way of cutting deficits when Congress has been moved to act. Indeed, almost all of the real deficit reduction of the 1980s and 1990s budget deals came from higher taxes.

    Therefore, those who wish to prevent tax increases in the future should be doing everything in their power to enact changes in entitlement programs today, before the crunch hits. Though they may imagine that a fiscal crisis will provide cover for massive spending cuts, in fact, that is a pipe dream. When push comes to shove, higher taxes will be the principal means of closing a budget gap when action is forced by a crisis.

    Bruce Bartlett is a former Treasury Department economist and the author of Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action and Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy. Bruce Bartlett’s new book is available for pre-order: The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.

    Posted by: Patrick | October 27, 2009

    NYTimes.com: Fatal Conceit (of Federal Government)

    Humans are overconfident creatures. Ninety-four percent of college professors believe they are above average teachers, and 90 percent of drivers believe they are above average behind the wheel. Researchers Paul J.H. Schoemaker and J. Edward Russo gave computer executives quizzes on their industry. Afterward, the executives estimated that they had gotten 5 percent of the answers wrong. In fact, they had gotten 80 percent of the answers wrong.

    Fortunately, for those who study the human comedy, the epicenter of overconfidence moves from year to year. Up until recently, people in the financial world bathed in the warm glow of their own self-approval. Hubris in that world always takes the same form: The geniuses there come to believe that they have mastered risk. The future is an algorithm and they’ve cracked the code.

    Over the past year, the bonfire of overconfidence has shifted to Washington. Since the masters of finance have been exposed as idiots, the masters of government have concluded (somewhat illogically) that they must be really smart.

    Overconfidence in government also has a characteristic form: that of highly rational Olympians who attempt to stand above problems and solve them in a finely tuned and impartial manner. In moments of government overconfidence, officials come to see society not as a dynamic and complex organism, but as a machine, which can be rebuilt. In such moments, governance and engineering merge into one.

    Examples of this overconfidence abound. But let us pick just one: the effort to cap financial compensation.

    Back in the days of Wall Street overconfidence, the financial titans believed that they deserved to give each other G.D.P.-level pay packages, even though there is no evidence that such packages improve performance. Now in disgrace, Wall Street firms are rewriting their rules, but the Obama administration has decided it should take control of compensation reform. Nobody seriously believes high pay caused the financial meltdown; it was bubblicious groupthink. But cutting executive pay just polls so well.

    Every great action can be done in a spirit of humility or in a spirit of overconfidence. Regulating pay in a spirit of humility would mean rebalancing the power between shareholders and executives, without getting government involved in micromanaging individual pay decisions.

    But this is not a moment of humility. Treasury officials are now making individual pay-package decisions across an array of different companies — and they must have really big brains to understand the motivational psychology of all those different people. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has decided to police banks and veto pay deals that lead to excessive risk. Those experts must have absolutely gigantic brains if they can define excessive risk years before investments pay off.

    The best and the brightest in government are now rewriting existing pay contracts and determining that certain firms will be compelled to pay much less than their competitors. They’re not leveling the playing field, as a humble government would do. They’re making it less level in complicated ways.

    Reality, of course, has a way of upending finely crafted plans. The effort to cap golden parachutes in 1989 perversely caused companies to increase their golden parachute packages right up to the legal limit. A 1993 law to cap C.E.O. pay led to greater use of stock options and encouraged riskier behavior.

    In advance of the current new pay restrictions, 12 out of the 25 highest-paid executives have already left A.I.G., and 11 out of 25 have left Bank of America. We’ll never know how much future talent was dissuaded from working at these ailing firms.

    Citigroup used to have a really high-performing energy unit. But under the new salary regime, the bank wasn’t permitted to pay the chief of that unit what he thought he was worth. Citigroup was forced to sell that profitable unit at bargain-basement prices to Occidental Petroleum.

    These rules probably won’t even have a big effect on executive wealth. They’ll just drive compensation into back channels and risk-taking into unseen parts of the market.

    Again, the issue is not whether government acts, but whether it acts with an awareness of the limits of its knowledge. Sometimes we seem to have a government with no sense of those limits, no sense that perhaps government officials don’t know how to restructure General Motors, pick the most promising battery technology, re-engineer the health care system from the top, or fine-tune the complex system of executive pay.

    Furthermore, when extending federal authority, the Obama folks never seem to ask how Republicans will use this power when they regain the White House. The Democrats trust themselves to set private-sector salaries and use extralegal means to go after malefactors, but would they trust a future Dick Cheney?

    I hope they know what they’re doing. Because when a future Cheney comes into office, I’m pretty sure he’ll be coming after columnists’ salaries first.

    Posted by: Patrick | November 10, 2009

    Forbes.com: Is Capitalism Moral?

    Forbes.com

    How Capitalism Will Save Us
    Is Capitalism Moral?
    Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames 11.03.09, 6:00 PM ET

    The following is adapted from How Capitalism Will Save Us: Why Free People and Free Markets are the Best Answer in Today’s Economy by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames (Crown Business, 2009).

    Q: If capitalism isn’t greedy, then why do some companies charge exorbitant prices for critical products like gasoline and lifesaving drugs? Aren’t they gouging to reap excessive profits?

    A: Profit is a critical indicator of consumer demand and the only way to ensure that there will be a sufficient supply of anything. By the way, profit is among the smallest components of drug and oil prices.

    When gasoline prices soared between 2004 and 2008, people were enraged by the profits being made by oil companies. A Gallup poll found that more Americans believed the high price of gasoline was due to oil company greed rather than to other factors, including the Middle East conflict. Politicians from California senator Barbara Boxer to then New York senator Hillary Clinton called for measures to “get tough” on “Big Oil.” Vermont senator Bernie Sanders sputtered in an editorial: “Exxon-Mobil has made more profits in the last two years than any company in the history of the world.”

    Similar indignation has been directed at the pharmaceutical industry. Critics accuse drug companies of “gouging,” among other transgressions, calling for various government regulations to rein in “Big Pharma.” “Other countries don’t allow prescription drug companies to gouge their customers,” complained former Congressman Tom Allen (D-Maine).

    The critics aren’t entirely wrong. Bernie Sanders is correct when he says that oil company profits were the highest in history. And it’s true, as Tom Allen suggests, that newly developed brand-name drugs can cost more in America than in other countries. The cholesterol-lowering medicine Lipitor, for instance, costs about sixty cents a pill in Paris and around four dollars in Philadelphia.

    Yet these emotional accusations reflect a misunderstanding of the myriad and complex factors affecting pricing and profit. People who decry oil company profits, for example, don’t understand that a major factor driving up oil prices was the weak value of the dollar on currency markets, a result of the Federal Reserve Bank printing too many greenbacks. Also driving up prices was the high demand for oil, driven by rapid growth in India, China, and eastern and central Europe.

    Both factors, of course, have little to do with profit. In nonrecessionary times, the typical net profit margin of oil companies–what they make off each dollar of revenue–is only around 8 percent. That’s far less than the profit margins of banks (over 19 percent), software companies (17 percent), and even food producers (more than 9 percent). And it’s just a little higher than the profit margin of Starbucks, which is around 7 percent.

    Pharmaceutical profit margins are ordinarily around 18 percent or 19 percent, only nominally higher than those in the software industry. Yet they’re especially reasonable considering that only about one in a hundred drugs ends up on the market. Each drug that makes it must generate enough revenue to cover the development costs of the ninety-nine drugs that didn’t–as well as the cost of future drugs. And bringing a single drug to market costs a major pharmaceutical company anywhere from $800 million to $1.5 billion.

    If a drug company does not come up with new, successful drugs, profits stagnate–and stock plummets. Pfizer, for example, has had a dearth of blockbuster drugs in recent years. The result: the stock had plunged over 70 percent in value between 1999 and 2008.

    Yet some people believe that pharmaceutical makers and oil companies shouldn’t be allowed to make a profit–or that their profits should be limited through taxation or price controls. They don’t understand how profit functions and the role it plays in a Real World economy.

    Profit does more than make some people rich by generating dividends and capital gains. It is also the way our economic system mobilizes people to provide for others. This goes beyond merely serving as an incentive: profit is a critical barometer of demand, telling producers where they should invest–or where they should cut back. It keeps supply flowing smoothly.

    For example, if demand soars for, say, coffee, producers will raise their prices. And why not? Java is in greater demand and thus more valuable. So what happens? The lure of higher profits encourages producers to grow and process more. New coffee suppliers may also be enticed to enter the market. The result: supply increases.

    Then something else happens: profits create competition. Higher profits bring more players into the market. To compete, producers have to slash prices. The result: profits eventually fall.

    An example: Xerox, inventor of the modern photocopying machine. The enormous profits the company made with its first copiers soon attracted countless competitors, including Canon, Ricoh, and Mita (now Kyocera), to name a few. At one time only large offices could afford these machines. Today they’re so cheap that even students can afford desktop models. And not only do they copy, they scan and print, too.

    Scores of other examples are provided by the electronics industry. A few years ago flat-screen TVs cost ten thousand dollars or more. Now you can get many for under five thousand dollars.

    What happens when companies aren’t allowed to generate profits? No barometer exists to adjust supply to meet demand. Politicians like to think that punishing profits serves the public interest. But the Real World economic truth is that it does the opposite. You end up with shortages of essential products–and sometimes surpluses of things no one wants.

    Many people today are too young to remember what happened after President Richard Nixon imposed controls on the price of oil in the 1970s. Immediate shortages of gasoline resulted, which led to gas lines. People had to fill up on given days, depending on whether they had odd- or even-numbered license plates.

    Taxing profits to punish “greedy” companies doesn’t work, either. That’s because profit is a key source of the investment capital companies use to expand operations, innovate, and create jobs.

    In the case of oil companies, taxes on profits destroy capital that would otherwise go toward exploration and new oil production. In 1980 President Jimmy Carter enacted the Windfall Profit Tax to punish supposedly avaricious oil companies. What happened? Domestic production plunged. With oil companies producing less, the levy generated far less for Uncle Sam than proponents had predicted. The Windfall Profit Tax was widely considered a disappointment and was eventually repealed.

    Decades later, when gasoline prices skyrocketed from 2004 to mid-2008, there were no gas lines. Why? Because there were none of the kind of profit-punishing price controls imposed by President Nixon in the 1970s–something antiprofit protesters have failed to notice.

    As for drugs, a major reason newly developed medications are more expensive in the United States is not because of “gouging.” It’s because drug makers charge more in this country to recover the costs of selling to Canada and European nations whose state-run health-care systems keep drug prices artificially low.

    So what do Canadians and Europeans get for their “fairer” drug prices? As we will explore in chapter 7, they get fewer new medicines and treatment with older, frequently less effective drugs.

    Critics say profit is merely a bribe to get businesspeople to provide products and services. Actually, profit is essential to achieving innovation and a higher standard of living.

    The late renowned management guru Peter Drucker repeatedly emphasized this key, oft-ignored point: without profits, there is no capital to build the advances of the future. If you don’t have profit, you don’t get change.

    Profit is not only moral. It’s essential to a healthy economy. What’s immoral is not allowing people to make it.

    Posted by: Patrick | November 20, 2009

    Forbes.com: Republican Deficit Hypocrisy

    Frankly this article is spot on.   As a Republican the truth hurts, but even more galling is the fact that the Party hasn’t adapted to the reality that most voters no longer trust the GOP to govern conservatively from a fiscal standpoint.  A growing number of voters (especially independents) are upset with the direction of spending and deficits; however, the health care reform debate is a classic example of where the GOP has no alternative plan collectively supported by its members that address the needs for reform in a more fiscally responsible way.

    All I hear is mostly doomsday scenarios about the “gov’t takeover” of healthcare, many of which I believe are true, but there is no positive plan for voters to affirmatively direct their caution and suspicion of the Democrat Plan to.  Hence another missed opportunity for the GOP and further example of the lack of credible and authentic leaders to change the dynamic.  My visit earlier this week to the Fall Meeting of the National Republican Senatorial Committee left me no less uninspired.
    Forbes.com

    Notations
    Republican Deficit Hypocrisy
    Bruce Bartlett, 11.20.09, 12:01 AM ET

    The human capacity for self-delusion never ceases to amaze me, so it shouldn’t surprise me that so many Republicans seem to genuinely believe that they are the party of fiscal responsibility. Perhaps at one time they were, but those days are long gone.

    This fact became blindingly obvious to me six years ago this month when a Republican president and a Republican Congress enacted the Medicare drug benefit, which former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker has called “the most fiscally irresponsible piece of legislation since the 1960s.”

    Recall the situation in 2003. The Bush administration was already projecting the largest deficit in American history–$475 billion in fiscal year 2004, according to the July 2003 mid-session budget review. But a big election was coming up that Bush and his party were desperately fearful of losing. So they decided to win it by buying the votes of America’s seniors by giving them an expensive new program to pay for their prescription drugs.

    Recall, too, that Medicare was already broke in every meaningful sense of the term. According to the 2003 Medicare trustees report, spending for Medicare was projected to rise much more rapidly than the payroll tax as the baby boomers retired. Consequently, the rational thing for Congress to do would have been to find ways of cutting its costs. Instead, Republicans voted to vastly increase them–and the federal deficit–by $395 billion between 2004 and 2013.

    However, the Bush administration knew this figure was not accurate because Medicare’s chief actuary, Richard Foster, had concluded, well before passage, that the more likely cost would be $534 billion. Tom Scully, a Republican political appointee at the Department of Health and Human Services, threatened to fire him if he dared to make that information public before the vote. (See this report by the HHS inspector general and this article by Foster.)

    It’s important to remember that the congressional budget resolution capped the projected cost of the drug benefit at $400 billion over 10 years. If there had been an official estimate from Medicare’s chief actuary putting the cost at well more than that, then the legislation could have been killed by a single member in either the House or Senate by raising a point of order. Then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., later said he regretted not doing so.

    Even with a deceptively low estimate of the drug benefit’s cost, there were still a few Republicans in the House of Representatives who wouldn’t roll over and play dead just to buy re-election. Consequently, when the legislation came up for its final vote on Nov. 22, 2003, it was failing by 216 to 218 when the standard 15-minute time allowed for voting came to an end.

    What followed was one of the most extraordinary events in congressional history. The vote was kept open for almost three hours while the House Republican leadership brought massive pressure to bear on the handful of principled Republicans who had the nerve to put country ahead of party. The leadership even froze the C-SPAN cameras so that no one outside the House chamber could see what was going on.

    Among those congressmen strenuously pressed to change their vote was Nick Smith, R-Mich., who later charged that several members of Congress attempted to virtually bribe him, by promising to ensure that his son got his seat when he retired if he voted for the drug bill. One of those members, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, was later admonished by the House Ethics Committee for going over the line in his efforts regarding Smith.

    Eventually, the arm-twisting got three Republicans to switch their votes from nay to yea: Ernest Istook of Oklahoma, Butch Otter of Idaho and Trent Franks of Arizona. Three Democrats also switched from nay to yea and two Republicans switched from yea to nay, for a final vote of 220 to 215. In the end, only 25 Republicans voted against the budget-busting drug bill. (All but 16 Democrats voted no.)

    Otter and Istook are no longer in Congress, but Franks still is, so I checked to see what he has been saying about the health legislation now being debated. Like all Republicans, he has vowed to fight it with every ounce of strength he has, citing the increase in debt as his principal concern. “I would remind my Democratic colleagues that their children, and every generation thereafter, will bear the burden caused by this bill. They will be the ones asked to pay off the incredible debt,” Franks declared on Nov. 7.

    Just to be clear, the Medicare drug benefit was a pure giveaway with a gross cost greater than either the House or Senate health reform bills how being considered. Together the new bills would cost roughly $900 billion over the next 10 years, while Medicare Part D will cost $1 trillion.

    Moreover, there is a critical distinction–the drug benefit had no dedicated financing, no offsets and no revenue-raisers; 100% of the cost simply added to the federal budget deficit, whereas the health reform measures now being debated will be paid for with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, adding nothing to the deficit over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. (See here for the Senate bill estimate and here for the House bill.)

    Maybe Franks isn’t the worst hypocrite I’ve ever come across in Washington, but he’s got to be in the top 10 because he apparently thinks the unfunded drug benefit, which added $15.5 trillion (in present value terms) to our nation’s indebtedness, according to Medicare’s trustees, was worth sacrificing his integrity to enact into law. But legislation expanding health coverage to the uninsured–which is deficit-neutral–somehow or other adds an unacceptable debt burden to future generations. We truly live in a world only George Orwell could comprehend when our elected representatives so easily conflate one with the other.

    Of course, there are good reasons conservatives oppose expanding the government, as the pending health legislation would do, even if it adds nothing to the deficit. But anyone who voted for the drug benefit, especially someone who switched his vote to make its enactment possible, has zero credibility. People like Franks ought to have the decency to keep their mouths shut forever when it comes to blaming anyone else for increasing the national debt.

    Franks is not alone among Republicans for whom fiscal responsibility never consists of anything other than talk. The worst, undoubtedly, is DeLay, who actually went so far as to attack Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., last year for his principled vote against the drug benefit, one of only nine Republican senators to do so. (By my count, there are still 24 Republicans in the Senate who voted for the drug benefit, including such alleged conservatives as Jim Bunning and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, John Cornyn of Texas, Mike Crapo of Idaho, Orrin Hatch of Utah and Jon Kyl of Arizona.)

    Amazingly, leading Republicans still defend the drug benefit. Just the other day, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., celebrated its passage, and at a recent American Enterprise Institute forum, former House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., berated me for criticizing it. In each case, their main argument was that it ended up costing a little less than originally projected. Somehow, I doubt that Frist or Thomas would feel the same way if their wives thought it was OK to buy a closet full of expensive new shoes just because they were on sale.

    I don’t mean to suggest that Democrats are any better when it comes to the deficit, although they have a better case for saying so based on the contrasting fiscal records of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. The national debt belongs to both parties. But at least the Democrats don’t go on Fox News day after day proclaiming how fiscally conservative they are, and organize tea parties to rant about deficits, without ever putting forward any plan for reducing them. Nor do they pretend that they have no responsibility whatsoever for projected deficits, at least half of which can be traced directly to Republican policies, according to Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag.

    It astonishes me that a party enacting anything like the drug benefit would have the chutzpah to view itself as fiscally responsible in any sense of the term. As far as I am concerned, any Republican who voted for the Medicare drug benefit has no right to criticize anything the Democrats have done in terms of adding to the national debt. Space prohibits listing all their names, but the final Senate vote can be found here and the House vote here.

    Bruce Bartlett is a former Treasury Department economist and the author of Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action and Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy. Bruce Bartlett’s new book is: The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

    Forbes.com

    Money
    They Were For Stimulus Before They Were Against It
    Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein 12.01.09, 12:01 AM ET

    Are economies inherently unstable? Are people driven by “animal spirits,” and therefore susceptible to wild overreactions of stupidity and greed? And is government intervention necessary to stabilize these unstable, emotional markets?

    Or, do you believe that capitalism is inherently stable and that economic problems typically have their roots in government mistakes?

    These are the most basic of all economic questions. The answers cut one way or the other–either you believe and act as if the government is necessary for economic stability, or you do not. Every bit of economic analysis and most political decisions about fiscal policy take one side or the other of this debate. Either you believe in classical economic principles, or you believe in Keynesian economic principles.

    The Obama administration is arguing that insurance companies don’t face any competition–i.e., that free markets failed–and that that’s why we need a public health insurance option. And there are many who will claim that we need “another” government stimulus plan to help create jobs. Still others think that without government intervention, man-made global warming will cause Manhattan to be covered by water.

    Typically, it is liberals who believe these things, while conservatives will often argue the opposite–for example, that insurance companies should be allowed to compete across state lines, stimulus spending doesn’t work and that global warming is scare-mongering on a massive scale.

    The relatively stark dividing line between these two camps has been understood by most people. But sometimes the line drifts or becomes less obvious and confusion reigns. Last year, for example, with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in charge, many conservatives got so spooked about the state of the world’s financial system that they supported a government-centered and liberal response to the crisis–taking over financial institutions, threatening “overpaid” CEOs, cutting interest rates to near zero and pushing hard for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which made up most of a $700 billion bailout fund.

    While some argue that “everyone is a general after the battle”–meaning that only in hindsight can you see that TARP was a mistake–we argued loudly last year that rather than bailing out banks, mark-to-market accounting rules should be changed and government involvement should be minimized. But Treasury and Fed officials, along with many analysts and influential pundits, said that the threats to the economy were so grievous and scary that government bailouts were the “only” answer. This argument won the day, mark-to-market changes were pushed to the sidelines as a non-issue and many leading Republicans voted to pass TARP. Many of those votes came from “conservative” politicians who also supported the $150 billion Bush stimulus bill in February 2008.

    Now, with the unemployment rate at 10.2%, many of those same conservatives want to make the case that Obama administration policies have caused this to happen. This is awfully confusing to the average American. Why is one set of bailouts good and necessary, but another set bad and political?

    Conservatives have another problem as well. The economy is recovering. And the more conservatives argue that it can’t recover because of the “uncertainty” caused by Obama policies, the more they leave open the door for the current administration to claim that the stimulus worked. And conservatives who voted for TARP either must agree on some level that this is true, or go back and admit they made a mistake.

    This should not be that hard. Stimulus did not work. TARP, TALF, PPIP, two stimulus bills, huge new government spending, Fed rate cuts–the government tried everything. But the market did not bottom, and banks raised no private capital, until mark-to-market accounting rules were corrected in March and April of 2009.

    Don’t take this in the wrong way. We are classical economists; we believe Keynes was wrong. We think government caused the bubble to begin with, and then made it worse by overreacting and panicking. But it’s awfully hard to support conservatives who argue against government action this year when last year many of these same people supported government bailouts. It’s inconsistent and it’s confusing.

    Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist and Robert Stein senior economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Ill. They write a weekly column for Forbes. Brian S. Wesbury’s new book It’s Not As Bad As You Think: Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive (Wiley) was published in November.

    

    By KRISTI OLOFFSON Kristi Oloffson Wed Dec 9, 4:20 am ET

    Employers and career experts see a growing problem in American society – an abundance of college graduates, many burdened with tuition-loan debt, heading into the work world with a degree that doesn’t mean much anymore.

    The problem isn’t just a soft job market – it’s an oversupply of graduates. In 1973, a bachelor’s degree was more of a rarity, since just 47% of high school graduates went on to college. By October 2008, that number had risen to nearly 70%. For many Americans today, a trip through college is considered as much of a birthright as a driver’s license. (See pictures of the college dorm’s evolution.)

    Marty Nemko, a career and education expert who has taught at U.C. Berkeley’s Graduate School of Education, contends that the overflow in degree holders is the result of many weaker students attending colleges when other options may have served them better. “There is tremendous pressure to push kids through,” he says, adding that as a result, too many students who aren’t skilled become degree holders, promoting a perception among employers that higher education doesn’t work. “That piece of paper no longer means very much, and employers know that,” says Nemko. “Everybody’s got it, so it’s watered down.”

    What’s not watered down is the tab. The cost of average tuition rose 6.5% this fall, and a report released on Dec. 1 by the Project on Student Debt showed that the IOU is getting bigger. Two-thirds of all students now leave college with outstanding loans; the average amount of debt rose to $23,200 in 2008. In the last academic year, the total amount loaned to students increased about 18% from the previous year, to $81 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

    Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for recent grads rose as well. It is now 10.6%, a record high.

    The devaluation of a college degree is no secret on campus. An annual survey by the Higher Education Research Institute has long asked freshmen what they think their highest academic degree will be. In 1972, 38% of respondents said a bachelor’s degree, but in 2008 only 22% answered the same. The number of freshmen planning to get a master’s degree rose from 31% in 1972 to 42% in 2008. Says John Pryor, the institute’s director: “Years ago, the bachelor’s degree was the key to getting better jobs. Now you really need more than that.” (See TIME’s special report on paying for college.)

    Employers stress that a basic degree remains essential, carefully tiptoeing around the idea that its value has plummeted. But they admit that the degree alone is not the ace it once was; now they emphasize work experience as a way to make yourself stand out. Dan Black, director of campus recruiting in the Americas for Ernst & Young, and his team will hire more than 4,000 people this year out of 20,000 applicants. There are a lot of things besides a degree “that will help differentiate how much attention you get,” says the veteran hirer, who has been screening graduates for 15 years.

    Enterprise Rent-A-Car hiring guru Marie Artim, who says her company will hire 8,000 of 20,000 applicants, has found that her applicant pool is changing. “While 10 years ago we may have had the same numbers, today we have higher-quality and better-qualified applicants,” she says.

    So what does it take to impress recruiters today? Daniel Pink, an author on motivation in the workplace, agrees that the bachelor’s degree “is necessary, but it’s just not sufficient,” at times doing little more than verifying “that you can more or less show up on time and stick with it.” The author of A Whole New Mind: Why Right Brainers Will Rule the Future says companies want more. They’re looking for people who can do jobs that can’t be outsourced, he says, and graduates who “don’t require a lot of hand-holding.” (Read “The Incredible Climbing Cost of College.”)

    Left-brain abilities that used to guarantee jobs have become easy to automate, while right-brain abilities are harder to find – “design, seeing the big picture, connecting the dots,” Pink says. He cites cognitive skills and self-direction as the types of things companies look for in job candidates. “People have to be able to do stuff that’s hard to outsource,” he says. “It used to be for blue collar; it’s now for white collar too.”

    For now, graduates can steer their careers where job growth is strong – education, health care and nonprofit programs like Teach for America, says Trudy Steinfeld, a career counselor at New York University. “Every college degree is not cookie cutter. It’s what you have done during that degree to distinguish yourself.”

    Social investment startup Covestor opens to more aspiring portfolio managers

    Picture 32Covestor, a startup that lets people mimic other investors’ moves, is opening its doors and allowing anyone to become a portfolio manager on its investment management service. It will create many more investment options on the site for Covestor members; previously there were only 25 models that users could follow.

    Becoming a manager on the site is contingent on a few conditions: you have to disclose all your real brokerage moves and share a year of performance history. Managers on Covestor can attract others to “follow” and copy their trades, while earning fees based on how many people track them or the total value of the assets they guide.

    “We’re trying to bring the principles and practices of the Internet to finance and allow clients to pick what’s most appropriate for them,” said co-founder  Perry Blacher. “As long as you’re willing to share your real investment activity and be transparent, then we’ll set you up with a level playing field.”

    Blacher says the site has seen 50 percent growth each month over the last three months in assets under management. Covestor is part of a cohort of young startups that are trying to disrupt the traditional mutual fund industry, including  MarketRiders,  Cake Financial and Kaching. Mutual funds have come to manage more than $10 trillion while charging roughly 1 to 3 percent in fees every year. These startups say the industry is opaque — it’s hard to tell whether mutual funds are simply taking a share of an ever-growing pie or whether fund managers have unique skills that allow them to beat market returns. Allowing regular people to share their trading history and strategy gives consumers a transparent alternative to the mutual funds. Each of them has a slightly different approach: Kaching has a broader, more consumer-oriented focus with a lower minimum investment at $3,000 while MarketRiders is more hands-on for wealthier investors that want to watch over their portfolio allocations directly. Covestor’s minimum starts at $10,000 and its fees range from between 0.5 to 2.25 percent.

    The share Covestor gives to managers on its site varies — if you’re not a registered adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission, you get paid a fixed fee based on how many people follow your investments. If you are registered, then you’ll get a roughly 50 percent share of the overall management fee. Blacher says Covestor’s strategy reflects its East Coast and London-roots: it targets professional funds and clients.

    “We’re out to compete with Fidelities and Putnams of the world,” he said. “We are after a more experienced older and wealthier crowd, instead of the Facebook-Yahoo types.”

    Covestor has raised $7.5 million in two rounds of funding from Union Square Ventures, Boston-based Spark Capital and London based Amadeus Capital Partners.

    Posted by: Patrick | December 10, 2009

    Forbes.com: The Government Bubble

    Forbes.com

    Money
    The Government Bubble
    Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein 12.08.09, 12:01 AM ET

    Looking back, most investors now understand that over-investment in housing was in large part caused by the Federal Reserve. The central bank under Alan Greenspan cut interest rates way too low, kept rates there way too long and–when it finally got around to lifting them–did it way too slowly.

    When monetary policy is overly loose, bad things inevitably happen, usually related to mal-investment in a particular sector or across several sectors. Eventually, investment in those areas is pushed too far and will not generate enough cash flow to cover growing debt. Bust follows boom, investment (justifiably) dries up and the system goes through a painful correction.

    With interest rates at essentially zero in 2009 and unlikely to move well into 2010, everyone is looking for the “next bubble.” If you can find the asset class or sector that is frothy, and get in and out before it busts, you may generate abnormally high profits for the next few years.

    There’s no shortage of candidates. Some claim a bubble has already formed in the global stock market, with prices up 60%-plus since the bottom in early March. Others claim commodities will be next –it’s hard to make it through a day without seeing a gold commercial. Still others say U.S. Treasury securities are already in a huge bubble, with interest rates way too low.

    While no fundamental model is perfect, the ones we use suggest U.S. stock prices are not a bubble. With profits expected to continue rising, we think the stock market remains well below fair value. But while we expect industrial commodity prices to remain buoyant, gold, on the other hand, looks frothy. The euro and other foreign exchange rates relative to the dollar also look toppy, as do U.S. Treasury bond prices. Yields are being held artificially low.

    But maybe the worst bubble has nothing to do with the private sector at all. The public sector, particularly the federal government, has benefitted enormously from absurdly low interest rates.

    Think about it. The federal deficit was $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September, or 10% of GDP, the largest peacetime deficit on record. But net interest–the cost of servicing the national debt–was only 1.3% of GDP, the lowest in about 40 years. For comparison, net interest was absorbing about 3% of GDP in the 1980s and 1990s.

    In other words, loose money has created a temporary mirage in which a massive increase in government spending appears to be an easy burden to carry. In particular, the mirage of low rates colors the public’s view of legislative efforts to fully nationalize the U.S. health care system, making it seem more affordable than it is in reality.

    How is this any different than the housing market from a few years back? Homeowners thought they could afford a larger home as long as they assumed interest rates would stay low forever.

    Just like homeowners who relied too much on short-term adjustable rate mortgages, the federal government’s average debt maturity remains less than 4.5 years, which means net interest costs will soar over the next several years as the government rolls over its debt at higher interest rates.

    But here’s what makes a government bubble even worse. When private sector bubbles burst, investors flee that sector. Home building went from 6.3% of GDP back in 2005 to a recent low of 2.4%. Does anyone think a government bubble is going to bring about smaller government anytime soon? Of course not. Government will try to keep its bubble alive by taxing and borrowing even more. But it can’t last forever. Every bubble pops. Eventually.

    Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist and Robert Stein senior economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Ill.They write a weekly column for Forbes. Brian S. Wesbury’s new book It’s Not As Bad As You Think: Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive(Wiley) was published in November.

    Posted by: Patrick | December 18, 2009

    Forbes.com: Not Another Budget Commission?!!

    Forbes.com

    Notations
    Not Another Budget Commission!
    Bruce Bartlett, 12.18.09, 12:01 AM ET

    In a previous column I explained why I think another budget commission is unlikely to solve our deficit problem. Since both Congress and the Obama administration appear to have ignored my advice and are moving to establish one anyway, I want to look a little more deeply today at the problems it will be up against.

    First, let’s take a look at a high-powered report on the federal debt just issued by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts on the problem of rising red ink. This bipartisan commission had a year to study the issue, substantial funds and able staff support from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Moreover, it had a blue ribbon list of members including every former Congressional Budget Office director plus assorted Office of Management and Budget directors and other big names in the world of people who know the federal budget the way a proctologist knows colons.

    In short, the Peterson-Pew Commission had a tremendous number of advantages that a government commission would not have. Such commissions are usually starved for resources, have unrealistic deadlines and are often composed of people who have to learn the subject matter from scratch. More importantly, government commissions are invariably composed of members of Congress and Administration officials who are severely constrained, politically, in terms of what they dare sign on to. Consequently, their reports usually vanish without a trace almost immediately after being published.

    Lacking such constraints, one would expect that the Peterson-Pew report would really lay it on the line, tell it like it is and put forward a serious, detailed plan for cutting the deficit that left no sacred cow unscarred. Sadly, it did none of these things. Its big recommendation is to stabilize the public debt at 60% of the gross domestic product by 2018. I was unable to find a single, solitary deficit reduction proposal anywhere in the report—not $1 of spending that should be cut nor $1 of revenues that should be raised. The whole report consists of nothing but hand-wringing and platitudes about the seriousness of the deficit problem, and how important it is that someone address it one of these days.

    To be fair, the Peterson-Pew Commission did post on its Web site an illustrative list of possible spending cuts and revenue increases that would achieve its goal of merely stabilizing the debt/GDP ratio. However, they are all rather vague–eliminating outdated programs, reforming contracting, broadening the tax base and the like–and none was officially endorsed by the commission or included in its official report.

    I hate to be so critical because many of my friends were involved in the Peterson-Pew project. But my point isn’t to demean their effort, but rather to show how enormous the barriers will be to a government commission with the same mandate. That is especially true given that those proposing a government commission seem determined to guarantee its failure.

    In my earlier column I explained why it’s a bad idea to appoint sitting members of Congress to a budget commission–mainly because their parochial interests will necessarily prevent them from recommending anything that will hurt their chances for reelection no matter how sensible. For example, no farm state senator is going to support abolishing agriculture subsidies even though they are among the most economically harmful and least justified major spending programs in the entire budget. Nor do I see a single Republican in Congress who would be willing to sign on to even the smallest tax increase, for fear that the tea party crowd would come after him or her with pitchforks, literally.

    Yet despite the overwhelming difficulty of getting a member of Congress to sign on to anything that would inflict the tiniest bit of pain on anyone, let alone a key constituent group, the sponsors of a new deficit commission have, bizarrely, decided to fill it almost entirely with current members of Congress and make it virtually impossible for them to come to an agreement on anything. That is because the commission would be required to have the support of three-quarters of its members to recommend any specific deficit reduction measure.

    To see how stupid this is, just look at how dysfunctional the U.S. Senate has become when it only needs 60% of its members to support anything remotely controversial. Now imagine how much more dysfunctional it would be if the threshold was 75%. That’s exactly what will happen if the deficit commission needs 14 of its proposed 18 members to support a measure before it could be recommended. Although the sponsors defend this provision as necessary to ensure broad support within the commission for its recommendations, it is simply a recipe for total gridlock.

    Nevertheless, I can’t really blame members of Congress for lacking the courage or responsibility to get the budget under some semblance of control. All the evidence suggests that they are just doing what voters want them to do, which is nothing.

    It’s true, of course, that when asked about the deficit Americans will always say it is a serious problem and condemn their elected representatives for not doing enough about it. For example, according to a November CNN poll, two-thirds of Americans believe the federal government should balance the budget even during wars and recessions. Other polls show similar results. In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing a poll in which a majority of people didn’t think that the budget deficit was among the nation’s most serious problems, or one where they didn’t think the budget should be balanced at all times.

    However, when asked about specific items in the budget it’s almost impossible to find anything that a majority of people is willing to cut. Indeed, invariably, they want to spend more on almost every program they are asked about. The table below presents results from a Pew Research poll in June. People were asked if the federal government should increase spending for various things, decrease spending or keep it the same. As one can see, there isn’t a single spending program that a majority of Americans favor cutting, and there’s only one, foreign aid, that as many as a third of them are willing to cut.

    Category Increase Decrease No Change Unsure
    Education 67 6 23 4
    Veterans Benefits 63 2 29 6
    Health care 61 10 24 6
    Medicare 53 6 37 4
    Combating Crime 45 10 39 6
    Help Unemployed 44 15 36 6
    Environmental Protection 43 16 34 6
    Energy 41 15 35 9
    Military Defense 40 18 37 5
    Scientific Research 39 14 40 7
    Agriculture 35 12 41 13
    Anti-Terrorism Defense 35 17 41 7
    Foreign Aid 26 34 33 7
    State Department 9 28 50 12

    Lest one think that this poll is exceptional, a new study from the American Enterprise Institute cites several others with similar results. The bottom line is that in principle people want to cut spending and balance the budget, but they are totally unwilling to reduce any significant category of spending to achieve it. Nor are they willing to pay higher taxes. According to a CBS News/New York Times poll in July, 56% of people were opposed to paying more taxes to reduce the deficit and 53% were also opposed to cutting spending.

    In short, the American people are schizophrenic. Simultaneously they want more spending, no increase in taxes and a balanced budget. This might be possible if we were starting from a position in which the budget was balanced. Over time, real growth in the economy would provide additional resources to raise spending without having to raise tax rates. But we are not in that position. We will have a deficit of $1.4 trillion this year and most of the budget is effectively on automatic pilot. 62% of federal spending goes to interest on the debt and mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Of the remaining amount, more than half goes to national defense and just 43% to domestic discretionary programs.

    If we abolished every domestic discretionary program as well as all foreign aid and international affairs spending, it would only reduce the deficit by about half. We would also have to abolish the Defense Department if we wanted to balance the budget without raising taxes.

    As the late economist Herbert Stein always used to say, trends that can’t continue don’t. But that doesn’t mean that inherently unsustainable trends can’t continue for a long time before some crisis finally forces action. It would be better to act in advance of a crisis, but at least insofar as the deficit is concerned it appears that a crisis of some sort–inflation, soaring interest rates, a crashing dollar–will be necessary before the American people are willing to seriously consider tax increases or meaningful spending cuts to get the budget on a sustainable path.

    This is the key reason another budget commission is a waste of time. We just aren’t there yet in terms of economic or political conditions that would make people prefer the pain of budget cuts and tax increases to the status quo. In fact, a new budget commission could make matters worse by allowing our budgetary problems to fester while giving people a false sense that something meaningful is being done about them.

    I agree with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D–Mont. “We don’t need a commission to do our work. We don’t need a new process to solve the problem,” he said on Dec. 10. “To solve the problem, we just need to solve the problem.”

    Bruce Bartlett is a former Treasury Department economist and the author of Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action and Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy. Bruce Bartlett’s new book is: The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

    Facebook readies its Game Dashboard to organize your social gaming life

    game dashboardFacebook is in the midst of redesigning how users find, interact with, and keep track of games on the social network. Called the “Game Dashboard,” the new feature is Facebook’s attempt to play nice with social game developers, serve the interests of gamers, and at the same time stop games from ruining the experience for everybody else.

    The company is reining in the worst abuses of Facebook game companies, which have polluted the network’s communications with spam-like messages that general users have begun to ignore, such as “Joe Smith wants to thank you for chasing crows out of his pumpkin patch.” Facebook has announced that these “push notifications” will no longer be put into the notifications channel, which is one of the ways that apps currently communicate.

    If Facebook does this previously announced redesign right, it will lead to more app usage and allow developers to keep growing. But if it does it wrong, then it will effectively shoot the golden goose, slowing the growth of game publishers such as Zynga and hurting other third-parties as well. The Game Dashboard will thus have a significant effect on how Facebook generates future revenue.

    Gareth Davis, platform manager for games, said the Game Dashboard is going through iterations of its design and nothing is final yet. He said the dashboard will launch in January. Much like Facebook’s toughening stand on special offers, these changes are putting social game makers into a nervous wait-and-see mode, making it a difficult time for them as they adjust to a tectonic shift. But observers have said they think they will have long-term gain, short-term pain from all of the changes.

    “We are all in the throes of major changes on Facebook now,” said Roy Sehgal, general manager at Zynga, said at our recent DiscoveryBeat conference. “They are all going to be great changes because they focus on the user experience. They are going to be great for discovery of apps. They will happen fast. They will force us all how to rethink our games.”

    At the same event, Sebastien DeHalleux chief operating officer at Playfish, said he accepts the fact that Facebook thinks of itself not as a web site but an ever-changing service that has to continuously improve its relevance to users.

    Under the redesign, rather than appearing in your notifications channel, games can tell you what you need to know in different ways. They can put an email in your email inbox. This will take the game spam out of your hair unless you’ve indicated you want it. And that’s the way that non-gamers like it. But for gamers, this could make it harder to tell when something is happening in a game (although there are other ways to track activity — a counter”, for instance, can tell you how many actions you have to take or acknowledge in a game or app that you have bookmarked on your Facebook page). With the redesign, all of your invites for apps will also be stored away in a tab dubbed “invites” that you must click on to view.

    In that sense, Facebook is putting a stop to the spam-like messages game developers send out to attract new users to their games. At the same time, though, Facebook is creating a new page that gives game players all of the information they’d want to know about the games they’re playing.

    Facebook says on its own developer page that “the goal of the Games Dashboard is to make it easier for users to find games on Facebook, including games played recently and the discovery of new games through friends.” But Facebook may want to take a lesson from Microsoft, which created a Windows “game manager” for Windows Vista that didn’t work and angered a lot of game users.

    The Dashboard will display your most-recently played games. If you click on the name of a game, it will take you into that game’s canvas page, where you can find out about it and play it. The canvas page will make it clear to users if they are playing an app created by a third party. The final look for this page is still under development. The Dashboard will also feature Game News, which tells you things like “You are ranked 17th among your friends in Mafia Wars.” And it’ll tell you what your friends are playing.

    Alongside the Game Dashboard is the Application Dashboard, which can tell you about the non-game apps you’re using. But Facebook is creating the Dashboard for games because it is well aware that games are the top apps being used. About two thirds of the top 15 apps are games, according to AppData. Developers can’t have an app be on both dashboards. They have to classify it one way or another, and Facebook will review the classifications.

    Facebook is also, as others have reported, testing its own currency to be used in games and other apps to buy virtual goods. Right now, lots of third parties compete with each other to offer these virtual currencies. These middlemen, such as PlaySpan, take a cut. But Facebook, as the platform owner, could force the app developers to use its own native solution. That would hurt the third parties, but it could also create a universal virtual currency that could be used across games and apps. John Pleasants, chief executive at Playdom, said he was pleased with what Facebook was doing with its credits system and that it would be great if it changed user behavior.

    “It should be able to double conversion rates [of getting a player to pay for something in a free app], which are around 5 percent and it would be great if we could get to about 10 percent,” Pleasants said. “It’s all about reducing friction in the system.”

    Game publishers and developers are giving Facebook their feedback. So it’s a very good time to know people at Facebook. But the move by Zynga to create its own FarmVille.com web site is telling. You still have to use Facebook Connect to play FarmVille on that site. But there is some sense that this site allows for more independence. It shows that third-party developers realize that being totally dependent on Facebook, which can change its platform at will, is not a good idea. If Facebook screws up, the third parties will move to a more friendly platform.

    So Facebook has to walk a fine line of making its 350 million users happy, keeping its game developers happy, and pleasing gamers as well. The creation of the Games Dashboard will no doubt show us how far Facebook can go. Is it supplanting Xbox Live? Will it replace game consoles?

    The Facebook Game Dashboard could be the beginning of something very important in the video game industry. That’s for sure.

    Facebook readies its Game Dashboard to organize your social gaming life

    Posted by: Patrick | January 6, 2010

    The American Spectator: GOP Botched Health Care First

    The Right Prescription

    Republicans Botched Health Care First

    By on 1.5.10 @ 6:08AM

    If you want to understand how the Democrats have been able to push through a gargantuan overhaul of the nation’s health care system that the public overwhelmingly opposes, a good place to look is the Republican Party.

    It’s not that Republicans didn’t do anything; in fact they passed a lot of legislation on health care. They enacted the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, Medicare prescription drugs, Medicare Advantage, and new waivers for state Medicaid programs.

    But they didn’t have any coherent analysis of the real problems in the U.S. health care system. Republicans have never seemed truly interested in the issue, and they enacted these bills in the hopes of deterring Democrat initiatives, not actually improving a dysfunctional system.

    It’s a pity because each of those efforts could have made a big difference if they had been done right.

    The first problem in American health care is excess reliance on “third-party payment,” which divorces patients from any knowledge of or concern for the cost of the care they receive. This inevitably puts a bureaucrat in a position of power between the doctor and the patient. It is the bureaucrat, either public or private, who decides what is worth paying for and how much should be paid.

    The second problem is that health insurance is likewise provided by a third party, either an employer or a government agency. The individual consumer does not choose the policy, has little information about what it costs, and has little power to insist on changes if the insurer performs badly.

    Both of these circumstances reduce the consumer/patient to a childlike dependent status, with little knowledge of or power over the health care decisions made on his or her behalf. That is bitterly ironic since every penny spent on health care actually comes directly from that same consumer/patient in the form of taxes, premiums, or lost wages. It is the consumer’s money and the consumer’s health at stake, but the consumer is the least-influential person in the transaction.

    If the Congressional Republicans had bothered to understand these issues, or had bothered to listen to those who do, they could have tailored their health care initiatives to make a big difference over the past 15 years.

    Take HIPAA, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996. Despite its name, HIPAA does absolutely nothing to encourage portability of health insurance. Quite the opposite, in fact. It simply restricts consideration of preexisting conditions in the small group insurance market.

    Under HIPAA, a person moving between jobs cannot be considered a new applicant in her new coverage if she was previously covered, so any waiting period for benefits is waived. But it is still the employer who chooses the coverage, so the worker doesn’t keep her old coverage. She has to learn how to use a whole new policy, with a different network of providers, different claims-filing procedures, different benefits, and so on.

    The Republicans could have written this bill to allow workers to own their coverage and take it with them from job to job. The employer’s role would be to help fund the premium, not to dictate the kind of coverage the worker must have.

    Similarly with SCHIP, the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, enacted in 1997. SCHIP was aimed at helping children in families that were low income but not poor enough to qualify for Medicaid. The federal government on average pays 70 percent of the costs, and the states pay 30 percent. Though there was some state flexibility in how to set up these programs, most states simply expanded their Medicaid programs to cover the new kids.

    There are big problems with this approach. Very often the parents are covered by insurance provided by an employer, but the employer pays only for covering the worker, not dependents. To cover the children required employees to pay a pretty hefty premium. The Republicans could have simply provided help to parents to pay that premium so the whole family would be on the same insurance plan.

    Instead, they arranged it so the children would be on an entirely separate health care program provided by the state. This divorces the kids from the family and makes the parents learn how to use two entirely separate and unrelated benefit programs. It is an anti-family program, and it was enacted by a Republican Congress.

    The Medicare prescription drug program was another botched job, designed for political reasons, not rational policy. The program pays 75 percent of the cost of drugs up to $2,700 in spending per year. Then it pays nothing. Then when spending reaches $6,154, it starts in again, paying 95 percent of the costs. This makes no sense whatsoever. It would have been far better to have a uniform deductible of perhaps $1,000 or $1,500, after which the program’s benefits kick in. Lower-income people could have been given a funded account to pay for expenses below the deductible.

    This program was massively underfunded and has become a precedent for the even-bigger deficit spending binge we are on today. Republican complaints about Obama’s spending ring hollow when it is pointed out that they did the exact same thing when they were in charge.

    Finally, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid waivers would both have been better programs if they had emphasized an HSA-type approach with an across-the-board deductible for a savings account, funded or not, to pay for small expenses. These approaches have proven very successful in pilot programs with Medicare and Medicaid populations. Indiana’s Medicaid program and the Cash & Counseling programs are examples.

    But here too, the Congressional Republicans were tone-deaf regarding the real problems in health care. They insisted on passing legislation that increased the role of third parties instead of empowering individual Americans. It is a national tragedy that 15 years of governance were squandered by the Republican Party.

    Greg Scandlen (gscandlen@heartland.org) is director of Consumers for Health Care Choices, a project of The Heartland Institute.

    From Network World:

    This story appeared on Network World at

    http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/010710-facebook-twitter-business-tools.html

    In 2010, companies will set policies governing social networking use
    By Jon Brodkin, Network World
    January 07, 2010 11:47 AM ET

    Will 2010 be the year Facebook and Twitter take over the business world? The social networks are growing in popularity by the day, both for personal and business use, yet many IT and business executives remain wary of the risks posed by the online services and skeptical about potential benefits.

    Social networking hacks: Top 10 Facebook and Twitter security stories of 2009

    A number of Web-savvy CIOs are using Twitter to spread their views, engage with colleagues and discuss technology, yet a survey shows that more than half of CIOs in the United States do not allow employees to log onto social networking sites “for any reason” while they’re at work. Another survey conducted in the United Kingdom found that nearly three-quarters of the top brands had no official presence on Twitter, despite the service’s potential for reaching customers. (See related story, 12 CIOs who Tweet.)

    Business users are logging onto public social networking sites far more often than social networks sponsored by their employers, but attempts to block such activity simply will not work, says IDC analyst Caroline Dangson, who researches enterprise collaboration and social technologies.

    As workforces become more distributed, and even office workers spend time working at home, people will use personal devices for business use and it will be difficult for IT to make blanket proclamations banning tools as widely used as Facebook and Twitter.

    “This concept of trying to control or block [social media usage], it is not going to work,” Dangson says. “There’s going to be a divide, with some companies that shun public social networks and are fearful of using them, and some who embrace it and take the risk.”

    An IDC survey of 4,710 U.S. workers in October found that 34% use consumer social networks like Facebook and LinkedIn for business purposes, and 9% use microblogging sites like Twitter for business purposes.

    Yet many of their employers are trying to stop them from doing so.

    A Robert Half Technology survey of 1,400 CIOs from U.S. companies with at least 100 employees found that 54% completely prohibit use of social networking sites, such as Facebook, MySpace and Twitter, while at work. Nineteen percent allow social networking sites for business purposes only, while another 16% allow “limited personal use.” Just 10% permit use of social networking sites “for any type of personal use.”

    Some brands have begun using Facebook and Twitter to reach consumers, both to promote themselves and communicate about company failures. Rackspace, for example, has used Twitter extensively to communicate with users after several power outages knocked customer services offline.

    But large companies are also avoiding social networking sites in droves. New Media Age, a United Kingdom publication, analyzed the top 500 U.K. brands and found that 74% have no presence at all on Twitter, and just 10% use the site daily.

    Dangson believes Facebook is a good setting for businesses to reach consumers, but that there is a greater business opportunity in Twitter, particularly in business-to-business markets, because “everything is public and open.”

    Twitter “is a fantastic direct marketing tool,” she says. “People have opted in to follow you and follow your messages.”

    Others tout the potential of LinkedIn, another major social network that is business-oriented, and often used to build business relationships and find new jobs.

    Users of Facebook and Twitter likely care only about the sites’ usefulness, but many financial analysts have wondered how these social networks can create a compelling business model. Out of all of them, LinkedIn may have the greatest financial future, and potential to be acquired by a larger company, says Robert Armstrong, a financial analyst and senior columnist at Dow Jones Investment Banker.

    Major Web properties like Google and eBay have been successful because their business model is based upon transactions, he notes. Facebook and Twitter seem to lack that advantage, but LinkedIn is centered around a pretty major type of transaction – the hiring of a new employee.

    Even if you’re not seeking a new job, LinkedIn may be the best place for IT folks looking to exchange information with colleagues. An IDC survey of 204 IT decision-makers found that LinkedIn is the best social network for finding information to support IT purchases. Twitter was ranked second, followed by Facebook, MySpace, and YouTube.

    Clearly, use of social networks will continue to increase in 2010. Company executives need to accept this reality – they don’t have to take a hands-off, anything-goes approach, but they do need policies governing employee use and a strategy for corporate use, analysts say.

    In the next year, CIOs will get more involved, and “we’ll see companies writing policies and guidelines,” partly to protect workers, Dangson says. Businesses will also increase use of Facebook and Twitter for CRM, she predicts, saying CRM is “the most compelling business case for public social media sites where customers frequently voice their opinions on matters of everyday life, including the brands in which they interact.”

    Forrester analyst Augie Ray, who studies social marketing, says companies like Best Buy and Comcast are have done a good job interacting with customers on social sites. This is necessary in part because consumers’ attention has been distracted from traditional forms of advertising.

    “They’re embracing it because they have to,” Ray says. “Brands that do get it, understand that they can engage with and have a two-way dialogue with consumers.”

    Companies need a strategy that takes into account who their audience is and how they prefer to be reached, Ray says. Social media efforts can’t be half-baked. Starting a company Facebook page, putting a lot of effort into it up-front and then never updating it again is not effective marketing.

    Businesses should also have a plan for how to use social media in times of crisis, because Facebook and Twitter are often the most direct ways of reaching customers. The moment a public relations crisis happens is not the time you want to be asking the question “how will we respond?” Ray says.

    Companies looking to improve brand image via social marketing also need to be wary of the legitimate privacy concerns their customers may have. Marketers need to be transparent about what data they collect and how they are using it, Ray says.

    “As individuals become more concerned about information they’re giving up and how they’re using it, that’s going to have a big impact on companies,” he says. “There’s certainly some concern in the marketplace and government entities about use of marketing data. … Marketers just want to be fully transparent, which they haven’t always been.”

    Privacy and security concerns also have businesses wondering how they can use social networking to improve collaboration among internal employees, without exposing themselves to risk. Companies are wary of employees releasing sensitive information like layoffs and acquisitions.

    “The risk that comes with social media is how viral it is,” Dangson says. “It’s the risk of scale that can work both ways.”

    That’s why many businesses will opt to create their own internal social networks, which can be controlled and open only to employees, and perhaps to business partners.

    In 2010, you’re likely to hear the phrase “Facebook for the enterprise.” Salesforce.com recently announced “Chatter,” a social-networking application that is designed for internal business use but can also incorporate content from public social networking sites by taking advantage of the Facebook and Twitter APIs. Therefore, employees can receive in the same feed a mix of private content from their bosses and fellow employees, and public content from Facebook and Twitter that is related to their jobs.

    Bruce Francis, vice president of corporate strategy for Salesforce, says he doesn’t know anyone without a Facebook account. Eventually, he thinks employees will develop extensive corporate profiles as well, and relationships between the public and corporate profiles will develop.

    “The question we are asking everyone is ‘why is it you know more about strangers on Facebook than you do about your colleagues and employees?’” Francis says. “You know who has gone to the movies, but you don’t necessarily know about when one of your key sales reps has just visited a major account.”

    Even though many CIOs seem wary of social networking in the workplace, Francis is confident that IT executives will ultimately embrace the trend.

    “I think that every CIO is looking at what’s been going on with the rise of social networks like Twitter and Facebook,” Francis says. “Companies are wondering, ‘how can I capture that energy, that relevance, that better way of managing all the information that’s important to me, how can I capture that for my company?’”

    Just as in Facebook, Chatter allows people and applications to send users news in real time, but the security model will allow IT to determine what types of information employees can see. Salesforce believes this granular privacy control will help assuage concerns businesses have about the security of public social networking sites.

    There are also private alternatives to Twitter, such as a service called Yammer, which lets companies create streams available only to their own employees. New privacy controls for Facebook, which have been criticized by many users for making too much information public, may ultimately make it easier for people to present different information to business colleagues and personal contacts.

    “What companies are really asking for is a better way to collaborate,” Francis says.

    Follow Jon Brodkin on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/jbrodkin

    This story, “Facebook, Twitter becoming business tools, but CIOs remain wary,” was originally published at NetworkWorld.com. Follow the latest developments in social networking at Network World.

    // All contents copyright 1995-2010 Network World, Inc. http://www.networkworld.com

    Maybe It’s Time to Ask if You’re Getting Enough Out of All the Volunteer Work You Do for Biz & Ev and Mark

    By Simon Dumenco

    Published: January 11, 2010

    Facebook and Twitter are, of course, increasingly trying to prove that they can be real, self-sustaining businesses with meaningful revenues, and maybe even consistently positive cash flow. Good for them!

    ZUCKERBERG: Has his company really 'turned evil'?
    ZUCKERBERG: Has his company really ‘turned evil’?

    But what about the rest of us — the great unwashed masses of social-media addicts? What are we getting out of the deal?

    Before we get too far into this new decade, let’s pull back a second and ask: Are we all just toiling mightily to make a bunch of rich nerds (Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg and his employees and investors, Twitter’s Biz Stone and Evan Williams and their employees and investors) richer, while we impoverish ourselves?

    I’m not trying to be melodramatic here. For one thing, both Twitter and Facebook are demonstrably robbing us of our privacy — and the sole ownership of our own thoughts, emotions, personal expressions, etc. (Or, rather, we’re sitting back and allowing the theft to occur.) Last September in a column titled “Twitter: A Vampire That Can Legally Suck the Life Out of You,” I wrote that Twitter had made little-noticed changes to its TOS (Terms of Service) that give it the right to do whatever it wants with your tweets. Though you “retain your rights to any Content you submit, post or display on or through the Services,” that’s merely a technicality, because if you use Twitter you’re automatically giving it “a worldwide, nonexclusive, royalty-free license (with the right to sublicense) to use, copy, reproduce, process, adapt, modify, publish, transmit, display and distribute such Content in any and all media or distribution methods (now known or later developed).” And sure enough, after my column was published, Twitter ended up doing deals to license its data stream — your and my tweets — to Google and Bing for their search engines.

    Meanwhile, Facebook got all sneaky with its TOS at the end of the year. If you haven’t yet read Ryan Tate’s Dec. 14 Valleywag post titled “Facebook’s Great Betrayal,” it’s a great place to start to understand how Facebook suddenly changed its business relationship with you. “Facebook’s privacy pullback isn’t just outrageous,” Tate begins, “it’s a landmark turning point for the social network. … The company has, in short, turned evil.”

    But privacy isn’t all we’re giving away.

    As of this writing, Twitter has just 156 employees. Facebook currently says it has “1,000+” employees — a shockingly tiny work force for a site with 350 million active users. Neither company needs a lot of warm bodies because you and I are doing most of the work: perpetually creating and uploading vast amounts of fresh content that Twitter and Facebook can do with as they please.

    Think of these companies as the Walmarts of the 21st century — behemoths that steamroller American (and global) culture, radically reconfigure communities big and small, and take share from everyone else (in their case, media mindshare) — only they have an almost all-volunteer work force. And you’re one of the volunteers.

    Now, depending on what business you’re in, maybe you’re fine with that. If you’re a brand marketer, chances are good that you’re extracting real value from investing time and energy in social media (and you’re happy to have consumers volunteering their time to be your “brand ambassadors” or whatever you want to call them); good for you. (And if you’re a consumer who gets off on connecting with big brands — or just wants to interface with customer service in a forum, like Twitter, where certain marketers seem to be hyper-responsive — well, good for you too.) In general, if you’re soft-selling something — like content or an idea — that can benefit from free publicity, Facebook and Twitter are your friends. Even if, well, they’re the two-faced sort who think nothing of riffling through your handbag or backpack when you get up to go the bathroom — you know, glad-handing “friends” (those are air quotes) who are obviously using you for something, only it’s not always entirely clear what.

    For my part, I’ve made a point of never posting anything particularly personal on Facebook, and you won’t find out where I am or what I’m doing from my Twitter feed. I mostly just tweet links to things I’m reading that I’m happy to share with my followers, and I also tweet links when I publish new columns and stuff. My Twitter ROI — the return I get on the time I invest in tweeting — feels like it’s worth it. For one thing, because I track in-bound links to my column on Bit.ly, I know that I’ve gotten literally tens of thousands of additional page views to my column and its offshoots, thanks to readers tweeting and retweeting links. So, thank you, Twitter.

    But what if you’re not in the business of selling content or a “personal brand” or whatnot? What’s the payoff then? All that time and energy spent making virtual connections with friends and strangers, tweeting ephemera, tagging pictures, etc. — does the, say, entertainment value or networking/emotional benefit (e.g., getting to feel “connected”) outweigh the opportunity cost (i.e., if you spend 20 hours a month on Facebook, what could you do with those 20 hours instead)?

    I’ve said this before, but I’ll say it again here: Is your time better spent communicating with the people you’re not with than communicating with the people you’re actually with? In short, how do you figure out the tipping point at which you’re doing more for Facebook and Twitter — doing, basically, pro bono work to make paper billionaires even richer — than Facebook and Twitter are doing for you?

    I leave you to do your own personal math.

    ~ ~ ~
    Simon Dumenco is the “Media Guy” media columnist for Advertising Age. You can follow him on Twitter @simondumenco

    Posted by: Patrick | January 13, 2010

    AdAge: Sarah Palin Does Well in Day One at Fox News

    Media Reviews for Media People: Sarah Palin, Fox News Contributor

    By Larry Dobrow

    Published: January 13, 2010

    Let’s get the partisan stuff out of the way: Sarah Palin is shrewd, stylish and skilled. No, she’s turbo-dumb and majestically uninformed. Wait, she’s a media visionary blessed with an innate ability to frame the day’s pressing issues in a way that both Joe the Plumber and Alec the Baldwin can comprehend. No, she’s a menace who diminishes the intellectual standing of western civilization every time she opens her mouth. Actually, she embodies the American Dream, having worked her way up the socioeconomic and professional ladders by dint of hard work. No, she embodies the American Dream, in that she has achieved a level of fame incommensurate with her ability and appeal.

    Within the context of her limited initial role, Palin exceeded expectations.
    Within the context of her limited initial role, Palin exceeded expectations.

    There. Now we can get around to a subject about which it might be possible to engage in respectful debate: Namely, whether the first appearance of Sarah Palin on Fox News Channel as a paid analyst heralds the arrival of a telegenic natural star or the coming of the sixth horsewoman of the media apocalypse (if the stars of “The View” were the first five).

    I thought Palin did nicely. Say what you want about her syntactical shimmies or tendency to lapse into campaigny monologues — the camera digs her, which gives her an advantage over some rigorous-thinking but grooming-resistant wonks of cable news. Also, unlike the myriad smart-because-they-say-they-are commentators fanned out across the dial, Palin has long since established her bona fides with her audience — which, coincidentally, just happens to overlap with Fox News’ viewership. In the parlance of a business of a distinctly different kind, Sarah Palin arrives at Fox as a made woman.

    Over the course of her 14 on-air minutes, Palin wasn’t asked to steer the conversation, work the telestrator or engage in parry-and-thrust with an ideological adversary like Nancy Pelosi. Instead, she was asked a rat-a-tat series of questions by Bill O’Reilly that basically boiled down to “What would you do?” — about President Obama’s sputtering poll numbers, about Sen. Reid’s poor choice of language and about Iran. She answered them well enough, even if she insisted on pounding the “America doesn’t care about that kind of [media] crap” drum as if being paid by the beat.

    Palin had clearly been tipped in advance to O’Reilly’s lines of interrogation, but this hardly makes her unique in the cable-news world; It’s not like David Gergen shows up at CNN unsure whether he’ll be asked about spearfishing or corruption in the Bersculoni administration.

    Within the context of her limited initial role, Palin exceeded expectations. She commanded my attention. That’s plenty.

    If I have a concern about Palin the Pundit, it’s this: You can only glean so much from her comments on the day’s top political stories, because much of the time she is the story. She’s been the story from the moment John McCain plucked her out of snowplow obscurity, and will stay the story as long as she remains the human flashpoint in the liberal/conservative yelp war.

    Thus Palin can’t really come across as anything other than another politician with an agenda, which, to be fair, was her job description until recently. Any time she answers a question, her response will be framed in the context of a possible 2012 presidential bid. Unless, and until this changes — she’s set to host periodic episodes of “Real American Life,” a new Fox News Channel series that will explore real-life stories about overcoming adversity — Palin’s every utterance will feel like a rough draft of a stump speech. She’ll be less an analyst than a news-maker, which could pose a headache before too long.

    The bottom line? If you believe Sarah Palin is Ronald Reagan in sensible shoes, you’re going to adore her every plain-talkin’-about-that-there-thing segment. If you regard Sarah Palin as a potential reason to apply for dual Canadian citizenship, you’re going to be vexed by them. You like her or you don’t, just as you like the way Fox News goes about its business or you don’t. There’s no middle ground here.

    Posted by: Patrick | January 14, 2010

    Forbes.com: Republican’s Tweet Revenge? Say What?!

    Forbes.com

    Twittering Politicians
    Republican’s Tweet Revenge
    Taylor Buley, 01.13.10, 4:50 PM ETBurlingame, Calif. –

    Compared with Barack Obama’s campaign romance with social networking technologies like Twitter, Republican presidential hopeful John McCain was quite the luddite. His sending of telegrams likely didn’t help the senator gain any tech-savvy street cred.

    Since the campaign ended, the technological tables appear to have turned. According to a new study being released Thursday, Republican Congressmen are much more active on Twitter than their Democratic counterparts. And the member of Congress with the largest number of followers on Twitter? None other than Arizona Sen. John McCain. No one in Congress comes close to McCain’s million-strong following.

    Political revenge can be so tweet.

    The mashup study, “Twongress: The Power of Twitter in Congress,” is authored by Mark Senak, a policy wonk at public relations firm Fleishman Hillard. It profiles the behavior of politicians in both the House and Senate. Senak cross-referenced active members of Congress identified by SourceWatch as having Twitter accounts with a free Twitter analysis tool called Twitalyzer that measures things like authority and influence.

    The research showed that in the House of Representatives, Republicans are far more prolific, sending out 29,162 Tweets through early January, five times as many micro messages as their Democratic counterparts. In the Senate, Republicans’ 6,310 tweets outnumber Democrats’ by a far smaller 35% margin.

    Because Republican Congressmen tweet more often, more people subscribe, or “follow,” their Twitter feeds. Thanks in part to lots of Twitter activity from groups like Top Conservatives On Twitter (TCOT), Republicans occupy 18 of the top 20 spots in terms of followers on Twitter. Republicans “follow” people back, too–or at least more than Democrats. The study says they subscribe to more people’s feeds by a factor of 10.

    Author Senak theorizes that the shift toward Republican twittering is more a reflection of the fact that Republicans have had to become more resourceful and inventive in the way they communicate with constituents and media than it is of any big cultural sea change on either side of the aisle. One other possibility: marginalized Republicans are looking to commiserate with other conservatives.

    South Carolina Republican Sen. Jim DeMint had the most clout and influence in the Senate, according to Twitalyzer. In the House, Ohio Congressman John Boehner had the most followers, and Florida representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen led in overall clout and influence.

    The study’s sample is small, since not every member of Congress is on Twitter and not all those on Twitter are active enough to be analyzed. But the data suggest–even if somewhat unscientifically–that while all politicians are good at keeping on message, if that message is a tweet, it’s most likely from a Republican.

    To read more of Taylor Buley’s stories, click here. Contact the writer at tbuley@forbes.com.

    Posted by: Patrick | January 19, 2010

    NYTimes: The Pragmatic Leviathan

    January 19, 2010
    Op-Ed Columnist

    When I was in college, I was assigned “Leviathan,” by Thomas Hobbes. On the cover was an image from the first edition of the book, published in 1651. It shows the British nation as a large man. The people make up the muscles and flesh. Then at the top, there is the king, who is the head and the mind.

    When the Pilgrims left Britain to come to America, they left behind that metaphor as well. For these settlers, and the immigrants who have come since, the American nation is not a body with the government as the brain. Instead, America has been defined by its vast landscape and the sprawling energy of its entrepreneurs, scientists and community-builders.

    In times of crisis, Americans rally around their government, but most of the time they have treated it as a supporting actor in national life. Americans are an unusual people, with less deference to central authority and an unparalleled faith in themselves. They seem to want a government that is helpful but not imperious, strong but subordinate.

    Over the years, American voters have reacted against any party that threatens that basic sense of proportion. They have reacted against a liberalism that sought an enlarged and corrosive government and a conservatism that threatened to dismantle the government’s supportive role.

    A year ago, the country rallied behind a new president who promised to end the pendulumlike swings, who seemed likely to restore equilibrium with his moderate temper and pragmatic mind.

    In many ways, Barack Obama has lived up to his promise. He has created a thoughtful, pragmatic administration marked by a culture of honest and vigorous debate. When Obama makes a decision, you can be sure that he has heard and accounted for every opposing argument. If he senses an important viewpoint is not represented at a meeting, he will stop the proceedings and demand that it gets included.

    If the evidence leads him in directions he finds uncomfortable, he will still follow the evidence. He is beholden to no ideological camp, and there is no group in his political base that he has not angered at some point in his first year.

    But his has become a voracious pragmatism. Driven by circumstances and self-confidence, the president has made himself the star performer in the national drama. He has been ubiquitous, appearing everywhere, trying to overhaul most sectors of national life: finance, health, energy, automobiles and transportation, housing, and education, among others.

    He is no ideologue, but over the past year he has come to seem like the sovereign on the cover of “Leviathan” — the brain of the nation to which all the cells in the body and the nervous system must report and defer.

    Americans, with their deep, vestigial sense of proportion, have reacted. The crucial movement came between April and June, when the president’s approval rating among independents fell by 15 percentage points and the percentage of independents who regarded him as liberal or very liberal rose by 18 points. Since then, the public has rejected any effort to centralize authority or increase the role of government.

    Trust in government has fallen. The share of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track has risen. The share who call themselves conservative has risen. The share who believe government is “doing too many things better left to business” has risen.

    The country is now split on Obama, because he is temperate, thoughtful and pragmatic, but his policies are almost all unpopular. If you aggregate the last seven polls on health care reform, 41 percent support it and 51 percent oppose.

    Many Democrats, as always, are caught in their insular liberal information loop. They think the polls are bad simply because the economy is bad. They tell each other health care is unpopular because the people aren’t sophisticated enough to understand it. Some believe they can still pass health care even if their candidate, Martha Coakley, loses the Senate race in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

    That, of course, would be political suicide. It would be the act of a party so arrogant, elitist and contemptuous of popular wisdom that it would not deserve to govern. Marie Antoinette would applaud, but voters would rage.

    The American people are not always right, but their basic sense of equilibrium is worthy of the profoundest respect. President Obama has shown himself to be a fine administrator, but he erred in trying to make himself the irreplaceable man in nearly ever sphere of public life. He erred in not sensing that even a pragmatic government could seem imperious and alarming.

    If I were President Obama, I would spend the next year showing how government can serve a humble, helpful and supportive role to the central institutions of American life. Even in blue states like Massachusetts, voters want a government that is energetic but limited — a servant, not a leviathan.

    Posted by: Patrick | January 26, 2010

    Washington Post: How GOP won the Internet

    Pray tell that National GOP Leadership will “drink the social media kool-aid” by the gallon. The Party needs it much more from a voter listening and conversation technology as much as they do for fundraising and content (message) syndication.  Relevancy through voter conversation is key…

    washingtonpost.com

    How Republicans won the Internet
    By Mindy Finn and Patrick Ruffini
    Sunday, January 24, 2010;

    Scott Brown’s supporters became fans of the candidate on Facebook, where they commented on his status updates and uploaded their own photos. The Republican Senate hopeful took to Twitter, using the #masen hashtag to let his followers know how the race was going. His campaign powered its field operation through targeted online ads and Web-based spreadsheets, and raised $12 million from 157,000 individual donations in the last two weeks of the race. After he won last week, his team live-streamed the election-night party in Boston online.

    Democratic candidates don’t have a monopoly on online organizing anymore. Brown and his campaign staffers deserve the credit for proving this, but it’s a reason to celebrate for us and our new-media colleagues, too — we’ve been working to get the GOP into the Web era for the past decade. We’ve been laughed out of high-level campaign meetings, told that online budgets are the first thing to go and informed that having a Facebook page is “unpresidential.” And it wasn’t until recently that people stopped asking us to fix their computers.

    But we’ve always had faith that the rightroots could organize for victory, as the netroots had on the left. It just needed some nurturing. And now that it’s launched Sen.-elect Brown in Massachusetts, the online-organizing playing field is more even than it’s ever been in the past 10 years of American politics.

    From the beginning of the race, Brown’s campaign knew its candidate was a long shot. To have any hope, his team needed to get his message directly to voters. This populist approach — and the hope for a 41st Senate vote against the Democrats’ health-care overhaul — inspired the rightroots to latch onto Brown’s campaign through blogs, Facebook and Twitter. This paid off in an overflow of volunteers and contributors from across the country and a nearly five-point victory.

    It’s not as though GOP organizers woke up last fall and realized they’d better learn to use this Internet thing. Our party is out of power — and the party out of power has the stronger incentive to innovate. If it doesn’t, the base will. Netroots protests dragged the Democratic Party into the 21st century kicking and screaming in 2006 and 2008. Frustrated with the president and health-care reform, the conservative “tea party” movement has done the same for the Republicans in the past year.

    Howard Dean ran the first hair-raising netroots campaign in 2004. The former Vermont governor didn’t secure the Democratic presidential nomination, but his online strategy emboldened his party. Democrats embraced meet-ups. They came to rely on Internet contributions, and they kicked off 2005 with a 50-state strategy and a score of new new-media institutions. They were mad as hell and they weren’t going to take it anymore; it was time to use the most effective tool available to overtake the Republicans. The Internet was and is that medium.

    Meanwhile, Republicans appeared way behind the times. It’s not that the GOP is any less capable of using technology than the Democrats are. It was just that during the years that the netroots really took off — 2004 to 2008 — Republicans were not angry enough (or desperate enough) to use all the weapons in their arsenal. A single, unifying outrage, like the Democrats’ opposition to the Iraq war and to President George W. Bush, was missing.

    We tried. We explained how important it was to reach voters where they are. But lockstep support for White House policies does not inspire a national political movement.

    Now, of course, the White House belongs to a different party. And we didn’t have to wait for 2010 or 2012 to take action. There was a governor’s race in Virginia and another in New Jersey last fall — and then the Massachusetts special election. In those contests, Republican candidates thoroughly embraced Web tools and ran circles around the opposition online — and it paid off.

    Before the GOP’s recent grass-roots revival, top-down thinking was on full display in many campaigns for which we worked. Even after the Obama campaign’s initial success online in 2008, Republican staffers responded to our calls for a movement-based approach with a dismissive tone. “We don’t care about building a base,” said one. “We care about raising money.”

    Even among the GOP consultants and top strategists who paid lip service to the Internet, it was, to many of them, simply another avenue for executing a dusty playbook, written in a different era. In many campaigns, even today, there’s an unspoken assumption that though Facebook, Twitter and a Web site are necessary, they also are not terribly consequential (except as online ATM machines). The “real” work of politics goes on behind closed doors, in fundraisers, where progress is measured in increments of $2,400.

    Recently, these traditional impulses have reasserted themselves — in the Democratic Party. When San Francisco’s Twittering mayor, Gavin Newsom, withdrew from the California governor’s race last October, political strategists charged that it was because he had placed too much emphasis on new media. Newsom’s former top strategist, Garry South, scoffed that “the Newsom campaign was living proof that you cannot depend entirely or mostly on the Internet or social-networking sites to run a competitive campaign at this level.” Translation: Web geeks should just buzz off and leave the real work to the adults with Rolodexes.

    South’s statement betrays the defensive mentality of the consultant class, which raises the straw man of Internet-obsessed campaigns (no rational person we know would suggest Facebook as the only tool a campaign should use) while advocating a narrow strategy that spends 70 percent or more of a campaign’s budget on a single medium, television.

    That kind of thinking has already been proved wrong. As GOP campaigns struggled to enter the 21st century — even well into its first decade — the Obama team built an agile online machine. The results spoke for themselves: $500 million raised online, a 13 million-address e-mail list and 3 million text-message subscribers collected thanks to a clever gambit to announce Barack Obama’s vice presidential pick via text. When McCain staffers advocated a similar approach, they were told that the impact of a vice presidential announcement could be maximized only through a television event.

    In the wake of the 2008 election, after four years of aloofness from most of our party’s leaders about the role of new media and technology in electoral politics, we took a break from the day to day of campaigns and thought seriously about how to help our party move forward.

    We outlined a strategy; it had a lot to do with technology, but it wasn’t just about social networking, e-mail list management or YouTube. We talked about decentralizing the GOP and running a candidate in all 435 congressional districts. That got us some bewildered reactions: I thought this was about the Internet — what’s this about running in every district?

    Such responses revealed a mind-set that for too long has prevented the party from innovating: wedded to the status quo and out of touch with the American experience. (One could draw parallels to the policy front as well.)

    The Internet isn’t a line item in a campaign budget anymore. It’s not just something you have to pay for, underneath catering and radio ads. It has reorganized the way Americans do everything — including elect their leaders. Candidates who would have had no chance before the Internet can now overcome huge odds, with the people they energize serving as the backbone of their campaign.

    We don’t have it all figured out. Like the technology companies whose products we rely on, the only way forward is to innovate constantly. Campaigns must continually update their playbooks.

    But our party seems finally to be catching up — just in time for 2010 and 2012.

    Mindy Finn and Patrick Ruffini are partners at Engage, an online political consulting firm in Washington. They worked on Bob McDonnell’s campaign for governor in Virginia, and their company provided fundraising technology to Scott Brown’s Senate campaign. They will be online to chat with readers on Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.

    © 2010 The Washington Post Company

    Posted by: Patrick | February 1, 2010

    WeeklyStandard.com: Barack Obama’s no Bill Clinton

    

    Published on The Weekly Standard (http://www.weeklystandard.com)

    The Ideologue

    Barack Obama’s no Bill Clinton.

    BY Fred Barnes

    February 8, 2010, Vol. 15, No. 20

    President Obama’s greatest need is to escape the ideological grip of congressional Democrats and the liberal base of the Democratic party (they’re one and the same). But he either doesn’t recognize this or, as a conventional liberal himself, isn’t so inclined. This self-inflicted difficulty has put Obama in worse political straits than President Clinton faced after the Republican landslide of 1994.

    Certainly there was nothing in Obama’s State of the Union address last week to indicate he understands the fix he’s in or has devised a credible way to get out of it. His message, though he didn’t put it in quite these words, was that he’d rather fight for unpopular liberal policies than switch to broadly appealing centrist ones.

    A bad omen for Obama and Democrats was the pleased-as-punch response of Capitol Hill’s top Republican, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. “It makes my job a little easier than if he were moving to the middle and picking up people,” McConnell says. “I naïvely thought he was going to do a course correction.”

    McConnell characterizes the Obama strategy as: “Ignore the public, we know what’s best, full speed ahead.” The practical effect is to yield the political high ground to Republicans. “He can call us the party of no till he’s blue in the face,” McConnell says. “It depends on what you’re saying no to.”

    When the president had lunch with television anchors at the White House the day of the speech, he minimized his political distress. Were the rate of unemployment two points lower, he’d be in fine shape, Obama suggested. That’s probably true. And if pigs had wings they could fly.

    Since the Republican Senate victory in Massachusetts on January 19 and the collapse of Obama’s domestic agenda, the parallels between Obama now and Clinton in 1994 have come into sharp focus. The president, by the way, told the anchors Republican Scott Brown won because he was the better candidate, not because he made opposition to Obama’s policies the centerpiece of his campaign.

    To save his presidency after his stiff rebuff in the midterm elections, Clinton lurched to the political center. He adopted a strategy of “triangulation” that involved painful compromises with Republicans, who had captured the House and Senate. It worked. Clinton glided to reelection in 1996, defeating Republican Bob Dole by 7 points.

    Though it’s rarely acknowledged, Clinton’s most significant successes in the White House were all in conjunction with Republicans: the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993, welfare reform in 1996, and balanced budget legislation in 1997 that included a cut in the capital gains tax rate from 28 percent to 20 percent that spurred the financial boom and budget surplus of his second term.

    For Clinton, creating daylight between his presidency and liberal Democrats was easy. They hadn’t been responsible for his election in 1992, nor was he ideologically tethered to them. In Obama’s case, separating himself would be hard. The liberal base was instrumental in his election, controls both houses of Congress, and may retain its majority after the 2010 midterms as well. As a politician, Obama is a creature of modern liberalism.

    Even if Obama wanted to, it would be awkward for him to negotiate legislative deals with Republicans while liberal Democrats control Congress. And it would be regarded as a betrayal if he vetoed a Democratic bill. I can’t recall a recent example of a president vetoing a measure passed by his own party. Obama’s veto threats in the State of the Union weren’t taken seriously by Democrats or Republicans.

    At the core of Obama’s trouble is a misreading of the 2008 election. He and Democratic liberals interpreted it as a mandate for an era of liberal lawmaking and governance in a newly minted center-left America. And they set out to create that era with sweeping initiatives on health care, energy and the environment, and the economy.

    They were wrong, as everyone but the most unswerving or fogbound liberal now understands. America is a center-right country politically and has been for decades. Pushing a liberal agenda for a year has cost Obama dearly. His public approval has fallen at a record rate (for a first-year president), and so has support for his policies.

    He is clinging to the one advantage his party retains, its strength in Congress. “To Democrats, I would remind you that we still have the largest majority in decades and the people expect us to solve some problems, not run for the hills,” Obama declared in the speech. Sorry, Mr. President, but dozens of Democrats in Republican-leaning districts or red states are already in full flight, either deciding to retire or abandoning your agenda.

    Obama is giving aid and comfort to the Republican counterstrategy. As in 1994, Republicans say they’re ready to cooperate with the president when they can, oppose him when they can’t. So McConnell, for one, is willing to go along with Obama’s puny budget freeze. But Obama hasn’t offered Republicans much else that might be risky to oppose.

    To salvage Obamacare, Democrats buttonholed several Republican senators last week with schemes for tweaking the bill. The senators declined to negotiate, telling the Democrats,  “Call McConnell.” Under McConnell’s leadership, Senate Republicans are united in preferring to start over, from scratch, on health care reform. So far, McConnell hasn’t gotten a call from the White House or any Democrat.

    To boost his recovery after the Republican landslide of 1994, Clinton found a useful foil, the new House speaker, Newt Gingrich. When Gingrich overreached, Clinton was the beneficiary. Obama desperately needs a foil, but his attempts to turn McConnell and Republicans into one have failed. Instead, he’s become their foil.

    Let’s give Obama credit for intellectual honesty. He believes in his agenda. Speaking at a House Republican retreat in Baltimore last week, Obama insisted, “I am not an ideologue.”  But he sure can pass for one. And despite his travails, Obama brims with self-confidence. He told Democrat Marion Berry of Arkansas, a seven-term House member, that Democrats today have a unique advantage they lacked in 1994—“me.” Berry doesn’t agree. He’s retiring.

    Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.

    House Dem Claims Ryan Plan Would Send Economy Into Ditch, CBO Disagrees

    By on 2.5.10 @ 12:08PM

    Ever since his back and forth with President Obama during last week’s question time at the Republican retreat, Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future” has been gaining attention as a plan that the Congressional Budget Office has projected would actually solve our nation’s long-term entitlement crisis.  As a result, Democrats are seeing it as a new opportunity to attack Republicans for trying to destroy the nation’s safety net.

    Ryan’s ambitious proposal would represent a comprehensive overhaul of our nation’s finances. While preserving Medicare for those over 55, everybody else would get a voucher upon retirement, which would have a higher value for sicker and poorer retirees. The Social Security system would allow younger workers the option of investing a portion of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.  The health care system would move to a consumer-based one by ending the tax exclusion for employer-based health insurance and giving individuals a tax credit instead. The proposal would also change the tax system, giving Americans the option of choosing a new simplified tax code with just two brackets and no deductions (other than the individual health care tax credit). It also eliminates the corporate tax and replaces it with a lower business consumption tax.

    After a year of portraying Republicans as the party of “no,” Democrats are now seizing on the Ryan plan as a way to reframe November’s election along traditional lines – with Democrats as the party that will protect entitlements from being cut by Republicans.

    “That’s their budget plan,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen told Talking Points Memo of the Ryan proposal. “He’s the ranking Republican member on the Budget Committee. That is their so-called roadmap. And it’s a roadmap right into the economic ditch that we got ourselves to begin with.”

    I plan to write more about Ryan’s “Roadmap” and the broader debate, but I thought I’d quickly point out that far from leading us into the ditch, the CBO projects that the proposal would dramatically improve our nation’s economic outlook relative to current trends (known as CBO’s “alternative fiscal scenario”).

    “The lower budget deficits under your proposal would result in much less federal debt than under the alternative fiscal scenario and thereby a much more favorable macroeconomic outlook,” CBO writes in page 14 of its analysis of the Ryan plan.

    CBO projects “real gross national product per person would be about 70 percent higher in 2058 under the proposal.” But after 2058, the CBO’s model completely breaks down when trying to project current trends, “because deficits become so large and unsustainable that the model cannot calculate their effects.” By contrast, the model shows the Ryan plan continuing to achieve economic growth in the decades that follow. This is demonstrated by the CBO chart below.

    The one thing that’s certain to drive our economy into the ditch is continuing policies that shield entitlements from any meaningful reform.

    Philip Klein is The American Spectator‘s Washington correspondent.

    Posted by: Patrick | February 11, 2010

    Forbes.com: Obama Plays Conciliator-In-Chief

    I happen to believe that while this may be a good political strategy for Obama, he can’t sustain it because all of his political instincts and tendencies still lean left.  As a result, his “inauthenticity” will be perceived by the voting public louder than his words.  Clinton was a political realist when he learned to accommodate the emergence of Republicans in 1994.  Obama still believes that he can stem the tide of losses amongst independents by talking centrist, while having no real capacity within himself, his staff or the Democratic leadership to govern from there.  What say you??
    Forbes.com

    The Way We’ll Be
    Obama Plays Conciliator-In-Chief
    John Zogby 02.11.10, 12:01 AM ET

    As he campaigned for the presidency Barack Obama offered himself as a conciliator, and voters responded favorably. But one year into office, public anger has grown, and Obama is still pleading with Republicans and Democrats to get along.

    Democrats on the left are frustrated that Obama continues to reach out to Republicans when it seems obvious to them that the GOP’s plan is to obstruct every initiative. Republicans on the right don’t trust Obama and believe all his talk about cooperation is just cover for his plans to promote a socialist agenda. Obama’s continued appeals to bipartisanship aren’t aimed at either extreme. He is talking to voters in the middle and hoping to maintain their trust in him, and our polling shows he may be having some success.

    Obama effectively used his State of the Union address to call for an end to “the tired old battles” that divide the nation. He challenged his own party “not to run for the hills” after losing a filibuster-proof Senate majority and told Republicans that now that they have 41 votes in the Senate, “the responsibility to govern is now yours as well.”

    Obama followed that by meeting with the House Republican caucus. Both aired their grievances and disagreements, but having the president publicly meet with the opposition party may have been more important to voters than the content of the dialogue.

    Obama met again with Republican leaders on Feb. 9, and next up is a televised Feb. 25 bipartisan summit on health care reform where both parties and Obama can present their ideas.

    Our latest Zogby Interactive poll (Jan. 29-Feb. 1) asking about Obama came after the State of the Union and his meeting with House Republicans. His approval rating hit 50% for the first time since last September. Among independents his approval bounced from 36% at the end of 2009 to 45%.

    Another interactive poll in the first week of February asked whether voters believed Obama was being sincere about wanting to work with both parties to find solutions. By 53%-46% voters agreed that Obama was sincere about bipartisanship. The question measured agreement-disagreement on a four-point scale and found voters much more divided than the overall result seems to show. Forty-one percent strongly agreed Obama was sincere, and 39% strongly disagreed he was not.

    It wasn’t just Republicans and Democrats who took the more extreme positions. By a 52%-39% margin, independents agreed Obama is sincere about working with both parties, but three-quarters agreed or disagreed strongly.

    We also asked voters to compare Obama and his two predecessors on the same question. Obama was seen as more sincere about being bipartisan than George W. Bush, 49%-38%. However, Bill Clinton was chosen over Obama, 42%-33%.


    Why would a President whom a Republican House majority impeached be seen as more bipartisan than Obama? Clinton emphasized repeatedly that he was not a liberal. But so has Obama, including when he specifically told the House Republicans “I am not an ideologue.”

    Clinton had eight years to show he was not an ideologue, and a Congress that still had a working core of moderates in both parties willing to make deals. After passing welfare reform and failing at health care reform, Clinton went for small-bore initiatives that looked good when the economy was strong and the nation was not at war.

    Today there are few, if any, moderates among Congressional Republicans and not as many among Democrats as there were in the 1990s. Obama inherited a deep recession, huge debt and two wars. He had to stem the banking crisis with government money, and he chose to take on health care. And as much as we might like to not see race as a factor, Obama is still the first African-American President.

    Obama governs in a hyperpolarized time, so he must continue to be seen by moderate voters as the leader standing above the fray trying to bring both parties together for the public good. Fortunately for him, Obama is very good in that role; and that will make him a very formidable candidate in 2012, even if the economy has not fully recovered.

    There is also a more immediate strategy in dialogue with Republicans: passing health care reform and a jobs bill. Now that Republicans have proven they can stop anything in the Senate, Obama is telling them that they must now share in governance. Our most recent interactive poll found voters split at 49%-49% on whether Congress should finish the process and pass health care reform. Among moderate independents, 55% want the process to go on.

    By bringing them to the table Obama is forcing Republicans to present their health care proposals. If Democrats accept some of these, the Republicans will look like obstructionists if they continue to use their 41 Senate votes and block an up or down vote on final legislation. Also, going the extra step of meeting publicly with Republicans could make it easier for Democrats to use budget reconciliation rules and pass much of their health care bill with a simple majority in the Senate.

    As for a jobs bill, Republicans know that voter anger is aimed at all incumbents, and failing to act on people’s central concern will be bad for them as well.

    Since last August all of the momentum has been with Republicans. Obama is hoping that being seen as the conciliator-in-chief will change that dynamic. Stay tuned.

    John Zogby is president and CEO of Zogby International and the author of The Way We’ll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream. He writes a weekly column for Forbes .

    By Jeff Sexton
    Published February 11, 2010

    Let’s be honest, you don’t just want your voice to be added to the conversation; you want your voice to be heard, repeated, and valued—and your message to be influential. Ultimately, you’re after influence.

    So what better way to understand social media than by looking at the fundamental principles of influence as taught by Dr. Robert Cialdini, professor of psychology and marketing at Arizona State University? In his seminal book, Influence, Cialdini covers six “weapons of influence” that are hardwired into our social and cognitive minds. In other words, we can’t help but behave in accordance with these laws of social interaction.

    Does this sound like something useful to keep in mind during your social media engagements? Well, let’s take a look six powerful persuasion techniques:
    1. Reciprocation
    Influence

    In Cialdini’s words, the rule for reciprocation “says that we should try to repay, in kind, what another person has provided us. If a woman does us a favor, we should do her one in return; if a man sends us a birthday present, we should remember his birthday with a gift of our own; if a couple invites us to a party, we should be sure to invite them to one of ours.”

    And so it is in social media: we’re more likely to retweet someone who has already retweeted us. We link to people who have linked to us. And we tend to give a business far more trust after it has provided us with a lot of free value.

    Used manipulatively, this turns into autofollow bots that help you amass thousands of followers in a breathtakingly short time—none of whom may actually care what you have to say. Doh!

    Used more positively and constructively, if you focus on initiating reciprocity by providing no-strings-attached value to those in your network, you’ll ultimately wield far more influence. Not because the gift economy is a new fad in marketing, but because following the law of reciprocity is how we’re wired as humans.
    2. Commitment and Consistency

    “Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that commitment. Those pressures will cause us to respond in ways that justify our earlier decision,” said Cialdini.

    Chances are, you follow too many people on Twitter. And you’re signed up for more RSS feeds and newsletters than you can really read. Objectively, purging your list of followers and unsubscribing would eliminate distractions and increase your social media signal-to-noise ratio.

    But most people never make that purge and hardly ever unsubscribe. Part of it goes back to reciprocation, but a larger part stems from consistency: you’re loath to admit that following and subscribing to those people and newsletters was a mistake.

    On the positive side, how much more likely are you to comment on a blog that you’ve already commented on before? Especially if you’re now “signed in” to comment on the blog during future visits—and if your Gravatar or Disqus headshot shows up next to the comments?

    According to the principle of consistency, you’ll want to remind people of their previous positive commitments through perks, public displays, an elimination of friction for increasing their commitment, etc. It works for Amazon prime, Amazon’s 1-click ordering, and Amazon’s reviewer system, and it will work for fostering blog comments and a blog community, too.
    3. Social Proof

    One method we use to determine correct behavior is to find out what other people think is correct. We view a behavior as more correct in a given situation to the degree that we see others performing it.

    Just watch this video to see this in action!

    Whether we admit it or not, most of us are impressed when someone has a ton of blog subscribers, Twitter followers, YouTube views, multiple blog reviews for their upcoming book, and so on.

    Yes, people can game the system (autofollows and such), which can jade our intellectual response, but our core and initial emotional reactions stay the same.

    On the positive side, creating a lot of value for others can help companies and individuals gain social proof via reciprocation: writing engaging content for guest posts, offering to interview authors and subject matter experts, and so forth. Not only do these activities provide social proof in themselves, but they can help you gain a support network capable of “salting” your blog comments, your retweets, etc.

    And when it comes to social proof, tribes matter. It’s not just about what the mass of people are doing on social media that constitutes proof, it’s what other like-minded people and peers are doing. So according to the principle of “social proof,” you should concentrate your social media efforts on finding and building social proof within your tribe.
    4. Liking

    “We most prefer to say yes to people we know and like,” says Cialdini. Extensions of this principle are:

    1. Physical attractiveness creates a halo effect and typically invokes the principle of liking;
    2. We like people who are similar to us;
    3. We like people who compliment us;
    4. We like things that are familiar to us;
    5. Cooperation toward joint efforts inspires increased liking;
    6. An innocent association with either bad or good things will influence how people feel about us.

    How does this work for social media? Well, to start with the virtual equivalent of physical attractiveness, we give extra credence to attractively designed blogs, messages contained in videos with higher production quality, and corporations’ landing pages displaying a better sense of social media savvy in their overall design and layout.

    Similarly, individuals involved in coordinating joint ventures for the common good are associated with—and therefore “haloed” by—those efforts, while at the same time invoking cooperation toward a joint effort, which further increases “liking.” Think of Seth Godin’s efforts at compiling free and thoughtful ebooks and then using the compilation to raise funds for a non-profit. Bryan Eisenberg’s Trick or Tweet efforts from a year ago also come to mind.

    As for complimenting others, what else is a retweet, a trackback, or a positive blog comment than a social compliment? And yes, those are all activities you should participate in authentically, sincerely, and liberally if you wish to leverage the principle of liking to your advantage.
    5. Authority

    Cialdini talks about “The extreme willingness of adults to go to almost any lengths on the command of authority…” In his book, he examines how authority can be conferred by (and also manufactured by) titles, clothes, and trappings.

    In social media, authority is less about titles and clothes than about virtual trappings. In his (fantastic) report, “Authority Rules,” Brian Clark talks about how perceived expertise can frequently differ from real expertise. Meaning that the guy known for blogging about and offering intelligent commentary on a subject will likely have far more perceived expertise (and therefore influence as an authority) than a genuine but unknown non-blogging expert.

    But perhaps the most direct measure of authority is the number of people who will buy or download a recommended resource based on little more than an authority’s endorsement. How many people would buy a copywriting book simply because Brian Clark said it’s a must-read? How many people will download a free PDF on nothing more than Seth Godin’s evaluation that it contains important insights?

    But one thing social media has seemed to spark is a dawning understanding that authority is (or should be, at least) limited to a legitimate field of knowledge. So when a relatively famous figure like Robert Scoble states on his website Scobleizer that search engine optimization isn’t important for small businesses, he’s “taken to task” on it rather severely.
    6. Scarcity

    Apart from reciprocity, this is perhaps the most used tool in social media. When bloggers open up a class or inner circle membership or subscription service, it is never for an unlimited number of customers or for an always open/unlimited time. Smart bloggers either create or fully leverage already existing scarcity by limiting seats available, length of time to buy, etc.

    Laura Roeder has rather famously made scarcity a centerpiece of a signature technique, wherein bloggers hold competitions with free services as a prize. When contestants don’t win, they then value the prize more highly precisely because of the newly perceived scarcity. This makes them more likely to accept a consolation prize of getting the services at a slight discount.
    Parting Recommendations

    While the six principles of persuasion started out as “weapons of influence” that were used against us by “compliance professionals,” I—along with Cialdini—would encourage you to practice the positive side of wielding influence. To sum up many of the recommendations from the post, here are some very positive ways to leverage the principles of influence to increase your social media success:

    * Focus on creating value and initiating the reciprocity principle by gifting your social media contacts with high-value content, insights, reports, etc.
    * Sincerely flatter your subscribers, friends, and commenters by responding to them and nurturing your growing community. Actively reach out to people you admire using social media and pay them the compliment of commenting on their blogs, following their tweets, linking to their content, etc.
    * Commit to consistent engagement on the social media platforms you chose to use, to the point of staying away from new social media platforms that you don’t have the resources to actively participate in.
    * Use social proof as credibility cues where appropriate. Show off your number of subscribers next to the Subscribe button. Possibly use colleagues to “salt” your comments on important posts, build up your network by guest posting, commenting, and retweeting.
    * Coordinate within your community on larger efforts for the greater good. You’ll probably be psyched at what you create or accomplish, you’ll do good and feel good about it, and you’ll likely become associated with the effort.
    * Put the extra effort in on achieving professional and inspiring design. Dress for success on your blog, website, and social media landing pages.
    * When creating a contest or trying to spark immediate action, use the scarcity principle to positive effect. But be honest about it—no changing “last day for” dates, no miraculously replenishing supplies, etc

    But, hey, I’d be THRILLED to add to the list if you recognize any of your tried-and-true techniques as falling within—or totally falling outside of—these weapons of influence.

    What are your secret weapons of influence? Let’s engage. Please comment below now.

    Tags: authority, authority rules, autofollow, blog comment, blog subscribers, brian clark, bryan eisenberg, commenting, commitment, community, consistency, consistent engagement, design, emotional reactions, expertise, flatter, followers, free value, guest posting, halo, high value content, influence, inner circle, laura roeder, liking, measure of authority, membership service, multiple blog reviews, newsletters, perceived expertise, reciprocation, retweet, retweeting, robert cialdini, rss feeds, salting, scarcity, seth godin, signal to noise ratio, smart bloggers, social compliment, social interaction, social media, social media engagement, social media persuasion, social media platforms, social proof, subscription service, trackback, tribes, trick or tweet, trust, twitter followers, virtual trappings, weapons of influence, youtube views

    About the Author, Jeff Sexton

    Jeff Sexton is a copywriting and website optimization specialist who combines content and messaging improvement with aggressive analytics and testing as part of a “holistic” approach to online marketing optimization. Other posts by Jeff Sexton »

    Nielsen reports online user trends

    Study finds 79% would avoid Web site that charges

    By Georg Szalai

    Feb 16, 2010, 11:05 AM ET

    NEW YORK — As media and entertainment companies continue to mull new ways to charge consumers for online news and entertainment, 85% continue to prefer that content remain free.

    According to new research from Nielsen, which asked more than 27,000 consumers across 52 countries, there are, however, some opportunities.

    While media firms continue to debate business models and experiment with various approaches to charging for digital content, Nielsen found that 52% of respondents favor micropayments. That said, only 43% say an easy payment method would make them more likely to pay for online content.

    Advertising will certainly remain a key revenue stream for media companies in the digital space. Nielsen found that 47% of respondents are willing to accept more advertising to subsidize free content. In turn, 64% believe that if they must pay for content, there should be no ads.

    Digital content, for which consumers are most likely to pay, or have paid for already, is professionally produced content that they are used to paying for offline, such as theatrical movies, music, games and select videos, including current television shows, Nielsen found.

    “Consumers are least likely to pay for content that is essentially homegrown online, often by other consumers at fairly low cost,” according to a summary of the Nielsen study. Such content includes online communities, podcasts, consumer-generated videos and blogs.

    In between those two categories are various news offers — from newspapers and magazines to Internet-only news sources and radio news and talk shows. While relatively expensive to produce, “much of their content has basically become a commodity, readily available elsewhere for free,” Nielsen concluded.

    Overall, Nielsen found that 79% would no longer use a Web site that charges them — presuming they can find the same information at no cost. The research firm found that consumers look for content to meet certain criteria before they are willing to pay for it in the digital world. For example, 78% of respondents said they should get free online access if they already subscribe to a newspaper, magazine, radio or TV service.

    And 71% say online content must be considerably better, but only 34% believe the quality of content would suffer if companies couldn’t charge for it.

    Also, 62% said if they pay for content, they should be free to copy and share it with whomever they want.

    Fast-Growing Video Site Fails to Reach Extension With Parent of Popular Comedy Central Shows

    By Michael Learmonth

    Published: March 03, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Hulu is losing two of its most popular series — Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report” — after failing to reach an extension of a deal with Viacom.

    Unlike ABC, NBC and Fox, Viacom is not an equity investor in Hulu, but since 2008 it has been the most prominent provider of cable programming to the video service, which is dominated by broadcast TV programming.

    Viacom’s rationale for putting those two shows on Hulu, as opposed to, say, “Jersey Shore” from MTV, is that they’re topical, like news programming, and don’t have the kind of long-term value as a dramatic series.

    Hulu has been growing fast, but even its partners are taking a more cautious approach to how many episodes in a given series they put on the service. Shows on Hulu typically run with one-quarter of the ads broadcast TV has, but those ads include innovative formats such as “Ad Selector,” which allows users to choose the ad they watch before an episode.

    As a service, Hulu is built for broadcast TV in that it is free online and supported by advertising. Hulu has said it would implement a pay wall to accommodate other business models such as cable, with its dual revenue stream of advertising and subscriptions, or even recent movie releases.

    Deal over
    The deal with Comedy Central was always a short-term one, and Comedy Central execs monitored it closely to determine what value the company was getting, weighing that against the impact on ratings and the network’s own websites.

    In a blog post, Hulu’s senior VP of content and distribution, John Forssell, wrote, “We’ve had very strong results for both Hulu and for Comedy Central, in terms of the views and the revenue we’ve generated … we’ve driven steadily increasing revenue per view as advertisers voted with their budgets to take advantage of innovative ad formats and very strong advertising effectiveness.”

    The shows will come down from the service March 9, but they will remain in Hulu’s directory, which lists shows not on the service, such as CBS content, and Hulu helpfully directed fans to Comedy Central’s sites, TheDailyShow.com and ColbertNation.com.

    But the removal of “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report” is a blow; both resonated with Hulu’s viewers. The “Daily Show” was Hulu’s seventh most-watched series last week, and “Colbert” was No. 10.

    March 9, 2010

    By JENNIFER MEDINA

    Rafaela Espinal held her first poolside chat last summer, offering cheese, crackers and apple cider to draw people to hear her pitch.

    She keeps a handful of brochures in her purse, and also gives a few to her daughter before she leaves for school each morning. She painted signs on the windows of her Chrysler minivan, turning it into a mobile advertisement.

    It is all an effort to build awareness for her product, which is not new, but is in need of an image makeover: a public school in Harlem.

    As charter schools have grown around the country, both in number and in popularity, public school principals like Ms. Espinal are being forced to compete for bodies or risk having their schools closed. So among their many challenges, some of these principals, who had never given much thought to attracting students, have been spending considerable time toiling over ways to market their schools. They are revamping school logos, encouraging students and teachers to wear T-shirts emblazoned with the new designs. They emphasize their after-school programs as an alternative to the extended days at many charter schools. A few have worked with professional marketing firms to create sophisticated Web sites and blogs.

    Brochures, fliers and open houses have become all but required in New York City neighborhoods like Harlem, where many schools have shown lagging academic performance. Where parents once simply sent their children to the nearby school, they now can enter lotteries for two dozen charters.

    “We have to think about selling ourselves all the time, and it takes a concerted effort that none of us have ever done before,” said Ms. Espinal, who is in her first year as principal of Public School 125, also known as the Ralph Bunche School. “We have to get them in the door if we are even going to try to convince them to come here.”

    Five years ago, P.S. 125, on West 123rd Street, had more than 460 students. Today, the school, with students in kindergarten through the fifth grade and an A on its last school report card, has fewer than half that, and now shares its building with the Columbia Secondary School, which serves students in grades 6 through 12.

    During her open house last week, Ms. Espinal spent more than two hours channeling her enthusiasm to persuade half a dozen parents that P.S. 125 was the best place for their children. She walked quickly and spoke even faster as she led the parents through the school, proudly showing off a building with an ornate auditorium and a spotless gym.

    And then there was the functioning pool, where she held the chat last summer. Few other public schools in Manhattan have one, she boasted.

    Parents oohed and ahhed at the pool and ran through dozens of questions about which reading program the school used, how often students used the science lab and which students used the gym on rainy days. Several counted the children in each classroom and smiled contentedly when they did not get to 20.

    “That’s key,” said Shoshana Haulley, whose 4-year-old son will enter kindergarten next year. After the tour, Ms. Haulley said she was impressed with Ms. Espinal’s assertiveness but was unsure where she would send her son.

    Officials at Alain L. Locke Elementary School, on West 111th Street, spent months with a marketing firm, which worked free of charge to develop a blog and Web site to keep parents up to date. Since 2005, enrollment at the school has dropped by more than 25 percent, but has stabilized this year.

    “Sometimes it’s just a matter of sharing what’s happening,” said Susan M. Green, the principal of the school. Like other school leaders in Harlem, Ms. Green said sometimes parents were “pleasantly surprised” when they visited open houses, which the schools now routinely hold.

    River East Elementary, on East 120th Street, draws students throughout Harlem and typically has more applicants than seats. But at this time of year, staff members spend hours scurrying to day care centers, churches and apartment complexes to find prospective parents, said Katie Smith, the assistant principal. “We have to be out there constantly representing ourselves,” Ms. Smith said.

    Keeping the classrooms full is not just a matter of pride. Dwindling enrollment is one of the criteria that the schools chancellor, Joel I. Klein, uses when deciding which schools to close, saying that it shows parents are “voting with their feet.”

    The prospect of being shut down has left educators in Harlem’s public schools anxious. Teachers from closed schools keep their salaries even if they cannot find new positions, though Mr. Klein has been seeking the power to lay them off after a certain time. In some cases, principals and other administrators can lose their jobs or be pushed out of the system.

    Last year, the Education Department moved to shut down Public School 241 and replace it with a charter school run by the Harlem Success Academy network, but backed off after the teachers’ union filed a lawsuit. Still, Mr. Klein sent a letter home to parents at the school, encouraging them to “seriously consider” applying to Harlem Success, which now shares the building with P.S. 241.

    This fall, 232 students enrolled at the traditional school, a drop from 299 the year before.

    For most schools, the marketing amounts to less than $500, raised by parents and teachers to print up full color postcards or brochures. Typically, principals rely on staff members with a creative bent to draw up whatever they can.

    Student recruitment has always been necessary for charter schools, which are privately run but receive public money based on their enrollment, supplemented by whatever private donations they can corral.

    The Harlem Success Academy network, run by the former City Council member Eva Moskowitz, is widely regarded, with admiration by some and scorn by others, as having the biggest marketing effort. Their bright orange advertisements pepper the bus stops in the neighborhood, and prospective parents receive full color mailings almost monthly.

    Ms. Moskowitz said the extensive outreach was necessary to make sure they were drawing from a broad spectrum of parents. Ms. Moskowitz said they spent roughly $90 per applicant for recruitment. With about 3,600 applicants last year for the four schools in the network, she said, the total amounted to $325,000.

    As another example of the buzz that public schools are up against, the Oscars broadcast on Sunday night included a 60-second American Express advertisement featuring Harlem Children’s Zone, which runs two charter schools.

    The regular schools are contending, most of all, with a perception that charter schools deliver a superior education. Many of Harlem’s regular schools, like its charter schools, received A’s last year from the city for showing progress on standardized tests. But, in general, they tend to have lower passing rates.

    Even Ms. Green, of Alain Locke Elementary, said there was only so much a school could do to increase enrollment. “For me there are variables you can control and some that you can’t,” she said. “Our job is catering to the needs of the children who are here.”

    Karen Zraick contributed reporting.

    Posted by: Patrick | March 13, 2010

    Forbes.com: Digital Media Lift-Off

    Forbes.com

    Media
    Digital Lift-Off
    Dirk Smillie, 03.08.10, 12:00 AM ET

    We’ve been waiting for this: A study by Outsell, to be released Monday, reveals that U.S. advertisers are spending more this year on digital media than on print. Long predicted, this Madison Avenue milestone has finally arrived thanks to a 9.6% boom in digital advertising in 2010.

    That number comes from Outsell’s annual advertising and marketing study, which collected data from 1,008 U.S. advertisers (both consumer and B2B) in December 2009. Of the $368 billion marketers plan to spend this year, 32.5% will go toward digital; 30.3% to print. Digital spending includes e-mail, video advertising, display ads and search marketing. “It’s a watershed moment,” says the study’s lead author, Outsell vice president Chuck Richard.

    As disrupting as this digital onslaught is to champions of print, the Outsell report has some surprising news for one old media category. Ad spending for magazines will rise this year by 1.9%, to $9.4 billion. That number reflects a spending boost of 4.2% for consumer titles and 1% for B2B. “Marketers are telling us they’re giving this print category some serious attention,” says Richard.

    Digital may now be the primary survival strategy for publishers, but Richard offers another glimmer of optimism for print denizens. After a year of pounding their expenses and debt into far slimmer balance sheets, “We should see far fewer closures and cutbacks among traditional media,” he says.

    Not so for mobile marketing, another category studied in the Outsell report. “The proof isn’t in yet that mobile spending is all that effective,” says Richard. He offers this example: The Sports Illustrated swimsuit iPhone app was touted by many as a huge success. The issue is the most hyped magazine event of the year. The app was the 33rd-highest-grossing mobile app in the iPhone store. “But if you do the simple math, 32,000 people paid $2 apiece to download it. That’s $64,000.” A single page of advertising in the print version of the swimsuit edition, says Richard, brings in about $135,000 a page. “It’s time for a reality check.”

    Marketers seem to know that. In spite of the staggering number of ventures flinging content onto mobile platforms, advertisers will spend 16% less on mobile in 2010, notes the study.

    Posted by: Patrick | March 14, 2010

    NYTimes.com: Facebook Helps Social Start-Ups Gain Users

    By JENNA WORTHAM

    Published: March 12, 2010

    Frank Curry for The New York Times

    Mark Hendrickson, the chief executive of Plancast, where members share social or business plans, said social networking services are more valuable when your friends are using them.

    But a growing number of start-up companies are getting around this problem by, in essence, outsourcing the sign-up process. They are making use of a Facebook service that lets users log into new sites using their Facebook credentials. The free service, Facebook Connect, can help nascent Web services recruit a healthy crowd of users in a hurry, and help the users find their friends on those sites.

    At the same time, the service reinforces Facebook’s role as the central hub of the social networking world.

    “There is always a chicken-and-egg problem with any social service,” said Mark Hendrickson, co-founder of a service called Plancast, which lets members share their social or business plans with their online circle of friends. “You have to have friends there already to make it valuable.”

    Relying on another company for such an important function can be risky. For example, an unexpected technical problem at Facebook could affect a start-up’s site. More broadly, any big change in the way Facebook works could have ripple effects.

    Mr. Hendrickson acknowledged those challenges, saying, “These platforms are essential for next-generation technologies, but they are also still minefields for those same new technologies.”

    Most sites hedge their bets by also creating ways for people to sign up directly, or to use their log-in information from Twitter, in addition to Facebook, as Plancast has elected to do.

    Of course, coming up with a clever idea and synching it to Facebook Connect does not guarantee a home run. Gelato, a matchmaking service that finds other lovelorn people in your social circle, failed to gain much traction after it was introduced last fall.

    On the other hand, Aardvark, which lets users seek answers to questions from people in their extended online network, was bought by Google for a reported $50 million last month.

    Facebook Connect has helped give rise to a new wave of social Web services that benefit from piggybacking on Facebook and its 400 million users.

    Blippy, for example, is a new service that allows members to give friends a glimpse into their spending habits by showing purchases made through iTunes and Netflix and on major credit cards.

    “There hasn’t been a big forum for talking about what you buy online,” said the service’s co-founder, Philip Kaplan. “The concept came from the idea that every time you use your credit card to pay for something, there is potentially an interesting conversation to be had with friends and online followers.”

    The approach seems to be working. Although Blippy opened its site to the public only in January, members have shared details of more than $15 million in purchases with their friends.

    Quora, a question-and-answer service that is still in a test phase, uses new members’ Facebook profiles to flesh out their Quora accounts, picking up clues as to which topic areas the members are experts in. In contrast to most question-and-answer sites, Quora attaches real names to answers.

    Another advantage to using the Facebook service is that it makes it easy for people to send messages back to Facebook from the other sites that are linked to it. A service called LoKast, which lets users share media like songs and videos with others nearby using a mobile application, will rely heavily on Facebook and Twitter to increase its user numbers.

    “People also invite friends through Facebook Connect, but you can also use it to find new users to share content with,” said Boris Bogatin, co-founder of the company. “You may not know who is in your vicinity, but if you twittered or posted to Facebook that you’re on LoKast with media to share, you can find people.”

    Businesses built around Facebook Connect could also reap benefits when it comes to advertising, said Charlene Li, founder of the consulting firm Altimeter Group.

    “Knowing the tailored details about a user and their interests is infinitely more valuable to an advertiser,” said Ms. Li.

    Since Facebook Connect was introduced in December 2008, more than 80,000 Web sites and services have put the log-in feature to use, said Ethan Beard, director of the Facebook developer network. They are not just start-ups either: The Huffington Post uses it to allow readers to comment on news articles, and Yahoo recently built it into a handful of its products, including Yahoo Sports and Yahoo Answers.

    But just as the service allows people to travel across the Web, bringing their identities and social networks with them, it is also a way to cement Facebook’s role as a central hub for socializing — and to keep other Web companies from usurping it.

    “Facebook is evolving through Facebook Connect into much more than a Web site,” said Mr. Beard, who works closely with Facebook’s community of third-party developers. “It’s also a technology and a service to provide social plumbing and creating a social layer the whole Web can leverage.”

    Although there is no formal process to approve the Web services and applications that use Facebook Connect, the company says it has a team that keeps close watch on it to curtail spam and other illicit activity.

    Amanda Lenhart, a researcher at the Pew Internet and American Life Project, said that services like Facebook Connect could help people cut through the noise online.

    “In a way, these services are a response to the ever-increasing amount of information on the Web,” she said. “How are you going to filter it? We need our network and like-minded people to connect us to the information we need the most.”

    March 18, 2010

    IT was not that long ago when Madison Avenue believed that Web video — also known as webisodes, online video and Web series — would replace television, or at least put a big dent into the ability of TV to reach consumers.

    Now, however, as more marketers turn to Web video, many are increasingly doing so along with — rather than in place of — television.

    Take, for instance, “The Next Round Served Up by Jim Beam,” a Web series for Jim Beam bourbon that ESPN plans to introduce on April 4. Although the webisodes will be on ESPN.com, excerpts will appear during the first commercial breaks on 11 p.m. episodes of “SportsCenter” on the ESPN cable channel.

    “We feel very strongly that video is video,” said Ed Erhardt, president for the ESPN customer marketing and sales unit of ESPN in New York, part of the Walt Disney Company.

    Another example is provided by the Bertolli unit of Unilever, which promoted “Into the Heart of Italy” — a Web series that began this week — with commercials on ABC. One spot ran during the Academy Awards broadcast on March 7 and a second appeared in an episode of “Desperate Housewives.”

    Some Web series use familiar television faces as hosts. Among them are “Fan vs. Wild” for another Unilever brand, Degree antiperspirant, which features Bear Grylls of the Discovery cable series “Man vs. Wild,” and “In the Kitchen,” for the Jenn-Air appliances sold by Whirlpool, which features Tori Ritchie, a chef and author.

    And as American Express and Constellation Brands team up for “Pairings,” a Web series about food, wine and music that went live on Thursday, its creator, GreenLight Media and Marketing, is considering proposing a series based on the webisodes to a cable television channel.

    The pairings of Web video and television reflect a school of thought that the old and new media can coexist and perhaps even benefit from each other. That idea has been reinforced recently by growing audiences for the Super Bowl and other big events on TV. They seem to be stimulated by blogs and social media like Facebook and Twitter, enabling viewers to discuss together what they are watching separately.

    “When digital came in, people said, ‘No one is going to watch TV,’ ” said Gloria Rosenberg, president at Market Fusion Analytics in New York, a consult firm that helps advertisers develop growth strategies.

    But as it turns out, “there’s a synergy and not a cannibalization,” she added, which is leading marketers to “create integrated communications programs” involving multiple media.

    For example, the Jim Beam Web series will be supported not only with TV but also with ESPN Radio, ESPN the Magazine and displays in stores.

    “This is primarily driven as a Web series, using ESPN.com as a lever,” said Kevin George, chief marketing officer at the Beam Global Spirits and Wine division of Fortune Brands in Deerfield, Ill., “and each piece of the program plays a different role, all the way down to retail.”

    “Digital is important because our guys are watching online video a ton,” Mr. George said, referring to the men at whom the campaign is aimed, “and ad recall on digital is great.”

    Still, “the TV part is nice,” he added, because “it gets you the awareness.”

    This week, the Principal Financial Group introduced a campaign, “America rebuilds,” centered on a Web site with video clips featuring experts like Jean Chatzky. The campaign, by the Los Angeles office of TBWA/Chiat/Day, part of the TBWA Worldwide division of the Omnicom Group, includes a sponsorship of the “Building Up America” series on the CNN cable channel.

    “I’m a big believer in using all the tools in the toolbox,” said Mary O’Keefe, chief marketing officer at Principal in Des Moines. “People can get the information however they like to.”

    In developing the online video for “Pairings,” said Dominic Sandifer, president and managing partner at GreenLight in Los Angeles, “we made sure during production that we captured enough great content and story line” to create sample episodes of a TV version.

    A television version would “take an even deeper look at the creative collaborations and inspirations” of the celebrities who appear in the webisodes, he added, including the musicians Dave Matthews and John Legend and the chefs John Besh and Tom Colicchio.

    Of course, not all Web video has a television counterpart. For instance, “Undercover” — a weekly Web series created and produced by A. V. Club, part of The Onion — can be watched only online. (The Onion does offer computer users make-believe TV, with video clips on sections of theonion.com called Onion News Network and Onion Sports Network.)

    “Undercover,” which began on Tuesday, presents 25 new music acts like Ted Leo and the Pharmacists and the Retribution Gospel Choir. They were invited to perform cover versions of 25 rock standards like “Everybody Wants to Rule the World” and “Kokomo.”

    The first eight webisodes are sponsored by Starbucks, which gets an old-school “Brought to you by” acknowledgment. Budweiser, sold by the Anheuser-Busch unit of Anheuser-Busch InBev, was signed on Wednesday as a second sponsor, said Steve Hannah, president and chief executive at The Onion.

    Asked why he sought sponsors for the Web series, Mr. Hannah replied, “Because we want to pay for it.”

    “Contrary to what the world thinks about The Onion,” he said, laughing, “we are rapacious capitalists.”

    Posted by: Patrick | March 23, 2010

    Politico.com: GOP weighs costs of losing ugly

    It’s time for the Republicans to “turn their frown upside down” and make the case to the American people that the idea of reform IS in fact timely; however, the difference is in how it’s shaped, amended and implemented from here on out.  The goal now show be to Hijack the Reform Bill, strip out the Big Gov’t intrusions and mandates, and align the elements to the strictures of the free market and our Nat’l Budget. (Frankly this should have been done when the GOP had majorities in both houses).

    The question is whether the same party responsible for the conditions that brought about the majority status of the Democrats — after all there would be no President Obama or Speaker Pelosi if it weren’t for Bush era Republicanism & mismanagement — can pivot from the same ol’ tired playbook of mere opposition.

    Can the GOP actually “Listen Louder” and not just “Speak/Yell Louder”?!!  What say you??

    GOP weighs costs of losing ugly
    By: Glenn Thrush and Marin Cogan
    March 23, 2010 05:05 AM EDT
    The only thing worse than winning ugly is losing uglier.

    The Democrats’ ungainly march toward a victory on health care reform Sunday night provoked a graceless response from angry House Republicans, who shouted insults across the chamber, encouraged outbursts from the galleries, brandished “Kill the bill” placards from the Speaker’s Balcony and, apparently, left veiled threats of electoral retribution on the benches of undecided Democrats.

    And that all came before Texas Republican Rep. Randy Neugebauer shouted “baby killer!” as anti-abortion Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) spoke on the House floor.

    That incident followed an even uglier series of events outside the chamber Saturday, when tea party protesters reportedly shouted the N-word at civil rights hero Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), spit on Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) and hurled an anti-gay insult at Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.).

    While House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) was quick to criticize the racial and anti-gay outbursts and to distance himself from Neugebauer’s shout, he made no apologies for the feisty floor debate or the overall tone of the health care opposition.

    “My impression is that Rep. Boehner was satisfied with the tone of the debate, which focused on the serious factual arguments against the Democrats’ job-killing government takeover bill,” said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel.

    Other Republicans weren’t so sure.

    “It was like a mob at times,” lamented one House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “It wasn’t good for us. … Remember, it took years [for Democrats] to recover from the bad publicity the anti-Vietnam protests generated.”

    In an interview for POLITICO’s “Health Care Diagnosis” video series, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) called the “baby killer” outburst “horrible” but said the issues Democrats are pursuing are “so polarizing that they’re really bringing out emotions and the darker sides of people on both sides.”

    Still, Ryan made it clear he would have preferred a less emotional approach over the weekend.

    “In our conference [Sunday] before the vote, a lot of us said, ‘Look — no screaming, no shouting, no yelling, no nyah-nyah-nyah. If they pass this thing, be somber be glum,’” Ryan said. “I said look, ‘We’ve got to be adults about this. This is a serious situation; this isn’t something that we politicize. . . . Yes, in basketball games you hear things like this. We don’t do that. We’re grown-ups.’”

    Neugebauer’s outburst, which echoed the infamous “You lie!” shout by Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), had Republicans worried about the impact on “persuadables” — independents skeptical about President Barack Obama but leery of the GOP’s increasingly conservative tilt.

    The incident also undermined attempts by Republicans to project the image of a sober, less combative party willing to meet Obama halfway. And it prompted a salvo of rebuke from Democrats, who spent much of their post-passage Monday accusing the other party of violating the chamber’s decorum and coarsening debate.

    Stupak accepted Neugebauer’s apology — the fiery Texan claimed he was caught up “in the heat and emotion of the debate” — but only barely.

    “I feel it is important for members to maintain [the] decorum of the House,” said Stupak, who found himself defended by abortion-rights-supporting Democrats with whom he had clashed during the tense final hours of haggling over the bill.

    “Over the past year, there have been a couple of incidents on the House floor where outbursts have tarnished Congress’s reputation, and I hope there are no further incidents,” he added.

    “I don’t know that I would want to explain to my 6-year-old why I had done or said some of the things that were done or said this past weekend,” White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters at his Monday briefing. We “ought to be able to have that debate without the type of language and actions that we’ve seen in some places over the weekend.”

    Hours before Neugebauer’s outburst, several Republicans in the chamber cheered for an anti-reform protester as he was being removed by police, prompting gasps from both sides of the aisle.

    Early Sunday, Democrats entered the chamber to discover color photocopies showing the 34 House Democrats who lost their seats after voting for President Bill Clinton’s budget bill 17 years ago. The headline: “In 1993 they voted ‘yes’ and a young president said don’t worry it will be OK.”

    It’s not clear who handed out the sheets — there was no name on them — which was a breach of chamber protocol requiring handouts to note their source, according to Brendan Daly, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

    Then there was the scene on the Speaker’s Balcony adjacent to the chamber. All day Sunday, House Republicans walked from the floor to shout encouragement and wave American flags to whip up a crowd of boisterous anti-health-bill protesters.

    All of this was accompanied by the more typical chamber mischief used by any party in the minority, including frequent interruptions of opponents with points of order and booing mentions of the president’s name.

    Several Republicans said their party acted no worse than Democrats did during the Bush years.

    “When the CodePinkers and [Michael] Moore et al. were up here, you should’ve heard some of the things they were saying,” said Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.). “At any time there is a heated public debate, people say things they shouldn’t say. We don’t condone it. … It wasn’t appropriate then, and it wasn’t appropriate now.”

    Walden told POLITICO that the GOP leadership was upset about members inciting people in the gallery.
    “They shouldn’t” clap, said Walden. “And the leadership said that doesn’t belong.”

    But Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) said that the outbursts were “a reflection of widespread passion and anger that exists throughout the country.” And while he said that such behavior “is never helpful,” he also suggested that much of the anger stems from the feeling — amplified exponentially by the passage of health care reform — that the country is slipping out of his party’s hands.

    “Members of Congress are just people,” he said. “We just feel like they are rapidly taking this country in a wrong direction, with no interest in what anyone else thinks and with a taunting arrogance unlike anything I have ever seen. So, yes, people will say things they shouldn’t say or do things they shouldn’t do, but that is reflective of the intensity we feel about how bad the majority is.”

    Jake Sherman contributed to this report.

    Web-Video Future Hinges on It Working Out Pay Model

    By Michael Learmonth

    Published: March 29, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Hulu is everyone’s favorite provider of TV on the web, but it’s facing an ideological battle over its future. On one side are its network backers, which would like Hulu to become a paid service. On the other is the advertising community, which would like to keep Hulu free as a test-bed for new targeted-ad formats that can’t be skipped.

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    It’s an important issue, because any debate about Hulu is a debate about the future of purely ad-supported TV, which is increasingly becoming an endangered species. Hulu is the No. 2 video site on sheer volume of video views behind YouTube, yet no one is yet making much money from its model: not its network backers, other content partners and least of all Hulu itself, which has a hard time paying for its bandwidth bills.

    “[Hulu] does have to move to a premium model,” said one network exec. “If you look at the business, it’s just not economically feasible to give away programming at low rates.”

    Hulu won’t comment on its economics, but if you consider that it’s selling video ads and companion banners together in the $40 CPM range, and it appears to be about 50% sold out, when 70% is paid back to networks, Hulu is netting pennies per viewer per hour, about what it costs to deliver video of that quality.

    One caveat, however, is that a significant amount of Hulu inventory is sold by the networks, which can buy back inventory to sell to advertisers. Hulu gets 30% of that CPM without any of the costs. Also, Hulu has ad deals with many TV networks on different terms.

    Complex web
    “There’s room for an ad-supported model for TV online,” said Curt Hecht, president of Publicis innovations unit Vivaki. “Hulu is a great environment with great programming; the onus is on us to help figure out the business model.”

    Hulu is navigating an increasingly complex web of agendas, not least of which is what will happen when it is partly owned by a cable company after Comcast takes control of NBC Universal. “Ultimately, as a content company, you have to be paid on multiple platforms for multiple eyeballs in multiple ways,” said Quincy Smith, partner in Code Advisors and adviser to CBS and web video service Vevo.

    When Hulu launched, it was set up as the perfect online distributor for network TV, which was completely ad-supported. But since then, broadcast networks have fought for and won retransmission fees from cable operators, making their model a lot more like cable. The TV business is only 50% ad supported, with $68 billion coming from advertising. When you tally up TV subscriber fees collected by cable, satellite and telcos, it comes to, well, about $68 billion. And the reality is, between cable, satellite and telecom TV offerings, 90% of Americans pay for their TV.

    And then there’s Hulu.

    Increasingly, networks want paid models for their content online, such as Fox’s mobile service introduced last week, which will charge users $9.99 for mobile access to programming. Hulu has promised a mobile app for months, which may also be a paid service.

    Pay wall
    As the networks rely more on subscription fees, pressure is growing on Hulu from its partners — and from cable providers themselves — for Hulu to erect a pay wall, which would not only help pay the bills but allow Hulu to get some of the cable programming it covets, such as “The Daily Show” and “Colbert Report,” which Viacom pulled off the service last month.

    An easy answer would be to increase the ad load, which an array of studies has suggested it could do. Hulu has steadfastly remained at six ads per hour, fewer than CBS is showing online (as many as nine) and far fewer than the more than 20 that the networks show in a typical hour-long drama on TV.

    From the agency perspective, it would be better to keep Hulu free but invent new ad formats with precise targeting to demographics and stated interests. The pre-roll “selector” was invented at Hulu. This gives the consumer the chance to choose the ads he wants to watch before a show starts, which also means the viewer is interacting with the ad even before watching it. The format was chosen by Vivaki as a format of choice across Publicis agencies. Those are sold at a much-higher CPM than $40; so too would targeted ads to certain demographics. But would it be enough to support Hulu and pay for the production of content?

    “It definitely gets you closer to the answer than just throwing up more ads with no targeting involved,” said Tracey Sheppach, innovations director at Vivaki, who worked closely with the company as it tested a variety of digital video ad formats over the past year.

    MTV Developing ‘Co-Viewing’ Apps for the iPad

    By Kunur Patel

    Published: March 26, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Magazines and newspapers aren’t the only media eying big benefits upon the iPad’s arrival: TV is poised to use the device in new ways, including creating interactive, social apps designed to be used while watching live programming.

    MTV Networks, for example, is developing a “co-browsing app meant to be used while watching live TV,” said one executive familiar with MTV’s iPad plans. “This means the iPad could be the appendage that makes interactive TV a reality.”

    Kristin Frank, general manager of MTV and VH1 Digital, said MTV is focusing on two approaches to its apps, whether for mobile or the iPad: co-viewing apps that capture the social-media chatter around TV and awards shows and apps for video on the go. IPad apps for “Beavis and Butt-Head,” “MTV News” and “VH1 To Go” are all due in April, she said.

    “Fifty-nine percent of people are multitasking when watching TV — that’s something we’ve always known,” said Ms. Frank, referring to recent Nielsen data quantifying a longstanding observation. “This is the next evolution.”

    Mobile phone apps to run on the iPhone and Android devices remain MTV’s priority for 2010, Ms. Frank noted, but the iPad apps under construction are a reminder that TV is not about to sit the tablet out.

    ‘Sweet spot’
    Part of the idea is that mobile devices are easier and more appealing to play with while watching TV than laptop or desktop computers — but the tablet will hit the sweet spot in between.

    The iPad is going to open new opportunities, said Somrat Niyogi, CEO at the app developer Bazaar Labs. “I do think that with the iPad you are going to see a lot more conversation because the screen is bigger,” he said. “People will be more receptive to typing. It’s early, but you’re going to see in the next 12 to 18 months a series of start-ups experimenting in new ways to layer digital on the TV experience.”

    Bazaar Labs has already released an iPhone app called Miso that suggests another avenue opening up. Miso users “check in” to TV shows or movies — much like they do on Foursquare and Gowalla for physical places like bars and restaurants — to share what they’re watching on Twitter and Facebook and earn badges.

    Networks and movie studios are interested in the app’s ability to get viewers to broadcast what they’re watching to their social networks, according to Mr. Niyogi, who recently partnered with MGM Studios so users can unlock branded badges for its movie “Hot Tub Time Machine.”

    Social media boost
    You can see why networks and others might be intrigued by apps that revolve around what’s on TV right now. Major live, broadcast events like this year’s Oscars and Winter Olympics have already demonstrated how much social media chatter can surround televised events — and boost ratings. And tweets about TV shows tend to spike as they air, often making hit shows into trending topics on Twitter during airtime, according to data from Trendrr, a tracking service for social and digital media .

    Even Google TV, the search giant’s planned partnership with Intel and Sony, intends to better integrate social networking and web-based applications with TV — imagine social-networking apps for television built by developers with Google’s Android operating system. The companies are reportedly working with Logitech to develop remotes with keyboards to make it easier to do things like update Twitter — a behavior we’re already seeing with users on mobile phone touchscreens or QWERTY keyboards.

    Bravo recently introduced Talk Bubble, which lets viewers interact with the Real Housewives of New York, for example, while the show is on air and share comments via Twitter or Facebook. About 40% of Talk Bubble’s use so far is coming from mobile devices, according to Lisa Hsia, senior VP-Bravo digital media.

    DealBook - A Financial News Service of The New York Times

    April 1, 2010, 1:19 am

    For Start-Ups, Late Bursts of Private Cash

    Paul Sakuma/Associated Press, Jim Wilson/The New York Times NOT YET Some founders, like Mark Zuckerberg, above, of Facebook and Jeremy Stoppelman of Yelp, are not yet planning public offerings.

    By CLAIRE CAIN MILLER

    A FEW years ago, Facebook, which brought social networking to college students and grandparents alike, was expected to be a public company by now. Founded in 2004, it is cash-flow positive and is expected to bring in $1 billion in revenue this year.

    Yet it is stubbornly staying private and has turned to a new kind of investor for the money that otherwise might have come from a public offering.

    In May, Facebook raised $300 million from a Russian investment firm called Digital Sky Technologies, known as D.S.T. In November, Elevation Partners, a private equity firm in Silicon Valley, quietly invested $90 million, according to a person briefed on the deal.

    Such big investments so late in a Web start-up’s life are unusual. But these deals have another twist: $100 million of D.S.T.’s investment and all of Elevation’s millions went to buying shares owned by employees or early investors.

    Special Section Wall Street’s MakeoverDealBook’s spring 2010 special section delves into Wall Street’s efforts to reshape its image in the wake of widespread public anger. Read More »

    “That’s what’s new about these deals,” said Marc Bodnick, a managing director at Elevation Partners. “The private market is emerging as a substitute for what used to be done only in the public markets.”

    At Facebook, which was facing the collapse on Wall Street and a shriveling ad market, “this seemed like an opportunity for us to create insurance and long-term flexibility” while letting early employees cash out, said Vaughan Smith, head of corporate development.

    Asked about the Elevation Partners investment, Larry Yu, a Facebook spokesman, said, “Facebook is a private company, and we don’t typically address rumor or speculation about equity-related matters.”

    An initial public offering used to be the obvious route for high-flying Web start-ups like Facebook, Yelp, Zynga and Twitter. Instead, they are all staying private for now and have raised large late-stage investments, sometimes called growth capital, big chunks of which have gone to buying shares from early employees and investors.

    This new type of investment “has filled a very important void in Silicon Valley,” said Jim Breyer, a partner at the venture capital firm Accel who is on Facebook’s board.

    The deals have earned the nickname “D.S.T. deals,” a reference to the firm that started the trend. In addition to its $300 million investment in Facebook, in December, it led a $180 million investment in Zynga, which makes online games.

    “Transactions of this nature are proving to be pretty efficient for the fast-growing business where the founders are focused on optimizing for the long term, not necessarily doing an early I.P.O.,” Yuri Milner, chief executive of D.S.T., said after making the Zynga investment.

    In September, Twitter raised $100 million from its previous investors and a new, unusual source: T. Rowe Price, the mutual fund company. And Elevation Partners, which typically invests in older companies like Palm and Forbes, in January pledged $100 million to Yelp, the six-year-old Web site for ratings and reviews of local businesses.

    Late-stage private equity firms, like Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic, have invested in Silicon Valley start-ups before. But typically, the Valley’s start-ups have grown up on a diet of $10 million to $50 million in venture capital over five to seven years, at which point the successful ones have been acquired by a bigger company or gone public.

    For the most promising start-ups, like Twitter or Yelp, selling is not always an attractive option. Twitter turned down an offer from Facebook in 2008, and acquisition talks between Google and Yelp fell apart last year.

    Yet the public markets have been virtually closed to tech start-ups for the last few years.

    “Companies that need additional growth or expansion capital can’t count on the public markets, so to make sure they have enough financial runway to achieve whatever their financial goal is, many are doing large, late-stage financings,” said Gordon K. Davidson, chairman of Fenwick & West, a Silicon Valley law firm.

    Founders and executives of start-ups are also discovering that there are some big benefits to remaining private, if they have the money to do it.

    “We were able to push off the burdens and distractions of being a public company until it made sense strategically, while still gaining the liquidity benefit for longtime employees and remaining independent so we could double down and really focus,” Jeremy Stoppelman, chief executive of Yelp, said about the Elevation Partners investment.

    Private companies can take a longer view without worrying about the demands of quarterly earnings, entrepreneurs and investors say. They also avoid the costs of complying with public company regulations like the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and can keep innovations under the radar of competitors.

    “A lot of people look at what Google did, and they said that was smart — staying private until they had built an enormous audience and nailed an ad product and a business model,” said Mr. Bodnick of Elevation Partners.

    But early investors and employees get antsy: investors expect a return in less than a decade, and workers agree to lower salaries and long hours in exchange for stock options they may someday sell in a hot public offering.

    With the new breed of investment, employees can buy a house or a new car, and remain loyal to the company without the proceeds from an offering. “It’s really a way for us to keep people motivated,” said Mr. Smith at Facebook.

    D.S.T. bought $200 million of preferred shares of Facebook, and at least $100 million in employee-owned common stock. Of the $100 million that Elevation Partners agreed to invest in Yelp, $25 million will go to opening offices, hiring ad sales representatives and developing mobile applications. The rest will go to buying back shares.

    For such investments to pay off, the companies must eventually have a successful I.P.O. That is one reason these investors are looking for companies that already have the revenue and profit to contemplate going public, like LinkedIn or Tesla Motors.

    “My guess is that the companies with the billion-dollar and above market caps have all been approached,” said Greg Brogger, founder of SharesPost, a marketplace for shares of private companies.

    These deals will continue to be attractive to both start-ups and investors, even if the public markets become more hospitable to tech start-ups, some analysts say.

    “Imagine if you could have bought Google stock a year before it went public,” said Bing Gordon, a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers who is on the board of Zynga. “You could have looked pretty smart.”

    Posted by: Patrick | April 12, 2010

    eMarketer: US Internet Population Diversifies

    US Internet Population Diversifies
    APRIL 9, 2010
    Demographic shifts online

    Change is happening within the US Internet population on many levels. The average age of Internet users is rising in tandem with that of the general population, for example, and racial and ethnic characteristics are more closely mirroring those in the offline population.

    eMarketer predicts that in 2010, 221 million people in the US will be online, about 71% of the total population. Their numbers will continue to grow, reaching 250 million in 2014—more than 77% of the population.

    “Marketers already know they are navigating a dynamic digital landscape in 2010,” said Lisa E. Phillips, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the new report, “US Internet Users, 2010.” “In five years, the results of some demographic shifts now taking place will become more evident. Internet users will be older, and many will have lower levels of education and annual income.

    “One thing is certain,” she said. “They will be more diverse racially and ethnically and expect marketing messages to appeal to them.”

    Growth is still occurring among all races and ethnicities of Internet users. eMarketer estimates the Internet population will increase 13.4% between 2010 and 2014, compared with 3.9% for the general population. Despite their already high Internet use, non-Hispanic whites and Asians will see further penetration by 2014, to 81.2% and 81%, respectively. Blacks and Hispanics, while still underrepresented online, will see steady growth in penetration rates, to 72.3% of the black population and 70% of Hispanics.

    “Marketers should use multicultural marketing campaigns to target Asian, blacks and Hispanic audiences, because most are proud of their heritage and appreciate marketers who reach out to them with cultural messages,” said Ms. Phillips. “But keep in mind that all these groups are blending into the American population and do not want to feel separate from the mainstream.”


    The full report, “US Internet Users, 2010,” also answers these key questions:

    • What is the makeup of the US Internet population?
    • What will it look like in 2014?
    • How much time do consumers spend online compared with other media?
    • How has the recession affected Internet usage?

    To purchase the report, click here. Total Access clients, log in and view the report now.

    Syndicator’s Usership Has Skyrocketed Thanks to Its Careful Selection of Which Media Channels to Embrace

    By Nicole C. Wong

    Published: April 13, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — National Public Radio is walking a tightrope: Its business is built upon an old-fashioned mode of distributing information, but its embrace of digital channels, such as blogs and smartphone applications, has skyrocketed NPR’s usership.

    Vivian Schiller
    Photo By: Gary He

    Vivian Schiller

    “Our heritage is radio,” Vivian Schiller, president-CEO of the news and entertainment programming producer and distributor, told the audience at Ad Age’s Digital Conference today. “But the digital sphere has been a boon to us and is a second core. … There is no platform more conducive to mobile than radio.”

    The challenge, with the fire hose of distribution-platform choices blasting full-force as new technologies keep arising, is for its executives to decide what to invest their staff and budget in. At NPR, where its content reaches a combined audience of 26.4 million listeners weekly through more than 900 stations nationwide, Ms. Schiller tries to strike a balance between going “back to basics” and jumping on “every bright, shiny object that comes along.”

    Foursquare, the latest location-based mobile-network craze, falls into NPR’s need-not bucket while Apple’s new iPad zings into the absolutely must-do bucket, she said. The difference? An iPad application can help NPR reach a wider audience and enable its news consumers to become more informed. “We’re a not-for-profit, mission-driven organization, so for us the first question is always about mission,” Ms. Schiller said. “We have almost a religious fervor about two things: the user experience and the quality of the content. If you just keep focused on those two things, the rest of it falls into place.”

    Focus on core mission
    Tom Cunniff, VP-director of interactive communications at Combe, said it’s crucial for an organization to focus on its core mission when making marketing decisions. “With all the clutter, there are a zillion things you can actually do,” said Mr. Cunniff, who oversees both traditional and digital advertising. “Which things are useful to a consumer and which things does a consumer actually need?”

    That’s a question Dell tries to answer by setting up lots of “listening posts.” The computer maker uses social tools as well as customer-feedback forms to figure out what consumer are looking for, what they’re aggregating, what aggravates them, and what will make their shopping experience easier. “They vote with their fingertips on their keyboard,” said Erin Mulligan Nelson, Dell’s chief marketing officer.

    From left: Pete Blackshaw, Erin Mulligan Nelson, Vivian Schiller  and Tom Cunniff.
    Photo By Gary He

    From left: Pete Blackshaw, Erin Mulligan Nelson, Vivian Schiller and Tom Cunniff.

    NPR’s iPad app has quickly become something many consumers’ fingers are tapping. Since the electronic tablet hit stores 10 days ago, one in five iPad owners have downloaded NPR’s app, which has sponsors and underwriters who created a less-cluttered ad experience aimed at feeling natural rather than annoying to consumers, Ms. Schiller said.

    But NPR realizes a large chunk of its audience probably will never touch its iPad or iPhone apps, and that’s OK. It strives to provide for middle-age consumers who only listen to NPR’s shows on their phones while exercising as well as for those consumers’ parents who don’t know how to turn on cellphones.

    “Obviously we cross-promote the benefits of NPR on various platforms like crazy. But the beauty of being on multiple platforms is it’s not like we’ve abandoned radio and will let it whither,” said Ms. Schiller, who tried to teach her 88-year-old mother how to use e-mail. “We’ve got to keep innovating on those core platforms the same way we’re innovating on other platforms.”

    That’s smart, Mr. Cunniff said, because “the traditional stuff still throws off a whole lot of money.”

    Posted by: Patrick | April 16, 2010

    Forbes.com: The Promise of E-Commerce

    Forbes.com

    Zero In
    The Promise Of E-Commerce
    Sramana Mitra, 04.09.10, 6:00 AM ET

    Whichever way you look at it, the Web has become the place for commerce.

    Online spending grew 18% in March compared to last year — the eighth consecutive month of double-digit growth, according to MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse. The growth rate has outpaced that of traditional brick-and-mortar stores. While many chain retailers’ online sales are growing, their store sales are shrinking. At 41 of the 50 biggest retail chains in 2008, e-commerce revenue grew as store sales declined, says InternetRetailer.com.

    For the longest time entrepreneurs wanting to venture off on their own would open a store downtown where foot traffic abounds. But that trend, it seems, is changing. Today’s equivalent of foot traffic is eyeballs. Much of that traffic flows from search engines and mega-marketplaces such as Amazon.com and eBay. Today an entrepreneur contemplating a retail business no longer leases space on Main Street. She opens a Web site. Her market is no longer local.

    There is much discussion today about how we will reverse this recession and why entrepreneurs are a key piece of the puzzle. The U.S. Census reports that there are 19.5 million nonemployer firms — mom-and-pops — and a large portion of this segment operates retail stores. Another 4.5 million firms operate with less than 10 employees, a segment that is also heavy in retail. In this recession many of them have gone out of business.

    For an economic recovery, the small, specialty retail segment will need to get back to a healthy state. E-commerce may be the answer. Evidence suggests many small online retailers are doing quite well.

    Take FineArtAmerica.com, an online marketplace and social networking site for painters, photographers and other visual artists. Artists can use to the site to connect with collectors and other buyers and, says founder Sean Broihier, put the business side of their career on “autopilot,” leaving them more time to create art. FineArtAmerica.com (FAA) has more than 28,000 artists who upload new images to the site each day; 6,000 of them offer prints for sale.

    FAA has been profitable since launch in 2007, thanks in part to its low overhead. Founder Broihier is its solo owner, and the company has no employees. Revenues were $175,000 in 2008 and $1 million in 2009, and the company projects revenues of $2.5 million for 2010. Broihier says that FineArtAmerica.com currently attracts 175,000 unique visitors a day, and traffic is growing by 10%-15% a month.

    Broihier is a very good example of someone who has taken destiny in his own hands by embracing the Web rather than joining the 10% unemployment pool in America. (See my post Deal Radar 2010: FineArtAmerica.)

    Another entrepreneur, Jeff Taxdahl, founded Thread Logic in 2002 to create custom-logo-embroidered apparel for businesses and organizations. Products range from polo shirts to aprons to fleece blankets. In a business that has been slow to go online, Thread Logic has focused almost exclusively on Internet sales while keeping in close touch with customers. In 2009 sales were $1.1 million, up 27% over 2008. (See my post Deal Radar 2010: ThreadLogic.)

    North of the border in Montreal, Beyond the Rack is a private sale shopping club serving members throughout the U.S., Canada, and elsewhere. The company sells designer fashions, hosiery, underwear, swimwear, jewelry, cosmetic and beauty products, and accessories from recognized brands at prices up to 70% off retail prices. Beyond the Rack was founded by Yona Shtern and his business partner, Robert Gold.

    Beyond the Rack has more than 750,000 members and continues to grow. Site traffic is currently in the range of one million page views per day based on 200,000 daily visits. For the past 12 months, both membership and revenue are up 35% month-over-month, and the monthly revenue run rate exceeds $2 million. The company says that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) — excluding marketing expenses — is approaching break-even. Beyond the Rack has raised a total of $4.5 million in venture financing. (See my post Deal Radar 2010: Beyond the Rack.)

    These are a few examples of how a high-tech spin is being put on a quintessentially old school business. Providing the high-tech spin are companies like Austin, Tex.-based BigCommerce founded by Mitchell Harper and Eddie Machaalani, who met in an online programming forum. Harper and Machaalani, a Web designer, founded BigCommerce because they saw that there was no e-commerce product really designed for the nontechnical business owner.

    BigCommerce currently has 3,000 customers and yearly recurring revenues of $1.5 million. It is forecasting 13,000 customers by the end of 2010 and says it is growing at 114% month on month. The company is 100% bootstrapped. (See my post Deal Radar 2010: BigCommerce.)

    For retailers confused about how to manage their inventory and marketing budgets across their own Web site, eBay, Amazon, comparison shopping engines and search engine marketing, a company called ChannelAdvisor offers some answers. CEO Scott Wingo says, “By our estimation, 80% of e-commerce begins through one of three channels. If you’re a small business, you have a good shot at getting in front of consumers if you can be aggressive on eBay, search engines or comparison shopping engines. If you’re not [on these channels] then you are missing 80% of the opportunity.”

    Wingo’s company helps retailers manage inventory and traffic acquisition across various channels from a single integrated platform. From 3,000 customers, ChannelAdvisor pulls in$30 million in sales, and has raised $80 million in financing. (See Scott Wingo’s Entrepreneur Journey.)

    A major movement from brick and mortar to online retailers is taking place, especially in North America. In a few years, this will change the look of Main Street, but hopefully, it will give small retailers greater leverage and more efficient access to markets, including international markets in some cases. As emerging markets embrace e-commerce, large populations of both consumers and retailers will be buying and selling online.

    Sramana Mitra is a technology entrepreneur and strategy consultant in Silicon Valley. She has founded three companies and writes a business blog, Sramana Mitra on Strategy . Her three books, Entrepreneur Journeys, Bootstrapping, Weapon Of Mass Reconstruction, and Positioning: How To Test, Validate, and Bring Your Idea To Market are all available from Amazon. Her new book Vision India 2020 was recently released. Mitra also runs the 1M/1M initiative.

    Posted by: Patrick | May 16, 2010

    Forbes.com: Tax Cuts & ‘Starving the Beast’

    Forbes.com

    Notations
    Tax Cuts And ‘Starving The Beast’
    Bruce Bartlett, 05.07.10, 6:00 AM ET

    I believe that to a large extent our current budgetary problems stem from the widespread adoption of an idea by Republicans in the 1970s called “starve the beast.” It says that the best, perhaps only, way of reducing government spending is by reducing taxes. While a plausible strategy at the time it was formulated, STB became a substitute for serious budget control efforts, reduced the political cost of deficits, encouraged fiscally irresponsible tax cutting and ultimately made both spending and deficits larger.

    Once upon a time Republicans thought that budget deficits were bad, that it was immoral to live for the present and pass the debt onto our children. Until the 1970s they were consistent in opposing both expansions of spending and tax cuts that were not financed with tax increases or spending cuts. Republicans also thought that deficits had a cost over and above the spending that they financed and that it was possible for this cost to be so high that tax increases were justified if spending could not be cut.

    Dwight Eisenhower kept in place the high Korean War tax rates throughout his presidency, which is partly why the national debt fell from 74.3% of gross domestic product to 56% on his watch. Most Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against the Kennedy tax cut in 1963. Richard Nixon supported extension of the Vietnam War surtax instituted by Lyndon Johnson, even though he campaigned against it. And Gerald Ford opposed a permanent tax cut in 1974 because he feared its long-term impact on the deficit.

    By 1977, however, Jack Kemp, Dave Stockman and a few other House Republicans concluded that the economy was desperately in need of a permanent tax rate reduction. Kemp believed that such a tax cut would so expand the economy that the revenue loss would be minimal. He also thought that much spending was driven by slow economic growth–welfare, unemployment benefits and so on–that would fall automatically if growth increased.

    But the Republican Party’s economic gurus–Alan Greenspan and Herb Stein, in particular–were not comfortable supporting a tax cut without stronger assurances that the deficit would not increase too much. At a time when inflation was our biggest national problem their concerns were not unreasonable.

    After enactment of California’s Proposition 13–a big property tax cut with no offsetting spending cuts or tax increases–on June 6, 1978, there was an immediate change in attitude among Republican economists who were previously skeptical of a permanent cut in federal income tax rates. They could see that a tax revolt was in the making and that Republicans could very possibly ride it all the way back into the White House in 1980.

    On July 14, 1978, a few weeks after the Prop. 13 vote, the Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the Kemp-Roth tax bill, which would have cut all federal income tax rates by about one-third. A key witness was Greenspan, who had recently served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and was undoubtedly the most respected business economist in the United States. He was the first Republican to articulate what came to be called “starve the beast” theory.

    Said Greenspan to the committee, “Let us remember that the basic purpose of any tax cut program in today’s environment is to reduce the momentum of expenditure growth by restraining the amount of revenue available and trust that there is a political limit to deficit spending.”

    Citing Greenspan’s testimony, conservative columnist George Will endorsed Kemp-Roth and STB in a column on July 27, 1978. “The focus of the fight to restrain government has shifted from limiting government spending to limiting government receipts,” he reported.


    On Aug. 7, 1978, economist Milton Friedman added his powerful voice to the discussion. Writing in Newsweek magazine, he said, “the only effective way to restrain government spending is by limiting government’s explicit tax revenue–just as a limited income is the only effective restraint on any individual’s or family’s spending.”

    By 1981 STB was well-established Republican doctrine. In his first major address on the economy as president on Feb. 5, Ronald Reagan articulated the idea perfectly. As he told a nationwide audience that night, “Over the past decades we’ve talked of curtailing spending so that we can then lower the tax burden. … But there were always those who told us that taxes couldn’t be cut until spending was reduced. Well, you know, we can lecture our children about extravagance until we run out of voice and breath. Or we can cure their extravagance by simply reducing their allowance.”

    Unfortunately there is no evidence that the big 1981 tax cut enacted by Reagan did anything whatsoever to restrain spending. Federal outlays rose from 21.7% of GDP in 1980 to 23.5% in 1983, before falling back to 21.3% of GDP by the time he left office.

    Rather than view this as refutation of starve the beast theory, however, Republicans concluded that Reagan’s true mistake was acquiescing to tax increases almost every year from 1982 to 1988. By the end of his presidency, Reagan signed into law tax increases that took back half the 1981 tax cut. His hand-picked successor, George H.W. Bush, compounded the error, Republicans believe, by supporting a tax increase in 1990.

    When Bill Clinton became president in 1993, one of his first acts in office was to push through Congress–with no Republican support–a big tax increase. Starve the beast theory predicted a big increase in spending as a consequence. But in fact, federal outlays fell from 22.1% of GDP in 1992 to 18.2% of GDP by the time Clinton left office.

    Although all of evidence of the previous 20 years clearly refuted starve the beast theory, George W. Bush was an enthusiastic supporter, using it to justify liquidation of the budget surpluses he inherited from Clinton on massive tax cuts year after year. Bush called them “a fiscal straightjacket for Congress” that would prevent an increase in spending. Of course nothing of the kind occurred. Spending rose throughout his administration to 20.7% of GDP in 2008.

    Nevertheless STB remains a critical part of Republican dogma. On April 8 Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., told right-wing talk show host Sean Hannity that the Republican response to health care reform would be to “starve the beast” by refusing to fund it. On April 14 Sarah Palin begged her followers in Boston to “please starve the beast” by resisting any tax increase, no matter how large the budget deficit.

    Despite its continuing popularity among Republican politicians, at least a few conservative intellectuals are starting to have misgivings about STB. In 2005 free-market economist Arnold Kling admitted he had been wrong. “Cutting taxes did not help to reduce the size of government,” he conceded.

    For some years Bill Niskanen of the libertarian Cato Institute has argued that STB actually increased spending and made deficits worse. His argument is that the cost of spending is ultimately the taxes that will have to be raised to pay for it. Thus fear of future tax increases was the principal brake on spending until STB came along. By eliminating tax increases as a necessary consequence of deficits, it also reduced the implicit cost of spending. Thus, ironically, STB led to higher spending rather than lower spending as the theory posits.


    In the latest study of STB, political scientist Michael New of the University of Alabama confirms Niskanen’s analysis. “Revenue reductions by themselves are not an effective mechanism for limiting expenditure growth,” New concluded. “The evidence suggests that lower levels of federal revenue may actually lead to greater increases in spending.”

    In effect STB became a substitute for spending restraint among Republicans. They talked themselves into believing that cutting taxes was the only thing necessary to control the size of government. Thus, rather than being a means to an end–the end being lower spending–tax cuts became an end in themselves, completely disconnected from any meaningful effort to reduce spending or deficits.

    Starve the beast was a theory that seemed plausible when it was first formulated. But more than 30 years later it must be pronounced a total failure. There is not one iota of empirical evidence that it works the way it was supposed to, and there is growing evidence that its impact has been perverse–raising spending and making deficits worse. In short, STB is a completely bankrupt notion that belongs in the museum of discredited ideas, along with things like alchemy.

    Bruce Bartlett is a former Treasury Department economist and the author of Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action and The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

    Posted by: Patrick | June 3, 2010

    Forbes.com: Spending Through The Tax Code

    Forbes.com

    Notations
    Spending Through The Tax Code
    Bruce Bartlett, 05.28.10, 6:00 AM ET

    Conservatives are united in their belief that government spends much too much and that spending ought to be cut sharply. But they almost universally ignore de facto spending through the Tax Code even though many tax provisions are functionally identical to spending. These “tax expenditures” not only hemorrhage revenue unnecessarily, but they distort private decision-making, create unfairness and reduce economic growth.

    The problem of tax expenditures was first identified in the 1960s by Harvard law professor Stanley Surrey, who went to work for John F. Kennedy in 1961 as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for tax policy. At that time the top marginal income tax rate was 91%, meaning that reducing one’s taxable income by $1 saved 91 cents in taxes for those in the top bracket, while earning $1 of additional income netted them only 9 cents. For some people it was worth spending 90 cents to reduce their taxable income by $1, which gave rise to many wasteful tax shelters designed to produce nothing except tax deductions.

    Obviously, this not only encouraged rich people to mine the Tax Code aggressively for tax loopholes but also to pressure Congress to enact new ones. As a consequence, effective tax rates–those people actually paid in terms of taxes as a share of income–diverged sharply from statutory rates. In effect, the high statutory rates implied that the rich were being soaked, while the reality was that the actual tax rates that they paid were much lower.

    There was a widespread perception that many rich people were paying little if any federal income taxes. A popular book during this era was The Great Treasury Raid by Philip M. Stern, who reported the following cases as well as many others: In 1959 five Americans were known to have incomes above $5 million (more than $37 million in today’s dollars) yet paid no income taxes. In 1961, 17 Americans were known to have had an income of $1 million or more ($7.5 million today) without paying any federal incomes taxes. And Mrs. Horace Dodge had her entire $56 million fortune invested in tax-exempt municipal bonds, which paid her an annual income of $1.5 million (more than $11 million today) that she wasn’t even required to report on her tax return.

    Surrey had hoped that Kennedy’s big tax initiative would cut rates in exchange for loophole closing. Indeed, it’s now forgotten that Kennedy’s Jan. 24, 1963 message to Congress proposing a big tax cut also included many reforms that were later dropped from the final legislation, which was enacted the following year by Lyndon Johnson and reduced the top rate to 70%.

    Surrey was disappointed at the lack of interest in tax reform. He thought that one problem was that no one realized just how many tax loopholes existed, and he had his staff compile a list. It turned out to be a bigger project than anyone imagined, and it took several years to list every tax expenditure and how much they cost in terms of revenue.

    Treasury’s first tax expenditure list was released in the last days of the Johnson administration. Treasury Secretary Joseph Barr presented it at a hearing of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Jan. 17, 1969. He punctuated his testimony by revealing that in 1967 there were 155 taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes above $200,000 ($1.3 million today) who paid no federal income taxes, including 21 with AGIs above $1 million ($6.5 million today).

    This revelation created a nationwide firestorm, leading Congress to enact the Tax Reform Act of 1969, which sharply cut back tax preferences for the wealthy. Richard Nixon signed it into law on Dec. 30 of that year. Among its provisions that still vex taxpayers to this day was the first alternative minimum tax.

    The Nixon administration was not thrilled with the idea of tax expenditures. One fear was that it provided a too-convenient shopping list for members of Congress looking for revenue-raisers. Also, the mere fact that something appeared on an official Treasury list of tax expenditures implied that they are all illegitimate and equally so.


    Critics quickly pointed a serious problem with tax expenditures–they necessarily had to be calculated with reference to a baseline. In other words, if there were no tax expenditures at all what would the tax system look like? Surrey implicitly adopted an idealized tax system that had been developed in the 1930s by economists Robert M. Haig and Henry Simons. They said that the ideal tax base consisted of all consumption during a year plus the change in net worth.

    The Haig-Simons definition of income still underlies tax expenditure analysis–but not completely. Surrey understood that a pure Haig-Simons tax base was impractical, so he made some exceptions to create a “normal” tax system from which to calculate tax expenditures. Under a pure Haig-Simons definition of income, for example, people would theoretically pay taxes on unrealized capital gains yearly, the imputed rent that homeowners pay to themselves for living in their own homes and other forms of income that have traditionally been exempted from taxation.

    Thus, Surrey’s definition of income was essentially judgmental, embodying a liberal concept of the appropriate tax base. Conservatives have long argued that pure consumption can be just as easily justified as the ideal tax base, which would eliminate from the tax expenditures list all provisions that defer taxation on saving such as 401(k) plans, Individual Retirement Accounts and so on. Since a consumption tax would not tax saving, any tax preference for saving would necessarily be part of the normal tax system.

    Nevertheless, Surrey’s concept of tax expenditures is the one that was adopted, and the Budget Act of 1974 requires the Treasury Department to produce a list annually, which appears in the analytical perspectives volume of the president’s budget. Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation also compiles an annual list of tax expenditures that differs slightly from Treasury’s owing to some differences in methodology. Both lists show that the largest tax expenditure is the exclusion for employer-provided health insurance, which will reduce federal revenues by $177 billion this year. The second-largest tax expenditure is the deduction for mortgage interest, which reduces federal revenues by $107 billion.

    Unfortunately, it’s not really possible to just add up tax expenditures and arrive at a net revenue gain, because they interact with each other in complex ways. But a recent effort to do so by the Tax Policy Center estimated the total cost of tax expenditures at 5.5% of the gross domestic product.

    The real problem with tax expenditures is that they tend not to get the scrutiny that spending programs get. Historically, new tax expenditures became permanent parts of the Tax Code and were seldom reviewed for effectiveness. Also, in recent years both parties have supported the creation of many new tax credits that subtract directly from one’s tax liability. Previously, most tax preferences took the form of deductions or exclusions that reduce taxable income.

    Tax credits are really just spending disguised as a tax cut. This is literally true in the case of refundable tax credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit. If someone qualifying for it has no tax liability against which to use the credit, he or she can get a check from the Treasury for the difference.

    To see just how similar a refundable tax credit is to direct spending, imagine that instead of having the Defense Department pay $1 billion to Lockheed Martin for some spare parts for the Air Force, it instead gave it a $1 billion refundable tax credit that was tradable. If Lockheed Martin didn’t have at least a $1 billion federal tax liability, it could simply sell the unused portion to another company that did. Either way the company gets paid $1 billion and $1 billion worth of resources are extracted from the private sector for government’s use.

    There’s not a tax expert on the left or the right who doesn’t recognize the illegitimacy, inefficiency and ineffectiveness of many tax expenditures. There is a desperate need to clean up the Tax Code, as Ronald Reagan and a Democratic Congress did in 1986. Unfortunately, Republicans now take the view that eliminating any tax expenditure constitutes a tax increase, and they oppose it because they oppose all tax increases for any reason.


    When the time comes, as it inevitably will, when raising revenues will be part of a big deficit reduction bill mandated by financial markets, Republicans will really have only two choices: raise tax rates or restrict tax expenditures. Since many of the latter are conceptually identical to direct spending, the choice should be an easy one. Those concerned about our nation’s fiscal future should be focusing as much attention on tax expenditures as they do on the spending side of the budget.

    Bruce Bartlett is a former Treasury Department economist and the author of Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action and The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

    A Primer About Successful Online Communities

    If you’re new, here’s a background primer on successful communities.

    Successful online community building is connecting a group of people online and making them feel a part of something special. This ‘something special’ element is the overlooked bit.

    You do this by identifying something people believe in and inviting them to talk to each other. You don’t create the interest, you create the platform that epitomizes it. It’s important you don’t try to create the raison d’etre. i.e. Don’t try to persuade non-swimmers to become swimmers and join your community, just focus on persuading enthusiastic swimmers to join. Most brands stumble at this stage.

    However, the common interest is the first level of the group bonding. It’s usually overrated. If you’ve ever been part of a purposeful group you know it’s not the mission/common interest that matters. The most important missions on the planet often have the lowest level of engagement. What matters most is how well you bond with others members of the group.

    The better you get to know and like your fellow members, and the more you care about their opinion of you, the more you participate and thus work towards a successful goal.

    Your role is to create an environment, through both your mass and micro (one to one) communications, that facilitates this. This means in public you might recognize top members, talk about the community and plan events. In private you might build relationships with key members, introduce members to each other, ask for opinions and suggestions and work towards a greater good.

    This also means designing your community that reflects both the common interest and the individual contributions as equals. Half your community might be about developments on the topic, the other half should be about the contributions of members.

    It’s important to start small. Big launches tend to struggle with their own high expectations. No successful online community had a big launch day. They began small and celebrated other milestones, perhaps their birthday, or perhaps their 1000th member.

    So begin by talking to a few members at a time and introducing them to each other. Make sure you know the early members very well personally. Aim for slow, steady growth and a high level of participation from each member. As you grow you can begin focusing your attention on the key members and recruiting volunteers to help develop the community.

    The most difficult element is usually recruiting people in the first place. You need to target people that use the internet but typically aren’t heavy internet users. You can find them on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube and dozens of other outlets. Use search.twitter.com too, find people talking about your topic and get to know them. It’s time-heavy, but pays off in the longer run.

    As you recruit members you need to bond them together. Bonding a community means doing things together. Like challenges for your community, milestones to reach or problems to overcome. It also means having a high level of interactions per member and ensuring members are happy to disclose their thoughts, feelings and other information.

    This self-disclosure is important. If you’re not continuously asking members to share their thoughts and experiences, members will never truly bond as a group. No bonds means low engagement and participation rate. More importantly, it means no community spirit (the something special we mentioned at the beginning).

    Allowing self-disclosure also means accepting negative comments. Not personal attacks, they’re nearly always worth removing (as our racist, bigoted and sexist remarks, but allowing conversations to be negated. Allowing heated debates and open disagreement to take place. It’s tough to let this happen, it feels like you should jump in and break it up. But don’t. Let people get their opinions out into the open.

    Now as your community grows you need to begin decentralizing responsibility. Give popular members their own forums/groups to moderate. Schedule regular events/activities that other members can be responsible for organizing.

    Finally, dream big. Begin arranging offline meet-ups and consider pushing the boundaries. Try adding a paid job adverts page, developing branded products, inviting relevant companies to run focus groups.

    If only creating a community was as easy as writing about how to create one. You’re going to find it hard. You’re going to find some things fail. You might not get it right on your first time. However, give it time, be patient and you will be rewarded for your efforts.

    Good luck.

    Richard Millington is an online community builder currently working for the United Nations Refugee Agency.

    Richard is the founder of Commania, a community for community professionals and the author of the Online Community Manifesto.

    e-mail: richard@feverbee.com

    Internet Matches TV’s Influence Over Conversation, According to New Research

    By Jack Neff

    Published: June 11, 2010

    BATAVIA, Ohio (AdAge.com) — Once, TV was the symbolic water-cooler that drove consumer conversations. It still is. But the tube is being upstaged by the web, which now nearly matches it in terms of influence on conversations, according to a new study from Yahoo and Keller Fay Group.

    Keller Fay has taken the air out of the online buzz balloon for years with survey research finding that most discussion about brands still happen face-to-face, and are influenced far more by traditional media than what happens online.

    But that is changing. The internet is growing as the channel that influences or prompts those conversations, however they occur. The web influenced nearly 15% of consumer discussions about brands in January 2010, according to the survey, up from 12% from a year earlier and nearly matching the 16% of such conversations inspired by TV ads or shows.

    TV’s impact constant
    TV’s impact on word-of-mouth remained constant year over year, while the internet’s grew substantially. This coincides with the mainstreaming of social networks that facilitate online sharing and communication, like Facebook, which nearly doubled to 133 million unique U.S. visitors in January from 69 million the prior year, according to Compete.com.

    The vast majority of consumer conversations about brands take place face-to-face, which accounts for 76% of consumer brand mentions vs. only 7% that happen online. The rest are mainly by phone. But the internet is growing as a channel that influences or prompts those conversations however, or wherever, they occur.

    Oddly, the internet doesn’t appear to be replacing other media as an influence over conversations. In addition to TV, which remained stable, print drove a fairly constant 10% of brand-related conversations over the 18 months from July 2008 to January 2010, while the percentage driven by in-store or point-of-sale displays rose from around 8% in January 2009 to 9% in January 2010.

    “Displacement of one medium by another has been less than people expects as the whole media pie keeps growing,” said Brad Fay, chief operating officer of Keller Fay.

    Younger demos drive conversation
    The study found people 13 to 29 drove most of the increase in internet-influenced brand conversations, with those 30 to 39 also playing a role. “More and more of the millennials, the first internet generation, are now in purchasing brackets,” said Radha Subramanyam, VP-corporate and media research at Yahoo. “They’re now coming into a phase of their lives where brands matter.”

    She also believes the pervasiveness of mobile devices in making the internet a round-the-clock presence has played a role in driving more brand conversations. Mr. Fay said the increased role of the internet in brand discussions may also owe to people doing more research and being more cautious about their money due to the economy.

    Social media, online reviews and non-company websites were the fastest-growing components of internet influence in the study, but the two leading drivers remained company websites followed by internet ads, with the influence of both rising slightly over the 18-month period. In all, 38% of consumers in the study said they had at some point talked about brands based on something they’d heard or seen on the internet. And they indicated 66% of brand word-of-mouth mentions are mostly positive.

    The study found 8% of the population account for 19% of brand word-of-mouth, a group Yahoo calls “Conversation Catalysts.” The company notes that a disproportionate 10% of the Yahoo audience is made up of such people.

    Pointroll Says Target, Ford, Marriott, Unilever Seeing High Engagement Rates After Four Weeks on Platform

    Published: June 15, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — It’s early days for advertising on Apple’s iPad, but advertisers running campaigns on the device over the last four weeks say people are watching — and a lot more than your typical rich-media web ad.

    A Pointroll iPad campaign for Ford's Lincoln brand.
    A Pointroll iPad campaign for Ford’s Lincoln brand.

    Much of that can probably be explained by the fact that the iPad’s early adopters find just about everything on the device — including the ads — a curiosity. The question is whether those rates will stay high once the novelty of the device wears off.Gannett-owned ad technology company Pointroll has placed four iPad campaigns so far, including ads for Ford, Unilever, Marriott and Target within the iPad edition of USA Today, part of its parent company, and the communications app TextPlus. Pointroll says interaction times for ads on the iPad are averaging about 30 seconds. Click-through rates have been between 0.9% and 1.5%, six times the benchmark for click-to-expand ads on the web.

    That’s both an indictment of web advertising in general and the click-through specifically as a measure of performance, but it is giving marketers another reason to continue to experiment on the iPad beyond the halo effect of being “first” on a hot new device.

    “We’re approaching it as a trial,” said Scott Kelly, digital marketing manager at Ford Motor Co. “This is all new territory and we are in experimentation mode.”

    Early iPad advertisers are eager to experiment with the new platform to see how campaigns perform and how best to approach it, either directly through publishers — as was the case with the Pointroll campaigns — or as a network ad buy via iAd, which is launching in July.

    “Should we do an iAd, go direct to the publisher or wait for [Google's] Android to do the same thing?” Mr. Kelly said. “We want the targeting and the interactivity of the big screen where you can do 360 [degree] views and videos — we’re just trying to find the most economical way to do that.”

    Ford hasn’t yet committed dollars to the iAd platform, but it is considering it. Key is the ability to create an ad once to use on many platforms, which is complicated by different formats and technologies, namely the iPad, which doesn’t handle Adobe’s Flash, the dominant technology for web ads.

    “It challenges us to come up with ads that are more personal, because there is less tolerance for interruptive ads,” Mr. Kelly said. Notably, ads on Pandora’s iPad app don’t stop the music, allowing users to look and continue to listen, if they wish.

    Catherine Spurway, Pointroll VP-advertising and marketing, said the company is encouraging marketers to think of the iPad as a another device in their marketing plans, one that moves the internet beyond the PC.

    “What is unique about the iPad is they are truly the most tactile device, with a larger screen where you are actually moving the content with your hands, not a mouse or keyboard,” she said. “This is a more immersive experience than the lean back of TV or the lean forward of the PC. You are part of the content.”

    The company believes it will also make ads for the iAd platform, but have yet to get clarity on. It would appear to have an inside track given it serves TBWA’s rich-media ads for Apple on the web, but execs there say they haven’t been given clarity on the topic.

    Regardless, advertisers will be able to access the iPad through the publishers themselves, which is how all advertising on the platform exists today.

    “We’re also looking forward to seeing how iAd pans out,” said Pointroll CEO Jason Tafler. “Its rich-media capabilities, like tying geolocation and its accelerometer into ads, are really interesting and we’re eager to incorporate those and start running ads with iAd as well hopefully in the near future.”

    Copyright © 1992-2010 Crain Communications

    By Andy Fixmer and Cliff Edwards – Jun 24, 2010
    Hulu.com CEO Jason Kilar

    Hulu.com CEO Jason Kilar attends a meeting in Los Angeles. Photographer: Armando Arorizo/Bloomberg

    Sony Corp. is close to an agreement to carry a paid TV service from Hulu LLC, operator of the second-largest video website, on its PlayStation 3 game console, two people with knowledge of the talks said.

    The partnership could be announced as soon as next week, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the arrangement hasn’t been made public.

    Access to video-game consoles would give Hulu’s planned pay service a bigger audience and more revenue by making its Internet programming more widely available on television sets. Hulu also is in talks with CBS Corp., Viacom Inc. and Time Warner Inc. to add their TV shows to the website’s subscription service, people with direct knowledge of the discussions said.

    PlayStation 3 owners registered for the console’s free Web service, the PlayStation Network, would be able to subscribe to a Hulu service that provides on-demand access to current and past seasons of prime-time TV shows from NBC, Fox and ABC, the people said. Hulu also is in talks to put its $9.95 a month service on Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox, Reuters reported previously.

    Patrick Seybold, a spokesman for Sony’s PlayStation Network in Foster City, California, declined to comment on a possible agreement, as did Christina Lee, a spokeswoman for closely held Hulu. Worldwide, the PlayStation Network has 50 million registered users, Seybold said in an e-mail.

    Sony fell 1.2 percent to 2,462 yen as of 10:52 a.m. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The shares of the world’s third-largest TV maker have declined 7.8 percent this year.

    Founders, Investors

    Hulu, based in Los Angeles, was founded by General Electric Co.’s NBC Universal and News Corp.’s Fox. Walt Disney Co.’s ABC and private-equity firm Providence Equity Partners Inc. are also investors in the website.

    The site, which now lets computer users watch shows for free and gets its revenue from advertising, is seeking to expand the ways users can view programming, as well as add new shows to attract paying subscribers. The company will need to renew program rights from owners including NBC at the end of 2011, according to Laura Martin, a Needham & Co. analyst. The network investors also offer shows on their own websites.

    A subscription would put Hulu in more direct competition with Netflix Inc., which supplies online and mail-order access to movies and past-season TV shows starting at $8.99 a month. Netflix already provides its online movie service on consoles from Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo Co., as well as through Blu- Ray players and Roku Inc. devices that connect TVs to the Web.

    Hulu Chief Executive Officer Jason Kilar has said his site’s ad-supported model is profitable on a cash-flow basis.

    The website garnered $52.4 million in sales in February, with 72 percent going to the content owners, according to estimates from research firm SNL Kagan. That left Hulu with $14.7 million in revenue, $12.6 million in costs and a $2.04 million profit, SNL Kagan calculates.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Andy Fixmer in Los Angeles at afixmer@bloomberg.net; Cliff Edwards in San Francisco at cedwards28@bloomberg.net

    Capital Ideas

    How to Generate Innovation in the Public Sector

    It’s rare for innovation to be institutionalized in government. And it’s even rarer to find officials and politicians who are aware of the full range of tools to accelerate better ideas.

    SOURCE: iStockphoto

    By Jitinder Kohli, Geoff Mulgan | July 1, 2010

    We see innovation in action every day in our lives. Whether it’s listening to music on a cell phone, or taking the latest medication to help tackle an ailment, our lives are better and easier as a result of the work to create new products and services.

    When we think of innovation, most of us think of the private sector. And that’s hardly surprising since private-sector innovation accounts for more than 85 percent of economic growth in the United States.

    But innovation is needed just as much in the public sector. Some of the impetus for innovation comes from new challenges such as childhood obesity, or climate change. Others come from public demands—public services can easily become stuck with outdated and ineffective approaches. And still more urgency emerges from fiscal pressures: as money gets tighter, public agencies will have to find more efficient ways to conduct the census or administer social security, improve workplace safety, or tackle crime. Public-sector productivity matters just as much for future prosperity in these days of fiscal tightness as private-sector productivity.

    “It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
    – Franklin D. Roosevelt, governor of New York, Looking Forward (1933).Finding the right way to tackle these issues is rarely straightforward. But it nearly always requires a cycle of coming up with new ideas, testing whether they actually work, and scaling up those ideas that are most effective.

    We know from other fields—such as science and medicine—that innovation doesn’t just happen by accident. There are well developed systems to foster innovation in the commercial sector. Yet too often in the public sector, even though there is a great deal of talk of the need to be innovative, there is little specific action. It’s still rare for innovation to be at all institutionalized in government budgets, roles, and processes. And it’s even rarer to find officials and politicians who are aware of the full range of tools that they could be using to accelerate the development and spread of better ideas.

    This report looks at the actions that leaders in the public sector can take to ensure that there is a constant flow of promising ideas into the federal government. Across government, we recommend that Congress and the Obama administration work together to:

    1. Identify priority fields for innovation: The government must first identify the fields of public action where innovation is most needed. These may be ones where problems are intensifying—such as climate change or aging. They may be fields where the evidence points to underperformance—such as schooling. Or they may be fields where new technologies and knowledge are opening up new opportunities. Some innovation happens through serendipity. But scarce time and resources need to be focused where the returns are likely to be greatest.

    2. Open up the space for ideas: The second priority should be to widen the range of options, creating more space for creative and entrepreneurial solutions. This report identifies many tools that the federal government can use both inside agencies and to mobilize social entrepreneurs, the public, and others to help generate promising ideas.

    3. Finance innovation: We propose a broad target that at least 1 percent of agency budgets should be used to develop, test, and scale up new and better ways of doing things in the public sector. There are a wide range of ways that the government can use financing to spur innovation, from very small grants for ideas from frontline staff to stage-gate investment models.

    4. Fix incentives: Existing incentive frameworks dampen public servants’ desire to come up with newer, potentially better ways of doing things. We need greater recognition that new methods may be both more effective and more efficient than existing programs and initiatives.

    5. Change the culture: Innovation has to be supported from the top, and senior leadership in the executive and the legislative branches should signal that they recognize that some ideas will fail, and that’s acceptable—as Franklin D. Roosevelt first proposed in the 1930s. The need to recruit large numbers of federal employees over the next few years provides an opportunity to change federal employees’ skill set. Future federal employees need to be clear that they should be constantly looking for better ways to accomplish government goals.

    6. Grow what works: There should be a much stronger focus in government on trying to scale up ideas that work—even if that means closing down popular programs or initiatives that have been less effective in the past. Our accompanying report, “Scaling New Heights: How to Spot Small Successes in the Public Sector and Make Them Big,” recommends building a social innovation mentorship program and creating Institutes for Effective Innovations to help the scaling process.

    Action is also needed in each government agency. Effective agencies need to become better at generating great ideas—both from within and from beyond their boundaries. We set out a series of techniques to generate promising ideas under five themes:

    • Unleashing the creative talents of agency staff
    • Setting up dedicated teams responsible for promoting innovation
    • Diverting a small proportion of agency budgets to harnessing innovation
    • Collaborating with outsiders to help solve problems
    • Looking at issues from different perspectives to notice things you wouldn’t otherwise

    This report includes more than 20 different ways that public agencies are promoting the generation of great ideas. Few public-sector organizations will wish to implement all of them. Instead, leaders should establish what they think will work best in their organization under each theme—and focus energy on implementing those. It is, in effect, a menu of practical ways in which organizations can help to generate a flow of great ideas. By choosing elements from each of these five themes, public-sector organizations will be able to ensure that there is a strong flow of great ideas on how to improve the way they go about their business.

    Generating ideas is only one part of the innovation cycle. Our companion report focuses on how to scale up those ideas that have been proven to be effective.

    Jitinder Kohli is a Senior Fellow with the Doing What Works project at the Center for American Progress; Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation.

    Posted by: Patrick | July 11, 2010

    MediaPost.com: A New Look at Branded Content

    A New Look At Branded Content
    Andy Meyers, Jul 08, 2010 03:45 PM
    Every year at the upfronts, we get a glimpse of new programming built to bring viewers to the networks. But that willingness to evolve stands in sharp contrast to the majority of advertisers, which remain stubbornly tied to the past with traditional 30-second spots that have poor retention rates.For a generation that prides itself on conservation, a lot of green is being wasted. Creative conservationists may want to consider giving an evolving form of branded content a try instead, if they truly want to preserve their budgets.

    Marketers upped the dollars spent on branded content in 2009, doubling the 2008 tally. Branded content snagged 32% of overall marketing, advertising and communications budgets. And reports state the numbers are expected to jump significantly this year, following a recent Kantar Media study revealing that companies utilizing branded entertainment spots are experiencing double-digit growth.

    Yet the 30-second spot continues to reign supreme, despite living in the blur of the DVR fast-forward. In a landscape where traditional ads are designed to fill holes between programming — or, rather, entertainment is split to create holes for the ads to be placed — it is time we realize the formula is not working well. That is, unless clients are willing to spend ungodly millions for shelf space in the Super Bowl in the hope of hitting the pop culture jackpot.

    In the early days of television, marketing began as a completely overt concept. Integration into content started when brands sponsored entire programs. It wasn’t a bad fit, and audiences were comfortable with product placement. But as the years went by, viewers’ acceptance turned to disdain; critics said product integration was bad and the public agreed. Producers couldn’t find subtle ways to integrate. Cups with soda brands appeared on tables, while logos were inserted into shows during post-production.

    There is, however, some solid evidence that integration can be fun, memorable and, above all, works. Network and agency executives are creating content that doesn’t just blur the line between programming and advertising but wraps the whole package in a bow. And the public wants to watch when it is well-produced.

    When the economy tanked and ad dollars tightened, advertisers looked to the Web — and transmedia as whole — as a place where traditional commercials could live and be micro-marketed to each segment of their demo base. Initially, brands repurposed on-air spots, amortizing the fortune they spent to cast the widest net possible on cable and the Web. But when this specialized, intrusive advertising model also tanked, clever marketers realized there is another, more effective, way to reach specialized audiences.

    Meet the branded content interstitial: low-cost, one- to two-minute interstitials that audiences cannot skip over. They look like programming because they are programming. These modernized longer-form spots have a narrative and are packaged for today’s short-attention span audiences, so brands can have the ability to create their own super-cool marketing content for a fraction of the cost of traditional commercial spots.

    Since TBS initially struck advertiser gold with its brand-friendly, multiplatform interstitial “Dinner and a Movie” and saw its ratings increase an average of 11% in the 18-49 demo by the middle of the last decade, these produced sponsored specials have evolved. Today, they are customized to play across multiple distribution platforms, which has allowed sponsors to target a wide range of audiences, from potential movie-goers on cable to tweens with iPad applications and young adults surfing specific websites.

    The question is whether more brands will eventually catch on, spending more money on more content that truly is content.

    By the way, it just took you two minutes to read this. Now, back to your show.

    Why Many Teens Are Moving on from Facebook
    JULY 12, 2010
    The main reason? They just lost interest

    There’s no question of Facebook’s position at the top of the social networking space, and one thing that makes the site so powerful is that when it comes to social networking, a user’s friends must be users too. But among some teens, Facebook may be losing its stickiness.

    According to a study from OTX and virtual fashion site Roiworld, nearly one in five teens with a Facebook profile had decreased or discontinued their use of the site as of April 2010.

    What’s more, the decreases seemed to speed up in recent months, with two-thirds of the lapsed users having turned away from the site in the past six months.

    In addition, 9% of teen internet users said they had a Facebook profile but had completely abandoned it.

    This turnover does not approach the level of MySpace, where 22% of teens had completely stopped using a profile. YouTube and Twitter both sported relatively high 15% abandonment rates.

    In Facebook’s case, decreased usage does not appear to be related to the privacy issues raised in spring 2010, or even to the influx of older users on the site. Instead, the plurality of lapsed users simply find the site boring.

    Keeping fickle teens’ interest will be important both for Facebook and the marketers who want to connect with them there. Social games, which most consider a cheap way to relax, have fun and kill some time while playing with friends, are one solution. According to the report, 73% of teen internet users play some kind of social games, and 81% of teen Facebook users play games on Facebook. And the time spent doing so can add up: Facebook gamers reported spending 7 hours a week on the activity.


    ©2010 eMarketer Inc. All rights reserved. www.emarketer.com

    More Than 566 Million Video Ads in June, According to New Numbers From ComScore

    By Michael Learmonth

    Published: July 15, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Hulu is far from the biggest video site on the web; YouTube holds that distinction by a wide margin. But Hulu is a lot bigger than YouTube in one area that counts: the number of video ads it serves each month.

    Hulu commands some of the highest ad rates in video, about $35 for  1,000 impressions.
    Hulu commands some of the highest ad rates in video, about $35 for 1,000 impressions.

    In fact, no other video site or ad network served as many video ads in the month of June than Hulu, according to new measurement data from comScore. Hulu served more than 566 million video ads in June to 7.6% of the U.S. population in June. By comparison, Google’s sites, including YouTube and Google’s ad network, served just over 200 million ads to 15.6% of the country.

    The new numbers are part of comScore’s next-generation Video Metrix measurement service, released to clients on Thursday. The company began measuring video on the web more than three years ago but only recently became able to discern the ads in and around the content, and report that data separately from the content itself.

    The result is data similar to the commercial ratings from Nielsen that the TV networks and agencies began using to buy and sell advertising several years ago, and will give new insight into the economics of video sites, which until now have been relatively opaque.

    Hulu was 98% sold-out in June, according to an exec familiar with the matter, and passes as much as 70% of ad sales revenue to its content partners and third-party distributors. Hulu CEO Jason Kilar told the New York Times in March that the site made $100 million in 2009 and expected to match that by summer of 2010. With its high-quality content and much-lower ad loads than TV, Hulu also commands some of the highest ad rates in video, about $35 for 1,000 impressions.

    Hulu also pioneered the choose-your-own pre-roll ad format, where advertisers only pay when their ad is chosen, a format later adopted by an industry consortium led by several media companies and Publicis unit Vivaki.

    Because it is predominantly short clips, YouTube does not lend itself to online video ads in the way that Hulu’s long-form TV content does. But Hulu is well above other purveyors of TV content such as Viacom Digital, CBS Interactive and ESPN, and trailed more closely by video ad networks like Tremor Media and Brightroll.

    ComScore has been working on the next iteration of Video Metrix to bring online video measurement more in line with TV standards.

    “Online video has evolved in recent years from a medium delivering primarily user-generated content to a channel that now delivers a great deal of professionally produced long-form content that is identical to what a viewer would find on TV,” said Tania Yuki, comScore senior director of video and cross-media products. “ComScore recognized that it was time to revisit our measurement of this space in order to provide the information being demanded by media planners as content increasingly moves towards digital formats.”

    Top U.S. Online Video Properties by Video Ads Viewed
    (Total U.S. – Home/Work/University Locations, June 2010)
    Property Video Ads (in millions) % Reach (Total U.S. Population) Frequency (Ads per Viewer)
    Hulu 566.162 7.8 24.2
    Tremor Media Video Network* 523.938 21.4 8.2
    BrightRoll Video Network* 333.492 16.5 6.8
    Microsoft Sites 222.427 8.1 9.2
    SpotXchange Video Ad Network* 202.408 13.1 5.2
    Google Sites 200.011 15.4 4.3
    Break Media 179.603 9.6 6.2
    CBS Interactive 151.123 7.3 6.9
    ESPN 149.717 4.2 12.0
    Viacom Digital 135.629 8.0 5.7
    Total Internet: Total Audience 4,341.110 46.1 31.5
    *Indicates video ad network/server
    Source: comScore Video Metrix

    On behalf of enlightened conservatives, I’d like to apologize for the damage done to Ms. Sherrod’s career and reputation for nothing more than cynical political reasons.  I think David Frum does a pretty good job of attempting to hold conservative media accountable for their role in this mess by his blog entry.

    I’ve long since stopped listening to Limbaugh as he became more of a blow hard and less a political satirist as he was in the 80s.  Sean Hannity I’ve never liked and hardly took seriously.  Bill O’Reilly I like and I’m confident he will clean up the lack of due diligence he did on the situation.  Finally, Glenn Beck, who I don’t ever watch but haven’t had a reason to want to either, I hope he does as I believe O’Reilly will.

    What’s funny interesting (as opposed to funny ha-ha) about this was the focus group I organized on behalf of Congressman Tom Price (GA) with a group of centrist/independent leaning BUPPIES two weeks ago.  What boiled up over and over again was that while many in the room could agree in some measure with a number of conservative policies and issues, what they couldn’t get past was the brand of the GOP around matters of the aforementioned type.

    To his credit, Cong. Price, who is also Chairman of the Republican Study Group, was a great listener and there was a genuine give and take between the audience and a leader of the Conservative Caucus.  Congressional Republicans in general are cursed with have too homogeneous of districts and can’t extol the virtues of conservatism with any credibility beyond the “amen” party base.

    Unfortunately, Michael Steele doesn’t help matters by being a dud of a party Chairman.  And Lord knows that many of the “old faces” of the GOP — Boehner, McConnell, especially — don’t help the brand either.

    More to come on my thoughts on how to revitalize the GOP brand for modern times and for the changing electorate.

    David Frum

    When Andrew Breitbart unveils a selectively edited tape to defame a federal employee, conservatives blame Barack Obama

    posted on July 21, 2010, at 9:10 AM
    David Frum

    You want to see media bias in action? Okay — look at the conservative media reaction to the firing of Shirley Sherrod.

    Sherrod is the former U.S. Department of Agriculture employee fired for supposed anti-white racism. On July 19, Andrew Breitbart’s BigGovernment.com website posted a short video clip from a speech Sherrod had delivered to an NAACP gathering in March.

    In the clip, Sherrod confessed to having deliberately declined on racial grounds to help a white farmer faced with a foreclosure on his farm. She was immediately terminated by the USDA and condemned by the national NAACP.

    But a second look at the tape made it obvious that the tape had been severely edited, abruptly cut short. Within hours it emerged that the story on the tape was exactly the opposite of the story Breitbart had wanted to tell.

    Conservative pundits justify fraudulent journalism on the grounds that all is fair in war.

    Sherrod was telling a story about overcoming her own racial antagonisms. She had repented, had helped the white farmer, had saved the farm, had formed a friendship with the farmer and his family that lasts to this day. Besides which: The episode in question dates back to 1986, long before Sherrod ever went to work at the USDA.

    By the morning of July 20 the Sherrod-as-racist narrative had collapsed.

    What is most fascinating about that second day, however, was the conservative reaction to the collapse. At midday on the 20th, Rush Limbaugh was still praising Breitbart: “I know that Andrew Breitbart’s done great work getting this video of Ms. Sherrod at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and her supposed racism and so forth saying she’s not gonna help a white farmer.”

    By the evening of the 20th, however, conservatives were backing away, acknowledging that an innocent women had been defamed.

    Here’s Glenn Beck.

    Here’s Rich Lowry, editor of National Review.

    Here’s Instapundit
    .

    Here’s the popular Anchoress blog at First Things.

    Even the racially incendiary Eric Erickson tweeted his disquiet, and then posted this on his RedState website.

    But you’ll never guess who emerged as the villains of the story in this second-day conservative react. Not Andrew Breitbart, the distributor of a falsified tape. No, the villains were President Obama and the NAACP for believing Breitbart’s falsehood.

    Breitbart went almost universally unmentioned. Erickson even justified Breitbart’s falsehood as a tragic but necessary and justifiable measure of conservative self-defense:

    This is what we have become in politics because of the unrepentant race-baiting on the Left. It has become a tit for tat war of retribution. … That war has casualties on both sides. Ms. Sherrod is the latest. It is not fair. But that’s how the Left plays and the Right must fight on offense or not fight at all. It disgusts me to have to say it, but that is so very sadly where we are.”

    Breitbart himself had this to say about those who would manipulate the public record for ideological purposes:

    Journalists love whistle-blowers. Just not when the whistle is blown on them. Journalists love transparency. As long as they’re not the ones being exposed. No steadfast journalism rule is unbendable when it comes to justifying and protecting the racket that is modern journalism, specifically, political journalism in the United States today. The ends justify the means …. They lie when they claim to be objective. They lie when they claim to be unbiased, because these so called “truth seekers” are guilty of engaging in open political warfare. And when the whistle is blown, they simply double down.

    But that of course was not a confession or apology. Breitbart continues to defend his own “ends justify the means” bending of the truth, as you can see here in this July 20 interview with CNN’s John King.

    No, Breitbart’s indignant words on the 20th were aimed at another snippets-out-of-context scandal for the Right: the Daily Caller’s publication of quotations from the JournoList archive in which liberal activists and bloggers jeered George Stephanopoulos for asking Barack Obama about Jeremiah Wright.

    Speaking on a liberal list serve, journalists had wondered how the Wright story could be stifled. One obnoxious young participant had even suggested that the story could be killed by hurling accusations of racism at conservative figures like Fred Barnes and Karl Rove. Conservatives exploded: The media were colluding to quash bad news about their beloved Obama! Only of course the Wright story was not quashed — unlike the story of Breitbart’s role in Sherrod’s firing, which has been, at least among conservatives.

    On the phone on the evening of July 20, a friend asked me: “Can Breitbart possibly survive?” I could only laugh incredulously. I answered: “Of course he’ll survive, and undamaged. The incident won’t matter at all.”

    There will be no apology or statement of regret for distributing a doctored tape to defame and destroy someone. There will be not even a flutter of interest among conservatives in discussing Breitbart’s role. By the morning of July 21, the Fox & Friends morning show could devote a segment to the Sherrod case without so much as a mention of Breitbart’s role. The central fact of the Sherrod story has been edited out of the conservative narrative, just as it was edited out of the tape itself.

    When people talk of the “closing of the conservative mind” this is what they mean: not that conservatives are more narrow-minded than other people — everybody can be narrow minded — but that conservatives have a unique capacity to ignore unwelcome fact.

    When Dan Rather succumbed to the forged Bush war record hoax in 2004, CBS forced him into retirement. Breitbart is the conservative Dan Rather, but there will be no discredit, no resignation for him.

    Instead, conservatives are consumed with a new snippets-out-of-context uproar, the latest round of JournoList quotations. Here at last is proof of the cynical machinations of the hated liberal media! As to the cynical machinations of conservative media — well, as the saying goes, the fish never notices the water through which it swims.

    The Answer Just Might Surprise You

    By Jack Neff

    Published: July 26, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Isaiah Mustafa, aka “The Man Your Man Could Smell Like,” has clearly broken through all previous viral-video records and achieved pop-icon status. The question is: How much Old Spice body wash has he sold? And the answer is a bit of a mystery.

    Isaiah Mustafa, aka 'The Man Your Man Could Smell Like.'
    Isaiah Mustafa, aka ‘The Man Your Man Could Smell Like.’

    Since Mr. Mustafa lent his sotto voce humor to the production wizardry of the Wieden & Kennedy ad in February, the Procter & Gamble Co. brand has been consistently gaining market share, even though that’s only been enough to erase a deficit for the brand built up earlier. In the 52 weeks ended June 13, it had a roughly flat share in a category that grew a robust 8.6%, according to data from SymphonyIRI.Then again, some other men’s brands also have been making substantial share gains of late, including P&G sibling Gillette and Beierdorf’s Nivea. And the thing Old Spice, Gillette and Nivea have in common isn’t Mr. Mustafa, but rather multiple national drops of high-value coupons. They included buy-one, get-one-free offers from both P&G brands and up to $4 off a single bottle of Nivea Men from Beiersdorf, reflecting unprecedented levels of promotional intensity in the category.

    Strong Gains chart
    Source: SymphonyIRI Dove Men+Care launched in February, so has no year-ago comparison.

    Meanwhile, Unilever’s Dove Men & Care has also picked up some share, albeit with lower-value coupons and higher price points.

    The bottom line: Mr. Mustafa and Wieden & Kennedy are clearly selling some body wash, but they may not be responsible for the bulk of Old Spice’s sales gain this year.

    Consider the four weeks ended June 13, possibly the best month ever for P&G body wash. Old Spice’s sales were up 106% from the prior-year period, jumping 4.8 share points in a category that grew 17.7%. But sales of Gillette body wash, also backed by buy-one-get-one-free coupons and by TV ads (but not Mr. Mustafa), were up a lot more, 277% and 3.9 share points, though it’s by far a smaller brand in the category.

    Nivea men’s body wash, backed by little other media support but $4 coupons, saw its sales rise a mere 63% and its share go up 0.5 points.

    And Dove Men & Care, the newest brand in the segment and against which all three were defending vigorously, dropped no coupons and was outside the main promotional burst of its February launch, but still held on to 2.4 share points for the four weeks ended June 13, down a bit from the 2.7 points for the 12-week period.

    How much of Old Spice’s recent gains — of that 106% bump measured by Symphony IRI in June, for example — come from Mr. Mustafa’s ads and how much from the coupons? “It’s impossible to know,” said P&G spokesman Mike Norton.

    Nor is it clear how much Old Spice’s 106% gain will disappear from P&G’s top line when coupon redemptions, which don’t figure into scanner data but do come off the company’s top line when financial results are reported next month, figure in.

    But it seems clear the ad, which won the Film Grand Prix at the International Advertising Festival at Cannes in June, has had some positive impact. Old Spice began to reverse share losses as soon as it began in February.

    Mr. Mustafa, a former NFL wide receiver who essentially switched to playing defense for Old Spice against the Dove launch, is now clearly back on offense. None of the data (including that for the four weeks ended July 11 that showed continued gains for P&G in body wash), yet reflects the sales impact of Mr. Mustafa’s 186 highly publicized personalized response videos earlier this month, which generated more than 34 million aggregate views and a billion PR impression in a week, according to P&G. In a single week, views of the personalized ads surpassed the nearly 29 million viral video views of Mr. Mustafa’s four TV ads since February.

    As of July 18, Old Spice, with 94 million views, had become the No. 1 all-time most-viewed sponsored channel on YouTube, Mr. Norton said. Old Spice had eight of the top 11 most-popular videos on YouTube on July 16. In the six days following the start of Mr. Mustafa’s personalized videos, he reached more than 100 million followers.

    The effort sent Old Spice to more than 80,000 Twitter followers (finally ahead of Mr. Mustafa’s own follower base of 30,000) and its Facebook fan base to 630,000. Facebook fan interaction jumped 800% since the launch of the personalized videos.

    The effort also bumped traffic to OldSpice.com to 300%, inspired a fan to create a website (oldspicevoicemails.com) where people can download voicemail messages that sound like Mr. Mustafa, and inspired a marriage proposal from another fan, which was accepted.

    In perhaps another boon for P&G, Mr. Mustafa has also inspired a counter-video from a man claiming to be a fan of Dove Men & Care, and who may be to some women a cautionary tale of the man their man could look like: http://bit.ly/b5lzAg.

    Marketers Are Certainly Tweeting, but Users Are Barely Listening

    By Michael Learmonth

    Published: July 27, 2010

    NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Attention brands: Twitter users aren’t talking to you or about you. In fact, they barely know you exist.

    The most mentioned brands on Twitter tend to be there because they are part of constant daily conversation, not because of anything the brand is or isn't doing on Twitter.
    The most mentioned brands on Twitter tend to be there because they are part of constant daily conversation, not because of anything the brand is or isn’t doing on Twitter.

    That’s one of the conclusions of a six-month analysis of the service’s ubiquitous 140-character messages conducted by digital agency 360i and released today.Despite marketers’ embrace of the medium, brands are finding themselves on the outside of the conversation. Of the 90% of Twitter messages sent by real people — the other 10% come from businesses — only 12% ever mention a brand, and most of those mentions are of Twitter itself.

    Further, only 1% of consumer tweets that mention a brand are part of an active conversation with that brand, meaning marketers are, for the most part, conducting one-way conversations — the opposite of the way consumers often use Twitter.

    The most mentioned brands on Twitter tend to be there because they are part of a constant daily conversation, not because of anything the brand is or isn’t doing on Twitter. The most mentioned brands on Twitter are, in descending order, Twitter, Apple, Google, YouTube, Microsoft, Blackberry, Amazon, Facebook, Snuggie, eBay and Starbucks.

    Related Stories

    Twitter Has a Business Model: ‘Promoted Tweets’
    Search Ads For Twitter That Split Difference Between ‘Earned’ and ‘Paid’ Media

    Embedded in the culture
    Snuggie is the surprise brand on the list, but that appears to reflect the brand’s place in the culture, not its own Twitter activity. Official Snuggie profile @OriginalSnuggie has just 591 followers and @WeezerSnuggie, an account set up to promote the once-popular Weezer video, has just 693 followers and has been dormant since November.After spending six months going over a statistically significant sample of 1,800 tweets, 360i Senior-VP Sarah Hofstetter was struck at just how mundane and personal they were. “They’re mostly doing what people mocked Twitter about in the first place, as in, what I had for lunch.”

    The vast majority of real people’s tweets, 94%, are personal in nature. Most tweets, 85%, are original and not re-tweets of other messages. They’re also very often conversational: 43% of tweets begin with an “@” sign, meaning they’re directed at another user, not the sender’s followers at large.

    While marketers such as Dell, Comcast, Ford and Starbucks have been, at times, clever participants on Twitter, the majority of marketers use it as a mini press-release service. Only 12% of messages from marketers are directed at individual Twitter users, meaning marketers still see it as a broadcast medium rather than a conversational one.

    Showing up isn’t enough
    “There is still a misperception that if brands show up, people will listen to them, kind of like Facebook a few years ago,” Ms. Hofstetter said. “Twitter can be used as a promotional RSS feed, but that’s not going to establish a relationship with anybody.”

    The study was conducted before Twitter took any advertising, from October 2009 through March 2010. Twitter has since rolled out a series of ad units including promoted tweets and trends. Ms. Hofstetter said the ads are great to help boost things already popular on Twitter. “They are only going to work if they are relevant in the first place,” she said.

    Twitter posts are intrinsically navel-gazing, conversational and personal, but they aren’t predominantly self-promotional. Depending on your circle of connections, it can certainly feel, as Wired’s Evan Ratliff noted, that “self-aggrandizement” is “standard fare” on Twitter. But the 360i study found only 2% of tweets were professional updates or career-related.

    What do Twitter users talk about? Beyond the 43% of individuals’ tweets that are conversational, 24% are status updates, 12% are links to news or comment on current events, and 3% are seeking or giving advice.

    The good news for brands is that when a consumer does mention them on Twitter, they’re usually not complaining about it. Only 7% of tweets mentioning brands indicated negative sentiment, 11% positive and an overwhelmingly 82% neutral.

    //

    The best thing that could happen to the GOP is to have someone like Paul Ryan become the face and voice of the party.  The GOP is in desperate need of “re-branding” and the current house leadership, particularly Boehner doesn’t have a clue.  Ryan has plenty of intellectual firepower and the ability to communicate in plain speak about very complex fiscal and budget problems.  Plus he’s driven to do the real work of how to restrain the size and influence of the Federal government  rather than just falling back on old tired GOP platitudes of smaller government, less spending, yada yada yada.  Check out Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future“.

    I would even go so far as to say that if the GOP wins a House majority this November, that Ryan should shake up the leadership and run for Speaker of the House.

    In short:  DUMP JOHN BOEHNER!!

    A Young Republican with a Sweeping Agenda

    Darren Hauck for The New York Times

    Representative Paul D. Ryan, a 12-year veteran at 40, meeting with a women’s group in June in Burlington, part of his southeastern Wisconsin district.

    By MONICA DAVEY
    Published: August 2, 2010

    ELKHORN, Wis. — Still early on a recent weekday morning, the mostly elderly crowd that half-filled a hall in this small town looked like it might be thinking about another cup of coffee. But Representative Paul D. Ryan, the rangy Republican who represents this southeastern Wisconsin district, was in full PowerPoint roll, gesturing and barking out, in staccato tones, why the nation must make major changes to Social Security and Medicare.

    Darren Hauck for The New York Times
    Representative Paul D. Ryan listening to a constituent in June at a gathering in Burlington, Wis.

    “The question is, Could this happen here?” Mr. Ryan said, as an image of a burning street from the recent riots in Greece flashed on a screen behind him.

    “Do you want this welfare state, which puts us down this tipping point, advances this culture of dependency, moves us away from the America idea toward more of a Western European social democracy welfare state? Do you want that which invites a debt crisis? Or the alternative party is offering you an opportunity society on top of a safety net where we reclaim these ideals and principles that founded this country. That’s what we owe you. And if we get back in office and we shrink from that challenge, shame on us.”

    In this highly charged election season with both houses of Congress at stake, not a lot of politicians are lining up publicly behind Mr. Ryan. He is, nonetheless, suddenly a rising star in some corners. And like many other politicians whose ideas were once considered extreme, only to later be mainstream — like Ronald Reagan — Mr. Ryan is seen as on the leading edge of something.

    Why? His “Roadmap for America’s Future,” an elaborate (critics say drastic) plan that aims to erase the federal debt by 2063, simplify the tax code and significantly alter (his critics say eviscerate) Medicare and Social Security. When asked to handicap the 2012 Republican presidential field, Sarah Palin called Mr. Ryan “sharp.” Newt Gingrich dubbed him “extraordinarily formidable.” And, in a column, George Will imagined him as vice president to a President Mitch Daniels (now the Republican governor of Indiana).

    Mr. Ryan, 40 and the ranking Republican on the House budget committee, has been in Congress 12 years, but it may have been President Obama who gave him and his Roadmap the broadest attention yet. This year, Mr. Obama alluded to the plan as a “serious proposal,” though the White House promptly made it clear that it had problems with its details.

    Mr. Ryan’s Roadmap served as an answer to those who have accused Republicans of saying no, while having no ideas of their own. It has taken fierce criticism from Democrats, who seem content to have something to hate, but it is drawing a far more awkward, unwanted dividing line for Republicans over the sensitive politics of entitlement programs.

    Representative John A. Boehner, Republican of Ohio, the minority leader, has praised Mr. Ryan but said the Roadmap would not be a part of the Republican agenda this fall.

    “There are parts of it that are well done,” Mr. Boehner told reporters last month. “Other parts I have some doubts about, in terms of how good the policy is.”

    In fact, only 13 House Republicans have signed on as co-sponsors, and Republican leaders, hoping for gains in the fall and, ultimately, in 2012, seem concerned at the possibility that the Roadmap may eventually become something candidates will be forced to take a position on. After all, what candidate wants to talk about major changes to Medicare and Social Security?

    Even some of Mr. Ryan’s loudest supporters are reluctant to support the Roadmap top to bottom. Mr. Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, lavished praise on Mr. Ryan’s intellect and discipline, but did not go so far as to endorse the Roadmap.

    “I think it’s a very good starting point,” Mr. Gingrich said. “It’s not a yes-no. When you undertake change on that scale, you have to have a national conversation.”

    Fit from years of an intense exercise program called P90X and with hair as thick as Rod R. Blagojevich’s (and cut in a more contemporary fashion), Mr. Ryan has become a regular on the cable news circuit, and a book about conservative politics that he co-wrote — “Young Guns” — will include his picture on the cover when it comes out this fall.

    But Mr. Ryan is still a wonk. He studied economics in college, once intended to seek an advanced degree from the University of Chicago’s school of economics, and meant to become an economist. Somewhere between stints working for Jack Kemp, a mentor, and Senator Sam Brownback, Republican of Kansas, he meandered into public policy. The inner nerd seeps through: he often sleeps on a cot in the office, says he has “every 15-minute interval” until September scheduled, and writes up these PowerPoints himself (“I really like PowerPoint”).

    Mr. Ryan favors small government and gun rights and opposes abortion. Mr. Obama, he says, is a pleasant person — not “nefarious or evil” — but extremely liberal, and “accelerating our path to cradle-to-grave welfare programs.”

    The Roadmap, which cuts spending decades into the future, is packed with detail, though not everyone agrees what it would yield. People could choose a simplified, two-rate tax system. Corporate income tax would be replaced with a business consumption tax.

    For people now younger than 55, Medicare would become a voucher program in which they would buy private insurance, and Social Security would allow people to create individual investment accounts paid for with payroll taxes. With both entitlement programs, the age eligibility requirements would gradually go up. Advocates praise the plan as a realistic way to take on the nation’s out-of-control debt and prevent the utter collapse of a Medicare and Social Security program, while critics say it guts those programs and would leave old, vulnerable people fending for themselves. Most political consultants advise steering clear of the whole conversation: messing with Social Security and Medicare, they calculate, never wins votes — something Wisconsin Democrats have instantly homed in on.

    “We will be talking about his oddball plan to end Medicare and privatize Social Security,” Graeme Zielinski, a spokesman for the state Democratic Party, said. “Republicans usually do a tap dance around the reality of the Republican fantasy of ending Social Security and Medicare. One thing you can say for him: he really wants to make it the reality.”

    Mr. Zielinski also questioned Mr. Ryan’s professed passion about the deficit; where, he asked, was Mr. Ryan’s concern during the Bush administration? (Mr. Ryan’s staff counters that he has talked about these concerns and voted against several Republican spending bills over the years.)

    For now, Mr. Ryan appears politically safe. His campaign has raised $2.1 million, more than in any of his six prior races.

    His family has lived in these parts since 1851, and it shows. He calls the waitress at the hamburger joint by name. Older residents stop to fuss over whether he is eating enough.

    Democrats, meanwhile, scrambled to find an opponent, eventually signing up John Heckenlively, who has never won office but said he was moved by the thought, “What, nobody is going to run?”

    That is not to say that Democrats never win this district, a conglomeration of farm towns, industrial cities like Janesville and south Milwaukee suburbs. Mr. Obama won here.

    Mr. Ryan has been talking about the ideas in the Roadmap since 2008, when he published an earlier version. During several town-hall-style meetings on a recent day, he received a few questions about Social Security and Medicare, but no pointed complaints. His plan, he tells one group, is not to end anything.

    “If we did that, my mom would kill me,” Mr. Ryan said, adding that his mother, Betty, receives Social Security.

    Later, Mr. Ryan said, “I don’t think these things are third rails anymore. People are ready for this.”

    Mr. Ryan and his allies — who admit that the Roadmap is unlikely to get a real hearing in Congress soon — say Republican colleagues who have yet to support the idea are probably following the admonitions of political consultants. But Representative Devin Nunes, Republican of California, who signed on to the Roadmap months ago, says candidates in 2012 will be forced to take a stand — up or down — on its ideas.

    “The deficit isn’t going away, the entitlements aren’t getting better, and it’s tough times out there,” Mr. Nunes said. “The presidential candidates are going to have a problem with this.”

    Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting from Washington.

    Representative Paul D. Ryan, a 12-year veteran at 40, meeting with a women’s group in June in Burlington, part of his southeastern Wisconsin

    Posted by: Patrick | August 10, 2010

    Politico.com: GOP cash woes threaten fall gains

    GOP cash woes threaten fall gains

    By: Jonathan Martin
    August 6, 2010 06:46 PM EDT
    KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The Republican National Committee is entering the fall election season with dire financial problems and, to an unprecedented degree, will be forced to rely upon outside groups to fund activities traditionally paid for by the national party.While embattled RNC Chairman Michael Steele and a top aide sought to use the party’s summer meeting here to publicly put the best face on the cash shortage, behind the scenes senior Republicans expressed grave concern that their fundraising deficiencies may be the difference between a good election year and a great one.

    With $11 million on hand as of the end of June—and about $2 million in reported debt—the RNC’s paid get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort will be limited to just targeted House races, POLITICO has learned.

    And the committee is only going to be able to spend money on those relatively inexpensive House races thanks to a $10 million line of credit that was approved at the meeting here. Until then, said one incredulous Republican, there was no money available for paid GOTV activities like mailers and automated phone calls.

    Even with the line of credit, though, the party can’t afford to assist their many gubernatorial and Senate candidates with any dollars for paid voter contact and will have to effectively outsource that operation.

    The expectation – and it’s only that because the party is barred from coordinating with third-party groups – is that the new organizations that have sprung up amid the RNC’s woes will step in to pay for such GOTV efforts in statewide contests.

    Senior Republicans are particularly hopeful that the group American Crossroads, founded in part by Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, is planning to fill the void in turnout funding.

    “You’re not going to spend $200,000 on micro-targeting if all you’re doing is TV ads,” said one top GOP operative, alluding to the money American Crossroads has spent so far to identify voters.

    POLITICO reported last month that the third-party group has hired veteran Republican strategist Carl Forti to run a micro-targeting effort and, according to a “concept paper,” would spend $15 million on “targeted grassroots advocacy” – paid voter contact.

    The RNC will, though, be able to pay for volunteer GOTV activities for the final three months, such as the costs associated with housing and enabling phone banks, and they already have 285 “Victory” offices to carry out such tasks.

    Because of laws against coordination, spokesmen for both the RNC and American Crossroads were cagey in describing their efforts.

    “We are thrilled they have joined the fight,” said RNC spokesman Doug Heye of the new groups, noting that Democrats have had effective outside groups in previous cycles while Republicans paid a price for not having any such outfits.

    “American Crossroads has said from the get-go that we’ll be active in get-out-the-vote,” said spokesman Jonathan Collegio, promising “in-depth voter contact programs in our targeted states and races.”

    But the RNC’s cash-flow problems will impact far more than just turnout operations. The RNC has given the two congressional campaign committees, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, only $2 million each so far this election cycle and top GOP officials tell POLITICO that there isn’t any more available to be transferred.

    So as Republicans try to regain control of the House and Senate, they’ll do so with only $4 million of already-spent dollars from the national committee. By contrast, in the 2006 election cycle the RNC transferred a total of over $57 million to the two campaign committees and independent expenditure efforts to help congressional candidates.

    The NRCC alone received $17 million from the RNC then. The lack of resources could especially hamper the House Republican effort this year as they are badly trailing their Democratic counterparts financially.

    At the state level, the impact of the RNC’s cash shortage is just as acute.

    Consider Ohio and Missouri. Both states had hard-fought Senate races in 2006 and will again this election. But the two state parties and their candidates will get significantly less help than they did four years ago, GOP officials tell POLITICO. Ohio got over $5 million from the RNC in 2006—the last midterm election—but is slated to get just over $1 million this year. It’ll be just as bad for Missouri, which will also get just a slice of the $5 million the state received in 2006.

    “If our ground game is not funded, it will really be tough,” said Ann Wagner, campaign chair for Senate hopeful Rep. Roy Blunt and a former Missouri GOP state chair and RNC co-chair.

    Wagner said that while she was “hopeful” that the RNC would come up with the cash, she was also counting on assistance from other groups outside the party structure.

    “It’s going to be a problem if it doesn’t come from somewhere,” she said.

    An Ohio Republican said it would have a significant impact on the party’s field operation if they got a fifth of the money they received four years ago.

    “I’m hoping that they’ll raise their commitment,” said the Republican.

    Asked about concerns from the states about the disparity between what they’re getting this year compared to previous years, Steele declined to answer the question.

    “Let’s stop that, it’s not true,” he insisted to reporters here. “Were you watching the presentation?”

    Steele was alluding to RNC Chief of Staff Mike Leavitt’s PowerPoint-equipped speech to committee members here Friday morning in which he stressed what they had raised, not had currently available, and repeatedly noted that the party didn’t have a president to help them raise money this year.

    Yet as Republicans privately gripe about the committee’s fiscal straits and blame it partly on the rocky stewardship of Steele, there was little appetite here to take after the already-embattled chairman.

    Even critics of the gaffe-prone Steele said the final months before such a promising election was not the time to litigate his tenure.

    John Sununu, the former New Hampshire governor and the state’s current GOP chair, stood up at a private breakfast on Thursday morning here with Steele present and said that with about 90 days until the election Republicans ought not be trying to hurt the chairman.

    That’s because, Sununu said, according to multiple sources in the room, Steele does a pretty good job of hurting himself.

    The comment was said somewhat light-heartedly, but it reflects the consensus among high-level GOP officials: avoid criticizing Steele between now and Election Day and make the best of a difficult situation.

    Financially, that means turning to alternate entities to boost Republican candidates.

    “You’ve got to look at the complete picture,” said Mississippi GOP Committeeman Henry Barbour, citing the strong fundraising from groups such as American Crossroads, the Norm Coleman-and-Fred Malek-led American Action Network and the Republican Governors Association. “They’ll help make up any gap that may be there.”

    Plus, Barbour noted the more favorable terrain on which the GOP is running this year.

    “You always want more money but I’ll take momentum and the climate over more money any time,” agreed Massachusetts GOP Committeeman Ron Kaufman.

    But if the GOP comes close but falls just short of recapturing control of the House—widely seen as the more likely of the two chambers to flip—it’ll be in part because they didn’t have the cash.

    “Those last 10 or 15 seats [that would hand Republicans the House majority] come down to cash,” said a senior GOP operative. “And the way we’re going now we could be two-point losers instead of one-point winners.”

    © 2010 Capitol News Company, LLC


    Apple And Google Set To Capitalize (And Compete) On Internet TV
    Laurie Sullivan, Aug 16, 2010 06:01 PM
    Piper Jaffray/set top-internet tv

    Connected TVs and set-top devices enabling consumers to view video from across the Internet on TVs could ultimately drive online video ads and marketing content budgets. The online video ad segment should grow at a 39% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) during the next five years, becoming a more than $5 billion market by 2014, estimates analyst firm Piper Jaffray, which released a series of reports Monday related to IPTV.

    The slow shift of consumers spending more time with online video has already begun. The report explains some private video advertising networks admit to securing at least seven-figure budgets from major TV advertisers. Ad networks like Tremor, and those producing proprietary content like Adconion or BBE, could benefit from the transition. The bottom line, according to Piper Jaffray analysts, points to numerous Internet companies like Apple, Google and Yahoo, as well as Rovi, also capitalizing on this move.

    Expect Google TV to comprise about 15% of the connected TVs by 2013, rising to 18% by 2014, according to Piper Jaffray. Intel’s CE4100 SoC and Google’s Android operating system is the technology platform that Sony and Logitech will build into products and release in the fall. Other set-top boxes, media players and TV makers have Google TV products slated for the first quarter in 2011.

    Google’s share of connected TV devices will contribute to about 32 million units in 2010, reaching 180 million units in four years, but Piper Jaffray analyst believe the Mountain View, Calif., tech company will have competition from Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple.

    Apple tried to launch Apple TV in March 2007, but the box failed to catch on. A Piper Jaffray white paper describes a data center in Maiden, NC that the company’s analysts believe could serve as the main control room for a cloud-based service for iTunes video. A growing family of connected Apple devices it makes sense Apple would deliver a cloud-based media service to leverage the lineup of connected devices, from iPhone to iPad to iPod Touch to Apple TV to Macs.

    As part of this move, analysts at Piper Jaffray expect Apple to update Apple TV with limited storage, lower price, and focus on accessing content from the Internet and on a local network. It then becomes a stepping-stone to an all-in-one connected television. The move could position Apple to enter the television market with a connected-HDTV in the next two to four years, along with full content services.

    Piper Jaffray estimates of the 220 million flat panel TVs that will sell in 2012, about 65%, or 143 million units, will become Internet-connected. Of those, Apple could sell 1.4 million units, contributing 3% to revenue in 2012.

    The white paper hypothesizes about solutions to Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ challenges related to Apple TV. Create an all-in-one, connected TV that does not require an extra box, for starters. Then launch an Internet-based iTunes TV Pass at $50-$90 per month. These products could replace a consumer’s monthly $85 cable bill and offer access to a variety of select shows on premium channels. Additionally, this hurdle could be solved with the addition of an App Store for the TV, offering apps like Hulu Plus available today for consumers with an iPhone or an iPad, and TV content through Hulu for $10 per month.

    The ad-based Internet video will likely become the choice model to generate revenue because consumers view it as being close to the traditional TV viewing experience, according to the report. Piper Jaffray analysts expect ad -based services will capture margins between 20% and 25%. Hulu, for example, commands a significant premium cost per thousand ad views (CPM) vs. traditional broadcast TV. While these rates vary, depending on content and time of broadcast, the analysts firm estimates the average broadcast TV CPM is approximately $15, while Hulu’s average CPM is more than $25.

    Recently launched Hulu Plus, a $9.99 per month subscription service for additional ad-based content on Hulu, represents a hybrid subscription or ad-based model that could also provide on-the-go mobile or TV-based access to online video content.

    Similar to Piper Jaffray, analyst at Parks Associates believe advertising, including delivery and analytics, provides Google with enormous potential. But in a white paper released in June, Park Associates analysts point to troubled television manufacturers trying to determine how big their share of potential revenue for online content will become.

    To date, the business models between television manufacturers and content providers or aggregators have been revenue sharing based on online video orders. As a result, the TV manufacturer may get a few pennies per video on demand orders. Online video revenues on connected CE devices other than the game console could reach $180 million in 2010, reaching $800 million by 2014.

    Other concerns Park Associates highlights includes the ability to search and discover, and how much high-quality content Google can actually contribute through YouTube.

    chart

    Get To The Point from MarketingProfs

    Old Spice Guy’s Viral Coup: How He Did It

    From July 13 to 14, “Old Spice Guy” (towel-clad spokesman Isaiah Mustafah) responded to users’ Old Spice references at YouTube. Short YouTube video clips featured OSG charming users with witty repartee. Links to the videos appeared on Twitter like that.The resulting user stats were impressive: Upload views at YouTube, over 83 million; subscribers to the YouTube channel. over 140,000; Twitter followers, 92,000; Facebook Likes, 686,000. Now, that’s a lot of listening fans!

    How did Old Spice (and agency Wieden + Kennedy) score this multimedia coup? Here are the key ingredients that made this campaign a mega-winner:

    A brave, playful strategy. Old Spice hails back to the 1930s. Observing the ironic attitude of modern man, it inversed its persona, creating a Manly Man so impossibly smug (yet so self-deprecating) that he was lovable.

    Relinquishing of content. Appropriations (and imitations) of its “The Man Your Man Could Smell Like” ad appeared in droves (case in point). Users were inspired, having fun. Old Spice let them be—allowing word about its content to spread.

    Acknowledging users while staying true to the original ad. Its decision to have Mustafa answer questions worked because people love acknowledgement. The material was also thoughtful and well-written without breaking the universe created around OSG; there he was, in the bathroom!

    Clever use of media (Twitter, YouTube). Inspired media morphs made the content a medium in itself. Observe: a marriage proposal via OSG. (We’d totally say yes!)

    Continuing the discussion. The effort couldn’t last forever, but the goodbye was epic and well-timed. To ease separation anxiety, Old Spice launched a second TV ad featuring Mustafa. And users who still want to play with OSG can do so on Facebook and Twitter.

    The Po!nt: You, too, can enjoy the sweet smell of success. Brands still have the power to create beloved icons and spark crowd love. The key these days is to give folks the chance to build it with you.

    Looking for great social media marketing data? MarketingProfs reviewed hundreds of research sources to create our most recent Social Media Marketing Factbook (May 2010). With 140 pages and 102 charts, it is full of relevant social media marketing stats and trends. The Social Media Marketing Factbook is Part 5 of the complete Digital Marketing Factbook (our 296-page full report).

    Posted by: Patrick | November 8, 2010

    NYTimes.com: The Unready Republicans

    Interesting take on the challenge the GOP will have in the near term to build credibility with the very voters who held their noses in many ways and voted for them over the current majority in DC.

    I’m cautiously suspicious myself and want to see definitive steps on behalf of the new GOP leadership that they can govern conservatively and not just campaign on conservative slogans.  What say you??

    Patrick

    ============

    November 7, 2010
    By ROSS DOUTHAT

    When a political party suffers two consecutive thrashings at the polls, its supporters can usually look forward to a long period of exile — a time to lick wounds, settle scores, feud over policy and gradually map out a road back to relevance.

    Not so the Obama-era Republicans. They were thumped in 2006 and left for dead after 2008, but all it took was a 9.6 unemployment rate and an unpopular liberal majority to bring them roaring back. The wilderness era lasted all of 22 months: conservatives had barely started arguing about what went wrong during the Bush era before the American public handed them the House of Representatives again.

    To his credit, John Boehner, the presumptive speaker of the House, seems aware of how little the Republicans have done to earn their summons back to power. His rhetoric since last Tuesday’s sweep has been self-effacing, and his promises have been limited and largely procedural. Newt Gingrich took power in 1994 claiming a mandate and brandishing a list of legislative priorities, but Boehner has kept his cards closer to the vest. “It is the president who sets the agenda for our government,” he told supporters on Tuesday night — not the kind of statement, to put it mildly, that leading Republicans issued in ’94.

    The modest Mr. Boehner leads a party with much to be modest about. Gingrich could brandish an agenda because he had an agenda — a raft of conservative policy proposals, on welfare and crime and taxes, that couldn’t get any traction in a Democratic-controlled Congress. Today’s Republicans, by contrast, know what they’re against (the health care bill, tax increases, cap and trade) but have a world of trouble saying what they might actually be for.

    Instead, they tend to fall back on the reassuring story they’ve been spinning for the last two years, in which they lost to the Democrats only because they failed to hold the line on spending. It’s a narrative that flatters conservative self-regard, while absolving Republicans of the obligation to think too deeply about policy. All they need to do is say “no” to bigger government, and the rest will take care of itself.

    This strategy has worked for them in opposition, thanks to the Democratic Party’s haste and hubris. But it isn’t a blueprint for governance, and it ducks the real reasons that the Republicans lost their majority. While the Bush administration overspent, it wasn’t spending and deficits that turned the country against conservative domestic policy between 2004 and 2008. It was the fact that the Republican majority seemed to have no answers to Middle America’s economic struggles, and no appetite for the structural reforms required to keep the United States competitive.

    This is even more true today. The United States is facing three overlapping crises — the short-term challenge of a jobless recovery, the long-term crisis of entitlement spending and, in the medium term, an economy that wasn’t delivering for the middle class even before the financial crisis struck. The Democratic Party may have the wrong answers to these problems. But the Republican Party as an institution often seems to have no answers whatsoever.

    Some individual Republicans make a better showing. Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana, has a proposal for payroll tax relief that might help jump-start economic growth. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman, has his famous “roadmap” to a sustainable entitlement system. Judd Gregg, the outgoing Republican senator from New Hampshire, was collaborating with Ron Wyden, the Oregon Democrat, on tax reform that could attract bipartisan support. And during the health care and financial reform debates, the pages of conservative magazines bristled with plausible alternatives to the Democratic bills.

    Yet the party hasn’t united around any of these ideas. And what consensus does exist is insufficient to the nation’s challenges. The country needs fundamental tax reform rather than the permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts. It needs a health care overhaul that doesn’t merely return the system to the pre-Obamacare status quo. It needs a plan to slow the growth of Social Security and Medicare, not just a discretionary spending freeze.

    On many of these fronts, Congressional Republicans will protest that there’s nothing to be done so long as Barack Obama occupies the White House. Hence Boehner’s calculated attempt to lower expectations; hence Mitch McConnell’s insistence that the most important thing Republicans can do is work toward the president’s defeat in 2012.

    But even if they’re right, that’s all the more reason to spend the next two years getting serious about policy. It will profit neither conservatism nor the country if Republicans take the White House two Novembers hence, and find themselves as unprepared to govern as they are today.

    BusinessWeek Logo  

    Dan Schawbel October 5, 2010, 2:07PM EST text size: TT

    Social-Networking Your Way to a New Job

    Three steps to connecting with the right people and finding and leveraging the data you need via social networks, such as Twitter and LinkedIn

    By Dan Schawbel

    Think of the Internet as the 21st century global talent pool. To compete and secure a job, you need to have an online presence, manage it effectively, and cater to your network. Instead of submitting your résumé to job boards, classified ads, and corporate websites, take a different approach. The Internet has created a level playing field where you can connect directly with hiring managers or people who can refer you to new jobs. Instead of actually submitting your résumé to job boards, use job boards to search online for information about companies and positions you’re interested in. The more you can target specific companies, positions, and locations, the more time you’ll save.

    Decide on a career path, and then construct an online presence so that hiring managers can locate information about you. Being found online can save you time and energy and get you employed faster. Your online presence should be, at a minimum, a website or a blog under your full name and profiles on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook. This way, you will appear where hiring managers are searching for you or for people with your expertise. You will also have more control over how other people perceive you. Your profile information should be consistent: Use the same name, picture, and biographical information across your sites. Once your profiles are flawless, you’re ready to “people search.”

    Here is a three-step method for finding your dream job using social networks:

    1. Start with a handshake on Twitter.

    Twitter is extremely effective for one-to-one networking, because it puts you in a public setting where people feel comfortable. Make sure to fill out your Twitter profile completely, including a custom background and at least 10 tweets with quotes, ideas, and links to relevant articles in your industry. Then proceed to Twellow.com and using keywords, search for employees who work at companies that interest you. Once you locate the top five to 10 people with whom you want to form relationships, follow them, and then add them to a new Twitter list called Job Search.

    Spend time each day reading the tweets on your list, commenting on them using a hash tag—the “@” symbol and person’s account name. This way, the people you want to network with will see your name, face, and correspondence. The more you communicate with them, without being annoying, the more they will familiarize themselves with you, and then the relationships start. Eventually you will pique your contacts’ interest enough so they’ll follow you. This will enable you to send them direct messages: private communications between the two of you.

    In your direct message, state that you’re interested in further communication through LinkedIn and provide your e-mail address. Chances are that a few of them will respond, and you can now take the relationship to the more professional environment of LinkedIn.

    2. Get professional on LinkedIn.

    After you connect with strategic contacts on LinkedIn, review their profiles thoroughly until you have a solid understanding of their work experience and their current job responsibilities. Then look through their contact databases so you’re familiar with the people they know at their companies; you can use that information to get introductions later. If a certain contact isn’t in your exact profession, he or she probably knows someone who is or can at least refer you. You can also see open jobs at the contact’s company by conducting searches through LinkedIn. This will make you more knowledgeable when you’re communicating with him or her later.

    If this person requested the connection through LinkedIn, send a note explaining you would like to find out more about what he or she does. Depending on your contact’s preference, you may want to communicate with each other via personal e-mail rather than LinkedIn’s internal e-mail system.

    3. Take contacts offline.

    The whole point of using social networks in your job search is to connect with hiring managers without seeming too intrusive. Once you’ve done that, you need to bring these contacts offline for a phone call or in-person meeting. Networking in real life will always trump the digital world. When you get your new contacts on the phone, ask them about what they do and what the company is like to work at—before sending your résumé.

    You have to sound enthusiastic, which should come easily because you’ve been selective about which companies and people to deal with while job searching. Don’t try to overpromote yourself in the first phone call or meeting. Let your résumé speak for your achievements and try to learn as much as possible from them. Remember that social networks can help you get a job as long as you aren’t afraid to connect with strangers and turn online connections into offline relationships.

    Dan Schawbel is a personal branding consultant and author of Me 2.0: 4 Steps to Building Your Future and the publisher of Personal Branding Blog and Personal Branding Magazine. The New York Times called Schawbel a “personal branding guru.” He is also a speaker and managing partner of Millennial Branding, a branding company that serves individuals and corporations. Recently he was named to Inc. magazine’s 30 Under 30 list.

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